Thanks for the update Slacker. For the purposes of scoring the "pissing contest", we can certainly monitor next year's production of both companies to decide whether the products truly became available in 2013. But that said, it really sounds like 2014 is shaping up to be "most probably the year of the OLED assuming the companies invest in fabs".
While the following is not in any way directed at you, this kind of shell game is what's been going on for a decade. Yes, yes, everything is much more tangible now. But given that 2012 was "release year" and the there are all sorts of press mentions of "Olympics" "50,000 units per month" "comparable pricing to LCDs"etc. etc., it's hard for me to not think, this is precisely where my pessimistic forecasts of a year or two ago came from. Essentially, we exit 2012 as we entered it: without any product. We now go into 2013 facing the real prospect of very, very tight availability throughout the year, which will be fine because it's almost certainly going to be accompanied by astronomical pricing.
Do you have any sense of what you might think that "reasonable" 2014 set will run? Are we talking $5,000?
I ask only because it appears the very top end of the 55" LCD market currently sits around $3000 in the U.S. (perhaps a small bit more at full-priced retail; which is a bit like saying, "but if you're a T.Rex, you might also want meteor insurance...."). It's possible, I suppose, that the market will remain that high for 2 years, but somewhat likely it will come down to at most about $2500 over 2 years -- if not lower. A $5,000 TV would, therefore, still be 2x as expensive as the most expensive product in the category and approximately 7-8x as expensive as the least.
By way of comparison, the Sharp Elites are currently less expensive than that and comprise something significantly under 1% of the total sales volume. Of course, part of that is due to distribution, although a $5,000 OLED would have the same issues. Most of it is due to the fact that people will not pay that premium for a TV. I'm not sure where pricing needs to be on a relative basis, but it seems to me that at $5,000 volumes are seriously capped.
Furthermore, by 2014, it seems more than likely that 4K LCDs will be generally available in large sizes and if the OLEDs are being sold at 2K, that looks to be a very powerful sales disadvantage. Yes, yes, I know the proponents are thinking, "No way, people will see the OLED is better." And my response is, "Or they will see the LCD has more resolution. Or, more likely, they will see both of them as really good and wonder what the premium is about."
The OLED TV era is once again stumbling to get its footing.