post #1 of 55
6/20/05 at 10:34pm
Originally Posted by samiam95124
There is no doubt that hd-dvd has the price advantage. The equipment to press out standard DVDs is
incredibly wide spread, including presses sold on Ebay (which also probally goes a long way toward
thieft). All of this will give hd-dvd an early start, plus, it has the advantage of, well, an early start.
The rest will depend on Toshiba outperforming and outmanuvering Sony at every step. Mpeg-4
faster than Sony, more layers faster.
If they do that, they could well kill BD forever, recall that VHS was inferior technology to Betamax.
However, and its a big however, Sony is going to *KILL* HD-DVD in the computer storage market,
that is, if HD-DVD even shows up in computer storage at all. The alternative to the HD-DVD takes
it all, and what I think is likely, is that Sony takes the computer storage market, and outperforms
the HD-DVD for capacity in all respects, layers and density, while pushing prerecorded discs
as well. Then BD takes over as the "new superbit" HD-DVD later this decade.
 DVD-R/W and DVD+R/W fought it out with basically equal byte capacity, which won't be true in
a BD to HD-DVD matchup. Also, writeable drives don't tend to go to multiple layers as quickly,
leaving BD, again, ahead in capacity.
 Although Toshiba is talking about lots of layers, Sony's thiner media requirements have
an inherent advantage for any "layer war" that would come about.
Originally Posted by waltchan
I predict that Toshiba will win the HD-DVD format. Here's why:
|Most people with HDTV's that know about a format war, will wait to see which format is "better". After seeing Blu-Ray's capacity and computer storage market, consumers could flock to Blu-Ray and leave HD-DVD in the dust.|
|VHS was inferior technology to Betamax.|
|False. People don't care about space unless we're talking about recording.|
|Only us video geeks care whether a DVD is 4.7GB or 8.5GB DL.|
|Blu-Ray isn't guaranteed to win on the computer front as well. There are a few companies squawking about hi-capacity optical formats.|
|I will default to the real important metric and that is price. Whichever format demonstrably proves its lower TCO is going to be the fans favorites.|
|Thus the pregenitor of this thread is correct in saying that HD-DVD may just have an advantage should China be able to produce HD-DVD for cheap.|
Originally Posted by AnthonyP
no it was not, it had inferior PQ but was superior in all other ways and all the other ways whas what people chose. To consumers, I am guessing, HD-DVD will have no advantage over BR and so to anyone that cares about anything (recording time, PQ, movie length, less disks where you need to get up half way through a movie to change disk.....) BR has an advantage. To the guy that goes to the store with 1000$ and says put anything in the cart HD-DVD might do. But there is no reason anyone in the store looking at BR and HD-DVD will see anything to make him say put the HD-DVD in the cart. That was not true for Beta versus VHS
Originally Posted by waltchan
And don't forget that Toshiba usually have their products priced at a lower cost than what Sony do.
|But if the consumer is looking at the two and doesn't see any difference in picture and sound quality between the two, but HD-DVD is cheaper, HD-DVD is going to win out. Unless of course the blind lead the blind|
|If you are talking capacity (hours) VHS didn't get that until later. The original "long play"option for VHS was done by DROPPING every other frame of the video into the trash can,a stupid pet trick that could have easily been done with Beta as well.|
|And don't forget that Toshiba usually have their products priced at a lower cost than what Sony do.|
Originally Posted by cwilson
Remember that a company sets its prices on the basis of what the customer will pay, not on its manufacturing costs plus markup. So if there are both BR and HD-DVD disks available, they will probably be exactly the same price, assuming that the picture and sound quality are pretty comparable. There may be a little more profit for HD-DVD in the beginning, but BR will obviously match their prices for both hardware and software. So there won't be any consumer price advantage to HD-DVD. As someone pointed out, BD will almost certainly have a future in data storage, regardless of how the DVD wars play out, so it's not going away.
|so the Question is how fast will the prices of blu-ray fall, to compete with HD-dvd and then when will the prices for blu-ray beat out HD-dvd.|
Originally Posted by space2001
here is something that I think makes sense.
More manufactueres are making blu-ray players, more machines getting crated means the prices will drop.
Toshiba Sanyo, NEC, don't have to many players that will be out on the market which means that there prices will take longer to fall since the manufacturing will not be as high as blu-ray.
so the Question is how fast will the prices of blu-ray fall, to compete with HD-dvd and then when will the prices for blu-ray beat out HD-dvd.
|It is NOT obvious that Blu-Ray will match HD-DVD or vice versa.|
|All we have now is theoretical production costs, soon we'll truly know what these things cost and the race will be on.|
|Producing the hardware is going to be trivial and to date very few companies have given any exclusives.|
Originally Posted by cwilson
I suspect that the actual cost of producing a Blu-Ray disk will be very close to that of producing an HD-DVD disk - if you disregard the cost of the equipment. In other words, since the current DVD-producing equipment can be modified fairly cheaply to output HD-DVD disks, and the BR disk-producing hardware will have to be manufactured mostly from scratch, the outlay to studios and such will be considerably more with BR, which means that HD-DVD offers them some financial advantages in the short term. Amortized over the lifespan of the equipment, probably not a huge difference in price per unit produced.
But doesn't most of the price from DVD sales go to the studios, the manufacturers, and the sales force? Maybe somebody knows what the usual breakdown is. My guess is that if you pay $15 for a DVD, isn't the cost of producing it less than a dollar? Maybe a quarter or less? The rest goes to the studio, the distributor, the seller, and so on. If the cost of manufacturing a disk is less that a dollar, the price difference to the customer would be almost insignificant, even disregarding the fact that competition will keep the cost of a disk competitive.
I have no direct knowledge of the finances involved. These conclusions just seem logical. Please set me straight if I'm assuming facts not in evidence.
|the outlay to studios and such will be considerably more with BR, which means that HD-DVD offers them some financial advantages in the short term.|
|Amortized over the lifespan of the equipment, probably not a huge difference in price per unit produced.|
|Maybe somebody knows what the usual breakdown is. My guess is that if you pay $15 for a DVD, isn't the cost of producing it less than a dollar? Maybe a quarter or less?|
|If the cost of manufacturing a disk is less that a dollar, the price difference to the customer would be almost insignificant, even disregarding the fact that competition will keep the cost of a disk competitive.|
Originally Posted by Rachael Bellomy
I think ya'all that's posting about this alleged format war sure are optimistic about both formats chances, IMO! I think the reality is this could be a format war over a minority market.