Originally Posted by ynotgoal
I have better things to do than argue with you Rogo but I take offense to the lying statement which you also made in reference to an earlier post of mine, so I'll make this one reply.
So your position is they went from "shockingly bad" single digit yields to "significantly better" 20% and decided to release them in less than 3 weeks? Ok.
Dude, get a grip. There is nothing directed at you in any post that accuses you of lying.
I'll agree with you that "many [here] felt it would be much sooner", probably in part due to your statements.
The actual plans from Samsung and LG, however, were to build the pilot lines in 2012 and have real production lines in early 2014.
Hmm, now I'll just stay you are wrong. Lying? No. But definitely 100% wrong. What do you think they were going to do in 2013? They were supposed to build 8G production last year
. It was telegraphed over and over. It just was never funded.
It's also true that date has likely slipped to late 2014, still depending on market reaction to these TVs.
I have no idea where you get 2014 or "market reaction". There is no market reaction. They have not shipped one TV. Not one.
You can choose your own definition of "massively" however the definition of lying is pretty clear and my statement regarding the plans outlined by Samsung and LG are not one.
Again, you need some serious grippage. The statement in my post above is generic. It is not an accusation that anyone is lying, least of all you.
I'll refer you to some LG conference calls which clearly imply a decision to build a pilot line in 2012 with a "promotional focus" and then to make a decision on a full 8g line following the release of the initial TVs. Both calls imply a mid 2012 release of the initial TV, which had a "massive?" 6 month delay, an OLED capex decision at the end of 2012, and an 18 month process to convert an 8g fab which gets you to an early/mid 2014 date for real production.
First of all, I love the way you ignore Samsung and pretend LG is the only company we're talking about.
Second of all, they have shipped zero TVs. It's not out yet. It's not a "6 month delay", and the February ship date for Korea is arguably not a real ship date. They convinced DisplaySearch last year that they'd deliver about 100,000
by the end of 2012. Samsung did the same. At this point, if each of those companies deliver that many in 2013, it'll be an achievement. I'd call that a good year delay. But really it's worse because the way they were talking at CES last year
, you'd believe these products were going to impact the TV market sometime soon. And, my God, Samsung has hyped their 8G OLED plans since early last year (if not before). Have they committed any
of that money yet? I'm not sure, to be honest, but I don't think so.
Third of all, LG has suggested production was planned for 2013 numerous times, like here: http://www.flatpanelshd.com/review.php?subaction=showfull&id=1296654131
Fourth of all, here's a reference to the existing
8G "pilot" production: http://consumerelectronicsdaily.com/Content/LG-Display-starts-pilot-production-on-8G-OLED-TV-panel-line.aspx
referencing 4000 substrates per month. That's 24,000 TVs per month with 100% yield or 300K just from that one pilot line
. That was as of August of last year
Fifth of all, here's a reference from last January http://www.semi.org/en/node/40381
. "LG OLED panel production capacity is currently at 24K substrates per month at 4.5G and 8K per month at 8G". The forecast in that article was for more than 1 million views in 2013. Where was that capacity coming from? Thin air? Obviously, everyone was led to believe the capacity would exist. The 2014 forecast was for 5 million TVs. That means the capacity needed to exist before
2014. That's 400,000 TVs per month. Again, thin air won't make that.
Sixth of all, the price to sell even 1 million TVs globally is well below the original guess of $8000
. Surely everyone understands that right? There is no way to move -- even globally -- 1 million 55" TVs at $8000-10,000. The most expensive 55" TV for sale at Best Buy (conventional TVs, not outdoor sets) is $3200. Most are much less. The global market for TVs as big as 55" is currently on the order of 25 million units total. (It's less, but I'm giving some slack to the equation). We can try to guess what price it would take to move 1 million "BMW" TVs, but one thing you can know
is that at $10,000, there is simply not any chance in hell of this happening
In addition to pricing the TV such that they don't have to produce many to satisfy demand
, LG is alone in the market right now. Samsung -- it should be noted -- has obviously not solved their production problems at all. Further, the idea that the $10,000 price is some temporary aberration that will be "corrected" in a few months is something we can dismiss out of hand. That's the price for the better part (if not the entirety of) 2013. While, again, it's a ridiculous game to guess what the next price will be, we know they've been talking about price parity with LCD as "coming soon". Dating back to 2009, we've heard this promise from LG, that OLED will be cheaper by 2016. "OLED panels will cost less than LCD panels in 2016." That literally means OLED will cost less than the cheapest LCD. So we have to more or less get from $10,000 to $1,000 in 4 years. Do you think anyone really believes that's happening? What's the 2014 price on the path to that?
The idea that these TV have not slipped massively is patent absurd.