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Blu-ray - The Emperor's New Clothes? - Page 3  

post #61 of 255
I noticed the same article in arstechnica.com.

Hong.
post #62 of 255
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickmarquardt

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert
Welcome to the forum, Rick. If you ever have the time or the inclination, I would like to know your erudite and historical outlook (on a separate thread if appropriate) on the undoubtedly insurmountable concerns that justified WAMO's staunch defense for several years of the much-loathed snapper case as preferred form of DVD packaging against the vocal wishes of the public.
Corpoate secret
Why am I not surprised? :D
post #63 of 255
all signs point towards desperation. it speaks volumes about how much trouble hd-dvd is in i'm afraid.
post #64 of 255
Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

(3) All studio support

We're three simple studio decisions away from this for BD, and a long drawn out and bloody war to get to this state with HD DVD.


Gary

I think you are on to something here. We have hoped that there would be peace in the DVD world by two hardware groups agreeing to split the differences and move on. Sorry but us geeky engineers just do not think that way! But studio execs….mostly interested in $$$$. With Microsoft’s and Intel’s assertion today that HD-DVD is the best choice largely because you can COPY the media, the right play might be getting the 3 studios to understand that their interests might just be better understood over on the other side. Then as you point out, all of the rest of this becomes irrelevant
post #65 of 255
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToddD
With Microsoft’s and Intel’s assertion today that HD-DVD is the best choice largely because you can COPY the media, the right play might be getting the 3 studios to understand that their interests might just be better understood over on the other side. Then as you point out, all of the rest of this becomes irrelevant
As I just replied to you, and post in the crazy thread elsewhere a while back, the largest three studios in the world: Warner, Disney and Sony are all members of AACS and have all signed off on mandatory managed copy. So the angle you are chasing here is a dead end.

Studios understand the value that managed copy brings to consumers in various ways. One is to make sure that people don't stay with the current DVD because they can copy that one and not the next gen (with its better copy protection). Second is that they need to pile on as many features as they can to convince the customer to buy into this new format. Third, AACS is a collective set of compromises/features that the three industries, IT, CE and Studios could agree to. One can not take some of the features out without upsetting the entire spec.

Amir
Microsoft
post #66 of 255
Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf
Wouldn't BD offer opportunities for new or smaller replicators to grow? Concentrating on BD, and not battling in the ultra competitive DVD world, would seem to be an advantage. Gary
Quite the opposite in fact. The huge capital investment in equipment that can only be used for BD means that NO small replicators have the money to even try. All of the replicators setting up BD (with one exception) are giants.
post #67 of 255
Quote:
Originally Posted by Palladin
Y' know,

If I was one of those suspicious sorts, I would find it a curious and quite remarkable coincidence that on the very eve of MSFT's and Intel's public announcement to throw their collective weight behind HD-DVD, a new member shows up to post a white paper which is highly supportive of HD-DVD, who is then vouched for by one of the very top execs at MSFT that has only met him at a dinner once, but is nevertheless absolutely comvinced that this new member should be welcomed, respected and taken as authoritative because he has more information about optical disks in his little pinky than all of the members at this forum (including presumably, that MSFT exec) combined.


So thank goodness, I am fortunate enough not to be one of those suspicious sorts, because I hate to think what conclusions I might draw about how this result seems to have been orchestrated far in advance under the circumstances, and that "official" positions are generally synonymous with "meaningless".
I am SO glad you are not one of those suspicious sorts. Because I can tell you that Rick Marquardt:

"Has more information about manufacturing optical disks in his little pinky than all of the posting members at this forum (including that MSFT exec) combined."

How do I know him? Well lets just say that one of my most prized possessions is a plaque labeled "First Warner Home Video DVD Disc".

Thats why I like to fell out of my chair when I saw him first post.
post #68 of 255
Quote:
Originally Posted by shore
Quite the opposite in fact. The huge capital investment in equipment that can only be used for BD means that NO small replicators have the money to even try. All of the replicators setting up BD (with one exception) are giants.
Then they can't afford DVD and HD-DVD lines either. They aren't in the replication business if they can't afford replication equipment.

Gary
post #69 of 255
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf
Welcome aboard Rick. You are a brave man, I'll give you that. :D

Most consumers don't care about the replication costs. And the HD premium would reduce that further.
Many of the studios have publically stated they aren't worried about BD replication costs.
You say the optical media equipment makers would prefer BD.

So are you're saying we should concentrate exclusively on the finances of the ESTABLISHED replicators in all this?

Wouldn't BD offer opportunities for new or smaller replicators to grow? Concentrating on BD, and not battling in the ultra competitive DVD world, would seem to be an advantage.



And how does worrying about the other issues you raise in your paper lead naturally to getting HD right? Making a disc for 80 cents less than BD -> The better consumer experience?

Getting HD right, for the CONSUMER involves, IMHO:

(1) Lot's of consumer equipment selection

BD will win here by a long shot. Simple CE numbers.

(2) Many titles and good features

HD DVD had the upper hand last December, and has since self-distructed.

If this format is so damn cheap and easy to do, where is it?! If the replicators support your position, why don't they start flooding the marketplace with lots of HD DVD titles?

Let's see the HD DVD companies put some discs where their mouth is.

(3) All studio support

We're three simple studio decisions away from this for BD, and a long drawn out and bloody war to get to this state with HD DVD.

Because it would rediculously foolish to think the BDA and the BD movie studios are going to capitulate at this point, aren't you pushing for a format war?

And what is your opinion on the PS/3 factor, and its potential positive affect on the launching of a new format?

Gary
Gary,

My opinions are about the physical disc.

Why is there not a single BR manufacturing line operating that a major disc manufacturer or computor company or movie studio can take a statistically relevent sample size of discs over multiple days of run time and measure the critical physical variables at multiple disc locations and calculate if that process is stable and that the data's six-sigma peak to peak is inside the spec limits? And then to remeasure and calculate after exposure to environmental testing conditions used for all consumer used optical media.

I have personally met and asked many BR major supporters if they have access or have witnessed the above. All have said no.

If a manufacturing process is not stable and in control, the issue is not about cost, it is about the high probability that there will be failures at the consumer level.

I am simply asking for prudent due diligence for a physical format that must be very robust and stand up to the same abuses we consumers give optical media today.


Rick
post #70 of 255
Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf
Then they can't afford DVD and HD-DVD lines either. They aren't in the replication business if they can't afford replication equipment.

Gary
They already have the DVD replication lines. If they buy HD-DVD lines they can use them for their DVD business. Blu-ray lines cannot be used for DVD and just set idle if you don't have Blu-ray business.

Understand this. A lot of small replicators bought DVD lines when it first came out. A lot of small replicators then lost money waiting for business that was slow to materialize. Those that survived will not be buying any next generation equipment this time around unless the cost to do so is low.
post #71 of 255
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickmarquardt
Gary,

My opinions are about the physical disc.

Why is there not a single BR manufacturing line operating that a major disc manufacturer or computor company or movie studio can take a statistically relevent sample size of discs over multiple days of run time and measure the critical physical variables at multiple disc locations and calculate if that process is stable and that the data's six-sigma peak to peak is inside the spec limits? And then to remeasure and calculate after exposure to environmental testing conditions used for all consumer used optical media.

I have personally met and asked many BR major supporters if they have access or have witnessed the above. All have said no.

If a manufacturing process is not stable and in control, the issue is not about cost, it is about the high probability that there will be failures at the consumer level.

I am simply asking for prudent due diligence for a physical format that must be very robust and stand up to the same abuses we consumers give optical media today.


Rick

Panasonic among others announced this awhile ago .

http://www.cdfreaks.com/news2.php?ID=11857

Quote:
Hollywood, CA – May 25, 2005 – Broad acceptance and adoption of Blu-ray Disc has led to the maturation of the complete disc manufacturing process. Having multiple companies involved with each step has contributed to process improvements and cost efficiencies that bring the long-term cost of manufacturing BD-ROM discs in line with current DVD replication costs.

“There are a lot of companies trying to stake out a position in various aspects of BD-ROM manufacturing,†said Kazuhiro Tsuga, executive officer of Matsushita Electric. “As a result, we are seeing multitudes of improvements in processes and technology, as well as the effects of economies of scale that make replication extremely cost effective.â€

The most recent advances come in the area of cover-layer technology, where one of two approaches (film bonding and spin coating) can be used to apply the 0.1mm cover-layer used in Blu-ray Disc.

The spin-coating process, which uses resin to form the cover-layer, is now being piloted in Torrance, California by Panasonic, who in cooperation with Origin Electric, has developed replication technology and equipment for the mass production of spin-coated discs.

In film bonding, the development of new extruded film technology by several leaders in the chemical industry has significantly reduced film costs. A new film product from Teijin reduces the cost of the cover film to one-third of the cost of conventional polycarbonate materials, and Degussa, a new BDA member company, projects a single-digit Euro cents per-disc cost at launch. In addition to these advances in film materials, Lintec Corporation’s hard coat material and film bonding process makes the film bonding method very efficient.

With the improvements in cover-layer technology, and in preparation for mass production of BD-ROM discs, Singulus Technologies, a leading manufacturer of replication equipment, has developed replication systems that will target cycle times towards three seconds. Yields are expected to exceed 90 % in a full-scale, mass production environment.

Sony has developed equipment to streamline the disc mastering process by reducing the eleven steps currently used in DVD mastering to five for BD-ROM. This mastering process, Phase Transition Mastering (PTM), requires as little as one-fifth of the space required for DVD mastering and the equipment can be configured to allow mastering of both BD-ROM and DVD-ROM on a single system. The first two commercial machines are for Technicolor and Cinram for Q2, 2005 installation.

With these developments in the industry, replication facilities in the United States are setting up and preparing to mass produce BD-ROM Discs. Technicolor is establishing a complete pilot BD disc manufacturing process by July 2005. Cinram already has a pilot replication line that produced demo discs for CES 2005 and is awaiting the delivery of commercial lines.

“Fox is pleased to see the increasing number of technology companies and materials vendors committing to Blu-ray implementation, which is reducing costs to promising levels through technological breakthroughs and innovation,†said Danny Kaye, SVP Technology and Research Strategy at Twentieth Century Fox. “We look forward to continued technological progress along with developments in content protection.â€

In addition to ramping up for mass production of the 50GB discs that will be available at format launch, Blu-ray has begun work to ensure that the format continues to grow as high-definition technology evolves. Blu-ray companies have successfully demonstrated 200GB discs in a laboratory environment and are poised to further expand the format’s capacity as needs dictate.
post #72 of 255
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by erdega79
Panasonic among others announced this awhile ago .

http://www.cdfreaks.com/news2.php?ID=11857

There are many processes that prove out in a lab, but, they are not mass manufacturable to the robustness needed for consumer optical media. I am just looking for some data.
post #73 of 255
Quote:
Originally Posted by erdega79
Panasonic among others announced this awhile ago .

http://www.cdfreaks.com/news2.php?ID=11857
This is just a list of different BD companies and partners saying we'll be able to accomplish this and that when the time comes. I believe Rick's point is that they need to put up or shut up.

Question for anyone more knowledgable than me: Has 25GB replication been verified at true production capacities?
post #74 of 255
Quote:
I noticed the same article in arstechnica.com.
so did I. You know, got to get that FUD machine rolling

BR will be extremely expensive, get studios/replicators to think twice about5 get customers worried about the final cost….
post #75 of 255
Quote:
Amir has always been a great and appreciated contributor here.
I will agree with that. On the other hand what Amir said

Quote:
What's more, I suspect the $150K cost for new line will reduce to zero when HD DVD gets into full production.
fits precisely the definition of creative accounting.


It might nhave been a bit uncalled for, but he started by saying that "Anthony, you are really twisting words here. "

how is it twisting words pointing out that the article was comparing the new BR lines to the upgrade cost of old DVD lines to HD-DVD lines. Do all the replicators have idle DVD lines jus waiting to use them for something? Any article that would try to be objective or informative should have new HD-DVD lines in there as well.

Even if a company decided to look at upgrading a DVD line the price should not just be the upgrade cost because there is the cost that the line is no more used for DVD and so the rest of the amortised cost of it over its life span should be passed on to HD-DVD and be considered part of the HD-DVD upgrade cost.
post #76 of 255
I agree with Anthony on this one, as this matter has been discussed in another superduper long thread.

Even a five dollar increase in manufacturing won't see a quadruple price increase for consumers. It just means that the studios will bear the cost or they won't get into it at all.

But five dollar is a number I pulled out of my neurons. It could just be two dollars. And even then, the studios are gonna charge us five dollar increase. Would we see no increase in the price of HD-DVDs to consumers? I seriously doubt that.

All of this (Rick's article and MS and Intel's announcement) may just mean guerilla PR at work.


fuad
post #77 of 255
Quote:
All of the replicators setting up BD (with one exception) are giants.
so how many small replicators have set-up HD-DVD lines? The big studios that are the initial customers for either format and they work with giants and so only giants will have this.

I guess Gary’s question is that if I decided to start a replication company tomorrow will it cost me much more to buy BR lines and set them up or will it be almost be the same. Yes the crappy replicator that has a lot of idle DVD lines can be better off going HD-DVD, on the other hand if he had a lot of idle DVD lines chances are that there is something wrong with him in the first place and so will probably not get any HD-DVD work so who cares. Yes new HD-DVD lines can be changed into DVD and so the initial investment is not lost if HD-DVD fails while the opposite is true if they gamble on BR and it loses. But when you gamble you gamble on a winner not a loser, and the outcome is better to gamble on who you think will win then being conservative and losing less on the wrong pick
post #78 of 255
Quote:
Question for anyone more knowledgable than me: Has 25GB replication been verified at true production capacities?
I have no idea, on the other hand have not heard anything similar on the HD-DVD side. Yes there are the "it is just like DVD therefore nothing to verify" crap. But have not seen any real analysis type info, like over X months we have been replicating Y movies an hour with Z yield.

All we have are innuendos on either side. The best info on the BR side that to me indicates that there is something is that Sony and Panasonic have been running production lines for some time, but more importantly that Lion's Gate said that one of the reasons they have finally announced and decided to go BR is that now they know what it will cost them and it is less then 2$ for replicated and packaged disk (compared to .80$ for DVD). If they got a cost number I am guessing someone must have some idea of what can be done at this point
post #79 of 255
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP
All we have are innuendos on either side. The best info on the BR side that to me indicates that there is something is that Sony and Panasonic have been running production lines for some time, but more importantly that Lion's Gate said that one of the reasons they have finally announced and decided to go BR is that now they know what it will cost them and it is less then 2$ for replicated and packaged disk (compared to .80$ for DVD). If they got a cost number I am guessing someone must have some idea of what can be done at this point
The more I think about this, the more I think SL BR replication must be stable. After all, if it wasn't Sony would be in BIG trouble when it comes time to sell PS3 games.
post #80 of 255
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickmarquardt
There are many processes that prove out in a lab, but, they are not mass manufacturable to the robustness needed for consumer optical media. I am just looking for some data.
Rick, their is a big difference between wanting data and writing a 5 page attack letter against Blu-ray that seems to have suspiciously been sent around the internet.


Quote:
Originally Posted by WriteSimple
All of this (Rick's article and MS and Intel's announcement) may just mean guerilla PR at work.
I think guerilla PR would be a bit more subtle than this but I agree that either this is a staged attack or one heck of a coincidence.
post #81 of 255
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluescale
The more I think about this, the more I think SL BR replication must be stable. After all, if it wasn't Sony would be in BIG trouble when it comes time to sell PS3 games.
Sony does have a pilot line which they will probably take into production for PS3 and SPE use. The line though, is film based and as such has high cost factor (Matsushita is still working on spin coating). The line will also be capacity limitted. And something tells me Fox/Disney would not wan to use it :). So all in all, it creates a tough situation for volume roll out.

Of course, it is possible that BD studios don't plan a major roll out. If this is the case, the production costs will not be a major hit to them. But the format will not thrive either.

Finally, I and others firmly believe that many PS3 games will be red laser based. Independent game developers have no love to sink money to promote BD. If they don't need the capacity (or desire to wait in line behind Sony titles :)), they will go another way.

Amir
post #82 of 255
This is a facinating discusion, but mostly moot, I think. Cost of mfg is not a factor, if there is no content.

Exibit A is the Sony PSP with it's new media: The UMD. Sony is the both the hardware mfg and content provider, and they have a huge distrubution network in place.

Those improbable little movie disks (low res, no stand-alone players, high price, non-recordable) are in every wally world and circuit megastore in town.
The UMD is "successfull" because it's available.

Fast forward 12 months, to the Sony Playstation 3. It's built to display HiDef, and comes equipped with a BluRay drive. (read-only). It most probably will be the first BluRay player most people own. I'm betting that Sony will follow it's PSP pattern, and start releasing BluRay disks of it's library by the hundreds. Every WallyMart and BestBuy will have lots of stock, because content sells players.

I don't really care who wins, but I can't see the HD DVD people marshalling the same "availability" force as Sony can.

Also, the HD DVD people have the added burden of convincing studios that they can provide DRM that works, so studios wont risk releasing HiDef copies of content into "the wild". Sony does not have that problem, they ARE the studio.

If certain movies are not available on HDDVD, but ARE on bluRay, it won't be long before HDDVD gets a rep as the Beta of the two.
I think Sony learned from Beta and Minidisc.
Game over, HDDVD.

However;

I think BOTH these media are shadowed by DRM. If the DRM is heavy-handed and inflexible, there is no point in "investing" in either format.

The first time some BluRay player refuses to play a perfectly legit disk, because the "rights management" is not in order, well.....

With upscaling DVD players, and the availability of HiDef PPV and DVR boxes, there is no urgency to move to either format. DVD to HiDef is not the same leap in quality as VHS to DVD was.
post #83 of 255
Oops. Missed this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by shore
I am SO glad you are not one of those suspicious sorts. Because I can tell you that Rick Marquardt:

"Has more information about manufacturing optical disks in his little pinky than all of the posting members at this forum (including that MSFT exec) combined."

How do I know him? Well lets just say that one of my most prized possessions is a plaque labeled "First Warner Home Video DVD Disc".

Thats why I like to fell out of my chair when I saw him first post.
Wow, I bet that plaque’s going to be worth a lot of money on E-bay someday. :confused:

Hey, BTW, I really like the way you quoted my post while deftly and completely side-stepping the issue it raised. I’m also still uncertain as to the extent of Rick’s involvement/incentive in this whole thing. Maybe as a self-described industry insider, you can clarify it a little? :)

________________________________________________
Palladin

Chance favors the prepared mind
post #84 of 255
Quote:
Sony does have a pilot line which they will probably take into production for PS3 and SPE use. The line though, is film based and as such has high cost factor (Matsushita is still working on spin coating). The line will also be capacity limitted. And something tells me Fox/Disney would not wan to use it . So all in all, it creates a tough situation for volume roll out.
you forgot that Panasonic has their own replication line to show their replication tech and that at least one replicator Cinram said that they already bought a BR replication line. So it will most definitely not be running on one Sony line.

Quote:
Finally, I and others firmly believe that many PS3 games will be red laser based. Independent game developers have no love to sink money to promote BD. If they don't need the capacity (or desire to wait in line behind Sony titles ), they will go another way.
I agree that not all PS3 games (at least for the time being) will be on BR. The PS3 can use DVD and CD as well. I think Sony will most likely try and get a couple of games for launch but I also think it is possible that all initial games will be on DVD
post #85 of 255
Quote:
Originally Posted by spindoctor
If certain movies are not available on HDDVD, but ARE on bluRay, it won't be long before HDDVD gets a rep as the Beta of the two.
The same is true on both saide. What happens when people what to buy Batman Returns for their Blu-Ray Player? What happens when people want to buy Spider-Man 2 for their HD-DVD player? That, of course, is the reason everyone wants to stay out of a format war.
post #86 of 255
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP
you forgot that Panasonic has their own replication line to show their replication tech and that at least one replicator Cinram said that they already bought a BR replication line. So it will most definitely not be running on one Sony line.
I didn't forget because Panasonic is not in replication business :). They sold that business already and have no intention of re-entering it again. What Panasonic has is a pilot (laboratory) line trying to see if spin coating can be used instead of film process Sony is using. The last interview they gave showed a direct quote of them saying no test data was available. This confirms what Rick said here earlier about lack of data to prove manufacturability. I am pretty sure if they had conquered spin coating, we would know all about it by now.

As to Cinram, as you say, they simply announced that they bought the equipment. Having new untested gear is one thing, making discs in volume is another. They still have to go through the learning curve even if we assume the equipment works.

Amir
post #87 of 255
Bluescale: I think you need to read the whole post. Obviously what you said makes sense if all you look at is the small picture.


Yes in the beginning movies will be one or the other and not both. The problem happens when studios decide to go after lost revenue and start producing both. He (like many here) think the PS3 will be that factor and some HD-DVD studios will decide to make both relatively soon. If that happens then some movies will be available in both and some in BR only
post #88 of 255
I've seen this in other threads, but not this one.

Porn will decide the format (HD-DVD or BD).
post #89 of 255
Amir, the point was that we know there will be other replication options by the time BR launches. I am sure if there is demand Panasonic won't say "we don't want to use our line, we are not replicators" and I am sure even if Cinram does not have a line yet they will have by then. Not to mention that during that talk they did say that they were hoping for orders for both soon but none of them came in. I don't think they said if it was up and running or not, but obviously if it was just ordered at that time then they should be getting it soon if not already.
post #90 of 255
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Palladin
Oops. Missed this.



Wow, I bet that plaque’s going to be worth a lot of money on E-bay someday. :confused:

Hey, BTW, I really like the way you quoted my post while deftly and completely side-stepping the issue it raised. I’m also still uncertain as to the extent of Rick’s involvement/incentive in this whole thing. Maybe as a self-described industry insider, you can clarify it a little? :)

________________________________________________
Palladin

Chance favors the prepared mind
Palladin,

I have no financial gain for whoever wins. I have left Deluxe just recently and have taken a job with a new technology start-up company working on anti-theft models. I have some short term consulting deals to carry me over.

Rick
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