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PlayStation 3 may be delayed a year - Page 2  

post #31 of 121
http://www.dvdreview.com/news/

Facing the inevitable truth that they are losing the battle, it’s not surprising that the HD-DVD camp will do just about anything at this stage in the game to create the illusion of being the high definition forerunner. Last week we reported about delays in the Advanced Access Content System (AACS), which handles many of the security and copy protection features of the upcoming HD-DVD and Blu-Ray formats. Just before the weekend these issues have been resolved and the AACS specs have been finalized. Ordinarily however, this delay would have set back the launch of the HD-DVD format because it takes some time for these new specs to be implemented in the hardware and the firmware that controls it.
Too much time, some execs at Toshiba must have thought because today information trickled down that Toshiba plans to launch their HD-DVD players in March still – with incomplete firmware. In order to make sure they launch the format ahead of Blu-Ray Toshiba – and potentially other HD-DVD partners – are willing to launch incomplete hardware with a number of features disabled. One could almost call these players defective because it is clear that these players will turn out to be completely incompatible with certain aspects of the HD-DVD specs and undoubtedly cause problems down the road, such as lock-ups, inaccessible features and possibly the complete rejection of select releases.
Isn’t that yet another reason why you should stay away from HD-DVD? To me it clearly is and I can feel nothing but pity for those poor buyers who will end up purchasing such malfunctioning hardware.
post #32 of 121
Quote:
The main two problems are, the unit cost way too much to make, at $900.00 to $1000.00
the report was 900$ and if you do the math it really comes to 800$, how did you just make it 1000$?

Quote:
Because the facts are, one of the ideas behind HD-DVD was to use exisiting factories, that way, with minor re- tooling, the costs are a lot, lot less then starting from the begining like Blu-Ray is doing, those extra high prices we pay for the first units are those start-up costs.
retooled lines don't work, and even if they did tit would have been 1/3 the cost of BD lines. On the other hand none of this matters, TW told us their price for BD and HD-DVD and it is the same, LG and Sony gave us their prices for disks and they are not more then HD-DVD disks.
post #33 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP
..retooled lines don't work, and even if they did tit would have been 1/3 the cost of BD lines. On the other hand none of this matters, TW told us their price for BD and HD-DVD and it is the same, LG and Sony gave us their prices for disks and they are not more then HD-DVD disks.
Are you kidding?

Lines are re-tooled all the time. Don't know where you get your info, but they certainly don't go building a new factory every time a new product line goes into production at the CMs.

You think Detroit just slaps up a new building with each new model year automobile? The complexity of an auto assembly line would dwarf the PS3 deal.

Other than a perhaps a new facility for the drive components, the rest is basic assembly line stuff. The majority of components on the BOM will be coming from outside sources. It's not an "all under one roof" product.

The Cnet article is confusing because it talks BOM cost and "cost to produce" in the same breath. Two very different things. One doesn't factor R&D, assembly and packaging/distribution.
post #34 of 121
Anthony - the extra $100 is for the "popcorn and peanuts", which for the BOM the ML guy showed, would include such unessential items as the case, actual assembly, etc. The extra $100 on top of that is probably someone hedging the report even further.
post #35 of 121
Thread Starter 
If Sony is indeed going to take such a massive loss, then why don't they follow Microsfts lead. launch the damn thing with a vanilla DVD drive and go the add on route with the BR drive like the XBOX-360 is with HD-DVD? Then by the time they are ready to go, the cost will have come down on the BR drive.
post #36 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by paintit77
If Sony is indeed going to take such a massive loss, then why don't they follow Microsfts lead. launch the damn thing with a vanilla DVD drive and go the add on route with the BR drive like the XBOX-360 is with HD-DVD? Then by the time they are ready to go, the cost will have come down on the BR drive.
Because then Blu Ray is dead. If the costs are truly so prohibitive to build it into the PS3, then HD-DVD has a permanent cost advantage on the hardware side. J6P isn't going to buy Blu Ray at twice the price when HD-DVD is right there. And oh, yeah, the several studios will officially support HD-DVD about a month after Sony makes this announcement about the PS3, at which point the software edge that Blu Ray should have will disappear.
post #37 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by paintit77
If Sony is indeed going to take such a massive loss, then why don't they follow Microsfts lead. launch the damn thing with a vanilla DVD drive and go the add on route with the BR drive like the XBOX-360 is with HD-DVD? Then by the time they are ready to go, the cost will have come down on the BR drive.
Because they promised studios like 20th Century Fox that PS3 would have full Blu-Ray support, because they know, if the price is good, that the most Blu-Ray players out there would be the PS3 at first.
post #38 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ursa
Anthony - the extra $100 is for the "popcorn and peanuts", which for the BOM the ML guy showed, would include such unessential items as the case, actual assembly, etc. The extra $100 on top of that is probably someone hedging the report even further.
The analyst confirmed to me in an email that it should be $800 - it was an arithmentic error.
post #39 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by JosephShaw
Shareholders that listen to a guy who rated AMD as sell on the eve of Intel's last earnings report should probably have their heads examined. Having dealt with analysts in the past, many of them don't know much about what they're covering. And as I posted earlier, evidence from other sources, including a previous Merrill Lynch writeup on the PS3, show that the component prices listed on this latest report are a bit overinflated.

Exactly. I'm hoping the market prices in more worry over the next couple of days, then I'll consider a buy opportunity.

nataraj : An arithmetic error on a published report that millions of shares are trading on worldwide? Priceless! My dog could analyze businesses better than these guys.
post #40 of 121
I also agree with Ursa and boo- if Sony releases the PS3 without Blu-ray, it's a disaster for Blu-ray.
post #41 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ursa
Because then Blu Ray is dead. If the costs are truly so prohibitive to build it into the PS3, then HD-DVD has a permanent cost advantage on the hardware side. J6P isn't going to buy Blu Ray at twice the price when HD-DVD is right there. And oh, yeah, the several studios will officially support HD-DVD about a month after Sony makes this announcement about the PS3, at which point the software edge that Blu Ray should have will disappear.
Wrong....it is hd dvd that is dead in the water and being launched even more crippled than it already was with 1080i, less than 40% movie studio support, basically no hardware support from the majors, and a lousy 2 channels of lossless audio.

The more desperate hd dvd becomes, the more its handful of fans seem to become.

If hi res video was going to be anywhere near as big as some here try and spin it, they would easily already have the first 30k players pre sold by now.

This is the part that hd dvd fans aren't getting......these formats will not take off for years, if ever, and the only real sales potential for either format for the next year plus will be the PS3.

This is why we see basic no facts FUD threads posted by hd dvd fans every other day in this section.

I say you guys need to rally your own troops with FUD because Blu Ray supporters aren't going to be spun around with Fud posts ;)
post #42 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobm
Are you kidding?

Lines are re-tooled all the time. Don't know where you get your info, but they certainly don't go building a new factory every time a new product line goes into production at the CMs.
For media replication it seems the early goal of retooling DVD lines to create HD-DVDs has been abandoned in favour of the more cost effective solution of building new lines capable of both. For players/recorders I'm not sure why you think HD-DVD would attract significant savings over BD: both appear to have similarities and differences to current DVD devices which would need to be accounted for in any plant upgrade. The BD drive may or may not be more expensive than an HD DVD drive. HD DVD may need more ram. The only indication of costs so far are the two drives (NEC HD-DVD and Samsung BD) tested by the German magazine which claimed similar prices for the units.
post #43 of 121
I put my money on some delays here.

The price at $900 just won't work. So it look as if SONY will be taking a fairly large hit per unit.

A $600 hit per unit? Ouch.

(disclaimer: this is all opinion based on speculation which is basically useless, so settle down)
post #44 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by paintit77
If Sony is indeed going to take such a massive loss, then why don't they follow Microsfts lead. launch the damn thing with a vanilla DVD drive and go the add on route with the BR drive like the XBOX-360 is with HD-DVD? Then by the time they are ready to go, the cost will have come down on the BR drive.
Also keep in mind, all games are supposed to be on BR Media regardless.
There won't be any games on the DVD format.

At least that's what SONY has been saying for over a year now.
post #45 of 121
The SONY response to Merril Lynch

Key here is that SPECS have yet to be finalized.

http://ps3.ign.com/articles/690/690176p1.html

February 20, 2006 - Sony Computer Entertainment has reaffirmed its aim to release the PlayStation 3 in spring. However, it has also admitted that some areas of the system's specifications have yet to be finalized, and if finalization is delayed, the system's launch could be pushed back.

SCE's comments are in response to a recent report from Merrill Lynch Japan. According to Reuters, a Merrill Lynch analyst claimed in a report dated the 16th that many hardware and software companies have mentioned a possible delay for the PS3 to some time between fall and the end of the year. As reasons for the delay, the report mentioned a holdup in production of the system's video chip, problems with heat generation from the PS3 hardware and incomplete software content. However, the report also noted that Sony hadn't issued an official statement on the matter, and that Merrill Lynch would continue with the assumption of a Japanese release by May 31, the last official day of spring 2006.

A Sony public relations representative didn't specifically deny the report, stating to Reuters, "We cannot comment on analyst reports. At the present, we're aiming for a spring 2006 launch, just as planned." Reuters points out that Sony's comments did not specify a territory.

While sticking to its guns regarding a spring launch, the SCE PR agent admitted, "If we cannot finalize the specifications, we cannot release the PS3," adding, "We're currently waiting until the last minute for the specifications to be finalized." Asked what would happen in the case of a delay in finalizing the specifications, the Sony rep said, "We'd end up selecting the best time and releasing it. However, we cannot comment yet."
post #46 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj
The analyst confirmed to me in an email that it should be $800 - it was an arithmentic error.
Can you go back to him and ask about the "popcorn and peanuts" issue, especially where are the chassis and assembly costs? No CM with which I am familiar gives away these things, especially when primary purchasing is usually done by the OEM (aka Brand Owner for those outside the industry). If he has forgotten these, then this really is a pretty sloppy estimation job.

Later,
Bill
post #47 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Issac Hunt
For media replication it seems the early goal of retooling DVD lines to create HD-DVDs has been abandoned in favour of the more cost effective solution of building new lines capable of both.
You're talking media lines and I was referring to hardware assembly.


Quote:
For players/recorders I'm not sure why you think HD-DVD would attract significant savings over BD: both appear to have similarities and differences to current DVD devices which would need to be accounted for in any plant upgrade. The BD drive may or may not be more expensive than an HD DVD drive. HD DVD may need more ram. The only indication of costs so far are the two drives (NEC HD-DVD and Samsung BD) tested by the German magazine which claimed similar prices for the units.
Has nothing to do with HD-DVD specifically. For the sake of this discussion simply label it as a generic consumer electronics assembly line. There is nothing unique about it being HD-DVD or BD, save for the new drives, over an existing PS2 assembly line.

Have you ever been in a CM facility? I used to work for one of the larger ones. Fairly familiar with how retooling is done all the time. Trust me, they don't go building brand new facilities from the ground up when product lines evolve or reach end of life. Perhaps it's different in Asia, but there is still TONS of idle CM capacity in North America.
post #48 of 121
Well, I saw a commercial for a ps2 game on tv yesterday, I didn't pay much attention to the commercial but at the end when I saw the ps2 logo it hit me and I was like WTF? Who would spend R&D and advertising money on a ps2 game if ps3 is around the corner? I suspect the game makers know more behind the scenes info.
post #49 of 121
With 100 Million PS2s out there, there are still plenty of game sales to be had.

If if the launch is still on a schedule of Fall 2006 for NA, a PS2 game commercial is entirely expected.
post #50 of 121
Agreed. No one will be advertising a PS3 game at this point, that's for sure. Even after the PS3 is out, the PS2 game sales will taper off, not plummet. 100 million consoles will take a long time to churn through. Any developer or retailer who turns their back on that market is a fool.
post #51 of 121
oops!
post #52 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj
The analyst confirmed to me in an email that it should be $800 - it was an arithmentic error.
Well I like my analyst’s arithmetic more than yours……….. :)
Anymore analysts out there ? :D

Do I have 450 ???????

By Yukari Iwatani Kane

TOKYO (Reuters) - Sony Corp. said on Monday it still aims to launch its next-generation PlayStation 3 video game console this spring, but it could be delayed if industry specifications for some of its technology are not finalised soon.
The launch of Playstation 3 (PS3) has been the subject of heavy speculation in the industry as expectations are high for the powerful machine, which will feature cutting-edge technology in its DVD, processors and graphics.

PS3 will be competing with Microsoft Corp.'s Xbox 360, which went on sale last November, and Nintendo Co. Ltd.'s Revolution, which is expected later this year.
"We're aiming for spring, but we haven't announced specific regions," a spokeswoman for Sony Computer Entertainment said, adding that it was waiting for the final specifications on some of the technology it is using in the PS3, such as that related to the Blu-ray drive and to input and output video and sound.
The specifications are decided by industry consortiums.

"We're waiting for them until the last possible minute, but the launch could be pushed back if they're not decided soon," the spokeswoman said. If the PS3 is not ready in time, the company will choose the next best timing for the launch, she said.

The company's shares fell as much as 4.4 percent on Monday after Merrill Lynch said in a research note last week that the PS3's launch might be delayed by six to 12 months and the cost of materials could initially approach $900 per unit.
The shares were down 2.9 percent at 5,340 yen in afternoon trade, underperforming the Tokyo stock market's electrical machinery index IELEC, which fell 1.21 percent.

Merrill Lynch also downgraded its rating on Sony to "sell" from "neutral," saying in its note that Sony could see its earnings decline in the business year from April.
"If the launch is delayed, it will be beneficial in the short term, but will be negative from the standpoint of share price," said analyst Hitoshi Kuriyama in the note. "If it is on time, the PS3 will weigh on the company's profitability."

SPRING LAUNCH IS "UNREALISTIC"
Most analysts took the report in stride as they already expected Sony to launch the PS3 this summer in Japan, followed by a U.S. launch before the Thanksgiving holiday in last November. They expect a launch in Europe in early 2007.
"No one is seriously thinking a spring release is realistic any more," said Hiroshi Kamide, an analyst at KBC Securities. "If I were Sony, I wouldn't be that worried about releasing as soon as I possibly could."

Kamide said Sony may wait until it is fully prepared, especially after seeing slow initial sales of Microsoft's Xbox 360 even though it was launched in time for the holidays.

Having led the worldwide console gaming market for the last decade, Sony is counting on the new machine to dominate in all aspects of networked home entertainment -- games, movies, music and more.

Yuta Sakurai, a senior analyst at Nomura Securities, said the price of the PS3 to be more important than timing.
"I'm estimating about 50,000 yen ($420) as the price they have to sell it at," he said,
adding that it would be difficult for consumers to spend any more than that.
"I don't think it matters when Sony launches in the U.S. as long as it's in time for Christmas," Sakurai said.

He expects Sony to try to launch the PS3 in Japan in early summer, in time for the big selling season when schools go on holiday in July.
Retail price estimates by analysts in Japan vary widely from about 40,000 yen to 300,000 yen, primarily because of all of the technology that is packed into the machine, which is expected to be the size of a mid-size laptop computer.
The PS3, which can be played simultaneously by up to seven people, will be powered by the "Cell" chip, which is significantly more powerful than Intel Corp.'s Pentium 4, the most common chip for today's PCs and existing game machine processors.

It will also feature a super-powerful graphics chip, a built-in Ethernet port for high-speed Internet access, and Blu-ray, a next-generation DVD format backed by Sony.

Analysts generally agree that Sony will do whatever it can to avoid missing the key year-end holiday season this year, but many believe it will be unable to make the PS3 in great volumes.

Game development for the PS3 is also seen being delayed because the technology specifications have not been finalised.

"Game makers are developing games according to their guesses on what the final specifications might be," said Takeshi Tajima, a BNP Paribas analyst.
($1=118.30 Yen)

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/News...STATION-DC.XML
post #53 of 121
Good post PM. So good, it deserved to be posted twice!

;)
post #54 of 121
lol,
I think the computer gods favoring Sony did that !

So I changed the first to "oops" ! :D
post #55 of 121
You can delete your own posts too. Select the edit button, then the radio button for delete, then hit the delete button under that. Viola!
post #56 of 121
The PS3 will most likely retail at $400 base and $500 with a HDD. This analysation from wallstreet this week is base on a "parts build unit" of the PS3. All companies do this. Go do a search on a parts build unit xbox 360. All these companies loose money off the bat because they are pumping in new technology. Also consider that a parts build unit is based off a person going and buying 1 part from each company to build their own system. Sony buys in bulk. MS is also loosing money on the 360. These companies make this up from game sales, licensing game engines, licensing in general, etc, etc.
This same thing happened last year when "wallstreet insiders" said that the PSP would retail anywhere between $350-$500 based on a parts build unit. Suprise, it retailed on opening day at $250; Sony selling it at a loss.
Expect the Xbox to maybe, maybe drop to $350 PE and $300 base unit. But there is no way they drop the price $100-$150 on their units while they are still loosing money.
post #57 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Penton-Man
Well I like my analyst’s arithmetic more than yours……….. :)
Anymore analysts out there ? :D

Do I have 450 ???????

Yuta Sakurai, a senior analyst at Nomura Securities, said the price of the PS3 to be more important than timing.
"I'm estimating about 50,000 yen ($420) as the price they have to sell it at," he said,
adding that it would be difficult for consumers to spend any more than that.
First you have to learn to distinguish price from cost before finding out how to choose the analyst .... ;)
post #58 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roofus
.... Also consider that a parts build unit is based off a person going and buying 1 part from each company to build their own system. .
None of my clients do BOM cost projections using onesy, twosy quantities. They typically use figures based on production quantity buys.

Now the ML guy could be pulling numbers out of his butt, but unless he's privy to the board design(highly unlikely), he can't accurately predict the BOM costs.
post #59 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj
First you have to learn to distinguish price from cost before finding out how to choose the analyst .... ;)
I think I did purty good at that type thing by being able to successfully retire at age 50 ! :)

Oops, actually 49 ½ ……….for purfect arithmetic. :D

In the summer of ’99, a little bird told me it was time to take the money and run from stocks to land. ;)

I must admit, I’m still finding it difficult that my accountant tells me I can’t gift myself 11K yearly because I think I deserve it much more than all the kids. :p

Sure could do with the extra pocket money.
post #60 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by moore
You can delete your own posts too. Select the edit button, then the radio button for delete, then hit the delete button under that. Viola!
You didn't know ?
I'm on a mission to catch Rogo.
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