HD DVD: Blu-ray Has Problems - Page 2  

I'm not telling anyyone to follow my lead. That just the way I am, I don't have the need to be the first person on my block with anything. I could care less who wins unlike some people who so passionately need to support or belittle either side. I was just making comments from the average joes point of view. By the way its not the early adopters that decide anything its when the average people start buying in masses which decides the lead format. This isn't going to be decided for years to come. Right now sony has a bunch of studios behind them but that can easily change if the studios get antsy and want to cover there bases. Especially if the HD-DVD sells better than some predicted.

well some have already jumped ship but to blu-ray side not hd-dvd side. WB and Paramount had been sole hd but have now become neutral.

If nothing else, HD-DVD is losing support even if BR isn't gaining any new support, in a best case scenario, off of developments like that.

There's no good news out there for HD-DVD, it seems. They can't even seem to keep a hold on the support that they did have, even a few months ago.

Now, now. We can't say that yet, the $1800 player you speak of is not out and I have not seen any reviews of it. It could turn out to be $1800 worth of crap. I hope not for that price but, the fact is no one knows if this player is the best because it is not out yet. There is nothing worse then spending $1800 and being disappointed.

Cnet did a review and it won best at ces.

They did a full review, in there demo rooms, with their own version of the player and their own software or just a review from the demos they saw at CES? Seriously, just asking.

heres the cnet article

http://www.cnet.com/4831-11405_1-6411878.html?tag=next

Bingo !!

Well, personally I bought VHS back then because the player/recorder was cheaper, the tapes were cheaper, and I couldn't see the difference in PQ that Sony kept telling me was there. I vaguely recall VHS could record longer hours too, but I'm not sure about that. Also back then I actually could care less about content because stuff came out on cable 6 months before tape, so we used to record off cable all the time. Movies were something like $20-$30 on VHS for purchase (this was early 80's dollars). It isn't like today where content comes out on DVD within 6 months of the theatrical release and you have Netflix. Rental shops were still mom and pop local joints, no blockbuster or hollywood video. By the time rentals went big time VHS/Beta was already over.

Ironically the "content" that people say actually affected the VHS/Beta wars was not studio movies but pr0n. Many people say it will do the same for BD/HD.

I think if everything works according to specs and reliably, obviously most folks would rather have the bigger disks. There are two contentions about BD that are significant concerns.

1) reliability - if the BD-ROMs work as well as current DVDs I think that will be a huge positive. If we end up with lots of BD-ROMs skipping and losing frames, BD is in for trouble. If we end up with tons of $30 coasters I think people will get tired of that fast.

2) if BD-ROM can get prices down to something which can appeal to mass market vs early adopter that will be a big test also. By prices I mean prices of players, recorders, movies, recordable media, etc.

I do believe HD-DVD has an edge in those 2 areas, but it has the negative of lower storage capacity. Then again, HD-DVD is supposed to have dual-layer working right now so they have 30GB capacity while BluRay is supposed to be working out the kinks on dual-layer so they are working with 25GB discs right now. That is a minor concern, but I think they will eventually in the near term have 50GB available. The question is how much more are you willing to pay for the extra 20GB if the movie fits fine in 30GB. For example if I can buy 2-3 recordable HD-DVD for the price of one recordable BD-DVD, do I really care about the extra capacity? I actually have lower $/GB with HD-DVD which may end up being more important the GB/disc. BD vs HD is also slightly different than VHS/Beta in that they will mostly be playback mechanisms initially, so content could end up playing the most important part, but again that depends on the discs being reliable, relatively cheap, and the content not showing up on HD-DVD. If reliability and price are not favorable or the studios start wavering, HD-DVD will have an edge.

By all acounts beta max was superior and had a 1 year head start but
beta max failed because it wasn't built as a machine to market to the average joe. Basically sony's arogance. Big on the list was beta max only could record 1 hr compared to 2 on VHS. Content was big because of the price of betamax tapes which were 2-3times more expensive than VHS.

I think that I have read that most of the Studios are now stating they will probably release both formats. I also think that because the HD DVD disc will be easily made without much retooling from the disc manufactures gives them a big advantage. Now if Sony can add these drives at a lesser cost then it might win in the end. Unlike a few extreme Sony loyalist most consumers are driven by cost. Actually most are happy with the current DVD format. It will take some time and a great price reduction in both HDTV sets and players before this format is played and seen in the majority of American households. Right now it is an extreme hobby at best.

Sony will not win because history has taught us again and again that consumers will buy cheaper technology. There was no doubt that the Sony Betamax was superior to VHS in terms of quality, but the price was overinflated. So guess who won? We only remember history, but rarely the lessons it's taught.

Let's face some facts here. The early bird gets the worm. That's just the way it is. HD-DVD will get a head start and the early adopters will likely adopt the technology. Their marketing campaign will convince people with a HDTV to buy it and most will. Probably the die-hard Blu-ray fans wouldn't, but many people will. Then many months later when Pioneer released a whoopin $1800, guess who's gonna buy them? The rich people and the Blu-ray bigots. The remaining consumers will save over $1300 buying a HD-DVD player. With Microsoft & Intel embracing HD-DVD, no doubt HD-DVD will be widely adopted. HD-DVD is endorsed and approved by the DVD Forum, the international association of over 230 consumer electronics, entertainment, software, IT and other related companies around the world. DVD Forum even includes member companies of the Blu-ray association and companies that are backing both of the formats. The format is promoted by the HD-DVD Promotion Group, which currently counts 63 member companies. Some of the most important are: Toshiba, Sanyo, NEC, Paramount Pictures, Universal Pictures, New Line Cinema and the Warner Bros Studios.

Now the winner of this war will be purely be decided by the judges (the consumers with their cash). Consumers are cost conscience. It's an undeniable fact. Most consumers aren't tech savvy like most of us here on the forum so when they go out to buy stuff, many external forces will drive the consumers' purchasing decision. And the stores will adapt to their preferences. Let's pretend if they go to a store and see two same movies, one being "Titanic: High Defition DVD" for $24 and the other being "Titanic: Blu-ray DVD" for $50. The first thing the consumer will say to themselve is, "What in the heck is a Blu-ray?" They will make their decision solely on the price, and also the "High Definition" sounds better than a "Blu-ray". And if HD-DVDs have a high turnaround rate (going off the shelves fast), most of the companies that pledges their soul to Blu-ray will beg HD-DVD for forgiveness and start making HD-DVDs. Why? Simple, businesses number one purpose is to make money. And a significant amount of a studio's profit comes from the sales of DVD. If a studio only release their movie on Blu-ray DVDs that aren't selling and they are losing money, shareholders will be down the companies' throat. It doesn't take a genius to figure this out. By analyzing this situation based on history, the winner is quite clear.

Last but far from last, I wouldn't be suprise if some puerile, like Cain for example, would respond to my post with stupid things like, "I'm getting tired of people slamming my precious Blu-ray..." or "OMG get out of this section... go to the HD-DVD section...%%*#&@(%" Anyways... this is a public forum and it's open to debate and people should do it maturely and not act childish. If you want a forum with all Blu-ray diehards, then create yourself a forum and restrict membership to only people with that preferences. That's all I have to say. This is directed only toward only a very few childish people, since a majority of the people can handle themselve maturely.

Blue Ray will win, because Playstation 3. It will ship 10/15 millions within first year. This size of installment pretty much can't be a loser. Of course, Sony seems has trouble with its new toy; the company is low on cash, too... I can't help to wonder, maybe Sony will belly up soon, very soon...

I'm not sure you can say HD-DVD is ahead of BD. At least not in all areas. Pioneer has announced a BD reader/writer for the PC to be available at the end of January, if some license issues can be worked out. Price is speculated to be around $1000. This drive is not really intended for the masses, but for "content creators". I have also seen 2 announcements for BD writeable discs, one of which had prices, something like $17 single layer, $34 dual layer. I have not found similar press releases for HD-DVD drives for the PC, or for HD-DVD media. So in this regard, BD seems to be leading. On the other hand, some speculate the PlayStation3 may not be released until later this year, due to various problems. This would be the cheap entry for playing BD movies, since it should sell for around $500 and is supposed to allow you to play movies. I have no idea if it would provide DTS-HD to Dolby TrueHD.

While availability of movies will partly determine the "winner" of the format war (if a winner is ever declared), I think HD video games will play a very significant role in determining the winner of the format war also.

I can't see either side pricing the electronics much higher than the other side for long. They'd lose too much market share.

One other thing, for mass producing BD disks vs. HD-DVD, I know switching existing equipment from producing DVD to producing HD-DVD is cheaper than switching from DVD to BD, but Sony also said that BD can be produced with one injection molding machine as opposed to 2 for HD-DVD, and so BD media will come down quickly in price.
http://www.blu-ray.com/faq/#1.13

Scott

I had both
1) beta tapes where not more expensive (actually a bit cheaper) but they had a much shorter record time. So yes if you are taping all your movies on tapes then VHS did become cheaper in tapes you could have three movies on one VHS but only two on Beta, and that was in betaII that only came out later (the first were only 2h). VHS also had the advantage of three settings and that made some people think VHS had more to (2h, 2h – 4h,4h, - 6h , the same amount of hours meant they assumed same quality and so VHS had the 6h that was a bonus if they did not care about PQ)

2) who the hell bought movies back then. You went to the rental store and rented for 1$-2$.

Did Betamax have the same kind of momentum and overall support out of the gate like Blu-Ray already does now?

Everything has changed so much in the past 30 YEARS that I think these VHS vs. Betamax comparisions are downright laugable, at best, and certainly inapplicable for the most part today.

link please. I have read no such thing except if you meant to limit yourself to HD-DVD supporting studios :)

they need whole new lines, read what the replicators have to say instead of the HD-DVD supporters

agree, but isn't that the point? the guy driven by cost will stick with DVD. The hobbyist even if price conscious wants the content and so needs BD (well except if he is a delusional HD-DVD supporter and so even though 30% of Hollywood said never and the other 20% said I have no intention of releasing HD-DVD they still think that all movies will be on HD-DVD from day one.

you mean like Beta and VHS? LD and DVD? all pre PC computer manufacturers and PC? Dreamcast and PS?

and all of these actually had a big head start, not one measured in hours :)

I know you most likely put in a pre order so this time Toshiba can’t delay the player like they have been doing for the past 5 months :)

Read up on the iPod, PS2, and every version of Windows from 95 on. All more expensive than their competitors, launched later, and wildly successful.

The whole set of issues around "we will cripple the functionality to defend our content and existing distribution channels" will have a big effect. Lots of that is still to be determined, AFAICT.

Most people miss that one of the main factors in the success of the iTunes store was Apple using its leverage to get a semi-workable scheme to balance the studios' interest in copy protection against the users need to not have that intrude on legitimate users using the product they paid for. The content owners always want something iron clad, always ignoring the fact that there's no such thing against the determined cracker; so all an over-the-top scheme does is make life harder for legit users and reduce functionality.

The same thing is going on with cell phones. They want to control your access to content to that sold by them only, and limit features on the phone, even going so far (Verizon) as to cripple phone features to do it.

That's one of the reasons that having a lot of studios on board isn't necessarily a plus. They will be pushing to defend their own interests, and ignore consumer interests (and more generally, reality), if history is any guide.

Though Microsoft may be BD's secret weapon in this regard, given their history.

Actually that brings up a very good point. Until people actually receive hardware, this whole argument about HD DVD being first is a non-starter. So far they've announced an earlier shipping date than anyone else, but have disclaimed that it may be longer. I'm not saying Toshiba won't meet their estimated launch date, but there are still issues being worked out with AACS, which should affect both camps, and Toshiba has been plagued with them for their Japanese release. Throw "AACS issues" without the quotes into Google and see what you come up wtih. Here's one from 12/13/2005.

And hardware is only half the battle, since you need software on the shelves as well. All those pretty cases we saw or saw pictures of from CES were empty.

Joseph

This whole argument about HD DVD being first is a non-starter. There are many examples here already of that. And you've all already noted that the first gen is not for the masses.

What clearly matters is who is fastest in developing their products for the things that matter to consumers - getting the interface and features to work right; getting the cost down; getting content out there.

If anybody things either format is going to have these things in place by June, you're dreaming. They themselves must be looking at Xmas 2006 as a goal for wider adoption.

So look to who has the 2nd, 3rd, etc. generation out there and is cannibalizing their own products (like Apple did to the mini with the nano) to beat the competition and provide value to users.

Beta max movies were originnaly more expensive than VHS. But to compete they were forced to drop prices dratically to compete with VHS tapes. From reaserch Ive read that paramount initally started selling movies beta for 79 buck compared to 29 for VHS. Affter it was seen no one was buying them they continually dropped the prices to compete with the much cheaper VHS.

after reading i see the argument seems to center mainly around pioneer charging 1800 for their player and i recall here in houston denon selling their 3910 for 1400 which a lot of people thought was to high funny the unit sold out and was on backorder my foreman waited a little over 3 months for his. i also noticed there is a large number of threads devoted to that model.my point even at 1800 they will sell and being an elite model will help.

It's like thebland wrote in (I think) the dedicated thread for that player:

Relatively speaking, a $1799 MSRP for a new Pioneer Elite player right out of the gate is actually pretty good, ESPECIALLY considering you're talking about a BRAND NEW cutting edge technology.

What did the Pioneer 59avi first cost when it came out, as a relative comparision?

What did/does the Pioneer 79avi cost MSRP, right now?

I'm not saying $1800 MSRP is chicken feed by ANY means, but RELATIVELY speaking, that's not half bad for something that's this loaded, at least on paper.

And I can't remember the last time I saw or heard about a bad Pioneer Elite product, quite honestly.

But like all of the rest of this: We won't know for sure until we can actuall see and use the products in question.

I would like to first state that I am for any FORMAT in HD. But I would also like to say that since BB and other stores are already selling pre orders SONY better hurry up fast. My parents (mid sixtys) went yesterday to a BB and pre ordered a HD DVD player. If BR is going to be a lot higher in price the first year they will be far behind by the second year. The average consumer will purchase HD DVD because it is cheaper and because they will be seeing it everywhere by early summer. We have people all over asking us about HD DVD players and when we are getting them in. Since they are 500 they seem to have opened a flood gate. I know the PS3 will help, but for many average Joes who don't play vid games they will be getting HD DVD players before a PS3 launch. Also, a year from now HD DVD players will be 300-399 (or less). I know it sounds like I am only touting HD DVD but I also plan to support BR. I don't mind having a library of many HD titles. I personaly plan to get a HD DVD player and then a combo unit down the road. BR backers can bash HD DVD players all they want, but the reality is they will be here at the end of March. Finaly dvd discs in HD. Tell me you won't be tempted? When new releases start to come out in HD and standard the temptation will be strong, at least it would be for me. Especialy when KING KONG comes! I know we don't really want two formats released, but it is what it is. We always have a few new video game machines out. I will close this post with commenting on BB. Once they have HD DVD players in store, with HD DVD titles come this late March, all the average consumers will be buying them. They just want HD, like us. They won't care about gigs are any specs. The letter HD will be enough to sell them. I think if there is to be a winner in this FORMAT war it will be decided in the trenches of BB, CC, and Walmart. And us high end folks won't have much to say...

Good points, but Joe, you of all people know: We're YEARS away from average consumers and average joe's considerations with either of these formats. It's just not even on the table.

Your parents are a rare breed, and I dare suspect they didn't come up with that idea all by themselves... ;)

Actualy Q it is funny that they were there (BB) just to buy a few movies when they heard they were taking pre orders for HD DVD players. My Dad has been bugging me for awhile about HD on dvd. So when they called me lastnite and told me I was surprised. They also told me the lady told them they had already 20 people or so (the first day) order. It is not a big BB either. Anyway, average Joes with HDTVs want dvds in HD. They don't care how or from who, just when...And since the end of March is coming fast, they will be sprinting...

Joe i dont see any way you are making any sense saying hd-dvd wil be all over but its quite the contray

HD-dvd you will have toshiba player not sure if rca will have one or not

then you will see BR players from

sony
jvc
panasonic
pioneer
yamaha
hitachi
mitsubishi
sharp
this is just a few let ot mantion the content form all studios except universal will have blu-ray so you saying h d-dvd wil be all over is incorrect its the opposite

Repeat: We're not dealing with average Joes for years to come. It's simply not the case.

The average joe who just got his DVD player a few years ago, and may or may not even have an HDTV yet (he's looking for content and not seeing much, quite frankly, given the prices from satellite and cable companies)...he's going to balk even at the idea of a $500 player. He needs to have it well justified.

Content is king. Content is what sells hardware and products. Many average joes, when they buy a player like this, will also be buying their first HDTVs and they need to be well convinced if they're going to throw down that kind of serious coin.





I have very serious doubts about being an early adopter in any event, but especially with an obvious nightmare that this so called "format war" is going to be.


Furthermore, I can't imagine that a $500 first generation Toshiba player is going to be that high of a quality item, regardless of format.


I'm disappointed at some of the shilling I've seen for this thing.

Some people are doing cartwheels because it's "cheap" and it's HD, but they're deliberately ignoring the rest of the facts, not the least of which is: Toshiba's track record.

Toshiba's inconsistenty with QC is well documented, whether it's DVD players or other items.

All of a sudden I'm supposed to be excited about a Toshiba product? LOL!


$500 for a supposedly brand new, cutting edge, FIRST GENERATION player? Doesn't that sound an alarm off in the back of anyone's head, regardless of company?

It reeks of a desperation, firesale tactic to me, but I could be wrong.





The more information I get from either side, the less excited and more frustrated I start becoming, whether it's about the mess that the new audio formats will be, and the inevitable forced hardware upgrades that those will most certainly mandate (I think HDMI is of the devil himself. I'm convinced of it)... even though most studios are backing BR right now, you have stupidity like T2 coming out on BR and T3 coming out on HD-DVD and so forth...

What a mess!


It took forever for a stable format like DVD to finally come of day.

This stupidity assures us an even longer and more convoluted wait.

Average joes aren't even in the same universe right now with this stuff. People need to stop talking about them because it just isn't even remotely applicable right now and has no bearing whatseover, for either format.