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OLED TVs: Technology Advancements Thread - Page 146

post #4351 of 9446
No problem, seemed a little snarky...so I had to assume it was one of those pet peeve type irritations. wink.gif

Yes, 55" is my understanding, too...60" just sounds more like a projection of one's wishes onto a product launch/lineup.
post #4352 of 9446
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie97 View Post

No problem, seemed a little snarky...so I had to assume it was one of those pet peeve type irritations. wink.gif
Yes, 55" is my understanding, too...60" just sounds more like a projection of one's wishes onto a product launch/lineup.

The LG 'Manifesto' 60" is at the very start of the video.
What do you think they mean by 'comming soon?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRLRp1vGvfA&feature=player_embedded
post #4353 of 9446
Quote:
Originally Posted by markrubin View Post

Thank you for the reprieve smile.gif

I will always consider you a friend.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonyfan View Post

The LG 'Manifesto' 60" is at the very start of the video.
What do you think they mean by 'comming soon?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRLRp1vGvfA&feature=player_embedded

In LG parlance, coming soon means "sometime within the next decade."
post #4354 of 9446
lol, that is such a minuscule (and cryptic) reference, you have to be on your toes to catch it.
post #4355 of 9446
I actually think the 60" reference is probably nothing more than a typo. They certainly do plan to do larger displays, but nothing indicates that is as much a priority as ramping production of the 55".
post #4356 of 9446
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

I actually think the 60" reference is probably nothing more than a typo. They certainly do plan to do larger displays, but nothing indicates that is as much a priority as ramping production of the 55".


It's only 5" more.
Would it be that much harder to manufacture?
post #4357 of 9446
I would think everything from 32" to 90" in 3 years, they're just dipping their toes in the water this year.
post #4358 of 9446
to 90" in 3 years.

biggrin.gif
post #4359 of 9446
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonyfan View Post

It's only 5" more.
Would it be that much harder to manufacture?

Yes. It's harder than you might think. The substrate is either cut into 55s or 60s. The yield-improvement is then separate for each line because the backplanes, while similar, are a different ratio. No process is a lot harder, every process is a little harder. But mostly it splits the effort on the ramp and the ramp is clearly challenging. Of all the outcomes in the short run, one of the least likely is 55 and 60. That just doesn't make a lot of sense from any standpoint. Now, eventually? Of course.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orbitron View Post

I would think everything from 32" to 90" in 3 years, they're just dipping their toes in the water this year.

In 3 years? No. In the long run? Sure. Although I'm not persuaded OLED is heading down as low as 32" TVs perhaps anytime, well, ever. By the time OLED is actually cost competitive with LCD, 32" TVs are going to be a low-margin backwater. In the same way you don't see many high-end subcompact autos, I'm not sure anyone is worried about 32" OLED TVs. And as for 90", not off of 8G... And there are no current plans for 10G. So for the time being, we can reasonably expect to see sizes capped around 60", with the possibility of a very low volume 70ish" TV around mid decade. LG does produce some tiny number of 70+" panels off an 8G LCD fab (and also some 65s, but evidence is that's from an older line that perhaps amounts to excess capacity because it's certainly not being used for anything state of the art and the industry in general has too much build capacity), but it's really tiny. Much of what goes on in OLED is similar, production-wise (color filters, TFT backplanes) so until/unless you hear they are building 10G, I wouldn't get very excited for sizes over 60".

Now, again, in the long run this can and will change. In the medium term, I'd look for a small reach up in size and a small reach down perhaps to 50". Showing off cool tech on tiny displays isn't likely going to work well, especially during the time they are really expensive. LG needs to move volume (as does Samsung) so targeting volume sizes will be essential.
post #4360 of 9446
Straight from the LG horse's mouth. See if you can figure out what this means. I hope it means we'll have to start a new OLED Panel discussion forum.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/752381-lg-display-ceo-discusses-q2-2012-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
post #4361 of 9446
Some of the Korean to English combined with the transcription being hardly error free makes it tricky, but here's one thing you can glean:

They have the capacity to make 8K substrates per month, maximum, out of the TV fab. That fab is the Gen 8 pilot. They specifically did not announce any investment beyond that. "...the scale and timing of the additional investment for the larger size OLED, will be decided while considering the two factors. It should satisfy needs to greater, larger size OLED earlier while reducing opportunity cost in LCD business." In other words, to make more OLEDs they have to make fewer LCDs (for the time being) and they also don't want to make too many OLEDs for the market.

Anyway, a Gen 8 fab makes 6 x 55" panels per sheet, making the theoretical maximum capacity of LG's current and announced OLED production equal to 48,000 units per month at 100% yield, Obviously, yields will be nowhere near 100% and by accounts from DisplaySearch et al., it's likely they are currently closer to 50%. Extrapolating this out for 2013 suggests that LG anticipates shipping somewhere around 250,000-300,000 OLED TVs next year (around 1/2 of the theoretical maximum they can make). While it's possible they will add capacity that is usable for production before the end of 2013, there is no reason to believe that will happen. What is instead more likely is they will decide in 2013 to add capacity that will come online in 2014. This is not some binary switch that gets flipped. These conversions take time and money.

As things currently stand, I would state with some degree of certainty that LG's own internal forecasting for OLED TVs for 2013 is below 500,000 units, probably comfortably so. But that's not discouraging, necessarily, it's a beginning. Keep in mind the TV market is about 250 million units annually, so LG's target is likely below 0.25% of the industry total. Samsung's 2013 target is much harder to guess at. Together, however, the two are unlikely to supply 1% of TVs in 2013 using OLED. By 2014, that ought to change.
post #4362 of 9446
Who cares about that jive, when is the bloody 55" going to ship to the USA?
post #4363 of 9446
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonyfan View Post

Who cares about that jive, when is the bloody 55" going to ship to the USA?

This is the "technology advancements" thread. "That jive" is core to the discussion.

As for when the "bloody 55" is coming to the USA, the answer is still unknown. I'm less persuaded it's coming this year as the days pass. Others believe what they want to believe.
post #4364 of 9446
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonyfan View Post

Who cares about that jive, when is the bloody 55" going to ship to the USA?

Tomorrow.
post #4365 of 9446
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tazishere View Post

Tomorrow.

Today actually - http://www.lg.com/us/tvs/lg-55EM9700-oled-tv
post #4366 of 9446
Quote:
Originally Posted by rgb32 View Post

Today actually - http://www.lg.com/us/tvs/lg-55EM9700-oled-tv

That link seems to go nowhere. What did it say?

Am guessing it was a spec page that got pulled... Regardless, that wouldn't answer the "when" question, sadly.
post #4367 of 9446
sadly the skeptics here seen to have been correct about when the oled sets will appear.

lg will probably have some out by years end, but sammy is apparently having manufacturing issues
and i wouldn't expect to see anything from them till next year.
post #4368 of 9446
From DisplaySearch via Venture Beat:
http://venturebeat.com/2012/08/15/oled-displays-to-hit-44b-by-2019-with-growth-in-tvs-and-mobile-devices/

I'm just going to keep linking back to these posts until they start to look foolish:

http://www.avsforum.com/t/1382413/lg-official-announces-55-oled-for-ces/330#post_21544891

"I am also feeling a lot better about my prior prediction that LCD will control more than half the display market in 2020" ....

The display market today is much larger than $88 billion. There are 250 million TVs, >300 million PC sales, >600 million touchscreen phone sales....GIA says it will be $110 billion by 2017 (easiest reference to find on market size).

So, yeah, by decade's end OLED should be getting to the halfway point. When I suggested this months ago, the very idea that it could take that long was roundly mocked. Yet my methodology was to use information I already had. People here continue to claim I "know nothing".

The record speaks for itself.
Edited by rogo - 8/22/12 at 1:47pm
post #4369 of 9446
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

That link seems to go nowhere. What did it say?
Am guessing it was a spec page that got pulled... Regardless, that wouldn't answer the "when" question, sadly.

Hehe… Sorry, just having fun here (http://www.lg.com/us/tvs/lg-55LM9600-led-tv -> http://www.lg.com/us/tvs/lg-55EM9700-oled-tv)

biggrin.gif

I'm not expecting to see any OLED TVs in a Magnolia AV/HT this year, but then again the OLED PVM/BVM monitors are still shipping, right?
post #4370 of 9446
Quote:
Originally Posted by rgb32 View Post

Hehe… Sorry, just having fun here (http://www.lg.com/us/tvs/lg-55LM9600-led-tv -> http://www.lg.com/us/tvs/lg-55EM9700-oled-tv)
biggrin.gif

Gotcha. smile.gif
Quote:
I'm not expecting to see any OLED TVs in a Magnolia AV/HT this year, but then again the OLED PVM/BVM monitors are still shipping, right?

From LG? Not that I know of. Sony's broadcast stuff is, of course, available.
post #4371 of 9446
Quote:
Originally Posted by rgb32 View Post

Hehe… Sorry, just having fun here (http://www.lg.com/us/tvs/lg-55LM9600-led-tv -> http://www.lg.com/us/tvs/lg-55EM9700-oled-tv)
biggrin.gif
I'm not expecting to see any OLED TVs in a Magnolia AV/HT this year, but then again the OLED PVM/BVM monitors are still shipping, right?



there may not be a magnolia around next year.
post #4372 of 9446
If Gen 8 yields (6) 55" displays, couldn't they do (3) 110" displays? If so, i would show it at CES, press would go ape sh**.
post #4373 of 9446
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orbitron View Post

If Gen 8 yields (6) 55" displays, couldn't they do (3) 110" displays? If so, i would show it at CES, press would go ape sh**.

No, you need to sacrifice four 55s to get a single 110". I'll let you draw it out yourself to see why.

You could certainly build a prototype, but this wouldn't be viable for any kind of mass production.
post #4374 of 9446
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orbitron View Post

If Gen 8 yields (6) 55" displays, couldn't they do (3) 110" displays? If so, i would show it at CES, press would go ape sh**.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

No, you need to sacrifice four 55s to get a single 110". I'll let you draw it out yourself to see why.
You could certainly build a prototype, but this wouldn't be viable for any kind of mass production.

That's how TCL came out with a 4k 110" LCD TV.

But they have to perfect OLED yield at 55" first (not to mention the price) to even try doing that ie no chance in the next 3 years at least
post #4375 of 9446
Their main focus now should be on getting the 55 units shipped, and waiting to see how well they are received, since they are going to be very expensive. It is not a given that the demand will be large enough for to allow them to scale up production numbers. Pioneer never got over that hurdle with their Kuro product, and had to give up on it altogether.
post #4376 of 9446
Quote:
Originally Posted by greenland View Post

Their main focus now should be on getting the 55 units shipped, and waiting to see how well they are received, since they are going to be very expensive..

I'm sure you are correct that is their main focus.
post #4377 of 9446
Quote:
Originally Posted by pds3 View Post

This thread was started way back in 2006 and yet there are still no OLED televisions of any decent size on the market to speak of. At this point in time I can't help but wonder if there ever will be???

Actually, things seemed to suddenly heat up earlier this year. Things are now happening faster than I, for one, expected. I didn't expect anything to ship to consumers before 2015.
post #4378 of 9446
Quote:
Originally Posted by navychop View Post

Actually, things seemed to suddenly heat up earlier this year. Things are now happening faster than I, for one, expected. I didn't expect anything to ship to consumers before 2015.

I kind of agree with you. But I understand where the comment you responded to was coming from as well....

Hopefully, the logjam is breaking.
post #4379 of 9446
post #4380 of 9446
Quote:
Originally Posted by filmoreXXX View Post

http://channelnews.com.au/Display/Industry/E6F9T6Q8

WHAT???? Is this for real? Not releasing OLED (in Australia)?
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