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Sales of PS3 by end of 2010 will reach:

post #1 of 92
Thread Starter 
I am of the opinion that (prepare your jokes) the PS3 will outsell the PS2 over its lifetime, in terms of respective sales in the Developed World.

So, I am polling to see what your prediction is about PS3 Worldwide Sales for the relatively near time-horizon of 2010.


P.S. Hope the same group of posters is around on AVS then and AVS itself still exists, of course.

P.P.S Sorry about the huge font above on Worldwide, but ppl seem to be voting for NA market.
post #2 of 92
Thread Starter 
Here's food for thought:


IDG predicts 23.9M 360s and 23.5M PS3s in NA by end of 2010. The Wii is predicted to gamely soldier on at 13.6M.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...=4047&Itemid=2


--
post #3 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by What'sHD View Post

Here's food for thought:IDG predicts 23.9M 360s and 23.5M PS3s by end of 2010.

Well if that is true then that is horrible news for Sony.
4 years after the launch of the PS2 sales # were about 72 million PS2 and 16 million Xbox. That gave Sony a market share of 82%. If those # are right then in 2010 Sony will have less than a 50% market share, about 1/3 as many consoles, and a dismal 20 million in sales Both the original Xbox and Gamecube sold 20+ million and they are hardly considered run away successes. Combined with the huge R&D costs and currently losses per console (up to $400 per unit) Sony needs to post some massive numbers to make the PS3 profitable.

Likely around 2010 Microsoft will be releasing the next console which will be far more powerful and capable of True HD gaming. Doesn't look so good for Sony.
post #4 of 92
Well remember the ps2 launched against the dreamcast . Sega at the time was bankrupt and actually canceled the dreamcast before the ps2 launched.

if sega could have kept going the market would have been a much diffrent place as the dreamcast could have been sold at 100$ vs the 300$ of the ps2 and could have prevented sony from gaining the momentum with both gamers and developers that they did . Giving the cube and xbox a better chance.


This time its ms that launched first and has momentum . You can see this buy the amount of games coming out for the system . 2007 when the ps3 is easily avalible it will go up against a 360 most likely price dropped with halo 3 , mass effect , froza 2 , pgr4 , bioshock , too human , crack down and perhaps fable 2 . Not to mention titles from 2005 that will be at 20ish a pop and 2006 titles like GOW , Graw and deadrising that will have seen price drops .

The wii also has a big push behind it . In japan where ms is basicly non existant the wii is outselling the ps3 by leaps and bounds and if it takes off like the ds did then sony will loose alot of key support. What will happen is japanese developers will publish for the wii first and foremost and then the 360 as the 360 will most likely hold the ww lead through 2007/2008 .

Then of course I predict sony will catch up in 2009/2010 but i believe by then we will be hearing of the xbox 3 with a launch possibly in 2010/2011
post #5 of 92
I predict that in 2010, we will still be arguing about which format is superior.
post #6 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff Lampert View Post

I predict that in 2010, we will still be arguing about which format is superior.

2010? How about 3010.

Agreed though.
post #7 of 92
As much of a Sony critic I am, I guess I bucked the trend, in that I am the only one who voted that Sony will sell 35-50M by 2010. Here's the reason why:

1. Sony is getting its asswhooped right now, and through 2007 due to its high price and lack of must have titles. 2007 will be the same for the most part, but towards the holiday season, the big guns like MGS4 and Killzone-2 will redeem the console. They will have more AAA titles to look forward to from 2007 Fall.

2. Sony will have no choice but to drop the price of the PS3 in Fall 2007, and it will pull in more gamers.

3. Blu-Ray will have more AAA movies releasing by Fall 2007 - and Fox will still be in BR camp (Disney might jump ship before then) and they have had bigger hits lately than Universal.

4. Given the above, PS3 WILL strongly surge in sales due to becoming more affordable to its loyal fans and franchises like Jak and Daxter, Ratchet and Clank, MGS, DMC, Team Ico projects and Gran Turismo will bring the masses back post Fall 2007.

5. Unless Microsoft snatches some of those franchises for multiconsole releases, they will have tough fight on their hands to come up with equivalent franchises on the Xbox360. So, there is only so much market for FPS, TPS and driving games on a console. RPGs have traditionally been bigger on the PlayStation platforms, and 2007-2010 will see a parity in this respect with western RPGs gaining a following to rival the JRPGs.

So, in summation, Sony could still be on target for 35-50M by 2010 - but the key milestones are: price drop in Fall 2007, and DON'T LOSE ANY EXCLUSIVE FRANCHISES TO XBOX360.
post #8 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by raaj View Post

As much of a Sony critic I am, I guess I bucked the trend, in that I am the only one who voted that Sony will sell 35-50M by 2010. Here's the reason why:

1. Sony is getting its asswhooped right now, and through 2007 due to its high price and lack of must have titles. 2007 will be the same for the most part, but towards the holiday season, the big guns like MGS4 and Killzone-2 will redeem the console. They will have more AAA titles to look forward to from 2007 Fall.

2. Sony will have no choice but to drop the price of the PS3 in Fall 2007, and it will pull in more gamers.

3. Blu-Ray will have more AAA movies releasing by Fall 2007 - and Fox will still be in BR camp (Disney might jump ship before then) and they have had bigger hits lately than Universal.

4. Given the above, PS3 WILL strongly surge in sales due to becoming more affordable to its loyal fans and franchises like Jak and Daxter, Ratchet and Clank, MGS, DMC, Team Ico projects and Gran Turismo will bring the masses back post Fall 2007.

5. Unless Microsoft snatches some of those franchises for multiconsole releases, they will have tough fight on their hands to come up with equivalent franchises on the Xbox360. So, there is only so much market for FPS, TPS and driving games on a console. RPGs have traditionally been bigger on the PlayStation platforms, and 2007-2010 will see a parity in this respect with western RPGs gaining a following to rival the JRPGs.

So, in summation, Sony could still be on target for 35-50M by 2010 - but the key milestones are: price drop in Fall 2007, and DON'T LOSE ANY EXCLUSIVE FRANCHISES TO XBOX360.


1) the problem is Sony doesnt have alot of exclusive titles. MSG4 will be released on Xbox 360 as well and remember, GTA4 will be released but it will be released first on XBOX 360..

2) Sony announced no matter what, it will not drop the price until 2008.

3) True

4) See number 1 again

5) Halo and Gears of War 2 coming in the fall, MS should have no problem. But like i said, see answer 1 again
post #9 of 92
1) I don't really see this . The only big title they have for fall 2007 is MGS4 which may be delayed till 2008 . They have dmc4 coming out this juneish and the new and unproven heavenly sword. However ms has the list I posted for 2007 which off the top of my head is lost planet , mass effect , froza 2 , fable 2 , pgr4 and don't forget Halo 3 . 2007 will be the year of the xbox 360 as we will most likely see Halo 3 + its first price drop

2)Only if production improves. If they still have problems supplying enough units (And they will be adding more countrys to support over the year) dropping the price wont do much good. then there is the possiblity that they are loosing upwards of 200$ per unit . Can they really drop the price ? Will the price drop to say 400/500 help when the 360 will most likely be 300/400$ ?

3) I think bluray is a non factor in this . The casual gamer that sony needs to hit to sell so many units wont really care and will be using the ps3 / xbox / wii as a gaming console and to top it off 100% of the biggest movies will be out on dvd . Not many will jump ship for awhile .

4)Well for each of those exclusives ms and nintendo have something to counter . In some cases ms may be on their second version of some of thier exlcusives when those titles come out. Not to mention that may of those may not apear till post 2008 and some other big titles can jump ship. What would happen if square releases the ffs on both ps3 and xbox 360 ? What happens if they move dragon warrior / quest over to the wii ? That will take alot of the wind out of sonys sales

5) that may have been the xbox , but the 360 is a diffrent beast . It already has oblivion and enchanted arms . In japan blue dragon came out . In the next year we will see 3 more jrps come out (trusted bell , lost odessy and something else i'm forgetting) along with mass effect (bio ware makers of kotor) and most likely fable 2 . This is far greater than sony's rpg line up till at least 2008

Dmc4 is using the same engine that dead rising and lost planet are using and thus we might see it make its way to the 360 as capcom is very happy with Dead rising's sales and Lost planet looks to be the best game coming out in january / febuary .

Sony is facing an uphill battle and I think for the consumer its best that nintendo or ms takes the reins for a generation or two. The 360 shows everythign that is currently right with ms . innovation , great performance to price ration , great new ips and solid old ones . The wii shows whats great with nintendo . A solid new control scheme and solid old franchises . however the ps3 shows what happens when your the market leader for 2 generations. Once of which was basicly uncontested. Its over priced , over promised and under devlivered . When the industry balances out it will be a good thing . It was great when sega shook up nintendo , when sony shook up nintendo and sega and it will be great when ms and nintendo shake up sony . Hopefully sony gets the message though and doesn't take as long to fix its problems as nintendo did
post #10 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by RAVEN56706 View Post

1) the problem is Sony doesnt have alot of exclusive titles. MSG4 will be released on Xbox 360 as well and remember, GTA4 will be released but it will be released first on XBOX 360..

2) Sony announced no matter what, it will not drop the price until 2008.

3) True

4) See number 1 again

5) Halo and Gears of War 2 coming in the fall, MS should have no problem. But like i said, see answer 1 again

1. I believe MGS4 is exclusive to PS3 for now, but have heard speculation that MGS4 might go multiconsole, but haven't seen any annoucements so far. If you know of an announcement, please point me to it, as I have missed it. I expect such an announcement would be made at E3, and there was none at E3 '06 - might be at E3 '07 or TGS '07. GTA4 was of course confirmed last year, but I think that franchise has been played out long enough already. It's a non-starter, at best.

2. They might have announced that before launch, but things have changed since launch, and they have been outsold by the Wii this fall. If they don't have a price drop by Fall 2007, they are in trouble.

3. True, too.

4. See me number 1, mate.

5. Halo 3 is coming in Fall 2007, no doubts. Gears of War 2 WILL NOT come out till Spring or Fall 2008. Think about it. Why would Microsoft canibalize Halo-3's sales by releasing another top franchise head to head and compromize the sales of both titles? If I were making the policy decisions at MGS, I would NOT release GoW-2 before Spring '08 at the earliest.
post #11 of 92
well once again

1) GTA was never big with me . However it still has a big following and the 3 releases are amongst the top 5 franchises on the ps2. Its up there with FF series and some of the others . MS used to get them months later up to a year later. Now its the same day adn the 360 will be much cheaper than the ps3 and will most likely have halo 3 a month after gta 4. Its going to be tough for a casual not to grab the 360 next holiday

2)Like i said . if they are loosing 200$ per unit as some are saying and pricing doesn't drop by large margins how will they drop the price of the unit ? 65nm is coming and when in 2007 it happens i don't know . But it seems that the most expensive parts are bluray and the ram . So when can we see that drop in price ? If the ps3 now costs 800 . If in 2007 its able to dorp to 700. they will still be loosing 100/200$ depending on the model and droping the price will knock it up even more . Can they really do this ?

Not to mention that even with a price drop if production issues continue they might be in deep doodoo . They were originaly going to ship 4m units this year. The forcast is now 2m with many saying they will hit only 1m ish world wide. This is a far cry from 4m and if trends continue I doubt they will make 4m by march which will still be way under the goal of 6m . How much longer does that last for ? Can they make 10m units and sell 10m units by holiday 2007 ? Ms by all acounts will be at 10m through this holiday and will have shipped another 13-15m by this june. Its not impossible for them to hit 20m by next holiday. Perhaps if the list of games i mentioned in another post hits consumers right they could see 25m units . Sony could actually be even further behind than when they weren't in the market . Every price reduction sony is going to see in 2007 in terms of process nodes ms will also see . So ms should be able to match them price drop for price drop if not more as ms has been mass producing these for a year now.

5) Halo 3 , Gta 4 , Project Gotham racing 4 , Froza 2 , Crackdown , Mass effect , Bioshock , Lost planet , Fable 2 . Not to mention anything else that is announced for the holidays at the trade shows this year . Follow that into 2008 which should see Halo wars and gears of war 2 plus whatever.


Like i said sony has an uphill battle.
post #12 of 92
Why do they predict so few sales for PS3? The PS2 sold over 35 million units while the xbox and the 360 sold around 7 to 9. Thats a huge drop if they suddenly think that PS3 will lose 12 million or so customers and 360 will gain them all.
post #13 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by gljvd View Post

well once again

1) GTA was never big with me . However it still has a big following and the 3 releases are amongst the top 5 franchises on the ps2. Its up there with FF series and some of the others . MS used to get them months later up to a year later. Now its the same day adn the 360 will be much cheaper than the ps3 and will most likely have halo 3 a month after gta 4. Its going to be tough for a casual not to grab the 360 next holiday

2)Like i said . if they are loosing 200$ per unit as some are saying and pricing doesn't drop by large margins how will they drop the price of the unit ? 65nm is coming and when in 2007 it happens i don't know . But it seems that the most expensive parts are bluray and the ram . So when can we see that drop in price ? If the ps3 now costs 800 . If in 2007 its able to dorp to 700. they will still be loosing 100/200$ depending on the model and droping the price will knock it up even more . Can they really do this ?

Not to mention that even with a price drop if production issues continue they might be in deep doodoo . They were originaly going to ship 4m units this year. The forcast is now 2m with many saying they will hit only 1m ish world wide. This is a far cry from 4m and if trends continue I doubt they will make 4m by march which will still be way under the goal of 6m . How much longer does that last for ? Can they make 10m units and sell 10m units by holiday 2007 ? Ms by all acounts will be at 10m through this holiday and will have shipped another 13-15m by this june. Its not impossible for them to hit 20m by next holiday. Perhaps if the list of games i mentioned in another post hits consumers right they could see 25m units . Sony could actually be even further behind than when they weren't in the market . Every price reduction sony is going to see in 2007 in terms of process nodes ms will also see . So ms should be able to match them price drop for price drop if not more as ms has been mass producing these for a year now.

5) Halo 3 , Gta 4 , Project Gotham racing 4 , Froza 2 , Crackdown , Mass effect , Bioshock , Lost planet , Fable 2 . Not to mention anything else that is announced for the holidays at the trade shows this year . Follow that into 2008 which should see Halo wars and gears of war 2 plus whatever.


Like i said sony has an uphill battle.

We are not so different [in our points] - you and I.

I concur on all your points. And Sony does have an uphill battle. That is why they will drop from 100M installed base in 6 yrs to about 50M 4 years after launch. I am saying even with these challenges, Sony has enough hardcore followers [just not as many as the PS2 had] to reach 35-50M by end of 2010.
post #14 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by theforce8686 View Post

Why do they predict so few sales for PS3? The PS2 sold over 35 million units while the xbox and the 360 sold around 7 to 9. Thats a huge drop if they suddenly think that PS3 will lose 12 million or so customers and 360 will gain them all.

I think 12 million going from PS2 to Xbox 360 is very reasonable. That would include me and almost all of my friends. I was all about the PS2 but i'll never look twice at the PS3.

To anyone who voted for 50 million+, Sony will have a hard time making that many nevermind selling that many. Remember this is only 3 years from now.

No way they will sell more than 10 million a year.
post #15 of 92
For Sony's sake they better sell a lot by 2010. Microsoft will be releasing X-box 3( or 720 or whatever name they come with) in 2010, while the next PS is not due until 2013. If this battle does not harm Sony the NEXT console war will bury them.
post #16 of 92
hxxp: xxx.npd.xxx press releases press_061113.html (Can't link it cause I'm under 5 posts >.>; Sorry)
Quote:


What Gamers Want
According to the report, males and those under age 35 are the most passionate about the overall features of the next generation systems but Heavy Gamers, those who spend the most time and money on video games, are more likely than all other segments to emphasize the importance of these systems having appealing game titles, backward compatibility, wireless controllers, Wi-Fi capability, and the ability to play online.

The only thing that Sony really has going for it is the PS2 catalog. Online play with the unified friend list and the loss of exclusive titles will continue to pound away at the hard core gamers. Then the release of Halo 3 and Gears of War exclusive to the 360 not to mention the lower entry price and Microsoft's ability to lower the price at any time will keep pressure on the PS3.
post #17 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by raaj View Post

We are not so different [in our points] - you and I.

I concur on all your points. And Sony does have an uphill battle. That is why they will drop from 100M installed base in 6 yrs to about 50M 4 years after launch. I am saying even with these challenges, Sony has enough hardcore followers [just not as many as the PS2 had] to reach 35-50M by end of 2010.


Thats just the thing. I don't believe they have 35-50m hardcore followers. I think there are around 15m or so hardcore sony fans that wont switch (or completely switch) . Far cry from 35-50m . The majority of gamers who bought the ps2 were from one of two camps . a) they bought it cause it was the cool thing to have . b) there was a few games that were must plays in pop culture (ff , gta and what not)

however a) is now the wii and xbox live and b) newer titles will become the cool thing to have. Look at gears of war . Its already past 2m units sold and the fan base is excited about a second one already.
post #18 of 92
Is this poll for NA alone?

The IDG article is talking of NA alone, IIRC.

If it's for worldwide (which is what I thought when I voted), I don't see any trouble getting >50mil -- in NA alone, I'd say 20-30m sounds about right. A lot can happen in 4 years though -- it could be 15 million or it could be 35million. 2008/2009 are really the important years.
post #19 of 92
The PS3 is about 5 times more powerful than the XBox 360. Someone will figure out how to use it.

I don't see the XBox 360 going anywhere. Look at the recent sales. The PS2 is still selling more than the 360. The natural growth path for the PS2 customers is the PS3, which is upward compatible and fits what they are doing.
post #20 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

The PS3 is about 5 times more powerful than the XBox 360. Someone will figure out how to use it.

It's hard to make a direct comparsion for "power" - there are big differences in the whole platform engineering, plus how much effort it takes to get use out of the systems. One could just as easily argue that the 360 is 3x as powerful, since it has three times as many units for running scalar code. And the 360 GPU is also much more flexible and advanced.

Certainly, every indication is, given a fixed amount of engineering resources, a Xbox 360 game is able to deliver more than a PS3 game.

Having a straighforward programming model and a good dev environment matter a ton.
post #21 of 92
Quote:


The PS2 is still selling more than the 360.

Last week in Japan the 360 actually outsold the PS2.
post #22 of 92
Can we all agree that the 'five times' and 'scaler code' PR-talk is just that... PR talk?

Also the '360 GPU' being more advanced is something that needs qualification, because are we concerned with the GPU alone, or the entire graphics subsystem?

I don't think we want this thread to turn into a console spec comparison, but if it does, well...

Quote:
Originally Posted by gooki View Post

Last week in Japan the 360 actually outsold the PS2.

And the PS3 surpassed 360's one-year install base in one week. I don't think Japan is the example you want to use for 360 sales...
post #23 of 92
Since i am the owner of both systems, i have to say that Sony seriously dropped the ball here and it might lead to their downfall.

The problem with this is just by looking at the hd dvd -add on sales...its alot but gamers dont give an f about movies... they care about games....but what did sony do, they put all their money on blu ray and thought that this system would turn the tide....now it isnt...with the ridiculous price tag and not so good start games, it doesnt surprise me that the 360 is doing good..... not to mention, more and more analysts are saying the 360 is a much better machine....

i know i bought the ps3 and xbox 360, it just sucks when the more powerful machine doesnt look as good as the $100 less machine...
post #24 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by RAVEN56706 View Post

1) the problem is Sony doesnt have alot of exclusive titles. MSG4 will be released on Xbox 360 as well and remember, GTA4 will be released but it will be released first on XBOX 360..

2) Sony announced no matter what, it will not drop the price until 2008.

3) True

4) See number 1 again

5) Halo and Gears of War 2 coming in the fall, MS should have no problem. But like i said, see answer 1 again

I guess konami didn't get the memo yet

"Konami: "MGS4 is exclusive to PlayStation 3"Monday 18-Dec-2006
post #25 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by briankmonkey View Post

I guess konami didn't get the memo yet

"Konami: "MGS4 is exclusive to PlayStation 3"Monday 18-Dec-2006


yep found that out too... oh well... still more and more exclusive titles are arriving on the 360 as well...
post #26 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by RAVEN56706 View Post

i know i bought the ps3 and xbox 360, it just sucks when the more powerful machine doesnt look as good as the $100 less machine...

Give it a year. The Cell is outright superior in its ability to provide an improved gameplay experience via animation, physics, and sound. As experience grows, its effect on the graphics themselves will also increase. Heavenly Sword and Motorstorm will be two good 'waypoint' titles to judge progress on the PS3 in the first half-year of its life.
post #27 of 92
Yup, both the PS3 and 360 are scheduled for a quite a bit of exclusives. I'm wondering though if maybe the Wii will have the most due to it being the most different in terms of gameplay mechanics.
post #28 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

Give it a year. The Cell is outright superior in its ability to provide an improved gameplay experience via animation, physics, and sound. As experience grows, its effect on the graphics themselves will also increase. Heavenly Sword and Motorstorm will be two good 'waypoint' titles to judge progress on the PS3 in the first half-year of its life.

Motorstorm is already out in Japan. I have yet to play any demo's or full games on my 360 or other PS3 demo's that come even close in the racing genre. The physics and gameplay is above and beyond, but most importantly it freaking is awesome to play (based off the demo, the final build is even better according to review sites)
post #29 of 92
OK..... LISTEN...

I own both systems, but Im more into the exclusives that the PS3 will give me. There are countless ones, sure you can look at what is out or coming out for the 360 but lets look at the ones for the PS3 too then? Look at the PS2 catalogue and tell me that a vast majority of those exclusive titles there sold in the millions arent coming for the PS3???

The 360 is selling OK, but nothing crazy. Give the PS3 time - it hasnt even been out for 2 months yet!!! How you can reserve future judgement for a system that isnt out yet!? I didnt do that with the 360, when it came out the HORRIBLE launch games, tons of glitches...... I knew that with time things would get better. Same with the PS3, firmware updates, huge exclusive games..... MGS4, Final Fantasy XIII and Final Fantasy XIII VS, Gran Turismo 5, Jak and Daxter, Ratched and Clank, Motorstorm, Black II (working title), Devil May Cry 4, Lair, Tekken, Warhawk, countless Japanese RPGS, The INdianna jones titles, Fatal Intertia, the list goes on.... and more and more will come out, just like the PS2 had titles FLOWING in like crazy after the 1st 8months to 1 year.

I think that if you look at it from outside everything else then there is almost no way that the PS3 can do worse than the 360. I dont want to bash the 360, its a good machine but I see no way that it can outsell the PS3 this "gen".
post #30 of 92
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by fronn View Post

Is this poll for NA alone?

The IDG article is talking of NA alone, IIRC.

If it's for worldwide (which is what I thought when I voted), I don't see any trouble getting >50mil -- in NA alone, I'd say 20-30m sounds about right. A lot can happen in 4 years though -- it could be 15 million or it could be 35million. 2008/2009 are really the important years.

You are right, the IDG is for NA alone (edited in original post)

To all voters: The Poll is for Worldwide sales of PS3.
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