Originally Posted by AV Doogie
INteresting post tsd. Do you have some sort of inside information which indicates more than we know now? You seem to be quite positive about the HDDVD solution.
I know someone at a Studio that is currently exclusive to BD. He is rather high up in the system. He and others are starting to compare the war to SACD/DVD-A where nobody won because consumers:
1. Weren't educated on it, and had no idea what it meant.
2. It was a format war with record labels picking sides, and nobody winning. Consumers didn't want to invest in something not knowing if their favorite music would all make it on the format.
Ofcourse the number 2 situation only happened for those consumers who were able to even know what the two were.
HD-DVD and BD are right now fighting a losing battle. The initial marketing group reports had Studios estimating MUCH larger sales. The reason is simple:CONSUMERS WANT HIGH DEFINITION CONTENT
The consumers are now buying HDTV sets. They need content. HDMI (the one cable solution) is a SMART consumer decision, it is much easier to deal with than Component, etc. Simplifying things into one cable is brilliant.
However consumers are still confused MASSIVELY about 480p, 720p, 1080i, 1080p, etc. Not to mention the new audio codecs!
The Studios know that market reports show that the consumer wants a simple HD solution. They know they want that content. They also know that sales are MUCH LOWER than estimated. This can be blamed on hardware issues, but it's also primarily the fault of the FORMAT WAR.
Attachment rates are incredibly low on the PS3. HD-DVD is winning the software sales war. However recent reports state that the majority of HDTV buyers said they wanted to wait before buying into the HD Content Players. They were either confused or wanted to see "who would win."
Right now there is a winner or loser outlook. This exec I know is thinking this could end up more like LPs and Cassettes if Studios level the playing field. Neutrality is a good thing to promote the sales of either format.
If you make the consumer worry less, they are more likely to buy. The only way that will happen now is:
1. One side wins.
2. Studio Neutrality.
Number 1 can't happen anytime soon, and I believe PS3 sales, and the success of HD-DVD have shown that both will be around for awhile.
That leaves number 2 as the most likely solution to getting the consumer to buy into either format. That is why LGF and Disney will be the first to go neutral and FOX will not be far behind. MGM has to worry about Sony owning 20% and not pissing them off, but they will be making that same decision as well.
Then it will come down to Sony and Universal, and I think when/if that time comes both will make the switch to Neutrality at the same time.
Thus allowing consumers to make the decision they want. For Sony, their brand image should be enough. They've been winning the TV battle for ages...
There is room for two HD Content formats to thrive. It can only happen with studio neutrality. Until then sales for both will remain lower than they potentially could be.
Plus you still have to educate the masses.