Format Battle General Discussion Thread: Discuss it here! - Page 3  

Two comments.

Microsoft is in a much better financial position to absorb huge bets (like the ones you listed) than Sony is (barely profitable this year, possibly not profitable next year).

When is the last time you saw a one CE company format be successful? I'll go out on a limb and say that I expect CES will be interesting.

Since the original thread changed to a news only thread for anyone curious here is the post I am responding to.


Saying that current Blu-ray players are obsolete is a complete and utter lie and I believe you know that. If you really wanted to say that current Blu-ray players didn't have certain features that current HD DVD players have you could have easily made such a statement for your signature. Actions speak louder than words and until you change that signature all I see is a poster so desperate to attack Blu-ray that they are willing to say basically anything about it.



Than put something in your signature along the lines of "Not all extra features will work on current Blu-ray players". That of course wouldn't have the same level of negativity but at least it would be true.

Sorry if already posted.

"Playstation, Xbox, and Wii: Why did Sony Fail?"

http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback159.html

Just to ask this but why do the mods allow rdjam's signature when it obviously breaks forum rules? And there will be some people who read rdjam's signature and will actually believe it. Even those who strongly support HD DVD know that is wrong so why isn't there more backlash against it?

Ahhh....but that's not the case. Based on the projections of Mr. Fujii at Toshiba, they are expecting a grand total of 600,000 HD-DVD devices being sold by the end of March 07. The HD-DVD group is only using blue lasers in devices that are being purchased for watching movies (stand alone players, xbox add-on). They don't need big quantities to generate lots of HD-DVD movie sales.

In contrast Sony needs to ship blue lasers in every PS3. Some PS3 owners will adopt BD, others are selling their sealed copy of TN on e-bay and craigs list. Andy Parsons has stated the he expects at least a 33% BD adoption rate among PS3 buyers. I think 10% is a generous number. This makes the blue laser shortage an HD-DVD advantage.

As for when yields will improve, I invite you to define "short term."


Every Wii sold is one more home that is unlikely to buy a PS3. Loosing the sale to an Xbox360 is more painful, but both hurt PS3 sales.


I've said it before, I'll say it again. You can have poor sales for two reasons, either people don't want to buy your product or you can't produce your product in sufficient quantities. Sony is well on track to loosing it's dominance in the console market because of the second reason.


I full on expect there will be major consequences. I strongly recommend that you watch "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room." It's available on Blu-Ray, by the way. People often forget that when you find yourself in a hole with a shovel in your hands, the first thing you need to do is stop digging. I'm not saying that Sony is in the same position as Enron, but if you believe that a big company that is very profitable can't begin to make big gambles that fail and won't lie to try and hold things together, you're wrong. As Jeff Skilling said at the end.......if we only had a little more time to turn things around.

Here's why I'm very skeptical about their projections. Epitaxial is about as dark an art as there is in technology. They can crack the magic formula tomorrow, or they can keep on chasing the elusive goal for years. It's not a linear progression.

Well that is surprising since usually to generate lots of movie sales you require lots of players.



I never knew that buying one console prevented you from buying the others. Especially since besides my PS3 I also own a PS2, Xbox, and Gamecube. Also I thought that even Nintendo expected most people who bought a Wii to also buy one of the other game consoles.



So because of the first month of PS3 sales you are already proclaiming that Sony is well on track to losing this console war? Jumping the gun just a bit aren't you?

Sony muddied the waters with the trojan horse strategy. (1) PS3 does not equal (1) HD-A2 as far as disc sales. Only a percentage of PS3 players will be used for movies.


If there is data showing that the majority of console buyers buy more than one console, I'd be interested in seeing it.


In the first month Sony has revealed that they do not have the yield issue solved for blue lasers. They may find the magic formula tomorrow, but more likely they will not be able to solve this soon. This spells failure for them.

With every passing month, more and more game developers will shift their bets to consoles that have the installed base and momentum. These things are self perpetuating. It's very hard to recover lost momentum.

I agree that only a percentage of PS3s will be used for Blu-ray playback but how do you know that the HD-A2 will generate more sales than the PS3? After all there will be a lot of PS3 consoles sold over the next several months.



When did I say that? I was just disagreeing with the statement that someone who buys a Wii is unlikely to buy a PS3 since I think it is a bit early to start stating that as a fact.



Well from what I can see the PS3 is likely to sell better this year than the Xbox 360 did last year. As such excuse me if I find prophecies of doom for the PS3 to be at best wishful thinking.

My favorite analyst (haha) Michael Pachter has chimed in about PS3 and BR:

Next-gen DVD battle will decide console war - Pachter
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=16505

And I think Pachter is completely off his rocker. The next-gen console war will be won or lost with GAMES as always.

These are game consoles. This category's outcome will not be decided by the freaking MOTION-PICTURE industry.

And right now, you have to see that Microsoft has momentum. A larger userbase, a lower price (with greater flexibility to price drop), a solid game library (with many great titles set to release in the first half of '07), and that "critical mass" that happens once a console reaches a certain penetration point, as mentioned above where people buy the console because their friends have it too.

Meanwhile, Sony's got its brand. Something they've undermined among their fanbase by releasing a game console that costs $500-600 with little room (if any) to drop in the near future.

With the botched launch, MS stands to actually accelerate AWAY from Sony this year, and game developers have to see that it makes more sense to put their games on the console with the highest install base and the easiest (and less expensive) development environment. Given that PS3's price may slow adoption of the console, it's not inconceivable that 360 may continue to pull away for a good part of next year. This will definitely impact developers' decisions and if 360 gets the devs and the games, PS3 will never catch up.

This is all a domino effect that started the moment Sony decided to saddle PS3 with Blu-ray, and it started picking up speed the day Kaz Hirai uttered those words, "Five-hundred ninety-nine U.S. dollars." Look at all the bad press Sony has garnered recently, for PS3 as well as Blu-Ray. The tiles are in motion, and I think a major upset is inevitable.

Let me clarify. 100 HD-A2's will sell more movies than 100 PS3s. The PS3 can overcome with sheer numbers, but that's where the blue laser shortage comes into play.


Yes, unlikely. Out of 100 homes that buy a Wii, I expect that a majority will not buy a second console, hence hampering the PS3 in over all sales potential because of their weak launch at the critical Christmas season.


Only if Sony can solve their blue laser supply problems.

HD-DVD fans harping on Sony =

b2b

It does to the studios, who control the movie side of the fence. Their marketing budgets will use the number of BD machines, not the attach rate. The same thought process that produces the draconian behavior complained about, produces a cultural thinking that ALL people want to watch their movies, regardless of why the machines were originally purchased.

Ken

this is why u r still not on my ignore list. you make some of the most entertaining posts

You haven't seen the recent quote from the CEO of Time Warner saying he expects the PS3 to have little impact on BD movie sales?

Yes - that certainly blows my theories. Sure makes me wonder then why they are releasing on BD then. If I'm a stockholder I'm wondering why are they incurring the loss? Without the PS3, there aren't enough BD players in existence to justify the expenditure and won't be for a long time, if ever... Same is true on the HD-DVD side as Xbox addon doubles the number. Why would the attach rate for PS3 be any different? In fact, given the PS3 IS the low cost player for BD, the attach rate would be higher in theory since HD-DVD has other low cost options to the XBox add-on.....

In the end, he's the CEO and I'm not; guess I'll go fishing.... lot more fun anyway; at least I'm smarter than most of the fish....

ken
I think I will make a note though to avoid Time Warner stock; just in case this AOL company might be wrong here....

Yes, entertaining...but I also think with Sony's "new format" record and their overall record from the last year + on many fronts...it could possibly be more like "Consumers harping on Sony."

Any unsupported features wouldn't show up in the user interface. And somehow I really doubt the Toshiba players can decode HD secondary video for PIP. Do they support WMA Pro audio decoding without a software update? No player can fully support all possible features out of the gate -- they are too complex to develop for.

Even you are thinking of Sony as a dead horse now?

Good point, and I was just saying that it wouldn't be hard for rdjam to make a better statement than the one that is currently in his signature. In my opinion implying that all Blu-ray players until June of next year are obsolete is just plain deceptive.

Nope. Sony is fine and moving right along. It just gets tiresome hearing the same old talking points from the "look and sound of lips moving" play list..

You guys need to get together and come up with a new script to read from...

b2b

The 4th Quarter is the most profitable for all retailers. It is even a more crucial period for Video Game systems as prices have hit a point that takes Birthday presents and such out of the equation for a large percentage of the buying public. As much as some people want to bash MS and point out that they didn't have the greatest launch, it really needs to be looked at more in depth. MS was right in launching first. I believe as did alot of others that Sony would have a hard time making there launch date. MS had there own supply issues at launch, but the key is they were the only show in town, there was no other next gen console to apply the pressure. SUre they misssed some sales, but they accomplished what they needed to. Spring time passes and now its a November launch for Sony. Again MS analyzes the situation and probably prepares 2 scenarios.1) Being the potential price cut we all heard about 2) The let it ride through 4th quarter as Sony will obviously have significant supply issues....Well MS played there cards right. Sure they could have applied more pressure by dropping the price and selling more units this quarter, but I believe they were smart to get another quarter of heavy sales at full price. This is especially important based on the drop in Manufacturing costs on the 360 where they are now making minnimal $$ off of the hardware. Now Sony is going to get as many units as they can in the US before year end, because come Q1 2007 - Q3 2007 there will be an expected slow down in sales and stock will be on shelves plentiful. Now I am positive that MS has a price drop planned for Spring no later then Q2, but most likely Q1 of 2007. They are in the perfect spot to do it and potentially bring the Core below the cost of the Wii and the Premium just $50 above the cost of the Wii. This is significant because MS has to also compete with Nintendo. This is going to be such a huge advantage and what should keep MS on pace or most likely outpace Sony in 2007 and maintain an installed base lead. Sony is really no position to drop there price until at th eearliest 4th Quarter. Recent History has proven that there is a sweet spot around $200 for heavy traffic of console sales. I think teh Wii has shown this at present. Now add Halo 3 and I just can't see Sony passing MS in 2007 or even chopping marginally into the lead in NA. Even if you are PS3 loyalist you would be silly to discount Halo 3 and it's appeal, the numbers clearly prove it. Now Japan Sony will defenitely kill MS there, but now it looks like the Wii could cut into there penetration there significantly which again inadvertantly helps MS. I mean I really think MS made most of the right moves here and are in the drivers seat. I would be suprised IF MS didn't maintain an NA and Europe lead on Sony through the life of these Console Cycles. And looking ahead MS should be able to come out 1st again ......

why isn't there more backlash against it?

same reason I don't get upset when the nutjobs in San Francisco make a new sign to wave in toursists' faces. Not saying rdjm is a nutjob, he's just obviously not objective. That based on his posts, his website, his petition, and did I mention his posts. If someone is obviously not objective, then anything that goes in their signature doesn't really carry any weight.

If Alex or Kjack put something like that in their sig, it would be annoying. If you or B2B put something like that about HD-DVD, no one would care or notice.

I personally have never owned any form of Play station as I dont play much video games but Im pretty sure PS2's sold a tremendous amount more than xbox or xbox 360s. Anyone know the exact numbers. Anyone know why the PS3 wouldnt do the same thing? People werent camping out 3 and 4 days in advance and spending 2000 on ebay for a dying system or company. What was the starting price of the XBOX 360? wasnt it only like 100 dollars cheaper? And anyone who doesnt think in a few years when a new XBOX hits it wont be 600 dollars or more is crazy?

We are all suckers. We all want the newest and best and exciting technological advances and we want them now.

I guess that makes sense, but I have the suspicion that if someone said something that was obviously wrong about HD DVD that there would be a lot more posters complaining about it.



I am not so sure about that but personally I wouldn't do such a thing simply to put that to the test.



Though history can be useful the past does not always reflect the future and the fortunes of a company can change. As such simply because the PS2 did very well does not guarantee that the PS3 will do so as well. Personally speaking though in the last few weeks of owning a PS3 I am rather optimistic about its future.

I understand history doesnt always repeat themselves but Im pretty sure most people have a PS2 are very likely to get the PS3 and so forth and so on. I beleive it sold 25 millions units or so. Again on that number correct me if Im wrong and the xbox and xbox 360 were closer to single digits. Again any haters Im not sure the exact numbers. If anyone has them please let me know and It just seems logical most gamers will continue along with there respective game systems as they can play there old games on there new systems also.

I think these are all US numbers..

http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=14737

b2b

WOW. That is a lot of PS2's. So even with less then expected units ready to sell imediately, I am pretty sure the PS3 will be fine in the long run. Even the hardcore HD fans have to think there are going to be many of those owners buying and using there PS3 as a blu ray player. It is going to help Blu Ray sales. Its hard to get the full effect one month in as many of the players are wrapped up for christmas gifts and many are still circulating through ebay.

Yup. That's a lot of PS2 SW that can be brought over to the PS3 too. PS2 is still outselling Xb360.

http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=14685

b2b

xbox360 as hardware numbers arent a good indicator. i never understand why people use a number of consoles sold as indicator.

fact is on the xbox360 it is possible to play copied games. this is a fact. and lot of people specially in europe buy xbox360 to play copied games. those games wont make any revenue for the studios. same as in china. were 400.000 people bought a xbox360.

so imfportant is to know the number of xbox360 sold, that people use for their orginal games.

if out of those 8 million units sold. only 4 million actually use it to play orginal games. then revenue is much lower. ofcourse this is just an estimation and could be completely wrong. but you have to take that in account when you start using numbers for how many units sold.

same for nintendo DS, Ps2, xbox etc. but PS3 aint hacked yet, you cant play copied games on it.

so revenue wise bluray has sold more then hd-dvds. simply because games are also on bluray. and that is where the bluray effect come kickin in.

people are butchering sony so much for including the bluray drive in the PS3. why? do you want to be stuck in the past or you want to go into the future? i love the bluray drive in my ps3. and i am very happy that i have 1 unit that i can play next generation games on it and watch next generation movies.

i find the hd-dvd addon on the xbox360 and including 1080p on the xbox360 firmware update an indication that sony was right. why would microsoft otherwise do the firmware update and sell the xbox 360 add-on?

microsoft screams murder and death for sony to include such an expesive NExt generation drive in it. if so then why is the xbox360 stuck with a dvd drive from the past, while they release the hd-dvd addon. i would have glady paid 600 bucks as well for a xbox360 with hd-dvd drive inside from the beginning and you wouldnt have me heard complaining at all.

dont get me wrong i like it that i am able to play hd-dvds on my xbox360, but i have to give this to sony. they were right. including the bluray drive was essential. if not so. then microsoft should not had released the xbox360 hd-dvd addon at all.

One thing I can point out is, current most biggest blue LD supplier in the world is Sony. Not Nichia, nor Sharp. Sanyo? Toshiba? Forget about them.


Talking about discs? Maybe not, since the latter one mentioned "disc". If the former one indicated hardware, then what is your base saying so? What I saw innards of players from both camps, I found Toshiba's (both A1 and A2) looked much expensive to manufacture than BD players. Look, how many "chips" on the mainboard, how big the mainboard is, and so on...