Originally Posted by taichi4
We're not lawyers, and you are not Samuel Johnson.
It is clear that Irkuck is pessimistic, which was the thrust of my comment.
Please do not engage in ad hominem attacks to make your points. Your comment about English not being my first language is deliberately provocative and insulting.
Actually, that couldn't be farther removed from the truth. You claimed people predicted the "demise" of the technology, which means "death". It has no other common meanings. Then you quoted a post about "facing a threat" as a death prediction. Those aren't the same thing. If I predict the 49ers will win the Superbowl, I'm necessarily predicting the Ravens will lose. If I predict the Ravens defense will give Kaepernick a tough time, I'm making no particular statement about the outcome. They simply aren't the same and, honestly, we have a lot of non-native English speakers here. It's an easy to make mistake when one isn't especially familiar with the language.
Apparently, you are a native English speaker, but you're also clearly not playing remotely fair here. I asked for a specific thing and instead of responding directly, you decided to just quote irkuck to make a different (albeit related) point. I'm not sure that proves anything.
Incidentally, you also don't seem to know what an ad hominem attack is. Asking whether you speak English natively or questioning whether you read carefully don't apply. An ad hominem attack that fell into either of those categories would read, "you're a dumb foreigner" or "you're too stupid to understand what I'm saying". I did neither and would not do either under any circumstances as the first of those is just plain unacceptable in civil discourse and the second clearly doesn't apply to you.
So let's just agree that (1) I didn't seek to offend you, so I'm sorry about that (2) You have not quoted anyone who predicted the failure of OLED.
Many of us are pessimistic about its prospects for world domination, but that's another matter entirely.
Originally Posted by tgm1024
Well, the tone taken toward the viability of OLED is certainly different. There were many things that at least conversationally sounded to me as arguments that OLED might never take off (largely because of the difficulty in chasing 4K and LCD advancements including IGZO). Everything was always understood as an unknown of course, but to someone not plugged into the industry (like me), it does seem like OLED is further along than many expected it would be in January 2013.
Actually, it's the opposite. After CES 2012, many of us believed that OLED was inevitable and would begin its quest toward world domination. This after years of broken promises. In the ensuing year, it has returned to breaking promises and LCD has continued to advance. The problems with OLED 3 years ago weren't IGZO and 4K, they were economies of scale and sufficient performance improvements to justify caring. Today, it's those and IGZO and 4K.
So, no, tgm, OLED is not further along than many expected in 2013. It's less far along than we all hope even as recently as the middle of 2012. It appears distinctly possible that only LG will ship a TV this year and that it will ship fewer than 100,000 units worldwide.
Originally Posted by mr. wally
correct, and its window of opportunity is closing rather rapidly.
if you can't buy an affordable 2nd gen oled set from bb or amazon by 12/14, i believe that window will be irreparably closed.
That might be true in TVs, it's hard to say. Sony, Panasonic, AUO, Samsung and countless other dreamers are hoping to go past LCD with something they can call new and somewhat unique. Will anyone care? Hard to know. Will people pay a premium for it? Well, we know the answer is: Not much of one. The muddled marketing of selling 3-D, 4K, Smart TV, and OLED when people are shifting viewing to tablets is already challenging enough. But these guys are hardheaded and won't quit easily.
I don't expect such a product by 12/14. I believe we might see such a thing by 12/15, however. Two price cuts from here gets things below $5000, i.e. <2x the price of a premium LCD of similar size. At that price, people might at least look
at the OLED.