HD-DVD/BD prediction - Page 3  

Toshiba has been waging the nascent format war quite well IMO, but it sure looks like the deck remains stacked against them. The fact that no players other than Toshiba (and the rebadges) are out there does draw an eyebrow whenever I consider buying an HD-XA1 (which is more often than I'm comfortable with since I most impressed at viewing it in person at a Magnolia). The fact that the BD players keep getting delayed doesn't help them either and what should be a vastly superior library advantage has yet to appear. From my laymens pov, it sure looks like the BD launch was far premature.

If anything, this format war reminds me of the US Civil War. HD-DVD would be the Confederacy. Very effective out of the gate and inflicting rapid small victories, but they just looked doomed to failure once the mass of the BDA brings to bear so many more CE labels and exclusive studio support. At the very best, they look to be hoping for the fate of DVD+R/RW, which is how I was initially thinking this format war would resolve itself.

Anything could happen, of course, and without Microsoft, the war would have probably ended before it began. Toshiba needs to get at least another CE in the game before I could be really confident in them and the BDA needs to get their 1G players released, if not starting on a more affordable 2nd gen. The PS3 should fill some of that role, though, just as the 360 add-on some for the other side.

I would still hope for a DVD+/- R resolution, though. The two formats are so close with all the same codecs, etc, though some of the technical differences seem... expensive... going from HD-DVD to BD, they seem less onerous from BD to HD-DVD.

UxniSXRD has a great analogy about fast out of the gate, weak on fundamentals. Toshiba itself is a losing factor. The only thing is, will HD media itself be a viable media. I sure hope so, and the future belongs to the PS3/blu-ray camp.

A major difference between this format war and a civil war analogy is that the Confederacy had virtually no hope of Northern States switching sides or becoming neutral in the war. Additionally, the Confederacy did not have the active support of any European power, whereas MS' active support of HD DVD would be like England or France actively supporting the South against the North.

IMO, if one or more major CEs/studios announce support for HD DVD, its chance of thriving significantly increases.

Better analogy is Napoleon's campaign in Russia. Napoleon thought he was engaging an adversary with victory assured. After all, his army was better trained, funded and commanded. However, by the end of the Russian winter he was in tatters - poor planning perhaps was to blame, or under-estimating the enemy. But his army was weakened and Napoleon never achieved his former glory, shortly after he ended his days on some out-post somewhere....yup. If you think the format battle started in Spring, now it's fall and the decisive battle will be in Winter.....

I guess we are seeing history repeat itself, Napoleonic wars at the level of disk formats.....Winter will be Russia, sometime next year will be Waterloo :D

Would that make Amir the Duke of Wellington? LOL.

Yeah, hddvd is Napoleon for sure. With fanbois and all today. Destined to lose.

If war analogies are to be used, Sony's attempt to use BD to win two markets (HT and console gaming) can be seen as akin to Germany in WWII - instead of being content to neutralize a smaller opponent in Britain(Toshiba) and control Western Europe (HT market), opening up a second front against Russia (MS)...

Um, Napoleon got sent to a prison island -- Elba after his defeat at Leipzig (following the disasterous campaign were Napoleon got further than Hitler but was foiled by the Russians that burned Moscow to the ground so Napoleon would freeze and wouldn't have rations or shelter). Remember, Hitler never even made it to Moscow, never took over Stalingrad even. After his exile to Elba he escaped and reformed his meagre army and was once again defeated by a huge alliance involving the British (that had refrained from continental politics and war up until that fateful year of 1814).

Napoleon spent the remaining 6 years (Died prematurely) in captivity under British supervision.

Not a fun story. (Do I smell a whiff of grapeshot?)

No, if war analogy is to be used... hddvd is the communist iron curtain of 1 supplier and the free world as BD with multiple ones.

You really don't think that is going to remain the same do you? CES is coming up, Sony can't launch their own player, Pannys are in short supply(?), PS3 is definitely a question mark on how many BD discs will attach to the console. Who knows, HD DVD may pick up some more studio and CE support come January. Now wouldn't THAT be nice. Just speculation on my part, but stranger things have happened.

I don't see hddvd getting anymore producers. Maybe someone like Sanyo, but who else?

Obviously you didn't read the rest of my post.

People like my parents don't buy PS3's. DVD didn't take off until standalone decks hit $250... and the rest is history. I don't know anyone that bought a PS2 for the DVD player.

That is why I am going to CES to find out! I wouldn't be surprised if a high end CE company might go HD DVD. Again, just speculation.

Japan entirely moved from LD to DVD via the PS2.

However, I'm not saying that is a realistic model here entirely. But, a lot of people (like myself) want the PS3 for BD as much as games, and maybe more.

I'll be buying a $600 BD player as soon as I can get one for that price with the PS3.

I'm going to try to go to CES myself. And I imagine there will be Toshiba and RCA again against 8+ BD makers.

I've never read so many different analogys is a single thread before. This is cool. My history was a little rusty.:)

What if the PS3 is a below average BR player? What then? I don't put much stock in it to begin because its for games even if its an excellent player.

How well will BR do then. How long will it take the studios to go neutral since they put so much stock in it? No one knows if it will be a good BR player or not.

Is it just me or does the fact that the PS3 does not have an infrared port and uses a bluetooth remote along with limited audio make it a novelty blu-ray player?

Monty those same CE companies were at last years CES and poor Toshiba is still doing better than they are combined. Do you argue with that as well?

HD DVD needs the Sanyo's of the world and other Chineese manufactureres to get invloved so that J6P can afford to get into HD. The Denon's and such will be there soon enough. Right now they are not even needed, judging by current sales. The cheap players $250.00 or less are going to win this thing, not the $1300.00 - $2000.00 players. I will probably buy one of the high dollar units, but how many else will?

While Lost is Disney.

Interesting to see which cracks first.

/carmi

Heh,
This thread is comical.
The consumers have spoken... with their wallets.
'nuf said.

Personally....I really don't care how many CE companys BD has....Toshiba is kicking the piss out of them all.

Exactly. We keep hearing all this stuff on BD50, CE support, studio support, just wait until PS3, just wait until BD-J.....but HD DVD is trumping Blu Ray...I mean look at the sales rankings. Its just pathetic for BD.

BD's biggest problem is price and name recognition....I mean my wife knows what HD is....she knows what DVD is...but when she sees a commecial for a DVD and it says, "also available on Blu Ray Disc....shes confused. I think there are a lot of people in that situation.

Yes, I think you have a point there, plaz.

The bit where he says "neither looks better than the other" had me chuckling.

I think what this thread forgets to do is (1) recognize that the PQ has been better on most HD DVD titles than on most Bluray titles (2) remember that the HD DVD players are one half to one third the price of Bluray (3) remember that HD DVD players and software are outselling Bluray by 10 to 1 and 3 to 1 respectively (4) recognize that the HD DVD players are giving more features than Bluray players.

What this thread seems to do is forget about all of the above and "roll back" the conversation to last year, where the talk was "hey, there's more hardware vendors and exclusive studios, therefore Bluray wins by default" - which we all now know is not true...

Why this is funny....most of the consumers purchasing ps3's will be teenagers.....and they , for the most part, do not have the funds to purchase 1080p tvs or even hi def ones......i have an A1 and I am very happy with it......i truly believe we will have a truce and it will be because of studio pressure....it will be called Blu Ray HD DVD.....or BRHD for short......until then i will enjoy my A1 for 500 us dollars...

You maybe want to look at the average age of 360 owners. The 360 wasn't much cheaper than the PS3 when it came out.

I'll agree somewhat with that but remember, just because ps3 is listed at 499 and 599 us does not mean it will be sold for that price....think 699 and 899 us......now, i want one for games not movies but i wont be able to get one until late 2007 i bet......

Actually, in Japan Playstation 2 was the DVD player that made DVD a mainstream product.

/carmi

Actually, what happened in Japan bore little resemblance to how DVD was adopted here in the states ;)

Actually japanese have less money and smaller ego's than americans hence the term"Big Screen TV" and "Supersize Me".....lol

Sorry, even taking the highest estimates for HD DVD sales (70,000 units split between this country and Japan) for its first months, it has barely hit 0.05% of DVD's installed base. The consumers have not even noticed yet.

/carmi