Just to be clear, the pre-order price at Harrod's is £10,000 or $15,300 U.S. As unreasonable as the price is in Korea... as even more unreasonable as the alleged $12,000 price is in the U.S.... the U.K. price is downright stupid. I just can't imagine that people are pre-ordering it at Harrod's, especially given that I suspect the salespeople are not promising delivery.
I wish I had never been talked out of the skepticism of posts like this one:
and this one:
and this one:
and this one from 8/8/11 (why did I back off this?):
"The fact is that if Spec is hearing chatter that Samsung is delaying 8G OLED till 2013, we can almost be 100% assured it's already delayed till 2013. Why would they be investing in a tiny, niche market for high end sets given how bad the TV market is right now to try to make this real for next year? They almost certainly wouldn't. So we're back to the point where:
* LG can't actually fund volume production of OLED TVs and therefore any claims by them are almost automatically to be ignored. An affordable 50"+ OLED from LG is still 5 years or more away.
* Samsung timetable for market entry into OLED TV is back to a minimum of 2+ years from now. Plant spent in 1H13, first sampling in 2H13... First real TVs? Late 2014? First affordable 50+" OLED TVs? Sounds like 5 years away. In 5 years, high performance 60" LCDs will routinely be available for $1000 or less. How OLED is going to compete with this is not clear.
It's when you get back into this chicken-and-egg trap that you begin to understand why OLED TV can easily never reach fruition. But even if you believe that someone will spend billions on the leap of faith, you can't really believe you are buying one for 5 years or so. And we've been saying that for close to a decade now. That should tell you something."
and this one....
but more than any of them... this is the one I backed off on a ton last year and now I'm wondering why:
This is from March 23, 2011
"I don't see a chance in hell of a 55-inch OLED TV shipping at any price next year and I see the chance as very small for a high-priced one to ship in 2013. I base this on the fact that even a 15-inch will be a bridge too far in 2011 (the LG will exist, be hard to find, cost an astronomical sum, and, oh, be hard to find). I base the future predictions not on some high-minded cap ex numbers, which are driven almost 100% by mobile phones and tablets, but on the utter lack of historical precedent. Thing being made in tiny sizes doesn't suddenly become thing made in giant sizes when the history of said thing has been its very slow ramp up from even tinier sizes (the first full color OLED in a practical CE device was used on a digital camera I'm fairly sure)."
I mean, I was completely fooled
by what was demoed at CES 2012 and bought into the LG/Samsung hype show. But I should've never bothered and just stuck with what I knew to be true
. Obviously, nothing shipped in 2012. And the chance is still
small that a high-priced one will ship in 2013. I mean, it might, but it will be really
high priced and in tiny quantities -- if you can even buy one.
The lesson learned is that if you go back many thousands of posts in this thread, the information is often better than what comes later. Our intuition and knowledge was often spot on. Our ability to get snowed -- those of us who try to avoid getting snowed, that is -- was more intact. Fortunately, that skepticism is back strongly. There's a post which I think I failed to link above about "not believing the stuff is shipping until it's in Best Buy" and I'm going to keep that in mind.