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HD-DVD/BD prediction  

post #1 of 184
Thread Starter 
When the Toshiba HD-DVD player hit the streets I purchased one and was very impressed. Shortly after, I saw a demo of the Sony blu ray player and was not impressed. However, when the Samsung went on sale, I looked very closely at it and purchased one on the mere thought that I could then get myself any title and not have to worry about which format it was recorded on.

That said, many weeks of reading discussions and arguments here on which format would eventually win ensued. Having both players I have contended that neither looks any better than the other on my Sony rear projection LCD and that most of the argument in favor of HD-DVD looking better came from either those who did not own a Samsung, or those who just did not do a fair comparison, to those who just had an agenda in favor of the Toshiba.

At this point, on October 22, I would like to go out on a limb and make the prediction that within about 2 or 3 years, HD-DVD will be merely a trivia question. Fact is, blu ray has far more support in the hardware world, it is starting to come into its own with many players about to hit the stores, with 50GB disks finally making the grade, with blu ray disk recorders already appearing in both desktop and notebook computers, with Samsung firmware upgrades coming along making a difference in the performance of the player, with the ability now to be able to record HD camcorder footage onto a blu ray recorder in a Sony computer and then play that disk back in the Samsung player, and finally with the Samsung player price now appearing at well under the $900 mark. The final nail in the coffin for HD-DVD just might be when and if some adult titles start appearing on blu ray! That and the fact that in a few months, you will be able to walk into a video store and look at maybe 8 HD players, and at least 6 of them will be blu ray players!

Sorry to all you HD-DVD backers and supporters, but it is becoming clear to me that that format has basically little or no future. This time Toshiba is producing the Betamax, not Sony!
post #2 of 184
both will win, and there will dawn a new age where. dvds/bds will be just different mediums for the same things.


hence there is different consoles. but the same games for each.


life is about choice.


the less standards we have in life, the better we can deal. - ex droid # 726364
post #3 of 184
I say its still up in the air. New hd-dvd media on average is expensive for the average buyer at around $28 for some. This will slow new buyers in and even some who buy the players may buy just blockbuster movies. This time may give some movie studios that are exclusive to make for both. Hopefully we don't have any studios that see this as a losing venture and stop making HD completely. HD-DVD for now has low cost players on their side to keep the battle going. With High Def being a niche market, it may be years before a winner emerges. One possibility is combo player in a year or two. Then studios would make only one format to keep costs down. Sony of course will make blu-ray disc as well as Fox and maybe Disney for the extra encryption, and Universal and maybe Warner making HD-DVD discs.

But time will tell, I won't buy players over $400 (or $600 if it can play games). Also I wouldn't buy a player that doesn't have hdmi. You know eventually the studios will turn it on.
post #4 of 184
Quote:
Originally Posted by californiajay
At this point, on October 22, I would like to go out on a limb and make the prediction that within about 2 or 3 years, HD-DVD will be merely a trivia question.

[snip]
Sorry to all you HD-DVD backers and supporters, but it is becoming clear to me that that format has basically little or no future. This time Toshiba is producing the Betamax, not Sony!

I disagree, but I'm not going to sweat it. I will probably pick up both players eventually (I have the HD A1 now). However, nothing in the BD camp in terms of hardware (too pricey) or software (too inconsistent in quality and no truly compelling titles, yet). is pushing me to make this purcahse now. The Panny might be a half decent machine, but it is still too expensive.

And so I wait, patiently, but enjoying my HD DVD for the time being.
post #5 of 184
The war has just begun....here is a prediction....this war will be lost or won on a point or factor we have YET to consider....since hd-dvd is under 500 bucks...BUY BOTH.
post #6 of 184
The consumer price of the disks is irrelevant, thanks to Netflix (and their competitors.)

Personally, I've decided to get a player for both formats, but buy very few titles until the a winner emerges, or until players typically play both formats. Until then, I'll mostly just rent.
post #7 of 184
Up in the air for now. We will know better in January after all of the activity this Christmas season.
post #8 of 184
Hopefully universal players will be the biggest winner.
post #9 of 184
I think HD-DVD will be well into its downward spiral this time next year. Universal players or not!
post #10 of 184
This thread reminds me of college cheer-leaders trying to motivate the crowd when their team is down.
Or is this thinking aloud your dreams....
post #11 of 184
Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman
This thread reminds me of college cheer-leaders trying to motivate the crowd when their team is getting creamed
But what it its a squad of indestructible cheerleaders like the one in Heroes? Because that indestructible cheerleaders, like Sony with BR, continues to do dumb things (like sticking hand in garbage disposal = mastering 'TFE' from crummy master on MPEG2) and yet she continues to put herself together (she because of genetics, Sony because of money that is rapidly dwindling).
post #12 of 184
The ps3 WILL have an effect, like it or not. I'm jumping into bd via ps3 and I think the other purchasers are excited about the bd disk capability for movies as well as gaming, network capability for download,upgrades, browse,linux and on line gaming. I see it as what Sony is saying it is, a media centerpiece...not just a movie player...for a very reasonable cost. I guess time will tell but I believe the war starts Nov 17. This is a format war I had hoped would never happen but since it's been forced on us I'll try to pick the unit that gives me the most value and versatility. I have NO ties to Sony and own many brands of AV, dont even own a ps2, so no fan boy here. I really hope no loser happens in this war but the winner in my house is bd.
post #13 of 184
Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman
This thread reminds me of college cheer-leaders trying to motivate the crowd when their team is getting creamed :)
Yea, I'll look forward to your speech next month. I hope it's a dandy.
post #14 of 184
Quote:
Originally Posted by eightninesuited
Yea, I'll look forward to your speech next month. I hope it's a dandy.

For me the format war is over for the time being. I bought an HD-DVD player and have no reason to spend any more money on Blu-ray. If a movie comes out I have to have, I simply buy an SD-DVD and use it in the HD-DVD player from Toshiba.

I'm going to get many years out of this $500 purchase on HD-DVD's I already own or SD-DVD's. I won't be buying BR disks until there I am left with no choice.

K
post #15 of 184
Quote:
Originally Posted by kevivoe
...If a movie comes out I have to have, I simply buy an SD-DVD and use it in the HD-DVD player from Toshiba...

Watching SD is not a viable option after being spoiled by HD. If you are happy with SD then way buy a HD player in the first place.
post #16 of 184
Actually, actions and results speak louder than words. Speech will not be necessary. Great if BD can pull it off, but it's not a given, especially given their current hole....

I believe Kevin was implying that of the two format options he picked HD DVD. Picking one has trade-offs.
post #17 of 184
Quote:
Originally Posted by californiajay
That said, many weeks of reading discussions and arguments here on which format would eventually win ensued. Having both players I have contended that neither looks any better than the other on my Sony rear projection LCD and that most of the argument in favor of HD-DVD looking better came from either those who did not own a Samsung, or those who just did not do a fair comparison, to those who just had an agenda in favor of the Toshiba.
All things being equal, as you yourself say, people will gravitate towards the cheaper option. Thus HD-DVD is the one that will win, because it will always be cheaper for the same or better PQ.
post #18 of 184
I decided to sell most of my hd dvd movies because the players are all POS IMO.

So for me....BD has already won. ;)
post #19 of 184
Quote:
Originally Posted by William
Watching SD is not a viable option after being spoiled by HD. If you are happy with SD then way buy a HD player in the first place.

SD-DVD on Tosh. HD player is still better than SD-DVD on my old Denon. In fact I have read that many Blu ray movies to date are equivalent to SD-DVD's upconverted on a the Tosh. HD-DVD player so I am not missing a thing. I just get the added benefit of HD-DVD movies when I buy them. So far I have 15.

15 at an average of $25 puts me at $375 + $500 for the player and I am still under the original Blu ray player. I also have a few on pre-order. As long as I get the acceptable performance on the SD-DVD upconverts I will maintain the status quo. HD-DVD or SD-DVD. I can imagine that there are some people that are Blu ray and SD-DVD only owners also.

K
post #20 of 184
The format with the higher data storage and transfer rates and studio support and CE support will win.
post #21 of 184
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty22001
The format with the higher data storage and transfer rates and studio support and CE support will win.
oh sur just like Clic..please just have a guess how much people has already own it?

Sorry to your prediction but in Europe, all Toshi E2-XE2 preorders have been sold out for a while...Pany BR is there but vey few people has bought it..it cost 1500€..not 1500$ as you thought...80% of studios supporting BR you said? to sell their BR disc to who? to few owner of Samsung and Pany? :cool:
post #22 of 184
Right now there is no war. When BR can put out a real player at 399.00 or less that looks great, then there will be a war. Until then, it's geeks like us that are the only ones willing to blow a wad of cash for either format. They are both still to expensive for the average film buff.
post #23 of 184
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onkyo10
oh sur just like Clic..please just have a guess how much people has already own it?

Sorry to your prediction but in Europe, all Toshi E2-XE2 preorders have been sold out for a while...Pany BR is there but vey few people has bought it..it cost 1500€..not 1500$ as you thought...80% of studios supporting BR you said? to sell their BR disc to who? to few owner of Samsung and Pany? :cool:
In 3 weeks, many more times will own a BD player than hddvd.

I personally don't have either, but I'll get a PS3 when I can for regular price in the next few months.

And yes, capicity and support do make or break a format. You listed one esoteric one, without thinking of VHS (capicity) or many format VHS vs few on Beta.

hddvd's a goner, I give it one more year, and Toshiba will go. They are all it has.

Blu-ray holds more and has far more support and promise. There's no arguing that.
post #24 of 184
Quote:
Originally Posted by trgraphics
Right now there is no war. When BR can put out a real player at 399.00 or less that looks great, then there will be a war. Until then, it's geeks like us that are the only ones willing to blow a wad of cash for either format. They are both still to expensive for the average film buff.
400k will have BD players with a free movie in a month. You're just wrong.
post #25 of 184
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty22001
The format with the higher data storage and transfer rates and studio support and CE support will win.

If you really believe that data storage and transfer rate matters to the average consumer, your spending way to much time reading this forum,:)

It means nothing to them. They just want to watch a movie when it released. Even the extras are just a sales tool. The majoriy of people never watch them. Ask ten of your friends about what you say and it will become very clear. I did, and all they said was "Huh, what the hell are you talking about".
post #26 of 184
Yeah, the average consumer will see 6 or 7 makers with hd BD players, and 1 incompatible Toshiba. Not to mention the millions of PS3 players that'll be out there shortly.

They'll see more movie studios and stuff they want on BD.

For me, I want the one that'll have more capacity and so on tech specs. It just so happens, BD is the one that also has all the support from the industry.
post #27 of 184
No one has any idea what the PS3 game machine will look like for movies and you can claim that I'm wrong???

Sony can't even get a standalone player to work and yet you think the PS3 will defeat all comers when it comes to movie playback??

WOW!!
post #28 of 184
Why are you trolling against BD on the BD forum trgraphics?

Also, I never SAID that the PS3 will be the best player. It certainly has the specs to be a very good player though. Also, Sony isn't the BD itself, there's many many other companies involved in BD, unlike poor Toshiba that's nearly all alone.
post #29 of 184
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty22001
In 3 weeks, many more times will own a BD player than hddvd.

I personally don't have either, but I'll get a PS3 when I can for regular price in the next few months.

And yes, capicity and support do make or break a format. You listed one esoteric one, without thinking of VHS (capicity) or many format VHS vs few on Beta.

hddvd's a goner, I give it one more year, and Toshiba will go. They are all it has.

Blu-ray holds more and has far more support and promise. There's no arguing that.
You counts on PS3 to win this war? how could a addon player provide better PQ and SQ to Home theater fan than a Pany or Pioneer Elite...actually, people still are thinking that only coming out Pioneer Elite could be powerful enough to match or do better thanToshi HD DVD player ...how could an add on player sold at 500$ do that?
What do you know about one more year? In one more year , number oh Toshi player are tripled and multiplied by thousand...How 80 % studios would be able to wait until the BR to get into the market and to keep their promise not to go to HD camp?WB and Universal did that and are making huge profit..why not to do that themselves? for what?, Integrity?
post #30 of 184
Quote:
Originally Posted by trgraphics
No one has any idea what the PS3 game machine will look like for movies and you can claim that I'm wrong???

Sony can't even get a standalone player to work and yet you think the PS3 will defeat all comers when it comes to movie playback??

WOW!!
Unlike the first Toshibas and the RCA copy....BD players seem to actually work without freezing/lip sync ect.

The average consumer would take these hd dvd players back if they cost 99.00.....and of that there is no doubt.

Good thing for hd dvd that average consumers are not even aware of it as of yet.
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