What is it going to take to win the format war? - Page 10  

Are any replicators using HD DVD lines to produce commercial DVDs today? Are any switching back and forth between commercial DVD and HD DVD production on the same line?

--Darin

The better question is just how many replicators have done the $150k "upgrade" to old equipment vs. buying new "dual" HD/SD DVD lines ?? And also if any of those upgrade lines are being use for current HD-DVD production.

Somehow this notion of any old DVD production line can be refurbed to do HD-DVD has run wild. The fact is HD-DVD discs have to be made to closer tolerances than standard DVD discs and using old equipment is just asking for trouble. The big advantage is that a newer dual purpose line can do both and produce cycle times far less than what old equipment can do for DVD. That makes them more productive for the same floor space, operator costs and even electricity to run them. Any well versed bean counter will tell you that enhanced productivity with lower support costs is profit in the bank.

b2b

I would be surprised if any weren't. After all, there isn't enough content to dedicate a machine just for HD DVD. If the new lines are better at making DVD's than the old ones, why would they not use those?

I'm curious where all the DVD-18 type replication capacity is going to come from for hybrids moving forward.

Gary

I'm curious to why the studios though that hybrids were going to be anything other than something to fill the rental channel ?

b2b

Why, that's a pretty good point.

I think most people forgot that the Beta vs. VHS war turned when the rental stores went with VHS. I bought a Beta and about a year later got a VHS because that format had the most titles and was easiest to rent.

If the HD-DVD crowd was smart they would only do hybrids for new releases and then Blockbuster would have no choice but to stock HD-DVD on the flip side in every store... ;)

b2b

I have 2 problems with this suggestion:

1. The studios don't have a big stake in seeing HD DVD win. So they're not going to do the thing that's best for HD DVD, they're going to do the thing that's best for the studio. Unfortunetly, that isn't making every new release a hybrid.

2. I absolutely hate any Beta vs. VHS analogy, because I've seen so many of them now it makes my eyes bleed. I wish we could perma-ban those words for the next 2 years. :)

I think it is more then 150k (from what I heard) but as far as I know there are only the 6-8 lines done by memory-tech done as proof of concept. After that they helped Singulus develop the spaceline II HD and even they don't use that technique to upgrade any more but just replace the old DVD line by spaceline II HDs. The reasons are worst yields, longer cycle times and the converted lines can't be switched back and forth

1. The studios think that everyone is going to rush out and buy new players and old titles in HD so they can sell all of their stuff all over again and drink margaritas on the beach. :rolleyes: Sorry but that's all BS. What they can do is try to replace DVD because of the "piracy" issues with DVD (which for the most part is BS (except for Asia)).

2. Sorry for the Beta vs. VHS stuff, but as far as I remember that was exactly what happened. The rental outfits quit stocking Beta and it died, simple as that. No movies on Beta, no player sales, end of story.

b2b

skogan agree with both

B2B: I agree, same here. My dad bought a Beta at the time. I used my first couple of pay checks to buy a VHS because beta movies were hard to find and rent

Someone just brought up an interesting point that I hadn't even thought about. When the Beta VHS war was fought the media was prohibitively expensive and I would venture that most people strictly rented. This caused a problem for the market since it was much more expensive for rental outfits to buy both so one had to be choosen.

While there is clearly still a great deal of rental activity the price of the media is a fraction of what it used to be and many people now buy the media. I haven't seen anyone mention the rental angle before (probably has been mentioned but I just haven't seen it). There truly may be no clear winner in this current format war except perhaps in the rental market.

So to all those buying their choosen format disks thinking you will be helping one side or the other win the war, perhaps not? ;)

If anyone knows where to find the information (if it is even available) I would be curious to know of all DVD sales what percentage is purchased by the rental market?

I've got it:

Microsoft just buys Sony and war over :D

- Rich

LOL! The ways things have been going at Sony, it's not as far-fetched as it would of been to suggest this, say, five years ago.... :)

I'm not sure MS would want to run Sony. ;)

But I've previously speculated on something I'd consider a more likely scenario. Imagine Fox & Disney finally killing BD by switching to HD DVD. Then Rupert Murdoch helpfully offers to take Sony Pictures (and MGM shares) off Sony's hands, getting Sony out of the US movie business.

MSFT's part of this might be to invest a billion or so in Disney and partner for US downloads of their content.

- Tom

Ask Rupert to buy Sony out of the music biz too! ;)

because no one is buying the upgrade because even though it is 1/10 the cost to implement the converted lines can't switch back and forth, they have high cycle time and high reject rate. Well at least those were the reasons given by several replicators that bothered to say why thy went with new lines.

memory-tech was the only one that tried it out and develop the process and after they helped Singulus to create the skyline II HD (HD DVD/DVD) line , they used the new lines


memory-tech was the only one that tried it out and develop the process and after they helped Singulus to create the skyline II HD (HD DVD/DVD) line , they used the new lines

Yes they can Anthony. I have corrected you before on this so I don't understand why you keep saying this. HD DVD is very similar to DVD and people switch over stampers, etc. all the time with even DVD lines.

When did such matters become important to a BD supporter given BD's poor yields and manufacturing challenges? :)

Of course an old line is not as good as a state-of-the-art new HD DVD/BD line. But to the extent someone is making a living stamping DVDs using those old lines, they will be just as happy doing the same with HD DVD. And this is key. Big guys will invest in new lines. It is the larger number of smaller companies who can't afford a $1.5-$2M BD line who are well served by this capability for HD DVD.

I think you are confusing the information here. For a fast growing replicator, buying new HD DVD/DVD lines makes sense and these would have better performance. But this does not eliminate the ability to convert over older lines and their switch over capability.

Fact remains that whether we are talking old or new lines, HD DVD provides far more flexibility for a replicator than BD. Everything about this discussion is a positive for HD DVD and a negative for BD. So I hope we are done going around the circle here...

the same reason you corrected me on the way audio works on disk and I did not stop, I am 99% sure you are wrong. Why don't you ask your buds at Memory-tech if the old DVD converted lines can replicate both or if it is the new lines they bought from Singulus to upgrade their old lines that are doing it.

not important to me. But if someone is asking what happened to the 150k upgrade and that is the reason the replictors are not buying then it is important to them


agree, but they are not. Even memory-tech replaced some old lines. If it was just addition that is one thing, but it is not.

I would not say far more, but I agree it has more flexibility in that respect. But the question was not what can the replicators do with their almost as expensive as BD line but what happened to the cheapy upgrade.

Well, I am pleased that you at least acknowledge my correction to your stance this go around. As to your credibility vs mine when it comes to HD DVD replication capabilities, I let AVS forum members decide that :).

Just curious, where did you get this information that leads you to believe Amir is 99% wrong? Hearsay or credible information?

credible information over time. I have been reading the news thread sinse 2004. the problem is finding old data. Google is designed for new data and so looking for something that is over a year old is not easy, not to mention that sometimes old PR are just taken down. And the search function here is useless for generic terms like HD DVD and converted or upgrade.