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OLED TVs: Technology Advancements Thread - Page 74

post #2191 of 9432
Quote:
Originally Posted by guidryp View Post

Very low odds of it happening even for iPad4.

Apple doesn't change screens on a annual basis. The pay big bucks up front to make sure the tooling/assembly lines are ready to roll in volumes, it really doesn't make sense to do this for a single model year.

Which is why when everyone was saying HD screen for iPad 2, I said not going to happen.

I think there is chance that next year sticks with the current resolution, if that happens I guess iPad4 could be OLED but I doubt it.

Ipad3 could be the double res LCD screen (2048x1536) and if it is, I am certain they will carry that same screen over to iPad4.

Ipad5 maybe??



i bet not going to happen. my most optomistic prediction is that we're still 2-3 years out from oled tablet screens. and why would sammy let apple have it first if they are the only manufacturer?
post #2192 of 9432
@guidry, good point, it does seem almost certain iPad 3 will have some sort of Retina Display. That makes iPad 4 a very unlikely candidate for a big display change.

@wally, I was more thinking that by 2013 Samsung and LG could possibly supply both Samsung and Apple. But that could still be beyond the capacity of both if the tablet market grows as predicted. Maybe iPad 5.
post #2193 of 9432
looks like this has a better chance of being on ipad like devices by next year rather than oled


Now this is pixel density... .8-inch 1280 x 1024 LCD panels and a 2048 x 1536 panel in the works that the company claims can deliver visuals nigh-indistinguishable from the real world.
http://www.engadget.com/2011/06/08/r...-powered-by-p/
post #2194 of 9432
More info on SMD ramp and with 8G pilot

"- Utilization rate for 5.5G A2 line in Jun: 70% with a capacity of 16,000 sheets per month

- SMD to increase 5.5G A2 line capacity to 72,000 sheets per month until 4Q11

- SMD to additionally expand 5.5G A2 line capacity to 96,000 sheets per month until 2Q12

- SMD to start a pilot production in 8G V1 line from 4Q11"
post #2195 of 9432
What's interesting, I guess, Spec, is that 100% of that 5.5G capacity seems directed to phones.
post #2196 of 9432
Though I think samsung galaxy s will be best selling android model, but 100k per month of mother glass is a lot I do think the ramp up includes tablet demand for samsung
post #2197 of 9432
I don't. Unless they plan on not really selling tablets. You can't sort of have enough screens for your tablet but sort of not.

There ought to be about 200 mobile phone screens per 5.5g substrate. At ~100k substrates per month, you are looking at 2MM mobile phone screens per month, or 25MM annually. Samsung might be able to absorb that product on its own for Galaxy II S/Galaxy III S. And even if not, they will have no problem finding customers at HTC and ZTE, looking to demonstrate high-end models.

Keep in mind Galaxy S sold 10 million units in just 7 months. I just don't see where you find tablet capacity in this 5.5G production. Again, unless you assume they aren't really selling any tablets. And I don't buy that as Samsung's business plan.
post #2198 of 9432
The Playstation Vita is a 5" OLED. 7" OLED tablets will come soon.
post #2199 of 9432
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post
I don't. Unless they plan on not really selling tablets. You can't sort of have enough screens for your tablet but sort of not.

There ought to be about 200 mobile phone screens per 5.5g substrate. At ~100k substrates per month, you are looking at 2MM mobile phone screens per month, or 25MM annually. Samsung might be able to absorb that product on its own for Galaxy II S/Galaxy III S. And even if not, they will have no problem finding customers at HTC and ZTE, looking to demonstrate high-end models.

Keep in mind Galaxy S sold 10 million units in just 7 months. I just don't see where you find tablet capacity in this 5.5G production. Again, unless you assume they aren't really selling any tablets. And I don't buy that as Samsung's business plan.
You are off by an order of magnitude. 200 screens per substrate x 100K is 20 million handset displays a month. Add in another 3-4 million a month from current Samsung capacity and you end up with capacity for well over 250 million 4.3" AMOLED displays a year. That is more than enough capacity for the smartphone market in early 2012.

In addition to specuvestor's listed capacity, it has been rumored that Samsung plans a second Gen 5.5 fab (A3) that would begin its ramp in 2012.

One thing we do agree on is that the potential tablet market is huge. However, I also think it is very price sensitive. IMO, the first round of non-Apple tablets missed this point entirely and it is only now that we are seeing competitive offerings that have any chance of selling. The fact that $499 is basically a price ceiling for a tablet is going to impact the introduction of AMOLED's in tablets....there is likely going to be a premium even when SMD ramps up their yields.

Slacker
post #2200 of 9432
I missed rogo's iPad3 volume projection as ipad2 and he missed a zero. We're square

Good point on the OLED tablet price which would likely be at least 50% more expensive I guess.

I think the A3 line is part of the ramp phase and not a new fab per se.
post #2201 of 9432
Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post
I think the A3 line is part of the ramp phase and not a new fab per se.
Oops, I must have misinterpreted some of the info. Are they using A3 to refer to capacity beyond the 100,000 substrates currently planned?

The Gen 8 fab though is still the big one though. Hopefully, we'll soon hear what approach Samsung plans to get around the various problems with large OLED displays/substrates.

Slacker
post #2202 of 9432
I think so. IMHO $2.5b must be a really huge 5.5G fab IIRC there should be 4 lines.

Again it will depend on the demand take up of the fab. If a premium priced tablet is unsuccessful then I think the 5.5G ramp and 8G plan will be up in air. IMHO the next 12 months will be critical to whether OLED can make it mainstream, or a costly samsung mistake.
post #2203 of 9432
Quote:
Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post

You are off by an order of magnitude. 200 screens per substrate x 100K is 20 million handset displays a month. Add in another 3-4 million a month from current Samsung capacity and you end up with capacity for well over 250 million 4.3" AMOLED displays a year. That is more than enough capacity for the smartphone market in early 2012.

There you go Slacker, good catch.

Rogo now believes Samsung is ramping up OLED production for the Galaxy tablet line, but also to allow it to sell OLED phone screens to companies like HTC, ZTE, etc.

It's going to be more than a little ironic, however, if Samsung is like "we have OLED tablets" and Apple is like "we have Retina Display tablets". And I wouldn't rule that out completely.
post #2204 of 9432
Buy Alert: Universal Display (Nasdaq: PANL)
Another Winner in the OLED Revolution


In the April issue of The Sovereign Individual, I told you about the new, disruptive technology known at organic light-emitting diodes, or OLED. The revolutionary lighting technology has already begun a process that will usher in a radically new television experience, and then flood through all manner of consumer electronics, automotive electronics and even outdoor signage.

I've been keeping up with what's happening in OLED. And just recently, Universal Display, an OLED company I've been watching intently, has seen its shares fall by nearly half.

That's our opportunity to jump into the shares of what will clearly be a company that wins big in this technology revolution.

Action to take: BUY Universal Display (Nasdaq: PANL) up to $40 a share.

Universal is a technology leader in OLED - with licenses for more than 1,000 issued or pending patents - and it holds a critical position within the industry. It is a primary supplier of the material that allows OLEDs to display colors.

All displays, whether they're LED, LCD or OLED, rely on the combination of the primary colors red, blue and green to make all the colors that go into an electronic picture. Universal is particularly adept at the color green, making it a key cog in the process of fabricating an OLED display panel.

As you might recall from the April issue, the key difference between LED, LCD and OLED is that the first two require a light source behind the colors to make an image visible. OLEDs generate their own light. That negates the need for an independent light source, cutting the weight and power consumption of a device, and allowing display-makers to make displays that, literally, could be paper thin in the not-too-distant future.

But display makers need Universal in the mix.

The company's phosphorescent colors - particularly green - are multiple times more efficient than competing fluorescent technologies, and the efficiency gives OLEDs made with phosphorescent technology longer life which, in turn, brings down the price of making OLED which, in turn, will increase demand for the technology.

Universal is tied to every major player in OLED today, including LG Display, the company we already own in the TSI portfolio for its exposure to the burgeoning OLED market.

Most importantly, it's tied to Samsung Mobile Display, which effectively owns the market at the moment. Samsung Mobile is a private company, so owing Universal is one of the purest ways to gain exposure.

Universal and Samsung Mobile are currently in contractual talks about license renewal. Those negotiations have been going on for a while, and have hit some sticking points, likely related to royalty rates and such.

But an agreement will be reached. Industry reports indicate Samsung Mobile will launch a production line later this year to build 65-inch OLED TV screens - and in doing so it has reportedly designed phosphorescent green into the production. That would clearly benefit Universal.

Aside from Samsung Mobile, activity is increasing among a variety of tech companies in Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and China that are building OLED fabrication plants. I expect we'll see a number of contracts with Universal come from those efforts over the remaining course of the years.

In recent weeks, investors have taken down Universal's shares on concerns that some patent litigation in Japan could potentially impact patents the company holds in other countries. However, investors are misreading the results of that litigation.

But that has given us the opportunity to buy into a technology leader at a good price. As the Samsung Mobile contract reaches fruition, and as additional display-makers sign on with Universal, this company's stock should rebound strongly back towards the $60 range, at least.

For those reasons, and because I recognize that OLED will usher in such a revolutionary change to our everyday lives, I'm adding Universal Display (PANL) to our TSI portfolio. The stock trades right at $37.

Action to take: BUY Universal Display (Nasdaq: PANL) up to $40 a share.

Until next time, stay Sovereign

Jeff D. Opdyke
Editor, The Sovereign Individual



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sovereign Society Members-Only Website
http://www.sovereignsociety.com
post #2205 of 9432
Quote:
Originally Posted by barry728 View Post

Buy Alert: Universal Display (Nasdaq: PANL)
Another Winner in the OLED Revolution

I’ve been keeping up with what’s happening in OLED. And just recently, Universal Display, an OLED company I’ve been watching intently, has seen its shares fall by nearly half.

Quote:
That’s our opportunity to jump into the shares of what will clearly be a company that wins big in this technology revolution.

Quote:
All displays, whether they’re LED, LCD or OLED...

Quote:
As you might recall from the April issue, the key difference between LED, LCD and OLED is that the first two require a light source behind the colors to make an image visible.

I've got an idea. Why not back light a LCD display with a LED light source.

I couldn't read any more. The author seems to be getting his understanding of LCD technology from Best Buy advertisements. What amazing things must he know about OLED.
post #2206 of 9432
I also laughed that the stock is down by half apparently, but I'm only supposed to buy it till it appreciates another 7% or so. Sounds like a real powerhouse!
post #2207 of 9432
It is rare for a major company to make a commitment to a sole source for any component for a product that has high volumn. Until there are two or more sources that are in volumn production, Apple will not want only Samsung.
post #2208 of 9432
Think IPS. Or power pc cpu by motorola for those old enough.

Sometimes they got no choice, sometimes it's politics, sometimes it's alliance like Wintel or Dell/intel in the past.

Strategic decisions in business can make or break.
post #2209 of 9432
All true, spec, but Apple won't be single sourcing the iPad screen at this point. They have no competitive need to and billions of reasons not to.
post #2210 of 9432
They've been single sourcing from LGD and now moving to CMI and Sharp. Similarly they are trying to nurture CMI for OLED because for obvious reasons Sammy will fulfill their internal OLED demand first.

I actually think it is possible that the next iPad may be 2 screens technology, maybe retina black and OLED white iPad or iPhones.

But again depends on next 12 months how the market accept premium priced OLED devices.
post #2211 of 9432
Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

They've been single sourcing from LGD and now moving to CMI and Sharp. Similarly they are trying to nurture CMI for OLED because for obvious reasons Sammy will fulfill their internal OLED demand first.

I actually think it is possible that the next iPad may be 2 screens technology, maybe retina black and OLED white iPad or iPhones.

I can't believe people are still flogging that brain dead rumor.

No way in hell will any iPad 3 have an OLED screen, iPad 5 at the earliest.

Also you clearly don't understand how Apple works, if you think they are going to have different types of screens in white ipads.
post #2212 of 9432
"Sony & Toshiba to merge LCD & OLED divisions"

http://www.flatpanelshd.com/news.php...&id=1307629091

09 Jun 2011






"According to Japanese Nikkei the two electronics manufacturers, Toshiba and Sony, are planning to merge their LCD and OLED production divisions to focus on production of LCD and in particularly OLED displays. The companies have not confirmed the rumor but Nikkei claims to have details......................."
post #2213 of 9432
@Guidry, I agree with you completely. There isn't any chance that the black and white iPads will have different screens. And there just isn't any chance at all iPad 3 will have an OLED screen. If Spec was referring back to iPad 3 there, he's thinking wishfully or mis-speaking. I fairly well showed that mathematically iPad 3 cannot have OLED screens (and that math was done more correctly). And the fact is, there would literally be one source on the planet at that point -- which after Fukushima is not happening.
post #2214 of 9432
hope Apple fans pay through their noses for the Oled screens sooner rather than later, for the same reason I'm glad Ipod made nand flash cheap as dirt for the rest of us, who buy mp3 players from e.g. samsung and pay 1/4 of the price for the same thing.

Actually, better, since my samsung sansa clip has been through the washing machine 5 times and still works...not to mention plays .Flac and acts as a USB thumb drive...no BS software necessary

In terms of Oled, let's hope Apple picks it up in one of their new toys so the mass production cost +quality issues can be fixed. Then the rest of us can enjoy quality tech and not be gouged for all our disposable income, and we can chuckle while we put our money into some good scotch and enjoy the deep blacks
post #2215 of 9432
I find it funny that Apple made flash cheaper for Samsung when they buy from Samsung....

But I think you mean Sandisk.

You are correct that if Apple adopts OLED at any point, it'll get cheaper for everyone. So to that end, it'd be a good thing for sure.
post #2216 of 9432
^^ I have no inside info but I think it is PLAUSIBLE to produce 1 mio OLED iPhones or even iPads white a month, depending on a lot of dynamics like demand for galaxy s products, yield rate etc. and not forgetting LG and CMI furiously trying to get into the bandwagen. Nonetheless the majority >80% will be LCD for sure. Apple has always been at the forefront of technology adoption, and sometimes too early in fact Personally IMHO these failures are why Jobs is competitive rather than idealistic now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by guidryp
I can't believe people are still flogging that brain dead rumor.

No way in hell will any iPad 3 have an OLED screen, iPad 5 at the earliest.

Also you clearly don't understand how Apple works, if you think they are going to have different types of screens in white ipads.
just to clarify: are you saying Apple never differentiate their white and black devices?
post #2217 of 9432
Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

just to clarify: are you saying Apple never differentiate their white and black devices?

Apple is all about simplifying choice and supply chain, not making it more complex.

OLED for Apple will almost certainly start on the iPhone and it will be the whole lineup, not case color determining screen type.

I see iPhone 6 as the first OLED possability and iPad 5 as the earliest iPad possability.

But I would rather be talking about TVs than phones/tablets where I really don't care about OLED.
post #2218 of 9432
Quote:
Originally Posted by guidryp View Post

Apple is all about simplifying choice and supply chain, not making it more complex.

OLED for Apple will almost certainly start on the iPhone and it will be the whole lineup, not case color determining screen type.

I see iPhone 6 as the first OLED possability and iPad 5 as the earliest iPad possability.

But I would rather be talking about TVs than phones/tablets where I really don't care about OLED.

well oled will certainly come to phones and tablet displays before it
it's available as a retail tv screen. It's still several years out, but at this point in time, oled stiil appears to be the next great display tech for sets and other display devices. certainly with more legs than sed ever got.
post #2219 of 9432
I am giggling only because OLED has been 5 years away for TVs for the past 10 years. And everything we write seems to suggest the same... Let's hope Samsung does something ridiculous and makes some ludicrously overprice 50" TV so at least we can see if it even lives up to the hype. Cause right now I'm not sure it will, but I am sure that the plasma/LCD forces can't seem to take us over the last few hurdles with their technology. So my TV for the 2020s could really use some new technology.
post #2220 of 9432
Quote:
Originally Posted by guidryp
Apple is all about simplifying choice and supply chain, not making it more complex.
Simplifying choice for the consumers is right. But not true if you are the supplier. One of the main reason Apple don't have numerous suppliers is because their components are difficult to manufacture. Their ASP is high but margin is excruciatingly low. Ask wintek, foxconn, catcher, LGD, etc. IMHO apple white has become a sub-brand itself so I'm not surprised if they differentiate it as a premium product.

I will take note of your forecast. Like rogo I tend to have pretty long memory
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