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One of the main reasons Blu-ray will succeed over HD DVD - Page 2  

post #31 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by ckenisell
If you think about it, Blu-Ray has the best plan: Get as much money out of the early adopters as possible and drop prices once the high-end sales have decreased. They understand that masses aren't going to rush out and buy this at first at any price.
Which is the conventional model for new CE tech.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ckenisell
In my mind, I think it's plain stupid to buy any player this year. There need to be a LOT more titles that include DTS-HD and Dolby True-HD. HDMI 1.3 needs to be completed. (I'm not sure if BD-J is fully complete and implemented). Players need to be released that can output descrete 7.1 decoded DTS-HD and Dolby True-HD via analog. It just isn't here yet. Honestly, I don't think those features will even be ready for the second generation players. It looks like the third generation is where it will be.
Certainly nothing offered so far that completely appeals. But, I think it is unlikely anyone will release 8 channel analog output decks. The move is toward onboard decoding and delivering the LPCM via HDMI. And all the companies will want to sell you their new receivers.

Besides, that finally allows you to have a switched A/V setup without video degradation. One HDMI into the set from the receiver. In the meantime, the conventional audio is available via S/PDIF and coax. Those who demand the analog probably have the 7.1 analog inputs on their receiver.

The Playforsure in the Pioneer Elite is possibly the best feature I've seen so far. The flexibility that potentially offers is enormous.

Gary
post #32 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by ckenisell
In my mind, I think it's plain stupid to buy any player this year.
Man, sometimes I get so pissed that you, teenagers, are going to live forever, and can afford to wait as long as it takes. If you are one of those immortals, I'd say it would be stupid to buy a video player at all, since in less than 200 years everything will be transmitted directly to the brain via undiscovered yet brain wave protocols. And the images will be in 3D with better spatial and temporal resolution than reality.
I'm in my late 30s yet and you, schoolboys, make me feel so old. :)
post #33 of 56
OK, emdawgz1, maybe it's not entirely stupid as some would enjoy spending $500 and not having all the features (HDMI 1.3, DTS-HD and True-HD support). Of course, that probably means that a $300 player is around he corner that DOES include those features. It's just the way it works. And, if enjoying the $500 player for the amount of time it takes for the $300 player to arrive, then the extra $200 is worth it.
Quote:
Those who demand the analog probably have the 7.1 analog inputs on their receiver.
That would be me. I have the Parasound C1 and they have already stated that it will NOT support the new HD audio formats. So, the only real way to experience this lossless audio is if the disc player decodes it and sends it via RCA out. I don't stand to gain very much by continuing to use optical digital.
Quote:
Man, sometimes I get so pissed that you, teenagers, are going to live forever
I'll be 29 in May. Don't be pissed. It's just that I'd simply rather wait for a better cheaper product. Patience is a virtue and is easier on the wallet. I have never been an impulse buyer and I never plan to be. That said, I'll probably only have to wait a year (or less). If I live to see 75, that's only 1/75th of my life. :D AND, I'll still probably have it before 90% of other Americans.
post #34 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by ditcho
Man, sometimes I get so pissed that you, teenagers, are going to live forever, and can afford to wait as long as it takes. If you are one of those immortals, I'd say it would be stupid to buy a video player at all, since in less than 200 years everything will be transmitted directly to the brain via undiscovered yet brain wave protocols. And the images will be in 3D with better spatial and temporal resolution than reality.
I'm in my late 30s yet and you, schoolboys, make me feel so old. :)

I'm pushibng my mid 30's an dI feel old some days... Between HT upgrades and PC upgrades, my cycles are lasting longer. (3 years minimum now).

Now that I take public transit to work, I'm going to replace my car every 10 years!

At least I can enjoy thi stuff in my home.... today.
post #35 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by kraigk
Lot's of insight here. If we follow various arguments I would be of the thinking that the the format that does the following wins:

1. Most software fastest and cheapest (and this can't just be their lousy titles)
2. Player that is best and cheapest
3. Greatest market penetration fastest - gets software and hardware in stores first.

Now to finish my above thought, had to run into a meeting earlier..

1080i, 720p, 1080p, 480i - the average joe walking into BB doesn't know what these mean. He knows when he sees a WOW picture and then looks at the price tag. If the player is in that $200-$400 sweet spot he might jump.

Now once he's decided to buy this players and starts walking around the store and sees a few movies to play on this new player and gets sticker shock maybe he gets cold feet. Or maybe there is a different type disc that is cheaper? And then maybe he goes back to the DVD player aisle to see if that player is cheap enough for him.

Both of these formats are going to look great. The one that delivers the most for less fastest is the one that will stick.

The audio/videophiles in here don't represent the target markets. If we were representative they would lose piles of money.
post #36 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Timwit
US. You and I. The tech-savvy early adopters are virtually the only ones who will buy either player at first - the vast majority of whom will choose Blu-ray. News reports will tout BD as the projected winner of this format war! The masses will begin to feel it's safe to jump into the Blu-ray waters. Then, as BD player prices come down and the public's DVD players break down, necessitating replacements, BD players will grow; much slower than DVD, but it will be a future-proof status-symbol, resulting in a long steady growth.

This wasn't the case in the old days of VHS and Beta. There was no waiting until the early adopters decided who would win the war. There was just porn, and both formats had it. Also, it was a brand new concept. In contrast, today people already have their DVD players & DVRs. They're in no hurry to buy, as they were when video tape machines first came out. Who IS in a hurry to buy? Those of us who are really excited about HD PQ!

Polls show that a large percentage of people are going to wait to buy until there's a clear winner. Most of this large percentage are J6pk, while most of the small percentage who will not wait are videophiles. It's kind of nice! So many inferior products, in CE and computers, have become standards in the past for reasons other than quality.

This time, it's up to US. :cool:
-Tim
Hi Tim - I'm not sure that was much of a argument - a bit too weak to convince me I'm afraid. I've got a bunch of SACD discs that says the previous points posted still have me more inclined to invest in HD DVD until there is a true shakeout.

Good pep talk, tho...
post #37 of 56
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam
Hi Tim - I'm not sure that was much of a argument - a bit too weak to convince me I'm afraid. I've got a bunch of SACD discs that says the previous points posted still have me more inclined to invest in HD DVD until there is a true shakeout.
SACD was nowhere near the news story that "the greatest home video format war since Beta vs. VHS" will be.

Of course, my argument may be wrong. Time will tell. Let's first remember that I am predicting this to be "one of the main reasons." I posted this particular argument primarily because I don't believe it's been explored before, but I also think it's true due to the unique time and circumstances of this format war.

I believe my case can rest on a couple of rhetorical questions. Since Mr. and Mrs. average-CE-consumer already have DVD players, etc., and it wasn't that long ago that they bought them, and to them the HD improvement over DVD is not exactly revolutionary, and they are well aware of the risks of buying into a format war, and the news will sensationalize this risk: Will not the format war itself cause these folks to wait at least until the war is over? If so, who's not waiting? Many of us are even waiting, but once again, who's not waiting?

It seems to me that those who will buy during the format war are much more likely to support Blu-ray. Though premature, the news will look at the early numbers and project Blu-ray the winner. It will be a self fulfilling prophecy. The slow BD growth will then begin.

We'll see if that is, or is not, one of the main reasons Blu-ray will win. I hope it is, because being right is kind of nice :). But as I've said, mine is only one of many reasons...

-Tim
post #38 of 56
most people havent even replaced their aging TV sets yet, they arent gonna care about HD anything. Do you think my parents even think about it?...no, they just want to sit down and watch a show or a dvd sometime. I live in NYC, make great money. Of all my friends, only one other couple has a Plasma TV/HT setup. The others all make money, but they wouldnt spend 5000 or more on a setup...because they are using their money for other things. Believe it or not alot of people just want a nice viewing experience but dont care if its HD or not. I think its an uphill battle for both formats.
post #39 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by buzzyboy
most people havent even replaced their aging TV sets yet, they arent gonna care about HD anything. Do you think my parents even think about it?...no, they just want to sit down and watch a show or a dvd sometime. I live in NYC, make great money. Of all my friends, only one other couple has a Plasma TV/HT setup. The others all make money, but they wouldnt spend 5000 or more on a setup...because they are using their money for other things. Believe it or not alot of people just want a nice viewing experience but dont care if its HD or not. I think its an uphill battle for both formats.
I agree with you 100 percent.

You've summed up quite succinctly how, and why, these Average Joe/J6P "arguments" you still see a few around here desperately cling to...simply don't exist in actual reality.
post #40 of 56
i think people have a thirst for technology
as far as cost it is funny seeing kids packing
300.00 i-pods and 100.00 cell phones so i
do not think the cost of the player will have
as much bearing as the pq and sq will. with
more studio and manufactor support my
money is on blu-ray.
post #41 of 56
$100 cell phone? The one I have now did cost $500 (w/o subsidies) when I bought it... and I see kids walking around with more expensive 3G phones and they swap faster than I can say Boo.

And thats why PS3 @ $5-600 is going to be a hit. At least in Norway.

Per
post #42 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by buzzyboy
most people havent even replaced their aging TV sets yet, they arent gonna care about HD anything.
What percentage of US households watch OTA?

Feb 2009 is looming as the date all those people must decide to get a new set(s), get an OTA DTV tuner(s) for their current set(s), go cable/sat, or watch static.

Gary
post #43 of 56
I've got a serious question, tho.

How many DVD players are out there now, worldwide? Just curious if anyone knows the answer to this?
post #44 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam
I've got a serious question, tho.

How many DVD players are out there now, worldwide? Just curious if anyone knows the answer to this?
I don't know about worldwide, but according to the CEA 102,546,990 have been sold in the US since the format's inception.
post #45 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by JBlacklow
I don't know about worldwide, but according to the CEA 102,546,990 have been sold in the US since the format's inception.
The reason I ask is that everyone keeps talking about the PS3 changing everything in the format war.

Sony has claimed that they will sell something like 2 million of them over the lifetime of the product - say 4 or 5 years - but if there are literally hundred of millions of DVD players in the world that will be upgraded, the sales of PS3's with BD will just be a drop in the bathtub for the overall market.

Seems to me to be not quite the trump card one imagined, especially given how late to market it will be??
post #46 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam
Sony has claimed that they will sell something like 2 million of them over the lifetime of the product - say 4 or 5 years -
More like 200 million (12 million in the first year alone).

http://www.ps3portal.com/ps3/article/304.html
post #47 of 56
The PS2 sold half a million units in the US on opening day, and exceeded 100 million units worldwide in less than six years, a feat which took DVD 9 years. So you could say they've got reason to believe it'll be a market force.
post #48 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert
More like 200 million (12 million in the first year alone).

http://www.ps3portal.com/ps3/article/304.html

:D Yes, I couldn't get away with that one :D

It was fun trying, tho! BTW - the same article also questions "But is it even possible to sell 200 million units in five years? By comparison the PlayStation 2 only (and we say only tentatively), sold approximately 100 million in that time."

While I realize that this is a PlayStation-specific website and can be expected to be quite rosy, it fails to mention the rather large difference in price between the PS2 and the PS3, while cheerleading double the sales.... hmmmm!

Just for the record (before I get pounced on by little short people who live under bridges!) I'll probably buy a PS3 at some point, but do not expect it to have much use as a player.
post #49 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam
:D Yes, I couldn't get away with that one :D
That'll make you think twice before trying to BS us cultivated BD-huggers. :D
post #50 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert
That'll make you think twice before trying to BS us cultivated BD-huggers. :D
:D Heh! I like this good-natured banter better! :D
post #51 of 56
i'm not disputing that PS3 is an important part of the bluray plan, but have to question a few numbers (pedantic perhaps)

200mill sounds like an estimate on the high side seemingly based entirely on the assumed repeatability of selling PS2s twice as fast as PS1s. that figure and the 100mill figure for the PS2 are worldwide. approx 40m PS2s have been sold in the US vs the 100m DVD players. (http://www.gamespot.com/news/6140574.html for the PS2 estimates).

also, how much of the 200mill estimate includes an expectation that many buyers will eschew a bluray player in favor of a ps3, effectively cannibalizing bluray player sales?

i assume the 100m DVD player sales figure excludes DVD drives in PCs?
post #52 of 56
I wouldn't disagree with many who have said that BluRay has the advantage out the door. But, I think the big mistake is to assume that the war is over because of that. I keep preaching the fact that it's the market that will determine who will ultimately win. You just can't underestimate the power of the average consumer on the electronics market.

I don't like to use the VHS vs. Betamax comparison because it is so overused. I think a more current comparison in the DVD market is to use the DVD +R vs. DVD -R battle. Some of us enthusiasts took one side or the other initially, with each of us defending which was better. However, the average consumer doesn't know the difference and doesn't care. And lets face it, there still is no clear winner in that battle.

Take my father for example, he isn't technologically inclined and has retired. He decided that he was tired of his old VCR and that what he wanted was a DVD recorder that would record his shows, that was cheap, and would last. He settled on a Phillips DVD +R unit because it met his needs. He didn't consult his technologically savvy son (much to my disappointment). No, he went out and bought the cheapest DVD recorder he could find. He still uses it and could care less about the +/- format battle. The same will apply to the HD DVD vs. BluRay battle.

My point to all this is that my father is J6P. He will wait till a cheap alternative is available, and then only buy it once he is convinced he really needs it. When he does decide he needs it, he'll go down to the local CC or BB and buy whatever is on sale that day. He will not care about which is most technologically superior, he may care about which will play the most titles, if he remembers to ask. Until he is convinced it is something he really needs, he'll watch standard DVD on his standard def CRT and be happy. Just like most of the consumers out there.
post #53 of 56
unfortunately the VHS/Beta comparison may be the more apt comparison because
1. its a distribution mechanism for the studios NOT just a storage medium
2. it was relatively easy to come up with a combo +/- Recorder, not so for Beta/VHS and Bluray/HD-DVD

some other interesting reads (probably been trawled around a lot...)

Quote:
Is Blu-ray really superior?
The Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) has long asserted that its Blu-ray (BD) format is superior to the rival HD DVD format, and BD’s "revolutionary" buzz has understandably caught the fancy of certain technologists. But CEOs should be wary, because what the BDA does not sufficiently address is what lies behind those assertions. The numbers are stark: manufacturing BD discs will require an estimated US$1.7 million cost per manufacturing line. Per line!

Then, each major manufacturing facility would require the implementation of a minimum of two mastering systems, at a minimum cost of US$2 million per system. DVD, at the height of its success, resulted in an estimated 600 manufacturing lines globally. Even allowing for a decline in systems costs over time as the manufacturing base expanded, the tab for radically overhauling the media manufacturing industry would approach a billion dollars worldwide or more. Already-beleaguered CFOs will be challenged to raise—and risk—this significant amount of capital.

Compare this to the estimated cost of retooling for the HD DVD format compared to BD. HD DVD is able to utilize virtually the entire existing manufacturing infrastructure. The cost of upgrading an existing DVD line is about US$150,000—less than a tenth the cost of a BD line. A DVD mastering system can be upgraded for US$145,000. Basically, HD DVD is a DVD-9—a version of DVD we have enormous manufacturing experience with already—with a denser pit structure
http://arstechnica.com/articles/paed...xt-gen-dvd.ars
i'm sure there is some inflation going on in the bluray numbers, but its a surprisingly large difference. it seems hardly a surprise that Toshiba saw a window of opportunity here.

more stats on DVD ownership:

http://www.rtoonline.com/Content/Art...sage071803.asp
post #54 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by cripes
2. it was relatively easy to come up with a combo +/- Recorder, not so for Beta/VHS and Bluray/HD-DVD
Well definitely more difficult than DVD +/-, but both HD DVD and BD have the same disc dimensions and use the same wavelength laser. And LG has already stated they're going to try.

VHS/Beta had different cassette sizes, different tape loading methods, and different R/W heads.


Quote:
Originally Posted by cripes
i'm sure there is some inflation going on in the bluray numbers, but its a surprisingly large difference. it seems hardly a surprise that Toshiba saw a window of opportunity here.
When new line is compared to upgrading an existing line. But, every comment about HD DVD lines that are actually in place involves BRAND NEW EQUIPMENT, not an upgrade. That is it is +150K for HD DVD support in a new line. The difference is about $300-400,000 between a new HD capable DVD line and a Blu-ray line.

I doubt the difference between how much Cinram pays for a HD DVD v. Blu-ray line sells one HD DVD player to a consumer. Concrete benefit to the consumer needs to be exhibitted.

Gary
post #55 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by cripes
unfortunately the VHS/Beta comparison may be the more apt comparison because
1. its a distribution mechanism for the studios NOT just a storage medium
2. it was relatively easy to come up with a combo +/- Recorder, not so for Beta/VHS and Bluray/HD-DVD
Your right, and I'm not trying to say that the VHS vs. Betamax isn't a good comparison. I just think to many people throw it out as an example of how the HD DVD vs. BluRay battle will go.

Price, selection and content all matter to the average consumer. Marketing plays a big roll also. This could go either way depending on how things roll out by Toshiba, Sony and the other manufacturers. Personally, I think we will have to live with both formats for a very long time. Just like the DVD recorder +/- wars.
post #56 of 56
The advantage that the PS3 gives to Blu-Ray is that you have an instant install base of players. Remember that the typical PS3 buyer is buying it as a game console first and not specifically for Blu-ray playback. If Sony sells 4 million PS3's in the first year then that's 4 million people that can purchase Blu-Ray movies without an additional hardware expense.

Now some of these people may be HD-DVD early adopters and others may buy 1 or 2 titles just to check out the capabilities but it allows Blu-Ray to get thier foot in the door of a lot of homes that might not be considering HD-DVD or HD at all.
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