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Originally Posted by
David_B 
Only LG knows what the yields are.
Yes, they could in fact be around 10%. What they are not is 90%. Or anywhere near it. Regardless of what people would like to fantasize about.
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Full Capacity is whatever they feel comfortable with running the line at too.
Full capacity is 8000 substrates per month with 6 panels per substrate. That's public information and confirmed by LG again with their recent announcements. No one ever goes from zero to full capacity in the first month, so we can rule that out. And since yields reduce
available units for sale, we can draw accurate assessments of how many TVs they can possibly make.
Max capacity * utilization * yield for each month is the value.
Over the 12 months of 2013, the utilization will likely reach 100% (perhaps even fairly quickly, however it's a function of yield. You don't just push utilization to 100% if yield is 10% unless you want to file bankruptcy.) Yield will likely rise monthly. My estimate is that yield will start around 50% -- and this is based on comments made by DisplaySearch and others about the current state of costs combined with what we know about the current immaturity of IGZO in general -- and rise over the course of the year. It's very possible I'm optimistic on initial yield.
Regardless, as I do, in fact, understand how all this works contrary to the endless trolling of some people would have some believe, I think LG's forecast is probably around 25K units per month -- until additional production goes online. They have not yet announced additional production and for information on tracking that, I rely on reading news reports as well as the fact that Specuvestor and slacker711 track that kind of thing. Until we hear from one of those sources that additional production has been committed,
we can correctly assume it has not been.
- before Cost & Reliability (Life Span) even begin to reach those of today's sets...
