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HD DVD vs Blu-ray - Release Calendar Uniqueness Charts - Page 3

post #61 of 112
2/7/07 at 4:23pm
Okay, after reading this thread I am even more confused...I am an average consumer trying to be better informed....In about a month I am going to be purchasing my first HD LCD and going back and forth on to also purchase the Blu ray or HD DVD player.....Any idea when this war will stop and be able to see who will come up on top??
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post #62 of 112
2/7/07 at 4:28pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by gkonop08 View Post

Okay, after reading this thread I am even more confused...I am an average consumer trying to be better informed....In about a month I am going to be purchasing my first HD LCD and going back and forth on to also purchase the Blu ray or HD DVD player.....Any idea when this war will stop and be able to see who will come up on top??

Find out what movies you want and will want and use that as a guide.
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post #63 of 112
2/7/07 at 4:37pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by gkonop08 View Post

Okay, after reading this thread I am even more confused...I am an average consumer trying to be better informed....In about a month I am going to be purchasing my first HD LCD and going back and forth on to also purchase the Blu ray or HD DVD player.....Any idea when this war will stop and be able to see who will come up on top??

It may be a long time before the war is over. My opinion is you're better off buying something now and enjoying it. It may very well turn out that both formats co-exist, - some future players can play both formats, some of the future disc will have both formats on them. Or both could die out. It's too soon to tell right now.

That being said, you can probably get an HD DVD player cheaper than a BD player right now. On the other hand, in the future there may be more movies available on the BD format. If you are at all interested in gaming, the PS3 is a reasonably priced console/game machine rolled into one, and it's not that expensive. Blu-ray probably won't die, so that is a fairly safe choice.

The glass is half full. Maybe 3/4 full. We have more HD content, and better quality content, every day. Get something, anything and get going.

My final recommendation is this - if you don't mind having a game machine as your primary movie console, get the PS3 and go blu-ray. If you don't like having a game machine, and/or want to save a little money, go HD DVD. But be advised, It's my opinion that of the two formats, HD DVD is a bit more likely to go under than BD at this time.
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post #64 of 112
2/7/07 at 6:16pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

People have been marking the begining of the end of HD DVD format about every 6 months. I hadn't realized you were one of those people

Very true. Like this poll from 10/3/05. A majority had voted yes ...

Is HD DVD essentially dead in the water at this point ?

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=587148
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post #65 of 112
2/7/07 at 6:46pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Very true. Like this poll from 10/3/05. A majority had voted yes ...

Is HD DVD essentially dead in the water at this point ?

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=587148

Ha ha! Classic.
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post #66 of 112
2/7/07 at 7:46pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

Ha ha! Classic.

Before my time here on this side of the AVS forum.

I was still happily posting away on the non-controversial sub $3500 front projector threads. Ah, those were my happy low post count , everybody loved me days.

Then I discovered the wild side of AVS. here in the Blu-ray & HD DVD Areas, and AVS posting life has never been the same.

What's funny about that thread is if you start reading some of the the posts in it.

Coffee spewing funny.
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post #67 of 112
2/7/07 at 10:59pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

How so ? When HD DVD was leading I don't remember you makring any week as the beginning of the end of BD ....

Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

People have been marking the begining of the end of HD DVD format about every 6 months. I hadn't realized you were one of those people

Since I have been tracking the numbers, HD-DVD has always been in the lead for uniqueness and total media, so if there was any date that could be chalked up as the end of Blu-Ray it was from day 1 of the first HD-DVD release. Choosing that date as the end of a format before it has even launched would not be realistic.

I have been crunching these numbers since September and have seen the HD-DVD uniqueness numbers consistantly drop. Additionally looking at the trend lines forcast 3 mounths out, there seems to be a trend for Blu-Ray uniqueness to increase and HD-DVD to decrease.

I know that mid-november shows another crossing of Blu-Ray and HD-DVD but at that time it looked like this...



..which shows that there is no very clear pattern at that time. This is why I have been taking these 'snapshots' every week for posterity.

As for my prediction, it was from a paper I wrote for my Spring 2006 final essay.

Here is the concluding paragraph...

Quote:


Up until mid 2005 both camps, Blu-Ray and HD-DVD, tried to reconcile their differences to prevent the format war that is rapidly approaching. Neither side would yield to the other and no compromise was ever met. They have decided to meet each others on the field of battle, where we the consumer shall decide the winner by which we decide to buy. With one battle reaching deeply into many different arena's it will indeed be costly for the loser involved, including the consumerswho buy into it. This war will not be finished for many years, but once the Christmas 2007 returns are in there will be no turning back. The format that take the stance of substantially increasing its advertising is probably the one heading out the door, as Sony did before the collapse of the BetaMax format. So advertisers get your marketing pitch ready for HD-DVD because Sony will not be crying out to the consumers this time .

Here is the entire paper...
Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD: A Market Analysis
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post #68 of 112
2/15/07 at 12:26am
Thread Starter 
HD-DVD is closing the gap.
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post #69 of 112
2/21/07 at 8:12pm
Thread Starter 
Maybe not.
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post #70 of 112
2/21/07 at 8:34pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert SawyerIII View Post

Personally I believe that the reason for the huge price gap is more economic than technical. With only 1 (prior to CES) producer of HD-DVD drives, Toshiba, they have a HUGE vested interest in getting the drives out into the wild so the media producing companies will see that there is a reason to put their content on this format. With this in mind it has been shown that Toshiba is selling their players of less than it costs to produce them (iSupply), which while very common for the Game Console Industry it is not very common for the Consumer Electronics Industry (especially the 'high end' electronics). The other companies that are producing the BD drives do not have the same vested interest in the market as Toshiba so they are following traditional high end consumer electronics profit margins. The rub is that with 4+ companies producing different BD players eventually (it looks like its starting to happen now) they will start competing for the consumers dollars between themselves which will bring profit margins down even as cost can come down from manufacturing improvements.
?

lets put it this way

Toshiba controls the HD DVD market. They make more hardware as compare to all the BD CEs combined. Toshiba do not compete with HD DVD products from others.

BD CEs - hardware high cost, produce mere number of hardware, need to compete with NUMEROUS other manufacturers. If Panasonic or Sharp releases HD DVD players, i bet they can make tones of money as they are making off their BD players
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post #71 of 112
3/7/07 at 4:50am
Thread Starter 
I decided to advance the graph's lowest date forward for visual clarity reasons, however the data is still being entered in it's entirety. I will take suggestions/comments for or against this change.
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post #72 of 112
3/17/07 at 5:23pm
Thread Starter 
Updated, sorry for the delay.
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post #73 of 112
3/17/07 at 5:59pm
Robert, first of all it's commendable that you tried to write this paper and it seems like a decent effort to me. However, if I were grading it as a research paper I would point out the following:

1. Why do you belive that the uniqueness and total media metrics are so relevant at this stage. For instance, if you believe this is the case then the fact that these gaps are increasing between DVD and either of these formats means that HD optics in general are doomed?

2. What other historical data did you use to arrive at these metrics as being relevant. For instance, if one format has 10 titles and another has 50, people may care about the gap, but if one has 600 and the other has 720, it may not matter. For instance, a 20 year who dates a 10 year old will be in trouble, but a 60 year old who dates a 40 year old will not raise an eyebrow

3. Did you consider other metrics such as the $ spent per disk sold. For instance if you factor in the total sales & Marketing and player subsidy, what do you get? that would be a financial viability metric.

4. Did you consider the financial ability of people backing each format to continue to back it for a period of time.

5. Did you factor in the costs of production for each format? what are the short term and long term advantages of each?

6. OK. You do talk about Christmas spending being key. However, how many units do you think will be sold ? What % of households will have HD optical players? Is this % something that you can back up by saying, x% adoption is key since if we look at DVD v. VHS the critical share was x...after than VHS had lost and here is where marketing was the key...

I just noted these very quickly while waiting to pick up dinner from an Indian take out in Falls Church (Handi) . But you get the idea....you have to consider more specific things before making a general conclusion. Your graph looks nice, but it's just another data point. JMHO.
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post #74 of 112
3/18/07 at 7:01pm
Thread Starter 
Plazman:

The paper I wrote(Early Spring 06) for school was in regards to the how the network effect will play a huge part in the upcoming battle between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray media. That paper was theorized by multiple case studys of VHS vs Beta, the Game console wars from the 90's to early 00's, and the adoption of computer DVD drives over CD-drives during the same period. Though I know that it had grammatical errors (that I missed before turning in) I stand behind that quality of the research that I invested into the effort. I felt at the time that with the traditional adoption rates of consumer electronics which have a 2+ year acceptance before starting to become mainstream and the traditional adoption rates for Game Consoles which is almost immediately mainstream the PS3 was going to play a critical role in the MAJORITY acceptance of Blu-Ray as the High Def DVD standard of the masses.
All this was theorized and written BEFORE the following occurences:
The price of the PS3 was announced
The lack of the quantity of promised PS3 became evident
The slow rollout of Blu-Ray titles was observed
The lower quality transfers onto Blu-Ray were observed
The low yields on the Royal Blue laser diodes
The XBOX360 HD-DVD drive was announced
The bad press of the Sony battery recall
The cost differences between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray players and drives was observed.
The ENORMOUS drop in prices of HD LCD tv's

Try to go back to that time and consider the limited metrics I had to work with and the unforseen problems that have arisen since then. My original supposition was that by the Christmas returns of 2007 the majority will have spoken and declared Blu-Ray the winner.
Note: Not that blu-ray will have won, but the public perception (because of the network effect) will be that the only real format out there will be Blu-Ray

THIS thread is related to a secondary notion that I just found very interesting and should not be used a the end all explanation on which format will win. The reason that I started it is that I found that though HD-DVD lead in the beginning I was interested in the rate of change of the formats positions, so I started charting it out and eventually decided that this forum might like to see the patterns and trends that I observed in Grubert's excellent charts.

Essentualy I made my bets back in March 06 and am using this as an excuse to continue to track the accuracy of my theory. Remember the actual written paper was written as a function of market forces and network effects based on historical precedents.

It would be interesting to write an addendum to the paper 2 years later and see what has transpired, but I am very wrapped up in my current courses as is, and keeping this updated every Wednesday morning has not occurred as often as I would like.

P.S. What did you get? My local Indian Restraunt has the best Chicken Tika Masala and Masala Chi in San Antonio.
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post #75 of 112
4/5/07 at 7:56pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert SawyerIII View Post

Updated.

Do you think the 5% difference is material ?
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post #76 of 112
4/6/07 at 7:53am
Thread Starter 
1st As for changes from last week they were fairly significant by comparison to the regular changes I see.

2nd Mostly the important thing is keeping continuity, updating weekly as regularly as possible (or at least grabbing the info for processing later as regularly as possible).

So "Do you think the 5% difference is material ?", no I do not think it makes much difference in the realm of trying to answer questions about the format wars, but as someone who has been doing the work, following the numbers weekly since August 06, a jump is exciting.

I will try to contain my excitement forthwith.
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post #77 of 112
4/20/07 at 7:31pm
Thread Starter 
Updated:

I was a week behind in processing the data, but I pulled it on time, however I did two weeks of changes and forgot to get the graphs for that week, the data is still accurate however.
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post #78 of 112
4/20/07 at 8:09pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert SawyerIII View Post

So "Do you think the 5% difference is material ?", no I do not think it makes much difference in the realm of trying to answer questions about the format wars, but as someone who has been doing the work, following the numbers weekly since August 06, a jump is exciting.

I will try to contain my excitement forthwith.

I'm not trying to belittle your hard work. Sorry if thats how it felt.

I'm trying to figure out what the data means. It will be nice if you can analyse / interpret the data as well when you post.
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post #79 of 112
4/21/07 at 2:31am
Thread Starter 
Truth be told, I think that it is too soon to really be able to understand what the data means.

For example, I suppose that I could say that because of the Blu-Ray camp ramping up it's release of exclusive titles starting around early November it kept people from assuming the HD-DVD has "all" the titles. This could be marked as a turning point in the consumer consciousness.

I could also say that HD-DVD's slowing of the release of unique titles starting in mid-January could also be a sign of the tide turning to believe that HD-DVD may not be the final solution.

I could even say that Blu-Ray's current and announced release schedule's lack of commitment to exclusive titles shows that this 'war' will take a lot longer to resolve than everyone wishes.

But I won't say that (yet), I have data but not enough to make those kind of wild suppositions (don't think I ever will, from this data).

However I will say that though the changes that occur at the first two of these three points in time are at important, how important is yet to be seen.

All I really hope is that having this data available (even if it is empirical), will help me or someone else down the road back up a hypothesis of their own. For right now, I will gather, collect, and if interesting changes occur I will put a shout out.



The one thing that the data currently shows is that neither side has a commanding monopoly on the media itself at this point. If Blu-Ray or HD-DVD wants to take command of the consumers perceptions they (the production houses that are one format only) need to step up to the plate, what I see now is a lot of Warner and Paramount filling (buffering) the launches and Sony competing with Universal. Maybe a breakdown of which studio when (maybe later).


Nataraj: It did seem like a shot (at first) only because you are normaly more prolithic with your posts, but I realized otherwise once I quit overanalyzing it.
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post #80 of 112
5/2/07 at 3:55pm
Thread Starter 
Until I can get my schedules worked out, I may be posting this bi-weekly, instead of weekly.

It takes 30 seconds to grab the info weekly, but about 30 minutes+ to compile and post it. So I will still grab the info weekly.

Here is the update.
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post #81 of 112
5/2/07 at 4:30pm
This is a great thread, thanks for your work
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post #82 of 112
5/2/07 at 5:23pm
Hey Robert, thanks for doing all this hard work (from a fellow San Antonian)!
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post #83 of 112
5/2/07 at 7:34pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Very true. Like this poll from 10/3/05. A majority had voted yes ...

Is HD DVD essentially dead in the water at this point ?

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=587148

I see. Of course you didn't mention the never ending supply of posts in 2006 claiming HD-DVD had won (before late November that was). It has gone both ways

Quote:


View Poll Results: Is HD DVD essentially dead in the water at this point?
Yes 264 26.14%
No 746 73.86%
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post #84 of 112
5/2/07 at 7:58pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by briankmonkey View Post

Quote:


View Poll Results: Is HD DVD essentially dead in the water at this point?
Yes 264 26.14%
No 746 73.86%

How typical of you to totally miss the context and mispresent.

Since the above poll was an open ended poll - when I resurrected the poll to show the folly of many a BD fan - a lot of people voted without realizing it was an old poll.
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post #85 of 112
5/2/07 at 8:30pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by gkonop08 View Post

Okay, after reading this thread I am even more confused...I am an average consumer trying to be better informed....In about a month I am going to be purchasing my first HD LCD and going back and forth on to also purchase the Blu ray or HD DVD player.....Any idea when this war will stop and be able to see who will come up on top??


If you want to see any Disney movie's (Pirates of the Carribean), Pixar movies (Finding Nemo, Monsters Inc), Fox movies (X-Men, Star Wars), or Sony movies (Spiderman, James Bond)..Then buy Blu-Ray

If you really love Universal Pictures (E.T., Jurrasic park, Jaws) titles above all the movie studio's above and can live without them, then go HD-DVD.
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post #86 of 112
5/3/07 at 11:08am
Quote:


HD-DVD released = 203 / 121 / 59.6%
Blu-ray released = 232/ 148 / 63.8%

This doesn't make sense to me. It sounds to me like you're saying there are 82 HDDVD titles that are not exclusive to that format, but there are 84 bluray titles not exclusive to that format? Why are these 2 figures not the same?
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post #87 of 112
5/3/07 at 3:58pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by h0mi View Post

This doesn't make sense to me. It sounds to me like you're saying there are 82 HDDVD titles that are not exclusive to that format, but there are 84 bluray titles not exclusive to that format? Why are these 2 figures not the same?

Good question. Apart from rounding errors - they should indeed be the same.
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post #88 of 112
5/3/07 at 9:08pm
Thread Starter 
Good catch, let me verify...

On quick count (color search) I see that I missed one HD-DVD exclusive, but the difference is still off by two.

The uniqueness is time based, so for example when HD-DVD started it was at 100% like Blu-Ray, but it's starting point changed downwards over time, while Blu-Ray started at 100% will stay there because Sony will not release their titles on HD-DVD. Because of this only the total (i.e. announced) should have the correct non-unique number, because the matching title may not have launched yet.

I will continue to look for the discrepancy...
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post #89 of 112
5/3/07 at 9:29pm
Thread Starter 
Sahara (Blu-Ray) is on the list twice 10/10 and 10/24
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post #90 of 112
5/3/07 at 10:19pm
Thread Starter 
Found the other one...

12/05 Chronos (listed as exclusive HD-DVD), Chronos Blu-Ray came out 2/13

That should do it.
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