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Yikes! What does this mean for BR? - Page 3  

post #61 of 236
Quote:
Originally Posted by WriteSimple
Well a lack of adequate supply of blue lasers mean one thing. HD-DVD and BD manufacturers are feeling the brunt. However, this also means that bigger investments for blue-laser plants are being fast-tracked.


fuad
from my understanding HD DVD isn't feeling any hurt from the blue lasers, because (and I read this on AVS Forum last week) that MS has a BOATLOAD of them and are not willing to share them with Sony, Pioneer or the BD technology.

I will try to hunt it down by searching for Blue Lasers.
post #62 of 236
Quote:
Originally Posted by RADMan2000
I don't agree that the transition costs are zero. One of the advantages of standard DVDs is their ability to be used in a variety of devices: portable DVD players, laptop PCs, desktop PCs, automobile DVD players, older or cheap DVD players that may be attached to the 2nd or 3rd TV in the house, and players at friends' homes. Because BD media will not play in these other devices, you can't truly make the "transition" to BD unless you are willing to forego the transportability factor (a "cost" in convenience) or upgrade these other devices to BD (high cost or no current availability). So, yes, it is possible that even with all these PS3s that are BD-capable, most people will continue to buy standard DVDs, at least in the short term.
Now this I HIGHLY agree with.

I spend a truly good (Not outraegous) amount on electronics, both PC and entertainment wise. This currently has me with 2 DVD players, 2 PCs with DVD ROM or DVD-RW, an MCE HTPC with DVD ROM and an in-car DVD player.

There is just NO WAY IN HELL that I am going to replace all of that on the short. And especially for the prices that are being demanded at this time.

And what the HELL do you need HDTV in your car for?!?!?! Waht, does your windshield double as a plasma display or something?!?!

As for the PS3 and BD adoption, no way. I know a pile of people that bought a PS2 and jabbered about using it for DVD playback. NONE of them actually did it. Things like the ever classic "Wife Acceptance Factor" step in and demand only the easiest of use. Even fewer people I know used the XBox 1 to play DVD content. Consoles that play DVD/BD/HD-DVD are just an anomolous curiosity.

Another thing that most are missing is that the PS3 will be so freaking $$$ that it will still put the HD-DVD players in a better, more economically viable light. And with the XBox360 prices coming down and the new WiiWii, most will notice that they can still get a new/equivalent console and an HD-DVD player for LESS than ANY BD player setup.

And lastly, as someone noted, the world is not populated by crazy HDTV nuts that have limitless buckets of cash. Most people still have yet to get a new TV with real HDTV resolution. I only recently got an actual HDTV. My not "real" HDTV is my 480p pj set up in my HT. Price will dominate this format war and Sony is NOT known for being price savvy.
post #63 of 236
Quote:
Originally Posted by que3jxp
Now this I HIGHLY agree with.

I spend a truly good (Not outraegous) amount on electronics, both PC and entertainment wise. This currently has me with 2 DVD players, 2 PCs with DVD ROM or DVD-RW, an MCE HTPC with DVD ROM and an in-car DVD player.

There is just NO WAY IN HELL that I am going to replace all of that on the short. And especially for the prices that are being demanded at this time.

And what the HELL do you need HDTV in your car for?!?!?! Waht, does your windshield double as a plasma display or something?!?!

As for the PS3 and BD adoption, no way. I know a pile of people that bought a PS2 and jabbered about using it for DVD playback. NONE of them actually did it. Things like the ever classic "Wife Acceptance Factor" step in and demand only the easiest of use. Even fewer people I know used the XBox 1 to play DVD content. Consoles that play DVD/BD/HD-DVD are just an anomolous curiosity.

Another thing that most are missing is that the PS3 will be so freaking $$$ that it will still put the HD-DVD players in a better, more economically viable light. And with the XBox360 prices coming down and the new WiiWii, most will notice that they can still get a new/equivalent console and an HD-DVD player for LESS than ANY BD player setup.

And lastly, as someone noted, the world is not populated by crazy HDTV nuts that have limitless buckets of cash. Most people still have yet to get a new TV with real HDTV resolution. I only recently got an actual HDTV. My not "real" HDTV is my 480p pj set up in my HT. Price will dominate this format war and Sony is NOT known for being price savvy.
480p isn't real HDTV, that is Enhanced Definition, same resolution as standard definition just progressive ;)

Also, Toshiba's MSRP is the same as the entry level PS3 which plays blu-ray movies.
post #64 of 236
Quote:
Originally Posted by brywalker
Oh, wait. How many of those will actually be used for HD movie playback?
Given the line-up of launch games, I imagine a number of early adopters are going to want BD movies so their PS3 has something to do while they wait for the release of MGS4.
post #65 of 236
Quote:
Originally Posted by briankmonkey
480p isn't real HDTV, that is Enhanced Definition, same resolution as standard definition just progressive ;)

Also, Toshiba's MSRP is the same as the entry level PS3 which plays blu-ray movies.
I think the reason he put quotes on "real" was to denote that he knows it's not really HDTV.

Also you can pick up a Toshiba for less than $360, a 360 Core, and a Wii for less than the Samsung BD player...we could do this all day.

Also how long do you think it will be before any of us can buy a PS3 entry level or otherwise for under $1200...spring 07?
post #66 of 236
Quote:
Originally Posted by doublebogey7
I don't know if I believe that. 100K units in Japan would cause mass riots. Hell, I could barely call it a launch. It just seems too low. I'll wait for official notice (which has yet to appear) in regards to shipment numbers.
post #67 of 236
Quote:
Originally Posted by joshd2012
I don't know if I believe that. 100K units in Japan would cause mass riots. Hell, I could barely call it a launch. It just seems too low. I'll wait for official notice (which has yet to appear) in regards to shipment numbers.
Read the article - the numbers come from Ken Kutaragi himself.
post #68 of 236
Quote:
Originally Posted by doublebogey7
Read the article - the numbers come from Ken Kutaragi himself.
And you can bet that (if anything) he's OVERinflating the numbers. He certainly isn't underestimating the launch, just weeks prior to the holiday season. This sucks for PS3/BD.
post #69 of 236
Quote:
Originally Posted by doublebogey7
Read the article - the numbers come from Ken Kutaragi himself.
I did, and it says nothing about him saying it.
post #70 of 236
Sony now keeping all the BR diodes to themselves will surely not impress their BR partners.
post #71 of 236
Quote:
Originally Posted by joshd2012
I did, and it says nothing about him saying it.
Believe what you will then - I won't try to convince you otherwise. However, I've always considered the International Herald Tribune and the Associated Press as credible sources. For me these numbers are "reliable estimates."
post #72 of 236
Quote:
Originally Posted by joshd2012
I did, and it says nothing about him saying it.
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...=3754&Itemid=2

Speaking to AP, he [Ken Kutaragi] said that two million units would be shipped to the US and Japan by the end of this year, thereby slashing the original figure by half. Just 500,000 machines will arrive at launch with Japan reportedly earmarked to receive 100,000.


This is an AP story, not something off a random blog. The figures are coming straight from Sony.
post #73 of 236
Quote:
Originally Posted by DPowers
I think the reason he put quotes on "real" was to denote that he knows it's not really HDTV.

Also you can pick up a Toshiba for less than $360, a 360 Core, and a Wii for less than the Samsung BD player...we could do this all day.

Also how long do you think it will be before any of us can buy a PS3 entry level or otherwise for under $1200...spring 07?
Yes, we could ;) You might have noticed I said MSRP ;) You can pick up a lot of things for less than a Samsung player. I sure as heck will not pick up a Samsung, why would I when something much more functional is coming out at half the price in November :D

November 17th for some of us that want one at launch is my prediction. It happened with the xbox360 at launch for some us which launched with even less ;)
post #74 of 236
I think that Sony may have blown their best chance for a quick victory over HD-DVD. If they were able to bring a quality product at a reasonable price that's available, well they would be in high cotton.

With its high price, limited availability, and movie quality issues, the only people that will buy this machine are the hard core gamers, who are willing to stand in line(or pay someone else to) to purchase these machines. Very few use their consoles for movies, if they do, they rent or burn an illegal download.

How does that compare to many of us on this forum who own hundreds of DVD's and purchase on a regular basis. I did an informal poll of 12 gamers, (they own 3+ consoles) , the most DVD's anyone owned was 18! and that's since the PS2 came out!!

Based on their average movie rental and ownership, I alone have made more money for the movie studios than these guys combined by a long shot. Which format sells the most movies will be the deciding factor!!!!!
post #75 of 236
Maybe Sony should buy back all the Samsung open boxes from BB and use the diodes to help their PS3 launch numbers.. :P

Honestly this annoucment means little in the big picture -- mostly gamers will be in line and camping out for 48 hours to get their hands on them, not people who want to watch 50 first dates.

It's not a nail in the coffin of HDDVD, but there will be more BR players on the market period, how this effects the sales of BR movies titles has yet to be seen.
post #76 of 236
Quote:
Originally Posted by DPowers
I think the reason he put quotes on "real" was to denote that he knows it's not really HDTV.
THANK YOU!!!!

You took the words right out of my mouth.
post #77 of 236
Don't forget that anyone who buys the HDMI PS3 will have to shell out for the HDMI cable. It's not included with the unit. Unbelieveable.
I am also not convinced that this is any kind of coffin nail for HD DVD.

Plus there were no stats on how many of each model were shipping.
It would seem reasonable that the non-HDMI units would be the majority.

With $40-$60 games, plus the HDMI cable, I don't see huge numbers of buyers springing for movies or taking the time to watch a movie instead of gaming at least for the first month of ownership.

In any event it will be interesting to see what the actual numbers turn out to be.
post #78 of 236
Some thoughts:

How many of the people paying $$$$ for early PS3s will not be hardcore adult gamers but rather parents buying for Christmas? Presumably most of these units will not translate to blu-ray disk sales anytime soon.

Everybody seems to be assuming that there will not be any quality issues with early PS3 units. It seems like I have heard of reliability complaints on almost all game consoles concerning the first month or two of production. I will be happy to let the folks who are willing to pay 2x retail be the beta testers on this one.

Has anyone actually seen a demo of Blu-ray playback on the PS3? We know quality of existing MPEG2 disks will be lackluster, but it is too early to discuss PQ of this player relative to others. Just because Sony treated DVD playback as an afterthought on the PS2 does not mean the same will happen with PS3, or that any initial bugs will not be addressed through software/firmware like they were with the HD-A1s.

Weren't the games supposed to run more like $70 for the hot titles? Personally, my pain threshold is about $30-35 for almost any video game.
post #79 of 236
Let's be honest folks. After camping out overnight to pick up one of these machines, NO hardcore gamer is going to invite his friends over for a movie. Come on, lets be realistic here!

The shortage in blue diodes will also result in less Blu-ray players on the shelves, and at $1000-1500, NOBODY is going to pick one up when the Samsung can be bought for 2/3 the price. Remember, it's not the player, it's the software!

Hw many blue diodes Toshiba has is somewhat unknown. Supposedly they have a supply, but they too could run into shortages.

Bottom line, HD-DVD titles will continue to outsell Blu-ray through 4th quarter 2006 and into 1st quarter 2007:
http://www.thedvdwars.com/index.cfm
post #80 of 236
Quote:
Originally Posted by zmeister
...Very few use their consoles for movies, if they do, they rent or burn an illegal download.

How does that compare to many of us on this forum who own hundreds of DVD's and purchase on a regular basis. I did an informal poll of 12 gamers, (they own 3+ consoles) , the most DVD's anyone owned was 18! and that's since the PS2 came out!!...
Thanks for the insight based on a small but real sample of gamers. If you're going to shell out $500+ for a game console (probably $700-$800 if you include games and accessories), you're probably going to play games, not watch movies. There are only so many hours in the day. Watching a movie takes 2+ hours away from time that you could be playing games! Some people are still fine with going to the movie theater once a month and never buying a DVD.
post #81 of 236
Does anyone feel Sony is getting what it deserves right now with these continuous PS3 production problems??

Let me get it straight:

Sony comes up with Blu-ray --an advanced format for optical storage based on different technology than DVD with partnerships for other companies.

This format shows excellent potential, however in comparison to HD-DVD only offers about 15-20% more (in terms of space, max MUX, etc.), but at much larger premiums due to the wide differences in BR vs traditional DVD. (I am assuming TL-45 HD-DVDs do get inducted into the HD-DVD spec which I believe it will mid 2007 as a counter to BD-50). Unfortunately as BR is such a new tech in addition to high costs to market there are other additional problems-- BD-50, and disc yields.

In order to combat HD-DVD which was ready at a much earlier time BR is launched in the US with the Samsung model--obviously rushed to market. Now it's PAINFULLY obvious that it wasn't just the Samsung rushed to market but BR in it's entirety.

Additionally, this whole time (2003-2005 or so) Sony decided to bank its baby--BR on PS3...a great strategic move, however underhanded it may be. This is apparent as it has increased the cost of the PS3 and accompanying games while forcing many delays and drastic cutbacks in (at least initial) availability. You know what? Good! Let Sony continue to delay, delay, delay, while promising the world (and delivering something quite short of that) at a price that is NOT comparable to HD-DVD, either TODAY or any time in the expected future. I'm sorry, but BR is such a small increase over what HD-DVD can bring to the table that it's not worth the price premium. This is especially true considering what BOTH of these formats offer over DVD.

The divide between HD-DVD and BR sales continues to deepen (looking at Amazon.com sales statistics which ARE representative of USA sales) -- just look at the sales ratings difference between the Mission Impossible sets. Every day HD-DVD becomes stronger and gains in its lead over BR. Think of it like one gigantic 300-lap NASCAR race. HD-DVD jumped out of the gate before BR and EVERY DAY SINCE THAT TIME has been driving faster and faster than BR. The longer BR delays, stalls, etc, the harder it will be for them to JUST CATCH UP.
post #82 of 236
anyone else think this might be a feint?
a little low estimate to lull critics and adversaries into a false sense of security?
Lower the pressure, lower the heat and then when they come out and the numbers are better than expected, and the yields on the ROMs are better than expected, and the quality of the software is better than expected, they look like the smartest guys in the room and the entire format and gameplan is seen in a new succsessful light.



Over hyping and over estimating brought down some harsh criticism and bad press. Maybe this is part of a new, scripted strategy?
post #83 of 236
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paulidan
anyone else think this might be a feint?
a little low estimate to lull critics and adversaries into a false sense of security?
Lower the pressure, lower the heat and then when they come out and the numbers are better than expected, and the yields on the ROMs are better than expected, and the quality of the software is better than expected, they look like the smartest guys in the room and the entire format and gameplan is seen in a new succsessful light.
Over hyping and over estimating brought down some harsh criticism and bad press. Maybe this is part of a new, scripted strategy?
I think there was way too much anecdotal evidence of problems before this announcement was made. Also, the diode supply problems, which I assume have the potential to impact shipments of all BD players, might get a studio or hardware partner to rethink their exclusive BD commitment. A risky strategy. It would have been safer to say the problem was with supply of a PS3-only component, if this were an orchestrated misinformation campaign.
post #84 of 236
Quote:
Originally Posted by calvin940
How many HD-DVD players will be selling at launch time of the PS3? North America will be going from 0 to 400,000 BD players in probably a couple of days if that.

At the pricepoint of the PS3 (and was seen in the 360 launch as well), more of the consumers were adults buying it for their kids (and in some case themselves). My point being that the parent/consumer attitude will likely be if I am going to buy any HD movies, it will be for the unit I have already in my house vs buying a player of a different format. You have 400,000 households that will have a device to support a a new HD movie format overnight. You have a hell of a starting base of users. Regardless of your thoughts on "how many are movie watchers", they have the units, in their homes. THey are ready to buy the movie format (and will not be buying a competing format player). That is pretty powerful.

Calvin
http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story...&IssueID=29167

350K from Toshiba by the end of 2006, that does not include MS HD DVD addons.
Certainly no "nail in the coffin" for HD DVD.
Could be that start of a long slow decline for BD though, I wonder how much Sony was banking on those PS3 numbers to keep their studios (Especially disney) in line?
post #85 of 236
Pricedrop on Tosh at midnite tonite, should get interesting.

:)
post #86 of 236
Dave, are you just quoting the other thread, or do you have some knowledge?
post #87 of 236
The PS3 was touted as Sony's Trojan horse. Sorry Sony, not this year.

Blu-ray stumbled out of the gates and is falling farther behind every day.

Blu-ray's only hope is a drastic price cut on stand alone players. And I mean drastic... $200 player.

I can't see how HD-DVD can lose this war. Toshiba can easily move into Europe.
We also know Europeans are more educated and frugle when it comes to spending. I see HD-DVD taking a lead over there.
Also Sony is giving Japan the snub too. Only 20% of the PS3's where they supposedly hold maret dominance. Seems like Sony is dismissing Europe and Japan and will only fight the fight here in North America. It's too bad because I don't see them winning here either.
post #88 of 236
Anyone else consider the timing of the announcement? Right after the Leipzig game show and IFA in Berlin. I guess they wanted enough time to get out of town before giving Europe the middle finger.
post #89 of 236
Quote:
Originally Posted by joshd2012
I did, and it says nothing about him saying it.
It was sometimes in March/April of this year that he gave figures in the millions. A bit of a search will do it.
post #90 of 236
I'm a gamer who also buys dvd's. I own all the recent consoles including the 360 and I'm clocking in at about 400+ DVD's. I personally will not be buying the PS3 to play games or DVD's.

Why?

Cost is a factor, but I also don't want my HD player to be a first generation game console. History tells me that the DVD drives on consoles of the past were average at best compared to standalone dvd players. Not only that, but Sony has already hinted that they may be pricing games above the 60 dollar mark. Blu-ray or no, it's a shame to pass the cost of their format war onto the gamer.

More importantly, I don't trust either of the new consoles enough to be my "entertainment hub". I've already had my 360 replaced once and it was not a fun experience. Let's just say I'm skeptical that the PS3 will work flawlessly in that first generation. I'd rather keep all my components separate.

As far as the format war goes, I don't really care who wins. I'm leaning towards HD-DVD for now but I only hope that the victor puts quality above all else.
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