Actually, this is the very pessimism we've been expressing (well, almost).
It continues to assume that we're "just about ready" for exponential growth. We, of course, haven't seen evidence of that yet.
But let's say it's true. By 2020, extrapolating from that forecast, OLED TVs would be about 30 million annually (you can see the declining growth rates in the forecast). That's less than 15% of the TV market.
This is a TV many of you told us was taking over, was inevitable, was cheaper, etc. When I said it had no chance of reaching 50% of the large-size display industry by 2020 (back in 2012) I was insulted and mocked. Yet now, an "optimistic" forecast has it reaching 15% of the TV business by that time? Well, wow. I'd hate to see a pessimistic forecast.
I'd like to point out that IHS has pushed back that forecast each year for the past 3, so it basically just keeps taking the numbers and saying, "They'll come true, just later!"
If we want to believe this is all real and good, here's the optimistic spin.
"The high end of the TV business is more like 40 million total units. OLED will be 25% of that by 2018, according to IHS. It will be more than half of the high end market by 2020, perhaps as much as 3/4. Within a decade, all high-end TVs will be OLED."
Now, there are a lot of reasons why that isn't likely. You will be able to buy a fairly high end 70-inch LCD for just over $2000 this year. But perhaps OLED will get relentlessly cheaper and by 2024, you'll be buying a $2000 70-inch OLED, giving that LCD no reason to exist. Of course, that's a decade away, where OLED has been... for a decade.
So are you saying those predicting that "this is a TV many of you told us was taking over, was inevitable, was cheaper, etc" are wrong? I don't recall anyone saying OLED was going to take over anytime soon. You are certainly right that it won't happen for many many years, but are you saying it won't happen at all?