Robert, first of all it's commendable that you tried to write this paper and it seems like a decent effort to me. However, if I were grading it as a research paper I would point out the following:
1. Why do you belive that the uniqueness and total media metrics are so relevant at this stage. For instance, if you believe this is the case then the fact that these gaps are increasing between DVD and either of these formats means that HD optics in general are doomed?
2. What other historical data did you use to arrive at these metrics as being relevant. For instance, if one format has 10 titles and another has 50, people may care about the gap, but if one has 600 and the other has 720, it may not matter. For instance, a 20 year who dates a 10 year old will be in trouble, but a 60 year old who dates a 40 year old will not raise an eyebrow
3. Did you consider other metrics such as the $ spent per disk sold. For instance if you factor in the total sales & Marketing and player subsidy, what do you get? that would be a financial viability metric.
4. Did you consider the financial ability of people backing each format to continue to back it for a period of time.
5. Did you factor in the costs of production for each format? what are the short term and long term advantages of each?
6. OK. You do talk about Christmas spending being key. However, how many units do you think will be sold ? What % of households will have HD optical players? Is this % something that you can back up by saying, x% adoption is key since if we look at DVD v. VHS the critical share was x...after than VHS had lost and here is where marketing was the key...
I just noted these very quickly while waiting to pick up dinner from an Indian take out in Falls Church (Handi)
. But you get the idea....you have to consider more specific things before making a general conclusion. Your graph looks nice, but it's just another data point. JMHO.