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Format Battle General Discussion Thread: Discuss it here! - Page 206  

post #6151 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Also, I'm going to ASSume that when you use the word "you," you were not referring to me.

You're exactly right. I have a bad habit of replying to a post, and then using the word "you" in place of the word "one". I definetly meant a royal "you." I've got in trouble for that in the past, and probably will again in the future. My apologies.
post #6152 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by nilsp View Post

But again, isn't the real story here the actual movies you can buy? Content is king? I know certain HD DVD people don't like talking about it, I have no idea why...

I'll talk about content if you want.

The last time I checked, HD DVD has more overall available content than BD. If you limit the search to only those released in the U.S., then HD DVD can't get the BD titles from the EU, as well as many foreign releases. In that case, it is almost equal, HD DVD has 181 releases while BD has 193 releases. So BD has about 6% more titles released in the U.S.

Of the 181 released titles on HD DVD, 109 of them aren't currently available on BD. Of the 193 titles released on BD, 121 aren't available on HD DVD. If you switch from movies that are released, to movies that are announced, the amount of unique content grows to 133 for HD DVD and 155 for Blu-ray. If one were to look at international numbers, I suspect the number of unique HD DVD titles would grow, due to having more foreign films, and the number of BD unique titles would be less, because Studio Canal et. al. has a lot more BD content for HD DVD players than the other way around. But that is just a suspicion.


I think many BD supporters are counting their chickens before they're hatched, with regards to content. They act as though there is a big difference in available content, when in fact it is a fairly modest difference. Worldwide, HD DVD actual has the lead, and given there is no region coding, that is relevant. So while you say HD DVD supporters dont' want to talk about content, I can only reply that maybe BD supporters go too far in talking about it.
post #6153 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDouglas View Post

Does anyone have good first-hand knowledge on the cost of these promotions to the companies that make them possible?

I have no inside knowledge of this industry, but modern database and data-collecting techniques are used to closely monitor the success of promotions like these. Massive amounts of detailed sales data are collected today. The data is worth a lot of $$$ and companies sell this data so that market analysis companies can tell manufacturers how successful particular promotions were.
post #6154 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

Given that you stated (with relevant part highlighted):it seems that the principals of "sunk costs" are beyond you, or you are purposely spinning. Those who purchased the PS3 because it was a game system they wanted with no concern for the movie playback part and then saw the current sale on the BDs at Amazon could choose to get into watching BDs for just the additional prices of the discs. Those with a Netflix account could just start getting BDs instead of DVDs.
Maybe I'm not following what you are saying, because your reasoning would seem to imply that more PS3 owners will choose to use the BD playback than XBOX360 owners will go out and buy the add-on.
The thing I was most surprised about was that the PS3 was listed as selling more game software for the week than the Wii did, just based on that one game.
--Darin

Nope, sunk costs are sunk costs. Do you include your display and audio system costs when you buy a HD or BD player? No - unless you have to upgrade them at the same time. There are 10,000,000 existing xbox 360 owners out there that have the choice and need to spend only $200 to get going. Every PS3 owner has to spend $xxx for the game machine and non-optional, added-on BD transport, whether or not they use it for BD movies. (Don't anyone tell me the BD drive is essential for PS3 games - I don't buy it - oh I can hear it now: but all PS3 games are on BD) Now about the $xxx, what, 10% of buyers are going to buy it bare bones, for movies only?

I think more PS3 than Xbox owners will use their machines for movies, but that's a different subject.
post #6155 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by nilsp View Post

Why are they doing it? Price is dropping AND pack-ins are increasing. Surely, they wouldn't do that if their players are flying off the shelves?

You've nailed it, but don't be so foolish as to not realize (or admit) that Sony has the same problem and is reacting the same way. They are scrambling to drop prices on items they already sell at a sizable loss. Something they would never be doing at this juncture if sales were brisk.

There is a close to 2-1 sales disparity in software sales and Sony has a bigger installed base. Yet they are fighting hard against the fact that they are nowhere near mass adoption or their promised sales projections. I would say the Amazon sale is a cheap way for them to boast a 3-1 disparity, so that claims of "victory" will seem to be more legit, but I'll bet ya they never mention cutting software prices in the same breath with increased sales.

Anybody that thinks any "deals" passed on to consumer in either format aren't being done at the end of a bayonet, are looking too close at the horse-race and not close enough at the overall stagnant sales of HD.
post #6156 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

I'll talk about content if you want.

Cool!
Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

The last time I checked, HD DVD has more overall available content than BD. If you limit the search to only those released in the U.S., then HD DVD can't get the BD titles from the EU, as well as many foreign releases. In that case, it is almost equal, HD DVD has 181 releases while BD has 193 releases. So BD has about 6% more titles released in the U.S.

I didn't quite get what you were saying at first there, but yep, there are more available titles on Blu-ray than HD DVD. EU is a non-issue in the J6P world... If you look at what is announced and can be pre-ordered, the gap is widening.

Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

Of the 181 released titles on HD DVD, 109 of them aren't currently available on BD. Of the 193 titles released on BD, 121 aren't available on HD DVD. If you switch from movies that are released, to movies that are announced, the amount of unique content grows to 133 for HD DVD and 155 for Blu-ray. If one were to look at international numbers, I suspect the number of unique HD DVD titles would grow, due to having more foreign films, and the number of BD unique titles would be less, because Studio Canal et. al. has a lot more BD content for HD DVD players than the other way around. But that is just a suspicion.

Again, EU is a non issue in the US, will never have ANY impact on any numbers in the US... (IMHO)


Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

I think many BD supporters are counting their chickens before they're hatched, with regards to content. They act as though there is a big difference in available content, when in fact it is a fairly modest difference. Worldwide, HD DVD actual has the lead, and given there is no region coding, that is relevant. So while you say HD DVD supporters dont' want to talk about content, I can only reply that maybe BD supporters go too far in talking about it.

I don't think so. You can't just look at the numbers. You have to look at which titles are on each list. Do you think Dragon Heart or The Big Lebowski has much pull vs. Pirates of the Caribbean and Cars? Can you honestly say that you believe Universals and Weinsteins exclusives will be able to outweigh Sony, Disney and Fox?

Granted, the difference in numbers might not be that big today, but with more studios on the Blu-ray side that difference will increase in the coming months. Universal are burning their exclusives faster than Sony, Disney and Fox. A quick glance at blockbuster numbers for the last few years confirms this. So no, I don't think I go too far when talking about it, and I'll keep talking about it... In fact, insinuating that Blu-ray and HD DVD really are close when it comes to current and upcoming content is spin, plain and simple. (IMHO. YMMV.)
post #6157 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by nilsp View Post

... HD DVD will most likely always have the lower price edge, you're right. Which is one of the reason for the lack of CE support from major manufacturers. Shinco may sound good in your ears, I does not in mine.

A lower price point would mean selling more players. Toshiba is 'major' CE support, is it not? I have no idea what Shinco is, but if it produces a great picture for a cheap price, it'll probably sell well to the masses.

Quote:


But again, isn't the real story here the actual movies you can buy? Content is king? I know certain HD DVD people don't like talking about it, I have no idea why...

You must mean future content, since as pointed out before, the difference in total discs for each camp is relatively close. And more specifically, potential future content. At this point, it looks like more studio support for Blu-ray would mean more future content, but the future is always changing. It may take many years before the content differential is substantial. There will always be people from both camps that prefer the movies from their camp over the other. And people buying cheap players will probably be of the mindset that content will eventually come to their format at some point in the future, and that there is plenty to watch until then. I can't see studios withholding content from the other format indefinitely, especially if there is a large amount of players out there (works both ways).
post #6158 of 6336
I am HD DVD owner and will quite happily talk about content. Theres plenty to keep me going for the next couple of months. When it comes to the quantity of titles Blu Ray will probably win out. As for quality, for me personally there are about 3x more titles on HD DVD I would rather own. If content is king then Blu Ray is sadly lacking at the moment in my opinion.
And if Universal burn their exclusives quickly, fine. I will just have loads of great Universal titles to watch until Blu Ray comes down in price and they release better titles
post #6159 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk View Post

You've nailed it, but don't be so foolish as to not realize (or admit) that Sony has the same problem and is reacting the same way. They are scrambling to drop prices on items they already sell at a sizable loss. Something they would never be doing at this juncture if sales were brisk.

Which items are they selling at a sizeable loss? Surely you can't be talking about the PS3, because if they were selling hte PS3 at the numbers they were hoping for, their losses would have been even bigger. So to scramble to cover your loss, when your loss is much lower than it would have been had you sold according to internal budgets, doesn't seem to make sense. They are cutting cost like any other console manufacturer will do once their product hit the market. No drama. (Well, some drama, Stringer vs. Kutaragi for sure...)

If you're talking about introducing the 300, again it is the natural product cycle. High end model is released, new model comes out later at lower cost. Now, the current 1000 probably is selling MUCH less than Sony had hoped for. And the primary reason for that is Toshiba's rabbit called $499 surprise. Sony assumed (arrogantly and wrongly) a walk in the park, Toshiba saw the writing on the wall and acted accordingly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk View Post

There is a close to 2-1 sales disparity in software sales and Sony has a bigger installed base. Yet they are fighting hard against the fact that they are nowhere near mass adoption or their promised sales projections. I would say the Amazon sale is a cheap way for them to boast a 3-1 disparity, so that claims of "victory" will seem to be more legit, but I'll bet ya they never mention cutting software prices in the same breath with increased sales.

Nah... It is a sale, just a blip. (Is there an echo in here? ) They might claim it on the next Nielsen numbers for march (as we know the sale ends at the end of march), and I wouldn't be surprised if it has all been planned that way. But numbers will go back to more normal soon. But then some really BIG titles will hit on Blu-ray, with less big titles on HD DVD. And, I am inclined to say (with good games finally hitting the PS3) more PS3s are going to leave the now fully stocked shelves, than Toshibas and add-ons. Net net, 2-1 will go way up in march, then down in april, but not down to 2-1. My opinion, of course.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk View Post

Anybody that thinks any "deals" passed on to consumer in either format aren't being done at the end of a bayonet, are looking too close at the horse-race and not close enough at the overall stagnant sales of HD.

Agreed. Overall, studios and CE's were expecting people to come in droves, and they're not. Much of the blame they have themselves, but for a LOT of people, DVD works just fine.
post #6160 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by Baronken View Post

And more specifically, potential future content.

Potential? In what way? You're saying dual-studios will release more HD DVD content, Universal will go into overdrive, and Sony, Disney and Fox will not release any more titles?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Baronken View Post

At this point, it looks like more studio support for Blu-ray would mean more future content, but the future is always changing. It may take many years before the content differential is substantial.

No, it will not. The BDA are fully aware of what is at stake here, and will not let up their efforts as far as this "war" is concerned. I'm sorry to be so categoric, but these people are not dummies (although a few of them got a left hook or two last fall). We're just starting to see content. Everybody knows "fall is it", wait and see.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Baronken View Post

There will always be people from both camps that prefer the movies from their camp over the other. And people buying cheap players will probably be of the mindset that content will eventually come to their format at some point in the future, and that there is plenty to watch until then. I can't see studios withholding content from the other format indefinitely, especially if there is a large amount of players out there (works both ways).

True. But what happens if Universal announces support this fall for Blu-ray? And Disney, Fox and Sony sticks to Blu-ray? Will people still buy HD DVD players thinking "they'll cave eventually"? Will there be a big market for universal players then? Somehow, I doubt it.

(I've said before that I believe Universal will cave this fall. I'm quite sure there are some deals with Microsoft on this very topic, but I think there are some dates and conditions set that might not be met, or have been met. Universal gets money on every Zune sold. Has the Zune sold according to estimates? Is Universal getting the amount of mnoey they were "promised"? New leadership at Universal. HD DVD disappearing from the web site. I think there is a whole thread in this topic...)
post #6161 of 6336
Well if HD-DVD has plenty of content, we don't need universal players right?

And we can expect the whining about Disney and Fox not going neutral or how Disney and Fox let the console market dictate their decisions to stop?

post #6162 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by nilsp View Post

Potential? In what way? You're saying dual-studios will release more HD DVD content, Universal will go into overdrive, and Sony, Disney and Fox will not release any more titles?

I'm not saying anything of the sort. I say potential, as in it may come to pass. Last year we had these same studios supporting these same formats and BD wasn't producing as many titles as HD DVD, but now BD is producing more. Who knows what the future holds?

Quote:
No, it will not. The BDA are fully aware of what is at stake here, and will not let up their efforts as far as this "war" is concerned. I'm sorry to be so categoric, but these people are not dummies (although a few of them got a left hook or two last fall). We're just starting to see content. Everybody knows "fall is it", wait and see.

I asked, who knows what the future holds? Apparently you think you do. Like you say though, wait and see.

Quote:
True. But what happens if Universal announces support this fall for Blu-ray? And Disney, Fox and Sony sticks to Blu-ray? Will people still buy HD DVD players thinking "they'll cave eventually"? Will there be a big market for universal players then? Somehow, I doubt it.

If Universal goes neutral or BD exclusive, yes that would significantly hurt probably kill HD DVD, even with cheap players. Let's hope that doesn't happen though, since cheap players are what's going to get the masses into HD (high def). The niche that HD is now may remain that way if J6P won't buy into expensive Blu-ray. With competition, those expensive Blu-ray players will drop in price a lot faster.

Quote:
(I've said before that I believe Universal will cave this fall. I'm quite sure there are some deals with Microsoft on this very topic, but I think there are some dates and conditions set that might not be met, or have been met. Universal gets money on every Zune sold. Has the Zune sold according to estimates? Is Universal getting the amount of mnoey they were "promised"? New leadership at Universal. HD DVD disappearing from the web site. I think there is a whole thread in this topic...)

Yes, and others have said before that Fox, Disney, etc. will cave this fall. Though cave wouldn't be the proper term, IMO. Join (and get more revenue, etc.) sounds better to me
post #6163 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by nilsp View Post

In fact, insinuating that Blu-ray and HD DVD really are close when it comes to current and upcoming content is spin, plain and simple. (IMHO. YMMV.)


How can you say "insinuating that Blu-ray and HD DVD really are close when it comes to current... content is spin"?

Current releases in content are very close, less than 6% different! And there are certainly some big titles that are currently only available on HD DVD.
Not to mention, HD DVD actually has more content available to it, world wide.

If you think there is a large content gap currently, then we are so far apart on this, I don't there's anyway to bridge it. 50% is large. 6% is hardly noticable.

I think that the BD content advantage has been talked about so much around here that people have began to lose all sense of proportion. They can't bring themselves to use any description that isn't excessive. In this case, you refuse to acknowledge that it is about equal in content right now, even though that is plainly the case.

Bd may get more content in the future. But that is not today, and even then we don't know what the studios are going to do for sure. HD DVD may pick a studio as well.
post #6164 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by wco81 View Post

Well if HD-DVD has plenty of content, we don't need universal players right?

And we can expect the whining about Disney and Fox not going neutral or how Disney and Fox let the console market dictate their decisions to stop?


If you guys will stop whinning about Universal being HD DVD only, maybe we can get a deal on the last part. But as to the first part, I've never really liked the idea of universal players, but I do accept that they are the likely reality of the future.
post #6165 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by wco81 View Post

Well if HD-DVD has plenty of content, we don't need universal players right?

*boggle* Considering there is content ('plenty') on both sides, you still need some way of watching the other format too.

Quote:
And we can expect the whining about Disney and Fox not going neutral or how Disney and Fox let the console market dictate their decisions to stop?


Doubtful.
I will continue to complain about Disney until they go neutral or affordable Blu-ray (or universal) players are available (<$200).
post #6166 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by nilsp View Post

(I've said before that I believe Universal will cave this fall.


Yes, but you also voted that HD DVD was dead in the water back in October of 2005. So your posting history reveals that your HD DVD predictions have been as pessimistic as they've been inaccurate for few years now.
post #6167 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by wco81 View Post

Well if HD-DVD has plenty of content, we don't need universal players right?

If you see the unqueness charts - you will notice that about 60% of content is unique to both formats.
post #6168 of 6336
Hi,

Within two years Kmart will have cmbi players at less that $200.

Within four years we will be downloading all our Media for either immediate viewing at one price and full ownership at another with the provider keeping it safe on his server.

If either camp had released a 7.1 lossless layer on every logical film from the getgo they would have blown the competion out of the water.

It wouldn't surprise me if 90% of those contributing to this thread already have processors with the DACs and analog inputs that already support at least 96/24 and probably 192/24

I've had one since 2001

Peter M.
post #6169 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by WayneL View Post

Nope, sunk costs are sunk costs.

Yep. If a person bought a PS3 in December for games, then what they spent is sunk cost. Now if they see a sale on movies they can buy them without spending any more. Are you having trouble with that, as you seem to want to apply "sunk costs" in one way to one side and another way to another side.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WayneL View Post

Every PS3 owner has to spend $xxx ...

It is not accurate to say "has to spend" for somebody who is already a PS3 owner. And what is your claim for xxx, given that it was previously $800-$1000 to enjoy BD, even for existing PS3 owners?

Is there a reason that you are using words like "will cost" for existing owners and then claiming that others are the ones who don't understand sunk costs?

--Darin
post #6170 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by nilsp View Post

Potential? In what way? You're saying dual-studios will release more HD DVD content, Universal will go into overdrive, and Sony, Disney and Fox will not release any more titles?

I don't have to say anything. dual-studios have released more content on HD DVD than BD. A fair number of Warner titles are HD DVD only: Batman Begins, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Constantine, Dukes of Hazzard, Terminator 3, Troy, V for Vendetta, as well as Smallville Season 5.

Sure, at some point, Warner has said they'd like to achieve parity, but it's not going to happen soon, and in that time we'll be seeing other movies that won't be out on BD until later, including, I believe, some titles that would have no problems competing with "Cars" and "Pirates of Johnny Depp's Eyeshadow"
post #6171 of 6336
You don't think Warner will have those titles out on BD before... say, Xmas 07?
post #6172 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by Baronken View Post

Yes, and others have said before that Fox, Disney, etc. will cave this fall. Though cave wouldn't be the proper term, IMO. Join (and get more revenue, etc.) sounds better to me

Sure. Let's try to enjoy our respective HD collections and not worry what might and might not happen months from now. It is all speculation anyway. But hey, speculation is fun.
post #6173 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

Yes, but you also voted that HD DVD was dead in the water back in October of 2005. So your posting history reveals that your HD DVD predictions have been as pessimistic as they've been inaccurate for few years now.

Wohoo! A year and a half ago. Thanks for looking that up, my friend! Trying to discredit me, skogan, smear campagin, what is going on? I didn't even remember that one. But guess what, I stand by it. In the big picture, that is. I've never claimed to be an oracle, and I always try to add IMHO etc. I speculate in favor of Blu-ray, and I just find it interesting how much that annoys some members. I still see it going in favor of Blu-ray, so my stance has not changed.
post #6174 of 6336
So you weren't wrong, you were just early - is that it?
post #6175 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

How can you say "insinuating that Blu-ray and HD DVD really are close when it comes to current... content is spin"?

Current releases in content are very close, less than 6% different! And there are certainly some big titles that are currently only available on HD DVD.
Not to mention, HD DVD actually has more content available to it, world wide.

If you think there is a large content gap currently, then we are so far apart on this, I don't there's anyway to bridge it. 50% is large. 6% is hardly noticable.

I think that the BD content advantage has been talked about so much around here that people have began to lose all sense of proportion. They can't bring themselves to use any description that isn't excessive. In this case, you refuse to acknowledge that it is about equal in content right now, even though that is plainly the case.

Bd may get more content in the future. But that is not today, and even then we don't know what the studios are going to do for sure. HD DVD may pick a studio as well.

But, skogan, I DON'T. You conveniently leave out the "and future" part of my statement. Now and future, put together equals big difference. I AGREE that now the difference isn't big. I would not take the world wide view. VERY few US consumers will be importing EU titles.

Let's have this discussion again just before Christmas. If we're still at only 6% advantage, I'll send you a cookie. (But then we'll also talk which titles are out, not just numbers.)
post #6176 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

So you weren't wrong, you were just early - is that it?

post #6177 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by nilsp View Post

But, skogan, I DON'T. You conveniently leave out the "and future" part of my statement. Now and future, put together equals big difference. I AGREE that now the difference isn't big. I would not take the world wide view. VERY few US consumers will be importing EU titles.

Let's have this discussion again just before Christmas. If we're still at only 6% advantage, I'll send you a cookie. (But then we'll also talk which titles are out, not just numbers.)


Fair enough.

I'll bookmark this post and title it "Do not open until Christmas". Then i'll look at again in December, and if HD DVD has closed the content gap any, I'll PM you with an address you can send my cookie.

If HD DVD hasn't closed the gap, or worse, if it's defunct, I'll simply go back and erase this post, and pretend it never happned
post #6178 of 6336
Excellent. (Oh, in addition to number of titles, we'll discuss number of discs sold of each, if we can find reliable statistics.)
post #6179 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

Yep. If a person bought a PS3 in December for games, then what they spent is sunk cost. Now if they see a sale on movies they can buy them without spending any more. Are you having trouble with that, as you seem to want to apply "sunk costs" in one way to one side and another way to another side.
It is not accurate to say "has to spend" for somebody who is already a PS3 owner. And what is your claim for xxx, given that it was previously $800-$1000 to enjoy BD, even for existing PS3 owners?

Is there a reason that you are using words like "will cost" for existing owners and then claiming that others are the ones who don't understand sunk costs?

--Darin

Don't understand. As I've said before, when a new purchasing decision comes up, one doesn't count all the previous purchases, i.e. they are "sunk", which is what you are saying. To buy a BD player in the form of the PS3 (whether you buy it for games or not) you pay the full purchase price, which in many cases include bundle costs. But there are 10,000,000 "sunk costers" who can get into HD for less than $200.
post #6180 of 6336
Quote:
Originally Posted by WayneL View Post

Don't understand. As I've said before, when a new purchasing decision comes up, one doesn't count all the previous purchases, i.e. they are "sunk", which is what you are saying. To buy a BD player in the form of the PS3 (whether you buy it for games or not) you pay the full purchase price, which in many cases include bundle costs. But there are 10,000,000 "sunk costers" who can get into HD for less than $200.

Yes, but if that person already bought the PS3 for gaming alone, then when they decide they want to use it as a movie player, it can be considered a sunk cost. Granted, that is far too expensive for a game machine though, LOL
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