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Format Battle General Discussion Thread: Discuss it here! - Page 2  

post #31 of 6336
Right, I'm sure you can teach a multibillion dollar consumer electronics company on what is smarter CE design.
post #32 of 6336
Looks like the PS3 does indeed cost a fortune to make...$805 for the 20GB model @ $399 Japan price = $400 loss...

But I think the blu ray drive costs more than shown here ($125)...

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...&&#post9186050

post #33 of 6336
Just thought I like to share a couple of slightly old articles I happened to find...

http://ce.seekingalpha.com/article/17605

http://news.com.com/PlayStation+3+co...3-6042226.html

From a business stand point it seems as if Sony's strategy is somewhat similar to when it launched the PS2 of which it had a 78% of the market shares. Thus it was sucessful because it was able to recover the production costs quickly.

But now, with the PS3 the same strategy may not work as well....because the cost of producing is much higher..plus rising costs due to delays .....plus Xbox 360 and Wii are taking away market shares. It's estimated by some analysts that it may take up to 5 years for Sony to recover the costs...and the attach rate per unit maybe close to 30 units.

If any of these predictions prove to be somewhat accirate, it makes all sense in the world why Sony's focus is shifting toward software...and that it's in for a long dry spell of losses.
post #34 of 6336
What funny is, when iSupply estimated the cost of Toshiba player, HD DVD supporters denied to accept it, and very same company did same thing now for PS3, they suddenly take it as a factual data . What a double standard it is
post #35 of 6336
b2b just posted this link on the news only thread.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...=4405&Itemid=2

Andy Estes of Nearby Networks, which runs PS3seeker and Wiiseeker, told the paper, We believe there are going to be Wiis held and released Dec. 17 and that will be the last shipment before Christmas. We think there might be a PS3 shipment about the same time."

I've been told that it's my own fault that I get upset at Sony not delivering on their promisses. So, I think I won't get my hopes up too high on this one.
post #36 of 6336
A while back b2b pointed out that all of those PS3 gamers weren't going to just throw their copy of Talladega Nights in the trash. So what are all those gamers/potential BD enthusiasts doing with their copies of TN?

http://cgi.*********/Talladega-Night...QQcmdZViewItem

Brand New DVD. Came with Sony Playstation 3. Never been used.

I bet after Christmas you can pick up a sealed BD-25 version of TN for a smoking price on line.
post #37 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rio View Post

What funny is, when iSupply estimated the cost of Toshiba player, HD DVD supporters denied to accept it, and very same company did same thing now for PS3, they suddenly take it as a factual data . What a double standard it is

I never did...Problem is for Sony they've got it bad... - 6 million ea. * $400
post #38 of 6336
One difference is that in a PS3, there are a lot of key components which are produced internally (by Sony group) and it leaves much margin to reduce cost. Actually, the picture mikemorel posted clearly stated this (it says "PS3's one is the cost at the initial shipment. Cost/profit structure will be dramatically improved in a short term since many components are internal products.")
post #39 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by What'sHD View Post

I know some 200-300K HD-DVD players are out there, as per figures quoted.

Source please? With 70K G1 Toshibas, 50K HD-DVD add-ons, and maybe a few K HD-A2's, I fail to see how you get 200K let alone 300.
post #40 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam View Post

Either way, they launched with what I would term a "stop gap spec" - just a little something to "tide them over" during the "launch" (I use that term generously), but nowhere near as good as the HDi spec in HD DVD.

Launch BD players may not have PiP (or might, we won't know until software is released). What else do you think is missing that makes BD-J "nowhere near as good"?!?
Quote:


So, they are effectively obsolete before you even get them home.

Lack of network interface certainly doesn't make a player obsolete unless the only reason you bought it was to use the network interface.
Quote:


HD DVD , on the other hand, was ready! Boy was it ready... You don't see three different versions of the HDi spec floating around, nor promises that by JUNE 2007, they be able to do the REAL stuff, do you?

Huh, so with certain titles not working on certain platforms unless you get a firmware upgrade, or not (U-control not working on PC playback), and HDi online component requiring a firmware upgrade according to Toshiba's manual, everything was ready?
Quote:


So that's what I meant - which is pretty much exactly what I put "on the box". The bluray players on sale now, are effectively obsolete.

The fact that a very specific class of bonus feature may not work certainly doesn't make a player obsolete.

- Talk
post #41 of 6336
i have come across many topics on this board showing a concern over the lack of marketing and advertising, the lack of manufacturer support and the lack of production in the hd dvd camp but there is one very important explanation for all this. Toshiba loses money on every unit they produce and sell to the general public. The average net loss on the first generation units was roughly 200 dollars. There is no way Toshiba can convince other manufactures to produce and item and sell it for a loss. Just like sony could not convice pioneer to manufacture its Ps3 like they did their stand alone blue ray player.

Toshiba is willing to do this because they know that the real money is made from the liscensing of the software (i.e sales of the hd-dvd themselves, just like sd dvd's now, and games for the console market). People have to understand that samsung, panasonic and phillips are not supporting blue ray because they think it is better but because they want to make money and blue ray gives them a chance to enter a market that otherwise they could not enter without taking losses on production. Now the marketing is a different story, the blue ray camp has to use gorilla advertising techniques and viral marketing (i.e paying retailers and internet sites to hype the product) because nobody knows what a blue ray is. Hd-dvd has a name that people are familar with, it would not make sense for toshiba who is already losing money on units to agressively invest in advertising a product whose name is already familar in the eyes of the GP. Really, the only thing Hd-dvd must do is to counter the BR's massive pr campaign by ensuring that in each retail store an hd-dvd unit is being demo'd near or next to blue ray players, and to increase volume of production. I dont see why toshiba has to bear the brunt of this on their own, microsoft is one of the riches companies in the world they need to be pushing them harder for some monetary support. First, they are lackin in the demo endcap areas in retail stores and number of units produced. For them to waste money in intensive advertising like the br camp is doing now would be stupid, because it not neccesarry.

Once the average joe sees a blue ray player and HD dvd player side by side playing movies there is no way a salesperson will be able to convice them that BD is worth 500 more (the newer toshiba AX2 is a different story and maybe things will change unless they take losses on those units but thats unlikey with the high price tag).

I know toshiba is losing money but really all they need to do is hit up MS for some dough so they can crank out more units and get those end caps going. If u really think about it Toshiba is actually banking on winninig this format war and sony is not. Why else would toshiba be willing to lose money on units and sony is persistant to milk the public for as much as possible.

Not saying one format is better then the other just saying that just because u dont see tv comericals for HD-tv does not mean toshiba does not know what they are doing. Trust me blue ray needs it more the HD-dvd. Ask anyone over 50 what a hd-dvd is and ask them what a blue ray is and u will see. Even if they dont know exactly what hd-dvd is they atleast know its a movie, blu ray u could get a wide range of responses but mostly they think its something in the water (and remember the 50year old range is the demographic with all the cash right now).
post #42 of 6336
The paragraph return key is your friend.
post #43 of 6336
edvedder.

ask everybody over 50? the target market for both bluray and hd-dvd at this moment is between 18 and 36.

there has been 42.000 hd-dvd xbox360 add ons sold in 2 weeks time. i dont know sale data of toshiba standalone players, but my guess is that they didnt sold 42.000 units in 2 weeks. but more like 6 months.

at this moment both hd-dvd and bluray are going for the gamer market so to speak. for a new format to succeed you first need a strong basis. once that is done. then you can start marketing the older generation.

yes the older generation have money. but to turn them from dvd to hd-dvd or bluray will be very hard to do.

both bluray and toshiba need guerila marketing to succeed. bluray is doing big marketing now. but hd-dvd aint doing it at this moment. and key titles are being delayed for both formats.

mid 2007 till xmas 2007 will be the time to see if hd-dvd or if bluray will succeed or. maybe both will succeed or both will fail. very intresting times ahead for sure.
post #44 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rio View Post

One difference is that in a PS3, there are a lot of key components which are produced internally (by Sony group)

I hope you could acknowledge that sometimes it is better, sometimes worse to produce parts in house. Especially parts which you are not accostomed to make - e.g. blue laser diodes.

Quote:


and it leaves much margin to reduce cost. Actually, the picture mikemorel posted clearly stated this (it says "PS3's one is the cost at the initial shipment. Cost/profit structure will be dramatically improved in a short term since many components are internal products.")

Internal costs can cost as much or more than external costs, depending on who is doing the work. And blue laser diodes have proven to be a tough nut to crack. Sony's core expertise is not blue laser diodes. Good thing Sharp is there to partially bail Sony out. One Japanese firm helping another.

Woops Sharp is a MPEG-LA blu ray supporter. They get royalties. So that's why they are helping out...
post #45 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by Talkstr8t View Post

Source please? With 70K G1 Toshibas, 50K HD-DVD add-ons, and maybe a few K HD-A2's, I fail to see how you get 200K let alone 300.

Fair enough. I took gospel as truth. I think 130K woulda been more accurate.
post #46 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post

I hope you could acknowledge that sometimes it is better, sometimes worse to produce parts in house. Especially parts which you are not accostomed to make - e.g. blue laser diodes.

Internal costs can cost as much or more than external costs, depending on who is doing the work. And blue laser diodes have proven to be a tough nut to crack. Sony's core expertise is not blue laser diodes. Good thing Sharp is there to partially bail Sony out. One Japanese firm helping another.

Woops Sharp is a MPEG-LA blu ray supporter. They get royalties. So that's why they are helping out...

Gee Mike, I think you are just makin' stuff up again...
Quote:


November 1969: Sony Shiroishi Semiconductor Inc. established
1970: Manufacture of power transistors started
1986: Manufacture of laser diodes started
1989: Manufacture of laser couplers started
January 1994: ISO9002 certification acquired (manufacture of compound semiconductors)
March 1997: ISO14001 certification acquired
July 1997: Wafer process (post epitaxial) manufacturing started
July 1998: MOCVD manufacturing started

April 1999: Development center established
November 2000: Occupational Health & Safety Management System (JACO standard) certification acquired
April 2001: Building 2 completed
January 2002: ISO9001 certification acquired (Year 2000 Standard)
December 2002: Received the Ibuka Prize Incentive Award for development of blue-violet laser devices
May 2003: Building 3 completed with the intention of mass producing blue-violet lasers

November 2004: Celebrated the 35th anniversary of the establishment of Sony Shiroishi Semiconductor Inc.

Quote:


In laser diode manufacturing, MOCVD* crystal growth is said to be the first, and largest, difficulty. Sony Shiroishi Semiconductor is a manufacturing site that is unique in the world, even if we only consider its unified production system, which includes all four manufacturing processes from MOCVD, to the following wafer, assembly, and testing processes.
However, this site's uniqueness does not stop there: Sony moved its blue-violet laser
development group here from the Research Center in Yokohama in 1999. By being entrusted with the development and design of the blue-violet laser for the next generation of large-capacity optical discs, Sony Shiroishi Semiconductor became a critical site that holds the fate of optical media in its hands.

http://www.sony.net/Products/SC-HP/c.../sideview.html

b2b
post #47 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by b2bonez View Post

Gee Mike, I think you are just makin' stuff up again...


http://www.sony.net/Products/SC-HP/c.../sideview.html

b2b

You want to reign that mess of a post in and make a point? Because I really didn't get it...

And if your post includes a Sony PR message...I'm not much interested in that...Sony lies like nobody's business.
post #48 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post

You want to reign that mess of a post in and make a point? Because I really didn't get it...

And if your post includes a Sony PR message...I'm not much interested in that...Sony lies like nobody's business.

Didn't figure you would...

b2b
post #49 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by b2bonez View Post

Didn't figure you would...

b2b

Why would I? Sony is going down. Not because of me, or any one else here, but because of the introduction of Blu-Ray to the PS3. $500/$600 per box, and retarted DVD players from BD companies will sell in the hundreds.

MS will drop prices soon, and will keep the pressure on.

HD-DVD is cheaper to produce. And discs are cheaper. It's like Windows vs. OS2, all over again.
post #50 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by Talkstr8t View Post

Launch BD players may not have PiP (or might, we won't know until software is released). What else do you think is missing that makes BD-J "nowhere near as good"?!?
Lack of network interface certainly doesn't make a player obsolete unless the only reason you bought it was to use the network interface.
Huh, so with certain titles not working on certain platforms unless you get a firmware upgrade, or not (U-control not working on PC playback), and HDi online component requiring a firmware upgrade according to Toshiba's manual, everything was ready?
The fact that a very specific class of bonus feature may not work certainly doesn't make a player obsolete.

- Talk

While I specifically avoided the use of "obsolete" in my discussion of the player, as I think it's too strong of a word (hence I'm not surprised to see rdjam use it ), I do certainly think that there's a degree of significant issue there.

For instance, Dell knows Vista is coming, and while selling a system now that doesn't have the necessary GPU horsepower to run Aero, significant new OS interface feature, doens't necessarily make that PC obsolete, is is certainly going to be deprecated in the mind of the user. Hence MS publishes both minumum specs and recommeded specs for the software. And logo programs for "Vista Ready", etc... And Dell will have online advisors when you order. This sort of compatability info and consumer education is what is missing from the BDA.

So in one sense I agree with you, Talk: it won't be obsolete in the strict sens of the word. But where I disagree is where there's any real clear indication what will and won't work on systems in the next 6-9 months. Even here insiders like yourself can't say for certaintly... what chance does a consumer have?
post #51 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by b2bonez View Post

Gee Mike, I think you are just makin' stuff up again...


Quote:
May 2003: Building 3 completed with the intention of mass producing blue-violet lasers

b2b

Well good intentions and practical reality are often at odds. Sony's recent blame of delay and shortage on diode problems would seem to support that.

"Best laid plans of mice & men", and all that...
post #52 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rio View Post

What funny is, when iSupply estimated the cost of Toshiba player, HD DVD supporters denied to accept it, and very same company did same thing now for PS3, they suddenly take it as a factual data . What a double standard it is

Well I think the general consensus was that it was a little high and not by much for the HD A1 and thus the HD A1 was losing money. Isuppli made the subsidy at $175 per player. The more expensive HD XA1 used the same guts and sold for $300 more and probably broke even. most HD DVD backers said that those costs might be high because Toshiba also produced laptops and we didn't know their sourcing costs.

But the major point was that the Toshiba first generation subsidy is a different animal than the PS3 subsidy in several critical ways.

First, it applies to a limited production run. Assuming a maximum subsidy of $175 per all probable 70,000 units built is only a 12,250,000 one time investment. That could almost be considered an advertising expense. Consider that the costs were probably not that high in reality, and that HD XA1s didn't lose as much as you get somewhere between 0 and 8-9 million dollars if iSuppli's numbers were accurate. That could almost be considered a wise marketing write off to be first to market and gain early sales and early adopter support. It worked here on AVS to convince people to try it out and it made a lot of us HD DVD supporters.

Compare that to a 300-400 loss on a console that has to be made up for software sales. The PS3 is going to be available in the millions, not the tens of thousands. Assuming a low 4,000,000 PS3s at a conservative $300 loss, thats a huge number times a big number. 4,000,000 x 300 = 1,200,000,000 or a 1.2 Billion dollar subsidy that has to be made up in software sales. That Billion with a B.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Seriously....one question:

What is your concern about Toshiba taking a loss on the Gen 1 players?

The way I feel about it is this:

First, it may not be true. The teardown analysis is an estimate only. Toshiba builds PCs and has buying power, a similar laptop at cost could be built for $500. Intel and other component makers have an incentive to provide components for free. Etc. Etc. Only Toshiba knows the costs.

Next even if it was true, assuming a $200 loss per unit and 70,000 units thats an one time $14,000,000 subsidy to launch the HD DVD format and prime the demand. The Blu-Ray group just wasted millions this month on the format launch which hardly affected the Samsung sales.

Since the current player is PC based and already has been used for four firmware updates, the current players being released is in effect a large scale final beta or release candidate test that has succeeded in getting a positive impression among first adopters.

If Toshiba did subsidize the launch, what it did buy was a first to market advantage, a product demonstration that the HD DVD technology worked, highlighted the flaws in the Blu-Ray MPEG2 SL25 picture and raise the bar that the G1 Blu-Ray ran into to. And created great word of mouth advertising and created evengelical users and converted many people to the HD DVD camp. It also may have pushed content providers to release more movies to the format. Thats seems to me to be a pretty good deal for the money.

The next generation of HD DVD players will have more refined designs and will be cheaper to build. Software on a Chip and more straightforward components produced in larger quantities will be cheaper to build. So even if you assume a loss per unit, it will likely be reduced in the future.

The cost for a comparable HD DVD unit and a Blu-Ray unit produced in the same quantities is likely to have the HD DVD unit cheaper as it is closer to a CE standard DVD player than the Blu-Ray player.

If Toshiba added extra goodies, multiple DSPs etc, to provide a premium early adopter experience, then its a good value for the consumer.

The only significant concern would be if Toshiba would in the future take a large loss on millions of units. But thats probably not going to happen.

Any subsidy argument also applies to the Playstation 3 where because of the volume involved Sony's risk is much greater. And Toshiba has already reaped the rewards with a player that has came first to market with performance that counts.

If Toshiba has subsidized the launch, still unproven IMHO, then what we have is a win win sitution for Toshiba RCA and consumers. The HD DVD camp gains an advantage and only Sony and the Blu-RAy camp suffers. Not Consumers.

If Toshiba is not selling at a loss, then they have an even greater advantage.

Again, the HD DVD lose on every player, even if it is occuring, is a TEMPORARY situation and is sustainable by Toshiba in the short term.

So who cares? I like it if consumers are getting a better deal.

IMHO

Please tell me what I am missing.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...64#post8017264


The PS3 subsidy is a much larger gamble than the HD A1 subsidy was. Plus its now in the past, Toshiba has easily absorbed that loss and moved on, none the less for wear, and in a different and better market position. The PS3 subsidy is still in the future and if PS3 software sales (movie and game) don't take off to cover it, then Sony's strategy will bleed cash in a massive manner.
post #53 of 6336
Top 10 most significant Hardware of 2006

#7 HD DVD, Blu-ray (tie)

http://www.tgdaily.com/2006/12/15/tg...006/page4.html

Predictions for 2007:
The HD format war will really begin to take off next year, with the PS3 becoming much more widely available and consumer awareness about the formats continues to grow, combined with price cuts in base models of players. While we currently can simply say that HD DVD has won the first round of the battle, we will be able to point to a likely winner by the end of next year.
post #54 of 6336
Kosty

You have a knack for stating the obvious and making sound like a revelation.

For Sony and Microsoft thats how their console businesses work. This isnt a secret. You've not cracked any secret codes.

You make it sound like Sony is new to the console game and are not aware of the consequences if they get it wrong. It seems you believe if you keep on repeating the pitfalls, ad nauseum, you'll take on some sort of mystical sage like qualities.

Do you believe (even with Sony's absolutely calamatous performances in the last year) that the ps3 will be a failure(sell less than 8 million) in its first year?

Because, imho, that what it will take for all your dreams to come true and even the most cynical, pessimistic part of me cant see that happening.
post #55 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by edvedder View Post

the blue ray camp has to use gorilla advertising techniques and viral marketing (i.e paying retailers and internet sites to hype the product) because nobody knows what a blue ray is.

These "gorilla [sic] advertising techniques" are standard for all retail products. You want a given TV or A/V product advertised by Best Buy or put on an endcap? You have to pay for it. That's simply part of retailing today from all the major outlets. This is certainly not a sign of desparation by the Blu-ray camp, but it's a clear advantage when you've got all the major CE vendors (other than Toshiba) selling the same format.

Quote:
Really, the only thing Hd-dvd must do is to counter the BR's massive pr campaign by ensuring that in each retail store an hd-dvd unit is being demo'd near or next to blue ray players, and to increase volume of production. Once the average joe sees a blue ray player and HD dvd player side by side playing movies there is no way a salesperson will be able to convice them that BD is worth 500 more.

Unless the consumer asks why no one but Toshiba is supporting the format, or why they can't get any Disney or Fox or Sony/Columbia movies, or why there are no HD-DVD PC burners or camcorders. For consumers wary of a format war, the one with players from many vendors (and an incredibly high-profile product like the PS3 which guarantees future support for Blu-ray) will look like a far less risky purchase.

- Talk
post #56 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by b2bonez View Post

Gee Mike, I think you are just makin' stuff up again...


http://www.sony.net/Products/SC-HP/c.../sideview.html

b2b

All very interesting b2b, but it doesn't change the reality. Sony is clearly having problems fixing their yield problems on blue lasers. They bet the farm (or should I say the gaming division) on having yields fixed by this fall. Their gamble didn't work out.

The penalty. PS3 trails WII sales in Japan by a big margin with no hope in sight of catching up. The PS3 will end this year well behind the Xbox360 in North America (about an order of magnitude difference). None of this is good news for the trojan horse strategy.

The format war hasn't been decided yet, but we'll have a good idea of the winners and loosers in the console war by the end of the month.

BTW on that last link you posted. I thought it was interesting that Sony went from claiming 2 Million PS3s by the end of the year to 900,000 PS3s by the end of the year. I'm no less skeptical of the latest revised number than the previous revised number.
post #57 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by B DIzzle View Post

Kosty

You have a knack for stating the obvious and making sound like a revelation.

For Sony and Microsoft thats how their console businesses work. This isnt a secret. You've not cracked any secret codes.

You make it sound like Sony is new to the console game and are not aware of the consequences if they get it wrong. It seems you believe if you keep on repeating the pitfalls, ad nauseum, you'll take on some sort of mystical sage like qualities.

Do you believe (even with Sony's absolutely calamatous performances in the last year) that the ps3 will be a failure(sell less than 8 million) in its first year?

Because, imho, that what it will take for all your dreams to come true and even the most cynical, pessimistic part of me cant see that happening.

I'd like to answer this one as well. Yes, Sony will sell less than 8 Million PS3s in the first year.
post #58 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post

Why would I? Sony is going down. Not because of me, or any one else here, but because of the introduction of Blu-Ray to the PS3. $500/$600 per box, and retarted [sic] DVD players from BD companies will sell in the hundreds.

Wishful thinking. In spite of their huge R&D costs and subsidies, Sony has still been consistently profitable the last few years and will be (barely) this year. The PS2 is incredibly profitable - continues to be the best-selling game system by a wide margin. You think they're subsidizing that? The PS3 will provide the same franchise, but pull in even more revenue since it ensures the success of Blu-ray and will be a tremendous home media center. Very high costs to start with, no question, but great rewards as well given how terrific the hardware has turned out. Compare this with Microsoft, who has reportedly lost $6B on all of their hardware efforts (Xbox/Xbox 360, Zune, Windows Mobile, etc.). They've spent many, many years trying to profit from these efforts and they are still years away from actually doing so.
Quote:
HD-DVD is cheaper to produce. And discs are cheaper.

And a red-laser HD DVD player (DivxHD or WMV-HD) is far cheaper than both, yet there is virtually no consumer interest. Just being cheaper is certainly not sufficient for market success. Incidentally, when is the last time you saw a one CE company format be successful?
post #59 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by scaesare View Post

So in one sense I agree with you, Talk: it won't be obsolete in the strict sens of the word. But where I disagree is where there's any real clear indication what will and won't work on systems in the next 6-9 months. Even here insiders like yourself can't say for certaintly... what chance does a consumer have?

I don't disagree that there hasn't been much transparency around the profiles and what each player supports. The BDA could probably be more proactive in describing the profiles, but ultimately it's up to each player manufacturer to describe what features they support or don't support. I don't think this will be an issue by next Fall, when I expect virtually all players in the market will support BD-Live. Given that the standalone market today is really targeted at well-educated early adopters who are probably more willing than most to upgrade equipment frequently and probably will number less than 100K sales of 1G players, I think this early period of uncertainty won't be a major issue going forward, especially since the PS3 would appear to be capable of full BD-Live support.
Quote:
Do you know of those chips support all of the necessary features for -Live as well? Understanding of course that you'd also have to supply the DRAM for persistent storage, and the PHY for the network connection, but are memory controllers and network support on the chips to take advantage of ?

I believe so (Keith and Tom or Google can likely answer that question quickly). If not, it's probably a trivial amount of peripheral hardware needed to do so.

- Talk
post #60 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2Channel View Post

All very interesting b2b, but it doesn't change the reality. Sony is clearly having problems fixing their yield problems on blue lasers. They bet the farm (or should I say the gaming division) on having yields fixed by this fall. Their gamble didn't work out.

Perhaps in the short term (and there's no indication anyone else can get higher yields, which would impact HD-DVD as well if there were sufficient demand).
Quote:
The penalty. PS3 trails WII sales in Japan by a big margin with no hope in sight of catching up.

The Wii isn't the PS3's prime competition, the Xbox 360 is.
Quote:
The PS3 will end this year well behind the Xbox360 in North America (about an order of magnitude difference). None of this is good news for the trojan horse strategy.

Short-term issue. The race will be far closer by next summer, when there will likely be over 6M PS3's and perhaps 11M Xbox 360's.
Quote:
The format war hasn't been decided yet, but we'll have a good idea of the winners and loosers in the console war by the end of the month.

This isn't a sprint, it's a marathon. The only way we know anything by the end of the month is if there are PS3's sitting unsold on the shelf.
Quote:
BTW on that last link you posted. I thought it was interesting that Sony went from claiming 2 Million PS3s by the end of the year to 900,000 PS3s by the end of the year. I'm no less skeptical of the latest revised number than the previous revised number.

Sony has reiterated their expectation that they will have 2M units out in Japan and North America by the end of the year. If they know they can't come anywhere close to this there would be major investor consequences, so we can accept that, given how close the timeframe is, there is reason to believe this is fairly realistic. Even PJ McNealy, one of the most conservative analysts, has said he expects there to be nearly 1M PS3's in the US by end of year.
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