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OLED TVs: Technology Advancements Thread - Page 200

post #5971 of 9429
I hope that decision really does stem from faith in OLED rather than the need to cut and run.
post #5972 of 9429
Quote:
Originally Posted by mr. wally View Post

this is a prank, right?

Yep.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich Peterson View Post

This might be old news, I'm not sure.

It is.
post #5973 of 9429
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

I would fire everyone in OLED PR or whoever is telling them to talk to the press and put out drivel like this. A 75" TV in 2013? Please. They haven't shipped the damn 55". My goodness. These people are the companies that cried OLED........

Maybe they're hoping for Mr. Wizard to fix it for them.


Quote:
Originally Posted by mikek753 View Post

......The key word is "show"
While "show" and "buy" have diff meanings, isn't it?
Is tech exist? Yes
Can I buy it? No

pick one

Nailed it.
post #5974 of 9429
A lot are inferring that 4K might have been the nail in the coffin for OLED, but that's not how I read the timeline of events. Up until Dec. of last year, the major manufacturers were aiming towards OLED as the next big thing, not 4K. It was only after it became obvious that all the problems from the poor yields to the blue degradation rate, and the overall longevity issue were making it mostly a mostly a dead end. That's when the momentum shifted to 4K. The manufacturers needed the next big thing so 4K it was. If they had been able to work out those issues earlier, OLED would be in the forefront with 4K being a very niche market.
post #5975 of 9429
OLED is a nowhere pipe dream!

Get over it!

Get ready for 4K LCD that sucks!

Who can take this horror story?
post #5976 of 9429
Quote:
Originally Posted by kdog750 View Post

A lot are inferring that 4K might have been the nail in the coffin for OLED, but that's not how I read the timeline of events. Up until Dec. of last year, the major manufacturers were aiming towards OLED as the next big thing, not 4K. It was only after it became obvious that all the problems from the poor yields to the blue degradation rate, and the overall longevity issue were making it mostly a mostly a dead end. That's when the momentum shifted to 4K. The manufacturers needed the next big thing so 4K it was. If they had been able to work out those issues earlier, OLED would be in the forefront with 4K being a very niche market.

I disagree with this analysis to some extent.

It's definitely the case that mfrs. are seeking a "next big thing". There are a couple of things in error about the timeline / series of events as I see it, though.

1) They've been pursuing OLED for at least a dozen years.

2) Ever since the first "retina" iPhone, the idea of mainstreaming higher resolution LCDs has been something gaining serious consideration. The move to 2560 x 1600 desktop monitors accelerated that trend. The idea this was coming to TV wasn't new, but the products in the marketplace in other spaces made it real. In other words, 4K was coming regardless of whether OLED was ever invented.

3) 4K, like quadrophonic sound, SACD, and other exotic formats, was always going to be a tough sell with a long curve, but unlike many before it, it's actually really easy to manufacture on the LCD side. They can build it nearly for free and yet charge a nice premium for it.

4) Nothing about the inability to manufacture OLED for television is news. The only "news" was the now apparently entirely bogus dog-and-pony show from 2012 indicating OLED TV was coming before mid-decade. That was basically nothing more than a red herring resulting from some gigantic genital-measuring contest that has been going on between Samsung and LG since the 1990s.

(Oh, and while I still suspect LG will have the first viable OLED TV; Samsung's you-know-what is bigger.)
post #5977 of 9429
Dense LCDs are becoming commodity, this is another tough problem brewing for OLED even if only from the marketing point.
post #5978 of 9429
rogo:

Right, I knew they had been working on OLED for years, with a much bigger push in the recent years to have it ready to roll out. But the article I had read last December said that LG and Samsung were shifting a large part of their resources to 4K and mostly abandoning(for now) the push into OLED,

Earlier in 2012, I had read some articles where they had talked about 4K vs. OLED. Most of the experts agreed that the manufacturers were going to opt for OLED for the next big thing because it had a much bigger visual impact than 4K. But like everything else, it all came down to money, and OLED just isn't ready for prime time yet, if ever.

I wish it had been too because I've seen the 84" 4K set in action before. I was less than impressed. I was originally blown away when I saw the first HD TV years ago displaying 720P. However, when I saw 4K diplayed, I didn't even realize it was anything higher than 1080P until I got about 4 feet away from the screen. I have 20/20 vision too and I just don't see 4K being the next big thing. But advertising is in full gear trying to convince us we need it.

And it must be working because based on what I read in the Sony 65" 4K TV thread here. Owners are claiming they are "blown away" by the 4K upscale resolution. But they either have super human acuity or are sitting 2 feet away from their sets. Or perhaps its some placebo effect happening.
post #5979 of 9429
Yeah, LG and Samsung only had 1080p OLED at CES this year and they had 4K also (but not OLED). Sony and Panasonic were the only one that had 4k OLED. Sharp did have a LCD 8K 84" on display that you could put your face to and was still clear.

I was going to post pictures from CES this year under the title "Special Displays that I saw at CES 20xx" like I used to do in the early 2000's, but I just did not have time. Maybe next year.
post #5980 of 9429
LG and Samsung are on to something. Just keep announcing the introduction of newer bigger and better OLED TV sets coming soon, and you get lots of free press, which convinces casual consumers that you are one of the very best cutting edge technology development companies, so anything with your brand name on it must surely be the very best and worth buying.

Next year they get to announce that they will soon be introducing a five hundred inch OLED set, with an infinite amount of Super Ultra Pixels, which will weigh only four grams, and can be folded into one of a myriad of different Origami Art Shapes,when not being used for TV purposes.

They got the free publicity scam idea from having read The Emperor's New Clothes by Hans Christian Andersen.
post #5981 of 9429
^Getting cynical, are we?! biggrin.gif I like that Panasonic is keeping everything close to their chest (other than the insider who says it's "easy" for them to ramp up production, which I will remain suspect about until such time that a model is launched and in stores).
post #5982 of 9429
Well, the Auto Industry has been pulling that free publicity scam for as long as I can remember. Each year they build concept cars to display at the auto shows, which they have no intention to ever bring to market, and each year the TV stations salivate over them and show them on their news, and autos show specials, as if the consumers need to see and hear about fantasy cars, that will never be on the market. wink.gif
post #5983 of 9429
True. The CEMs have done that for a while as well to be honest, typically at trade shows like the CES. wink.gif At least Tesla is doing more than blowing smoke. biggrin.gif
post #5984 of 9429
Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

Dense LCDs are becoming commodity, this is another tough problem brewing for OLED even if only from the marketing point.

Yes, and it's likely to get much worse. Within 2-3 years, only low-end LCD products won't be "dense".

Quote:
Originally Posted by kdog750 View Post

rogo:

Right, I knew they had been working on OLED for years, with a much bigger push in the recent years to have it ready to roll out. But the article I had read last December said that LG and Samsung were shifting a large part of their resources to 4K and mostly abandoning(for now) the push into OLED,

Earlier in 2012, I had read some articles where they had talked about 4K vs. OLED. Most of the experts agreed that the manufacturers were going to opt for OLED for the next big thing because it had a much bigger visual impact than 4K. But like everything else, it all came down to money, and OLED just isn't ready for prime time yet, if ever.

I think the article claiming a resource shift is something we've discussed and can't find evidence to support. It's certainly true that LG and Samsung are dipping toes in the 4K pool, but it's less clear that they are pulling and resources from OLED.
Quote:
I wish it had been too because I've seen the 84" 4K set in action before. I was less than impressed. I was originally blown away when I saw the first HD TV years ago displaying 720P. However, when I saw 4K diplayed, I didn't even realize it was anything higher than 1080P until I got about 4 feet away from the screen. I have 20/20 vision too and I just don't see 4K being the next big thing. But advertising is in full gear trying to convince us we need it.

One very, very serious problem for OLED is that it has the same problem as 4K in this regard. Many people are not going to see much of a difference. Look, I know at CES everyone goes "OMG THIS IS THE GREATEST TV EVER" when viewing the demo loops. I've been to basically every CES since the late 1990s, so I get to see all these reactions. But I also go to Best Buy and such a lot. People are just going to shrug a lot when an OLED is showing Monsters University next to a bunch of LCDs and that F8500 plasma in the corner.
Quote:
And it must be working because based on what I read in the Sony 65" 4K TV thread here. Owners are claiming they are "blown away" by the 4K upscale resolution. But they either have super human acuity or are sitting 2 feet away from their sets. Or perhaps its some placebo effect happening.

At least 4K has a spec sheet to look at. OLED has no spec to even tout, unless it's also 4K.
Quote:
Originally Posted by greenland View Post

LG and Samsung are on to something. Just keep announcing the introduction of newer bigger and better OLED TV sets coming soon, and you get lots of free press, which convinces casual consumers that you are one of the very best cutting edge technology development companies, so anything with your brand name on it must surely be the very best and worth buying.

Next year they get to announce that they will soon be introducing a five hundred inch OLED set, with an infinite amount of Super Ultra Pixels, which will weigh only four grams, and can be folded into one of a myriad of different Origami Art Shapes,when not being used for TV purposes.

They got the free publicity scam idea from having read The Emperor's New Clothes by Hans Christian Andersen.

The thing about this is that the nonsense has gone on for years. In fact, Sharp and Panasonic used to routinely trot out the world's largest this or that. Neither is guaranteed to even be in the TV business by mid-decade. So I doubt it's "working". And Samsung has been pulling this nonsense since, well, forever. They showed a 40-inch LCD for at least 3 years before you could buy it. They showed a 65-inch for a similar period of time and then again with their 75-inch.

None of it matters...

The reason Samsung succeeds is when you go to Best Buy, the wall is filled with them and you know about them because of relentless (and usually decent) marketing. Nothing wrong with that, but I doubt it's because anyone in Best Buy thinks they are shipping an OLED.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie97 View Post

True. The CEMs have done that for a while as well to be honest, typically at trade shows like the CES. wink.gif At least Tesla is doing more than blowing smoke. biggrin.gif

Tesla is a model for delivering on promises. Even when they have to delay something, they let the world know in advance. The long wait for their $35,000 car is going to be painful to sit through. I say this (a) because I want the SUV variant (model X is probably too big for me, Model S certainly is) and (b) because they are going to from niche to mainstream and forever silence the electric-car doubters. And green or not, those cars are so much better than what all of us are now driving, the beginning of the mainstreaming of them is going to make the world a better place. (And, yes, I'm also an environmentalist, but based on my time behind the wheel of a Model S, I'm at least as excited about the prospect of driving such an incredibly performing vehicle day in and day out.)
post #5985 of 9429
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie97 View Post

^Getting cynical, are we?! biggrin.gif I like that Panasonic is keeping everything close to their chest (other than the insider who says it's "easy" for them to ramp up production, which I will remain suspect about until such time that a model is launched and in stores).

Panasonic's Chief Technology Office said today they will have an OLED TV on the market in 2015. Of course that is not really going to happen in any meaningful way as he goes on to say 'we are only at the technological development stage at this point.' Also, there's no factory, no investment in a factory, no specific plans to invest in a factory, no money to invest, no plans to build production printing equipment, etc. Actually Panasonic may not be making many TVs at all for long, either LCD or plasma.

"Panasonic is also carrying out a significant scaling-back of its output of LCD and plasma screens for TV use, to the point where LCDs for tablets and other non-TV applications will account for 80% of its product by the end of this year. Currently the TV/non-TV split is around 50:50."

On the other hand, LG is spending a lot of money to build a factory and Samsung is expected to announce their investment in the next few months.
post #5986 of 9429
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Tesla is a model for delivering on promises. Even when they have to delay something, they let the world know in advance. The long wait for their $35,000 car is going to be painful to sit through. I say this (a) because I want the SUV variant (model X is probably too big for me, Model S certainly is) and (b) because they are going to from niche to mainstream and forever silence the electric-car doubters. And green or not, those cars are so much better than what all of us are now driving, the beginning of the mainstreaming of them is going to make the world a better place. (And, yes, I'm also an environmentalist, but based on my time behind the wheel of a Model S, I'm at least as excited about the prospect of driving such an incredibly performing vehicle day in and day out.)
I'm not the environmentalist type but I love using less energy and the (long-term) economic benefits that entails, so the range of 300 miles really piqued my attention in a good way. Battery technology seems to be the main roadblock to getting better range, so I hope by some miracle the forthcoming "low-end" (2015?) model will have an even greater range (this could be improved in other areas as well obviously, like with improvements in the aerodynamic design of the vehicle itself). I hope to make their low-end vehicle my next purchase based on what they're doing now. Their supercharger station installation forecast is another impressive venture that I hope they can deliver on (20 minutes for half a charge is not as convenient or quick as filling up a tank, but we're nearly there).
Quote:
Originally Posted by ynotgoal View Post

Panasonic's Chief Technology Office said today they will have an OLED TV on the market in 2015. Of course that is not really going to happen in any meaningful way as he goes on to say 'we are only at the technological development stage at this point.' Also, there's no factory, no investment in a factory, no specific plans to invest in a factory, no money to invest, no plans to build production printing equipment, etc. Actually Panasonic may not be making many TVs at all for long, either LCD or plasma.

"Panasonic is also carrying out a significant scaling-back of its output of LCD and plasma screens for TV use, to the point where LCDs for tablets and other non-TV applications will account for 80% of its product by the end of this year. Currently the TV/non-TV split is around 50:50."

On the other hand, LG is spending a lot of money to build a factory and Samsung is expected to announce their investment in the next few months.
Thanks for that, 2015 at the earliest with a prohibitive price and a highly limited number of units.
post #5987 of 9429
The only thing Panasonic seems unequivocally committed to is being a much smaller player in the TV market.

I do hope they ship something in 2015, but it's clear -- as I and others have said before -- that for them (and for that matter Sony) to be a volume player, we are looking at 2016-17 the earliest for that to happen.

It's frustrating to have been prescient on this....
post #5988 of 9429
"I think the article claiming a resource shift is something we've discussed and can't find evidence to support."

I can't find the original article but here's one from last month:

http://bgr.com/2013/05/22/samsung-lg-oled-investment-failure/

Samsung, LG reportedly rush back to LCD TVs after OLED investments fizzle
post #5989 of 9429
Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

Dense LCDs are becoming commodity, this is another tough problem brewing for OLED even if only from the marketing point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Yes, and it's likely to get much worse. Within 2-3 years, only low-end LCD products won't be "dense".

Meaning OLED will be a niche technology at best.Unless there is some breakthrough in printed wallpaper OLED.
post #5990 of 9429
Quote:
Originally Posted by kdog750 View Post

"I think the article claiming a resource shift is something we've discussed and can't find evidence to support."

I can't find the original article but here's one from last month:

http://bgr.com/2013/05/22/samsung-lg-oled-investment-failure/

Samsung, LG reportedly rush back to LCD TVs after OLED investments fizzle

The problem is, that's the same "article" we're more or less discussing, just a different link/source. Existing evidence -- in the form of financials / quarterly reports from LG and Samsung -- indicates that article is basically fiction.

Quote:
Originally Posted by greenland View Post

Samsung has done something very telling this year. They have developed and already brought to market a PLasma model that has been so drastically redesigned and improved on, from their previous Plasma models, that I doubt they would have invested so much into doing so, if they planned to have OLED ready for wide distribution within the next two or more years.

I again find myself agreeing and disagreeing. On the one hand. it's a state-of-the-art, flagship product. On the other hand, Samsung can clearly do both at the same time. It's different people working on the products.
Quote:
Their new Plasma is almost like when Pioneer made the jump from their old design to their new Kuro approach. I am not saying that the Samsung F8500 is the equal of the best Kuro, but I am saying that for Samsung it is just about as big a leap forward.

What's going to be interesting is to see whether they follow up on the F8500 with the tweaking necessarily to get rid of the flaws still present that kept the "experts" from declaring it the unequivocal winner. If they take it up another notch next year, I think that will increase the signaling value of it that much more.

I do agree with your assessment that it's a big leap for Samsung. That said, it appears to be at best overall on parity with the Panasonics, outside of the brightness. That's why I'm curious to see where it goes in 2014. Another jump forward suggests they expect the technology to carry on for several more years.
Quote:
They are also devoting a lot of attention to tending to any software issues that arise, and getting out updates to correct them on a more rapid basis than they have done in previous years. I doubt that they would have gone to all that effort to come up with such an improved Plasma product, if they did not expect to be selling more of them than OLED sets for the next few years at least. Their actions speak louder than their words about OLED as far as I can tell.

That does seem to signal a shift. If nothing else, it shows Samsung committed to better customer experiences overall.
Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post


Meaning OLED will be a niche technology at best.Unless there is some breakthrough in printed wallpaper OLED.

One thing we can say with something approaching certainty: OLED as a portion of TV sales is not going to threaten LCD anytime soon at all. For all the sniping I got when I suggested more a year ago that OLED wasn't going to catch LCD in overall sales by decade's end, it now appears all-but impossible for it reach even 10% of TV unit sales within 5 years. That would be 25 million units in 2017, which seems absurd when we can be reasonably assured that 2014 is going to be ~1 million if suddenly everything aligns. Even if you believe that magically turns into 5 million in 2015, double that twice and you are not at 10% of the TV market in 2017.

There is still a lot of brave talk out of LG about price parity and the impending OLED tsunami. But until there's at least an earthquake, it's hard to take it very seriously.
post #5991 of 9429
Manufacturers forecast low OLED TV shipments this year, DigiTimes says

Source: FlyOnTheWall

Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) has set a goal of 200,000 OLED TV panels from its in-house production in 2012, while LG Electronics has lowered its target for OLED TV panels to be sourced from LG Display (LPL) to 50,000 units from the previous target of 100,000, according to DigiTimes, citing industry sources.
post #5992 of 9429
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich Peterson View Post

Manufacturers forecast low OLED TV shipments this year, DigiTimes says

Source: FlyOnTheWall

Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) has set a goal of 200,000 OLED TV panels from its in-house production in 2012, while LG Electronics has lowered its target for OLED TV panels to be sourced from LG Display (LPL) to 50,000 units from the previous target of 100,000, according to DigiTimes, citing industry sources.

I wonder how big they're going to make the O on their boxes since they really seem to me to be the first and worst offender at fooling people as to what "LED" means.
post #5993 of 9429
There's an crank-pot attitude here I'm not sure I understand.

Why do the attempts at bringing OLED to a product for the last 10 years have an emotionally charged bearing on the progress they've made in the last two? I don't care if they've been trying for 5, 10, or 15 years to get a product---it seems to me that it's exciting to be so close and the LG 2012 issues excepted, I don't see that learning curve to be any set of broken promises to be angry about.
post #5994 of 9429
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

There's an crank-pot attitude here I'm not sure I understand.

Why do the attempts at bringing OLED to a product for the last 10 years have an emotionally charged bearing on the progress they've made in the last two? I don't care if they've been trying for 5, 10, or 15 years to get a product---it seems to me that it's exciting to be so close and the LG 2012 issues excepted, I don't see that learning curve to be any set of broken promises to be angry about.

well it should not: perhaps we set our expectations too high

I have been an early adopter of plasma and LED LCD's and am also hoping to buy an OLED display but some of the luster of this new technology seems to be wearing off: I think start up and learning curve difficulties can provide an indication as to the possible overall success of a new product.

And as pointed out, with the present economy and the fact that existing displays on the market are considered commodities it does not portend well for OLED: but we can continue to hope...

my opinion only
post #5995 of 9429
Seasoned experts like rogo agree OLED TV will be a niche technology to which I am adding - "at best". Maybe chances of OLED are better in mobile where every micron shaved off the thickness counts. But even this is iffy as indicated by no clear advantage between the latest 2K displays in the S4 OLED and HTC1 LCD.
post #5996 of 9429
Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

Seasoned experts like rogo agree OLED TV will be a niche technology to which I am adding - "at best". Maybe chances of OLED are better in mobile where every micron shaved off the thickness counts. But even this is iffy as indicated by no clear advantage between the latest 2K displays in the S4 OLED and HTC1 LCD.

Sorry, I don't buy that OLED will be a niche. I think OLED will replace both Plasma and LCD. Sure, it will take several years but I have little doubt it will happen.
post #5997 of 9429
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich Peterson View Post

Sorry, I don't buy that OLED will be a niche. I think OLED will replace both Plasma and LCD. Sure, it will take several years but I have little doubt it will happen.

I'll give you 10 to 1 odds that it won't.

I'll bet the technology that finally replaces LCD hasn't even been invented yet.
post #5998 of 9429
But...

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/Televisions/OLED-TVs/pcmcat301000050010.c?id=pcmcat301000050010


OLED TVs — Coming This Year to Best Buy


Going green never looked so good

OLED (Organic Light-Emitting Diode) TV technology will soon be joining plasma, LED and LCD in the very competitive television marketplace. So why should you consider an OLED TV over the more established TV technologies?

With an OLED TV, you'll enjoy a high degree of color accuracy, great contrast, wide viewing angles and low power consumption. And unlike some existing television technologies that contain toxic lead and/or mercury, OLED is a completely green technology that will not add pollutants to landfills.


The Benefits of OLED:

•Color Accuracy — OLED displays have the ability to recreate every color in the visible spectrum
•Contrast — OLED displays create black areas by completely shutting off, and their inherent high brightness also produces pristine whites
•Fast Switching — OLED displays have extremely fast refresh rates for blur-free action sequences
•Wide Viewing Angels — The high brightness and self-illumination of OLED displays translate to an extremely wide viewing angle
•Low Power Consumption — Since they produce their own light and require no backlighting, OLED displays are extremely efficient
•Environmentally Friendly — As mentioned previously, OLEDs don't contain toxic chemicals, so they are truly a "green" technology
•Durability — OLED displays are more rugged and can operate in more extreme conditions, such as higher altitudes and colder temperatures, than other display technologies
•Dimensions — OLED displays can be made very thin and are therefore very lightweight



Check BestBuy.com for updates and product release dates as the year progresses, and sample OLED TVs at your local Best Buy store once they hit the marketplace.
post #5999 of 9429
Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

Seasoned experts like rogo agree OLED TV will be a niche technology to which I am adding - "at best". Maybe chances of OLED are better in mobile where every micron shaved off the thickness counts. But even this is iffy as indicated by no clear advantage between the latest 2K displays in the S4 OLED and HTC1 LCD.

I agree the HTC One looks pretty amazing as well. And, yes, I'm with you. OLED TVs will be a niche technology, at best, for at least the next several years. Anyone arguing otherwise at this point is kidding themselves. Where you and I agree is that "the next several years" means through the decade. That's where others deviate from us.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich Peterson View Post

Sorry, I don't buy that OLED will be a niche. I think OLED will replace both Plasma and LCD. Sure, it will take several years but I have little doubt it will happen.

Why does it replace plasma and OLED? Cost? No evidence of that. Quality? That's rarely a winning proposition and on mobile, at least, we're seeing LCD go toe-to-toe with OLED. BMW hasn't replaced Toyota and is no closer to doing so now than it was in the 1980s when it first went mainstream
Quote:
Originally Posted by kdog750 View Post

I'll give you 10 to 1 odds that it won't.

I'll bet the technology that finally replaces LCD hasn't even been invented yet.

That's very possible, which means we won't see it until 2025 -- or later.
Quote:
Originally Posted by binici View Post

But...


OLED TVs — Coming This Year to Best Buy

As the late, great Whitney Houston once said, "Crack is whack."
post #6000 of 9429
Rogo: Most people PRESUME that a successor to the ZT60 will be offered by Panasonic in 2014.

Here's the big question: if Panasonic cannot deliver on OLED until 2016 is there ANY CHANCE that Panasonic might offer one last great plasma in 2015?

LCD HATERS from all around the world are dying to know!

Should the last plasma bridge TV be bought in 2014 or 2015?

How much would 4K LCD have to suck for you to buy a plasma bridge TV?
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