HiDef DVD News VII - News Only : AND WE MEAN IT: NEWS ONLY - Page 13

Nice

I think most of us expected that that was the case. Logic dictates it. In fact, the other day, kjack had posted a link to that new BD ad where WB was prominently mentioned as a "core" BD company. Additionally, earlier this year, someone posted trade ads from WB where WB encouraged the retailers to get behind both formats.

But hey, people will believe what they want to believe and post all kind of nonsense to back it up. And then of course, there is your "buddy" who, since earlier in the year, has been spreading the said garbage/myths about WB to make it seem like HD DVDs studio position is stronger than it really is. And one of the saddest things of this forum has been watching him actually USE individuals to suit his agenda here. But enough of that.

So, "other considerations"...
1.)Interactivity?
2.)TrueHD?
3.)more quanitity of BD50?
3.)Other...TBA

I know you probably cannot say anything, and you don't have to. Just me thinking aloud.

I am very impressed with the consistently high quality encoding of the HD-DVD titles.

I am also rather attracted to the add-on as good value for checking out HD-DVD titles, especially King Kong in HD (now, that is the s***, excuse my french)

Mark: Not Thanks giving here, that happened a few weeks ago.

But I am thankful that in 2006 we finally got HD movies on disks at home. And wish that at least one of these formats takes over the disk media.

May the best format win.

I agree with all of the above.

Believe me, my patience has been heavily tested by the PS3's delay and now, the shortage. But, I find it irresistibly good value (as I do the add-on), so I have to be patient.


P.S. Patience only seems a virtue in hindsight

I remember a Toshiba rep telling me that the ratio was about 5:1 A1 to XA1.

My assumption was that about 50,000 A1's were made, 10,000 HD A2s were made and about 10,000 RCA and Walmarts clones were also produced. Plus or minus 10% for each category.

AFAIK I never saw any to conflict with that in naything I read and a lot that I recall that was consistent with those ballpark numbers.

But thats really history now as they are all shipped and off Toshiba's books now.

Now a lot depends on how quicky they can ramp up the second generation production.

HD DVD supporters talk Q4 '06 and beyond


Of course they may have been quoting Kosty.

so Kosty why do you think that it is a different story. I believe it is a bit cheaper, but they needed to cut a lot to become profitable. If it is really that much cheaper (past the brake even point) my guess they would have also cut the wholesale price (it had lower margins for retailers) and possibly maybe even cut the MRSP a bit. It is still not a soc design that G2 was supposed to be and so the price could not have dropped as some of you think. A small drop in price could even help the sales. No matter how much people like to spin, I doubt neither studios nor Toshiba are happy with the sales so far.

Everything still points to the next version being subsidized. But I guess like the previous one most HD DVDers won't admit it to themselves until the next version.

Understood and agreed. I was just curious in light of your comments where you mentioned they'd probably break even on the 2G A2, and actually make some money on the XA2.

Then I look at kjack's latest post where he clarifies Sigma's position, and has some other interesting tidbits in there about the industry as a whole...really gets you thinking about this whole thing, you know?

Personally, each day I become more and more confident BD is going to win this thing. But that's just me and my $0.02. Earlier this year, I vowed not to do what I did with DVD, which was jump in early and wind up with all kinds of stupid discs/movies that I didn't need. Congo anyone? Also I went through players to get the latest and greatest...spent upwards of 2K on some of the early DVD players!!! Back then, coming from Laserdisc, it all seemed like a great deal to me. So, this time around, I will not jump in until 40 movies I'd consider "immediate purchase with long term replay value" are available on either format. That's going to be an expensive day!!!

@Esox50

I hear you, a while back it didn't seem so strange to drop 2K on a laserdisc player, I mean I dropped 1.1k on a VHS player and 1.2k on my first DVD player (which didn't even decode DTS). Now I look at upcoming prices on players and it's not the same story. Which is why PS3 and Xbox360 Add-on look interesting (apart from the fact that neither will do 5.1 analog output etc.) For me, the Add-on in a HTPC is looking to be the most interesting in the near term, it's been announced to available early next year in Australia for $249 AUD which is cheaper than I thought it would be (My guess was $300 AUD). Just have to wait for the software that can handle it all (including all the audio formats). Once that is available and I know what kind of PC power I'd need, I wouldn't feel at all hesitant to drop some coin on that. Even if the Xbox360 + Add-on works out to be cheaper and easier (I may still get the 360 for gaming anyway), I just don't want to get a AVR or Pre/Pro right now as decoding is still a bit iffy and I'd feel much safer putting money down on say a Creative X-Fi Elite soundcard or something of that nature. I guess they just feel like safer choices as the HTPC components have always got another home should I be disenchanted by the whole experience.

I get the feeling people would rather buy one machine that could play it all at 1 grand vs 2 machines needed to play it all at 500 each. Even though the end result is the same.

Also when I look at the prices in Australia, the price of the Samsung and the high End Toshiba players could buy me a nicer projector that would make viewing my current DVD collection more enjoyable... I believe even more enjoyable than watching HD content on my current projector.

Ramble ramble ramble...

Cheers...
Duy-Khang Hoang

"Fate, it seems, is not without a sense of irony."

This is from a die hard HD-DVD fan...

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=755349

b2b

Personally, each day I become more and more confident that there is way more going on behind the scenes than the little bit we can glean from reading between the lines on some press release or interview.

BD "winning" this thing would require MS having to can the HD-DVD add on, give up HDi, lose all those VC-1 wins, incur the wrath of orphaned XBox HD DVD add on users, and get a very public black eye in the process. They have a formidable cash reserve, while expressing a keen desire to have their software be there in the digital home (which requires some involvement in the format's creation and administration by the way). Are you suggesting they would just give all that up and wait for the download market?

And I make this point again - every scarce blue laser diode on the HD-DVD side is going to a consumer who wants it to play movies, while the vast majority of scarce blue laser diodes on the BD side are going to consumers who may or may not even own an HDTV, or if they do, may be very busy playing games.

They better want a blue laser at some point, right?

Gary

I've seen you post that position many times and it's true. But selling HD "snow-cones" to videophiles dying of thirst in a desert of SD DVD isn't a particularly "hard sell". Getting the general public to buy-in is going to be the trick and one that the PS3 is trying to do.

b2b

Who gives a rip what the industry wants. How about what the consumers want? What a novel concept, eh?

Whichever format the consumers ultimately pick, the winning format will get 100% studio support and 100% CE support.

Formidable cash reserves??? Last I checked they had over $100 Billion sitting in accounts that they don't know what to do with, and that is even after they started handing out dividends. This is like saying OPEC has decent oil reserves.

MS could, if they wanted to buy several studios. They could launch there own CE company to put out a standalone player. Hell, if they wanted to they could open a bank online and put BofA out of business, start an airline to rival Virgin, and still have enough money left over to dabble in fusion reactors.

But just because they could, doesn't mean they should. It would not make since from a business point of view. Right now they are putting their absolute best foot forward with their encoder and the Add-on. If those things do not portend an HD-DVD victory, then they cannot prop it up forever without looking bad to investors. It took Sony ten years to pull the plug on Beta, but they should have after six when then public had spoken. Those who have bought an add-on can always be given coupons to buy other MS toys, but to be honest, they don't have to. Format war or not, obsolescence is a fact of life for CE buyers, and whoever wins there will be a lot of players going into closets when this is over.


In order for HD-DVD to win they absolutely have to get more studio support. They have an absolutely gorgeous picture, but in the long run it is going to be noticeable that big titles will be missing. This may make consumers relegated to the back of the bus, but that is life. Nothing can force studios to change other than profits.

Considering how many delays the core company players have experienced delivering their one format boxes, thus far, one year seems rather short to solve all the issues with the respective formats and tackle the combo issues.

Gary

Uh yeah. I'm just surprised it's taken you this long to figure that out!!! OF COURSE there's a whole bunch of stuff going on behind the scenes. This is why I laugh when people here make some of the statements they do, as if they are in the meetings and "goings on" behind the scenes. I was going to touch upon this earlier today in response to a post directed at me, but cancelled the post. But suffice to say that people who post as if they know what certain companies are doing or being promised behind closed doors have no idea what they are talking about. Trust me on this from experience, sometimes people within the same organization have no idea what other people/divisions in their own organization are promising both internally and externally behind closed doors. It's business. So how do 22 year olds here have ANY idea what is going on in a company at which they do not even work?


No, I think you're putting words in my mouth here. For example, I don't think VC-1 is going anywhere or would be "lost" if BD were to "win". BUT, and this is just one scenario I can think of, what if BD (or HD DVD for that matter, but there is the SPHE factor with that) were to take such a hold and get so much momentum that each and every one of the studios said, "Enough, HD DVD is dead, and we're not going to produce a double inventory anymore. BD is where the action is at. " Microsoft and Toshiba could still perhaps support the HD DVD format and not "can" the add-on, not lose VC-1 (with WB, Universal, etc), but for all practical purposes the format is toast and BD "won". Again, I'm not making a judgement either way or commenting on the likelihood of such a scenario. My point is that a "win" for either side isn't an "all or nothing" propsition for the other (or at least it doesn't have to be).

For me personally, a "win" would be the format that has an array of full featured players at multiple price points and 100% studio support with a steady flow of "buyable" titles. Again, that's my little "wonderful world, happy scenario", and i would consider THAT a "win" for the format that gets there first.

You better give a rip what the industry wants, because if what you want is not sustainable, deliverable, and/or profitable for said industry...the industry consolidates, or there is less innovation, or there ceases to be an industry in and of itself, etc. It's a two way street my friend.

These are not viewed as even ancillary businesses for a software company to be in - but those that could be (say a studio, or record company) put them in a precarious position - controlling content companies as well as delivery of content. Hard to build trust and stay neutral...Sounds familiar....


How about media centers, managed copy, cable card/Sat Card DVRs, streaming media through the home, transfer of movies to portable media (Zune) and stuff they are thinking about that we don't know about? Optical media provides the source for content until downloads get here in full force (and full bit rates). And it's impossible to believe MS will drop the HD add-on, slap a BD drive in the XBox 360 and pretend nothing happened.


But can Sony stick it out if they only control 1/2 the optical video market after 3 years? The first year will be extremely difficult for them financially. If you look at the BD MPEG-LA group (which hasn't decided royalty shares from the format yet) that's quite a group that has to split royalties somehow and yet stay happy. And that doesn't include Sun Microsystems, et. al. Is there really that much money to be had in royalties when you have only 1/2 a market to split up (and a format war forcing prices down and killing profits)?

Wouldn't you agree that the investment has been much greater thus far on the BD side? What do they really have to show for their efforts? I'm not even sure that the PS3 launch even gave them lead in players at this point.

What about the fact that Sony and it's crew is propping up a format which was rejected by the very group who more or less oversees the DVD format? That hasn't impeded adoption of a next-generation format?

So now it's HD DVD's fault that Blu-ray isn't taking off yet?



Still don't understand why one format has to "win". I'm betting they can both survive and all of us on both sides with our various players can enjoy our movies. Not you specifically Anthony, but it still amazes me how much the BD crowd cares about the destruction of HD DVD, as if it ran over their dogs one by one.

Great post Thomopolis. I'll add my two cents on a couple of items. Microsoft didn't enter this market by accident. This is something they've been building toward since the original Xbox release. I've never seen Microsoft back down from a fight, and I believe they understand that the opportunity is here and now. So a strategic retreat seems unlikely in this scenario. A deeper investment would be less surprising. These are just my opinions as a long time watcher of the company.

I believe that Kjack has touched on a point I've made earlier. I expect universal players by Christmas '07. I don't believe either format will score a knockout punch or throw in the towel between now and Christams '07. Once universal players ship, the entire equation changes.

Every time I read a prediction like this, I wonder who is going to pay for what I guess is about a $500 billion dollar investment to make it happen. If you look at what has already been spent and what we have got (not much), I don't think anyone is going to spend that amount of money for movie downloads for a industry that only generates about $27 billion gross per year. The numbers just don't add up.

Take a look at some of the numbers in this article..

http://www.danielsonline.com/news/2003/bortz_study.html

b2b

Well if MS is now making $75 for every Xbox sold and Sony is losing @250 for every PS3 sold, then it doesn't take a lot of units for that cashflow differential to add up.

This is an area I have some familiarity with. The investments are happening by multiple companies to do online movie delivery, and I would suggest that your guess as to the capital neccessary is high. We're still in the very early stages, but progress marches on unstopped.

The design does not use as much silicon and the case and other components are less expensive as well as the model is expected to be produced in much larger quantities. All the G2 models share a lot of common components so the economies are increased.

The MSRP was not reduced as those price points are working at this time. The A1 sold as fast as it could be shipped, virtually by word of mouth, and so there is demand at the $499 price point still. With the Xbox 360 using the $199 price point a $199, $499 $799 pricing structure to get into HD DVD is a lot more rational than the Blu-ray $499/$599 $999 $1299 $1499 current MSRP pricing. Plus keeping the MSRP and MAP at $499 allows dealers teh flexibility to alter there pricing as market conditions dictate. No need to lower the MSRP if dealers can sell them at that point.

Untrue. Toshiba and the studios probably are very happy with the HD A1 and HD XA1 sales and attach rates. They've shipped and sold virtually all production and demand has exceeded supply and the attach rates are higher than SD DVD players. Its production constrained, not demand. The success of the HD A1 is in direct comparison to the failure of the Samsung. Its just that the volumes are still too small for major changes. Everyone is probably waiting for after XMas and for the blu-diode shortages to ease.


I have already reached that point with HD DVD as there are more than 40 movies there I want to own. Soon it will get that way with Blu-ray for me also.

Once more movies are on the street in each format. content becomes less of an issue. After all an average person can't even watch 100 movies in a year. Once there's more than that available that he likes, then thats a critical mass of content.

Some more info on the PS3 non 720p downconversion issue.

Sony has acknowledged the issue.

http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=5032

http://dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=4971

Well you can put a happy face on it all you want, but 70,000 players at half the price of the competition isn't an earth shattering number. In the single month of Oct. 1997 DVD sold 56,407 players. That was "early adopter" numbers too. Neither HD-DVD or BD is generating a lot of interest with the public yet.

b2b