OLED TVs: Technology Advancements Thread - Page 83

Slacker, in a way we completely agree. My bigger point is that if one has a goal in mind at the end, one ought to drive toward the goal is a specific, relevant manner.

I don't believe 30" televisions drives toward that goal. It might serve them well to set those on fire to be completely honest. It actually might serve them well to put them in some kind of technology kiosks and spread those across the world to show off Samsung AMOLED. What I don't see serving them well is selling them for something around $5000.

I am not of the opinion that they can't make progress next year by the way on developing their 8G fab. I'm more of skepticism that they actually will do it.

The thing you leave out is that OLED will be CHEAPER to produce than LCD inside of 5 years. So when it's cheaper and far better in performance (it already is, and will be even more so by then) how does that fit into your calculations?

I'm sorry, but what do you base this on exactly?

And if it's true, why hasn't Samsung announced plans (and LG for that matter) to begin phasing out LCD in favor of OLED). These guys want to make money and if OLED were actually going to be cheaper to produce they could make more of them, sell them for less, and crush their competition.

Heck, if this were true, why haven't the Chinese announced plans for multiple OLED plants?

What pdoherty is posting as fact is still potential. The industry seems to be making progress on the various "printing" manufacturing methods but who knows if/when they will solve all of them. Certainly though, OLED's have a simpler structure and do have the potential to be lower cost. Of course, as specuvestor likes to point out, the upfront capex is quite a bit higher.

Samsung hasnt announced any plans to phase out LCD, but follow the dollars to see where they think the industry is going. The latest cuts to LCD capex means that they are going to spend quite a bit more on OLED capex than on LCD this year and the estimates for next year are that the LCD capex will be cut even further.

They are the first but I doubt they will be alone in spending more on OLED's than LCD's in 2013/14.

Slacker

The various "printing" methods are not used in any of the current AMOLED production. It's likely that the 8G Samsung is going to look an awful lot like the current Samsung AMOLED, not based on some theoretical OLED manufacturing techniques that have yet to pan out in the real world.

As for reducing LCD capex, that's not because of OLED. It's because TV sales are coming in 20% below forecasts and PC sales are also down. I mean it's certainly possible that someday LCD capex is going to affected by the growth that OLED. But that someday is not today.

My point was specifically about Samsung, and yes, I do think that OLED capex is impacting LCD capex with them.

I think that the rest of the industry will follow, we'll see whether that happens.

Regardless of the reasons though, the current LCD capex cuts are so drastic that they are going to impact price reductions and innovations in a few years. The estimates I have seen indicate that LCD capex is going to be almost down to 2009 levels in 2011 and that we might see another 40% cut next year. If Samsung raises their OLED capex from $5 billion next year, they might match the LCD capex of the entire industry combined.

Slacker

I thought the fact that OLEDs would be cheaper to produce was common knowledge?

I base it partly on the fact that OLED screens are far simpler to make and have less components involved. There are no backlights, and no color filters (in true OLED) for two reasons. Also there are less layers which reduces complexity of construction and cost.

OLED has the potential to be cheaper eventually but I doubt they will leap from todays, "Too expensive to build in TV sizes", to cheaper than LCDs in a mere 5 years.

Economical TV sized OLED manufacturing remains a hurdle as the methods for producing cell phone OLEDs do not scale to TVs.

TV sized OLED have to get here first before we can make any prediction beyond too far away.

LG denies deal with Apple for OLED TV


Kwon Young-soo
LG Display CEO
By Kim Yoo-chul

With a firm belief in its domination of the smartphone and tablet markets, Apple, the U.S.-based consumer electronics firm, has shifted its sights to the tentatively named "Apple TV."

But possibilities are currently very low that the iPhone maker will use an advanced and brighter display that could eventually replace the current liquid crystal display (LCD) screens on its upcoming televisions, sources directly involved with the matter said, Monday.

“It’s true that Apple has keen interest in TV, allowing users to stream music, videos and TV shows via iTunes, though that needs some iPhone and iPad integration, however, Apple is still pessimistic about using OLED displays,” said one source.

“Because Apple is worried over higher costs and technology-related issues linking to large-sized OLED displays, it is groundless that Apple has asked LG Display to supply its OLED screens for its upcoming televisions,” added the source.

OLED allows display manufacturers to produce exceptionally thin TVs without hurting picture quality. But the screen is still not suitable for TVs due to pending issues.

Limited life span, color balance-related issues, an efficiency of blue OLED _ vital for the success of OLED replacing LED and screen burn-in are regarded the headaches, making Apple hesitate to use the displays on Apple TV.

The sources claimed Apple may use picture quality-enhanced and tech-sharpened LCD displays for its televisions, as there are minor differences between OLEDs and LCDs at least to general consumers who don’t have much knowledge of displays.

``Apple has a track record of sticking to proven technology in its products and it’s unlikely that Apple will change the years-long stance for televisions,’’ said another source who was only identified as a high-ranking industry executive.

Not surprisingly, Apple didn’t comment, while LG Display spokesman Frank Lee declined to confirm whether it has held discussions with Apple on the issue.

Apple and LG Display were said to have had discussions about access to a new 55-inch LG OLED panel that will be used in Apple TV after LG chief executive Kwon Young-soo said the Korean display-making giant plans to launch such a display sometime in mid-2012.

LG Display is Apple’s most critical partner. Apple CEO Steve Jobs praised LG’s so-called ``Retina Display,’’ used in iPhones and LG has been in the process of supplying advanced LCD screens for Apple’s upcoming tablet _ the iPad 3.

Woori Investment & Securities, a leading local brokerage, has predicted that Apple’s portion of LG Display’s operating profit for this year will soar to 45.1 percent, while the Apple contribution to LG’s total revenues for 2011 was estimated at 18.3 percent.

Park Young-joo, an analyst from the brokerage, said in a report to clients that LG Display is still the biggest display supplier to Apple.

Apple’s contribution to LG’s annual revenue and operating profit last year was 12 percent and 26.9 percent, respectively, Park said in the report.

Despite Apple’s reluctance to adopt LG OLED TV technology, market analysts and LG officials say that wouldn’t be a further blow to LG Display, which was struggling amid the drastic downturn in the global LCD market.

Because yields of 55-inch OLED will be significantly lower and prices will be astronomical during the ramp-up, only a few technology geeks may pay big premiums to buy the set, according to officials.

“Apple has no interest in using OLED screens on its popular devices. The upcoming iPad 3 will also adopt picture quality-enhanced LCD screens, while the next iPhone will follow suit. Three or four more years will be needed to see OLED-embedded digital devices from Apple,” said a top-level executive from one of Apple’s suppliers.
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news...133_93261.html

So well put.

It's worth noting, also, that just because something is simpler, doesn't mean it will be cheaper.

And quite frankly, we'll see how the cost curves pan out once the TVs actually do arrive. If the average cost to manufacture does decline on a much steeper slope and there are no showstoppers, we might be able to project 2-3 years into OLED TV development how many more years out it will be before OLED TVs catch up with LCD TVs on manufacturing cost.

I doubt LCD TV manufacturing cost has hit rock bottom however. And I doubt we've seen the last of the innovations in that regard. For the moment, it's a given that edge light is cheaper because (and I'm guessing here), it's using less wiring and allowing the creation of very similar light modules to be combined with plastic light guides for TV illumination. It also might use slightly fewer LEDs because an LED can be "borrowed" for anywhere along the horizontal, say, which can't be achieved in a full array set.

It's possible to imagine a future design with a backplane that includes pre-wired LEDs and a layer of whatever brightness enhancing films already pre-laminated on. (I suppose this design could apply to edge lighting too, the backplane would include the light guides.) That would cut out several assembly steps but also make manufacturing tolerances much tighter. If I can imagine a change like this, you can bet people who do this for a living have imagine 100 for future LCD production.

For what it's worth, although LCD panels are already exceptionally cheap, I don't believe the mfrs. have given up on getting them at least somewhat cheap. Annual declines of 20-30% are probably quite over. But raw 60-inch panels appear to be down in the universe of $400 (again, guessing, based on what is knowable as consumer with an understanding of markups) maybe it's a bit higher or lower. Is $200 possible? I really don't know. Is it completely impossible? I'm not willing to state that either.

@hughh
That Korea Times author is a notorious shill for all things that LG or Samsung want to have reported as "news"

5 months ago he was spouting on about some supposedly key OLED patents that were invalidated, and how OLED is going to be far better than LCD:
(url deleted b/c first time poster)

And 2 months ago he assured investors that Samsung SDI won't sell their lucrative investments in OLED: (url deleted b/c first time poster)

@rogo

Considering that the Samsung 8G is a pilot line, and the 4.5G uses FMM, which apparently won't work for 8G, it seems silly to say the 8G will likely use the same methods already in use (with the caveat that it's unclear what method is being used at the 5.5G)

Well, here's another article, but nothing new to add:

No OLED Apple devices until “three or four more years”, market sources warn

Christian Zibreg Apple Inc Discussion (5)
August 22, 2011 at 6:20 am

A report from July by notoriously unreliable Smarthouse that Apple may be partnering with LG on a rumored 55-inch Apple television has been debunked by LG Display CEO Kwon Young-Soo. The exeuctive denied the alleged partnership as “Apple is still pessimistic about using OLED displays”, per an OLED-Display.net story.

Likewise, a Korea Times article from this morning cited market sources underscoring “currently very low” chances of Apple tapping OLED displays over cost concerns.

Complete article:
http://9to5mac.com/2011/08/22/no-ole...-sources-warn/

The first line of the 5.5G fab is using FMM. SMD is supposedly going to start up a 5.5G LITI line in the next six months but I dont think the company itself has ever confirmed it.

One sign of LITI might be the rumors about a >300ppi AMOLED display. That isnt supposed to be possible using FMM,

Everything I have read about the 8G fab seems like complete speculation.

Slacker

I've heard the same LITI rumors (not that it's an accomplishment to hear a rumor), and it would be nice to have LITI confirmed so the glass ceiling supposedly at 5.5G can be broken through - "supposedly" b/c 2G was supposed to be the FMM limit.

(as an aside, I've heard that 8G won't work for FMM because gravity distorts the substrate too much, but I've never heard a comment one way or the other that explicitly addresses whether that same distortion will affect LITI. Given the presumably miniscule tolerances involved with holding a depositing medium so close to a substrate, it seems at least possible that LITI would have the same problem)

Just saw this article...

High costs hampering OLED TV prospects

Siu Han, Taipei; Joy Wan, DIGITIMES [Monday 22 August 2011]

OLED TV's manufacturing cost and retail price will decide whether it can rise to popularity among consumers, according to players in Taiwan's LCD panel industry.

LG Display (LGD) is said to be starting volume production of OLED TV panels in second-half 2012, with a monthly output of 30,000 units. LGD reportedly plans to introduce 55-inch OLED TV panels in 2012.

OLED's applications in large-area displays have been talk of the industry for several years, said sources from backlight unit (BLU) maker Coretronic. But the manufacturing cost of OLED TVs will be difficult to cut down if large-size OLED panels fail to overcome hurdles in manufacturing capacity and in technology, the sources said.

Lextar Electronics chairman David Su said the rise of OLED TVs will not pose an overnight threat to the existing LCD TVs because it will take time for OLED TVs to reduce market prices. Lextar said panel makers would need to change their manufacturing processes for OLED applications, and OLED production would be slow to yield return on investment. So OLED TVs are expected to be sold with hefty prices, said Su.

AU Optronics (AUO) vice president Paul Peng said that large-area OLED panels still face difficulties in mass production, adding that the yield rate is low and manufacturing processes are yet to be standardized. He noted that large-area OLED panels will not be able to rival LCD ones before 2014 because of cost issues, and he also has doubts about large-area OLED panels entering mass production prior to 2014.
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20110822PD200.html

Sunidrem, fair point, I stand corrected. My suspicion is that they will use the same production techniques on both the 5.5G and 8G fabs. If they do not, the notion that the 8G fab will have volume production anytime soon is nothing short of fanciful, however (read: pre-2014).

I'm not familiar with the tech involved, but analysts assure me 8G process is different from 4.5G. Which all the more make sense SMD use 5.5G as transition, and LGD being delusional on jumping from 3.5G->8G. If 5.5G utilisation is good we likely will have 8G ramp in 1H13, which means we will have large size 40" TV (at premium price) by Christmas 2013.

We spoke at length on LGD smoking pot and Sony half-hearted interest in OLED. Suffice to say there is only one game in town, that is SMD. Watch SMD rather than what the others say, from CMI to LGD. It is easy for them to talk and criticise, but the proof is always in the pudding.

I think technically OLED production at reasonable yield should be cheaper than LCD. But the problem is the capex is more than just "a bit higher" when a 5.5G plant cost $2.5b, which is something I don't understand fully and probably process and "scarcity" related which I will need to find out more. OLED will likely remain higher priced for the next 5 years at least until depreciation finishes, as businesses don't just look at EBITDA cashflow but also payback period for their ROI, which certainly includes capex.

I get the distinct impression that Chi Mei intends to follow Samsung to market, leveraging off whatever they are doing. Presumably a fair amount of the equipment used will come from third parties and they'll be able to watch what Samsung does and perhaps learn a trick or two along the way. They made it fairly clear they are in no hurry nor do they believe it's especially viable to jump in anytime soon (for them).

Overall, whatever inputs are needed to build this stuff that are unique to OLED are going to get a lot cheaper when it's LG, CMI and Samsung as opposed to just one of them. One telling thing to look out for, I suppose, would be a lack of investment in next-gen LCD fabs from some of these folks in favor of OLED fabs. That would be the single most predictive statement about the future.

It sounds to me that building the first 5.5G fab is astronomically expensive probably because whatever processes they are using are new and so they are building first of their kind production lines. Furthermore, yields are likely quite a bit worse for quite some time than whatever Samsung is now used to from the older fab. Obviously, time and production will correct that, but expect it to repeat it again as the 8G ramps.

Learning curve will have to be reset again if the process is different but having an existing fab always help.

The reason why subsequent ramp by competitors are usually easier because the equipment makers transfer the experience... It's not as if SMD will share their experience with competitors


If you recall, CMI had cost me ever since I know ahead they are doing pilot OLED and LCD for Apple. And now after almost 1 year later they are finally doing LCD for Apple. I'm not holding my breath for OLED from them.

Yes, understood.

That's precisely what I was getting at.

Nor am I; I just expect it to trail behind Samsung a year or two.

I cant comment on every step of the process but every source I have read indicates that the main processes for the initial ramp for the 5.5G fab are the same. Samsung is again using vacuum thermal deposition with a fine metal mask (FMM). I expect yields to ramp quickly.

OTOH, you are right that the Gen 8 fab is a whole new ballgame. That is why the first 5.5G fab has a huge production capacity while the first Gen 8 fab is a pilot facility.

Slacker

I really need to see some functional diagrams of OLED to even begin to understand what's going on, slacker. I imagine it's basically a backplane not horribly dissimilar (of course not the same either) from TFT LCD but instead of the generic transistors you wind up with one of the three OLEDs. If you know of any nifty internet diagrams let me know.

Totally unrelated, the cool kids at Digitimes are reporting that Apple is using Samsung, LG and Sharp for the Retina iPad3 display with LG in the #1 slot and Sharp being given a chance to overtake Samsung as #2. Obviously, it's Digitimes so take it all with a grain of salt.

Given the proximity to A6 production and the fact that absolutely everyone has been wrong about how soon iPhone 5 (probably iPhone 4S) was/is going to ship, I am quite skeptical iPad 3 is shipping before Q2 and without an A6. Maybe I'm misinterpreting the need for the better microprocessor/SOC there, but moving 4x as many pixels seems like exactly why you'd want it.

Put me in the camp of iPad 3 in April/May.

FMM/Shadow Mask is one of the major hurdles to production. There are problems with accuracy in large size masks.

http://www.koreaittimes.com/story/12...eady-tv-market
The challenge is with deposition equipment, however; no deposition equipment that could use 5.5th generation of glass substrate has been developed yet. It is possible to build such equipment, but the technology that uses shadow mask is a critical bottleneck in deposing the emitting materials.

The minimal I got from that horrible Korean to English translation is: work needs to be done.

Samsung wins OLED licensing deal


Cho Soo-in, right, Samsung Mobile Display chief executive, shakes hands with UDC CEO Steven Abramson at a Seoul hotel, Tuesday, after the companies formed an alliance for OLED screens. / Courtesy of Samsung Mobile Display

By Kim Yoo-chul

Korea's industrial powerhouse Samsung has secured a good springboard for faster growth and development of next-gen displays after its flat-screen affiliate was entering a licensing period over some patents with a U.S.-based company.

On Tuesday, Samsung Mobile Display (SMD) said it has inked a comprehensive patent-licensing deal with Universal Display Corp (UDC). SMD is a joint venture with Samsung Electronics and Samsung SDI.

The agreement is more than crucial for Samsung Mobile Display because the Nasdaq-listed UDC was holding more than 1,000 patents in phosphorescent materials, which are vital for organic LED or OLED screens.

Because the materials could boost the brightness and energy efficiency for OLED screens, which are expected to increasingly supplant LCD displays, Samsung has no choice but to pay royalties to the American company.

"With the technology support from UDC, SMD will develop advanced and quality-improved OLED products further, and it's also been expected for a cost-saving thanks to the deal," said senior SMD spokesman Kim Ho-jeong.

But Kim declined to unveil further financial details, citing the sensitivity of the issue.

OLED screens are regarded as the next-generation displays that will eventually replace the current LCD screens. OLEDs are much brighter and thinner than LCDs, however their higher price is still regarded as the biggest drawback over market expansion.

SMD is the industry's biggest OLED manufacturer that mostly supplies the screens to Samsung Electronics. The Galaxy S smartphone variants are using OLED screens.

Amid the saturation of the current LCD market, Samsung is heavily pushing OLED business as an apparent strategy to enjoy more of a "first-mover advantage" in the growing and very lucrative market.

Although SMD is ideally positioned to boost its OLED business, the joint venture has been paying "millions of dollars" to UDC in return for using UDC-patented PH materials.

"The developments could allow firms based in Asia, such as Samsung and LG, to manufacture OLEDs without having to pay royalties to UDC for materials used," said a fund manager from a U.S.-based top-level investment bank in Seoul.

SMD is expanding its output of OLED screens to meet the rising demand from local and overseas clients. This year's investment projection from SMD was 5.4 trillion won ― a record amount on an annual basis.

The licensing deal comes months after The Korea Times exclusively reported that three UDC patents were invalidated in Japan and that these patents were also being challenged in Korea by Duksan Hi-Metal and in Europe.

Duksan Hi-Metal was still taking legal action as the local materials-producing company has been blocked from manufacturing phosphorescent materials as a result of the patents held by UDC.

In response to the report, UDC CEO Steven Abramson then said that their patents were under challenge in several areas, and they had expected it to remain so in the future, this is part of the game.

"UDC also welcomed the decision," said Kim from SMD.

The global market in OLEDs in terms of total revenue will rise to $13 billion by 2013, from an estimated $4.1 billion, according to data from DisplaySearch, a market research firm. SMD was dominating the market.
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news...129_93313.html

A6 is sampling at TSMC. iPad supply chain is starting to ramp up. Jan launch & shipping is totally possible.

What is peculiar to me, independent of the market news, is that Apple usually don't launch products close to Christmas (while competitors like to launch around Sep-Oct) due to operational bottle neck. Now we see iPhone coming Oct launch and iPad3 ramping.

iPad3 is definitely not launching January. Even if announced in January, it won't ship till February. And I still find that unlikely.

My confusion around A6 is that every media report on it sampling at TSMC says "production in Q2 of next year". I would presume it could come sooner than that, but the reports are all consistent.

*SEC announced today that it will shift its business strategy from the current 'Fast-Follower' strategy (quickly incorporating advanced economy technologies) to a 'First-Mover' strategy (developing leading technologies ahead of advanced economies and creating new markets). It is highlighting that the co' will not fall behind the 'speed' competition with cos' such as Google and HP recently undergoing M&A activities. With criticisms of Korea's no.1 image of 'high-speed' fading due to the opening of the wireless-era, SEC is taking this challenge head-on and expects to spill-over change+innovation- led competition to other companies going forward.

*First-Mover strategy will kick-off with its upcoming LTE premium smartphones where it incorporates world's first HD-AMOLED dispay in its 2 models to be released in September and October. Furthermore, it will apply AMOLED displays on its upcoming Smart-Pad products where the mkt is expected to accelerate from 18mn units sold in 2010 to 59mn (2011) and 150mn (2015): rise of 53% per annum with Apple and SEC already formed as the 2 major players.
-Woori Investment

When will a 40" OLED come for under $3k?