Originally Posted by PCD
I'm in the same camp as you. If this is real, and not some Dell drone making an error, then it bodes well for all of us.
A Dell chat rep claimed the set was really shipping. Of course, when I pressed them, I was informed, "We have not sold one or shipped one."
I would also hope the price hits parity FAR FAR earlier than 2017 and I suspect it will based on history. Look at the Kuro, or Sharp 70" etc. They came out sky high as well, didn't take that long for the price to become more realistic.
Sorry, but history backs me, not what you think happened to the Kuro and Sharp 70".
The Kuro got cheaper because Pioneer exited the TV business. The Sharp 70" actually launched in the mid-$2000s at a number of big-box retailers. Yes, it's marginally cheaper now, especially in de-featured variants. But then, we've also seen the end of endaka
The history of TV price declines, for what it's worth, is that 30% compounded reductions are about thebest you will ever see.
Using that and starting with $13,000.....
(Using $10,000 as a baseline, you get $7000, $4900, $3430, $2400 incidentally. Of course, 4 years of compounded
30% reductions is a lot of "ifs" turning into reality.)
That, of course, is nowhere near price parity as in 2013, a flagship 55-inch LCD launches
at $2500 and falls lower later in the model year. It's hard to imagine a flagship LCD will be anymore than that in 2017, but it's easy to imagine it will be <$2000.
Fortunately, I was using cost, not price, so I wouldn't be surprised to see OLED reach price parity sometime around 2017. Of course, I wouldn't be floored by the opposite either. The cost reductions are driven by the learning curve and volumes. At this point, volumes are so infinitesimal -- and will remain so through all of next year -- we realistically won't see much in the way of cost reductions until 2015, despite the graph you see above.