Quote:
Originally Posted by
URFloorMatt 
My guess is that 1080p24 downloads wouldn't be feasible on any remaining BPON systems, but would be possible for the newer GPON systems. I don't know what the upgrade schedule is for GPON, but it should be finished sometime next year if it's not already. Ultimately, since VOD is sent on the 1490 packet with Internet while traditional TV is sent on the 1550 packet, I don't think it technically matters whether it's MPEG2 or MPEG4, but obviously the latter would cut the size of the download significantly.
If the current HD VOD is 1080i MPEG-2 HD (averaging 16 Mbps), then MPEG-4 1080/24p (averaging 8 Mbps) would use less bandwidth than the current arrangement. So unless even a heavily underutilized BPON system would have some issue with the MPEG-4 codec itself (unlikely), then I doubt that BPON would be the issue preventing 1080p VOD. Even MPEG-2 1080p would use the same amount of bandwidth as the current MPEG-2 1080i. So it's unlikely that BPON is holding things up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
bull3964 
Quote:
Originally Posted by
URFloorMatt 
The longer they wait and the larger the footprint grows, the harder and more expensive it will become.
I'm not sure if that's really the case now if they've depleted their supply of 6xxx boxes since any new box that they deploy is going to be MPEG4 capable and they aren't exactly bringing new VHOs online that often.
It might even be easier as time goes on as people swap out the 6 series boxes for something else due to hardware failure or maybe a drive upgrade when the cisco boxes come out.
What would need to be replaced at a VHO to support MPEG-4 HD? I can think of MPEG4/MPEG-2 transconvertors. However, that only is needed if there needs to be transconverting. FOX has committed to MPEG-2 delivery of all (I think 75) of their HD channels, so if Verizon goes MPEG-4, those cross-convertors will cost a lot at all the VHO's. Will current Disney and Disney co-owned properties (including the A&E, Lifetime, and ESPN families) remain MPEG-2 exclusive? If so, that accounts for about 100 HD channels. Each headend would possibly need fewer transcoders if they remain MPEG-2, at least over the next five to ten years. I would assume that VZ would otherwise purchase equipment that could handle both MPEG-2 and MPEG-4. So assuming there's enough QAM space for MPEG-2 HD, the system doesn't necessarily need an MPEG-4 overhaul anytime soon. Additionally, Matt, you earlier said,
Quote:
Originally Posted by
URFloorMatt 
The real cost isn't in purchasing MPEG4 STBs or even installing new equipment at the head end. It will, as you suggested, be in physically reclaiming the DCT-700 and the Moto series 2500, 2700, 6200, and 6400 STBs, especially since Verizon does not have a brick and mortar facility in most locations, and then replacing them with MPEG4 capable STBs.
So how would things get more difficult for Verizon as time passes, since you've said that the biggest technical and financial hurdle is replacing STBs, not upgrading the headends? Perhaps you thought that switching every Moto box would be the big issue. But now that I've thought about it, and as
bull3964 inferred, Verizon wouldn't need to replace every MPEG-2 SD
and HD box to go MPEG-4 for HD. They would only need to replace the Moto 6200 and 6400 STB's, and keep SD channels on MPEG-2. They've got the bandwidth to handle that configuration. That would be a good value for Verizon, although I still contend that IPTV is an even better value, in terms of box switching costs.
An additional problem with going MPEG-4 is that the TiVo HD and Series3 don't decode MPEG-4. Well, technically, they're software-crippled to do MPEG-2 only, but viewers will be at the mercy of TiVo here to update the firmware. If Verizon switches before TiVo updates their firmware, a lot of TiVo users on this forum, and elsewhere, will be
pissed. When will TiVo move? Who knows, maybe when Comcast starts transitioning to MPEG-4, whenever that is? Good thing that VZ is in less of a bandwidth bind than Comcast, so they can wait.
Thanks for the link. An average of 8 SD's on a QAM? Goody; that means more cleared QAMs than I thought.
OK, assuming 8 SD's on a QAM, the 64 aforementioned non-movie channels will open up about 8 transponders. The movie channels probably do 9 on a QAM, so using that metric, the 76 premium movie channels open up about 8.5 transponders; the other half of the ninth can go to currently underutilized SD transponders, fully opening it up, too. So you add the two groups up, and you get 17 transponders opened by IPTV.
From there, SD bitrates/bandwidth can be reduced to allow more SD channels on a single QAM. Comcast usually averages 12 SD's per QAM, each at 544x480i:
http://www.comcastmediacenter.com/hi...ing-lineup.asp
So of the remaining SD channels, average bandwidth demands can be cut by a third. Basically, three transponders worth of channels can fit into two. So let's add it up:
According to Matt's link, there are, by my count, 45 SD QAM transponders, including local channels. Four or so of those transponders are basically half-utilized, so I'll say there are 43 in the "official" tally. Of those 43 transponders, 17 can feasibly be sent to IPTV. That will mean 26 transponders remain. So from there, we'll cut by one-third, which leaves us with 17.333 transponders. We'll round up to 18 to give the channels a little breathing room.
So bottom line, how many HD channels will this mean? First of all, Matt's link shows us that there are only 134 transponders, not 141 as I originally thought. Assuming transponders 2-6 remain unused (a good idea if they're in the same frequencies as OTA channels 2-6), 129 transponders of the original 134 will remain. Subtract the 18 SD QAM's from that, and you get 111 transponders. This means there's room for a total of 222 HD channels. Assuming a crowded local TV market, 15 of those are dedicated to local HD channels and RSN's. So that leaves
207 national MPEG-2 HD channels. (Eat your heart out, DirecTV.) The only question from there is this:
Is room for 207 national HD channels enough?