Toshiba's big mistake - Page 2

Remember that the "snow job" that the BDA sold to studios and CEs only became apparent since about September of this year.

Studios and CE companies don't move quickly, they move slowly. It will take them at least another six months to really right things.

Additionally, there's no rabid demand for HD content from hard media right now. It's a niche market and might remain a niche market for years, with downloadable content becoming the eventual real successor to the DVD.

Heh! Imagine that a poor wittle format with "no studios" (as some here keep saying) is still outperforming Bluray.

Even if the gap has narrowed more than we would have liked, can you imagine how it'll open up again with a "fair footing" with more studios?

I can...

VOTE

So while we're at the subject. Exactly who at a movie company makes these kinds of decisions anyway? The board, the CEO, , the lawyers, the tech folks?

I am curious of this AACS scare that has rocked the world. I wonder if it may spook the studios considering HD DVD as Blu ray has a second layer of protection (BD+) that the studios control.

CES should be a great story.

You forgot "evil cackle" and "rubbing palms with glee"...

To the other question - I'm actually quite surprised that the VideoScan numbers haven't been released yet, as they were due to start appearing before CES.

The cynical part of me really wonders if Sony has had some folks buying lots of Bluray movies on Amazon, as the sales jumped up at very abrupt points, long after the PS3 actually started shipping.

I would not be surprised if the the Bluray sales numbers start falling again a week or so after CES...

But it won't take long for the Studios to recognize that HD DVD is here to stay - some already have. Particularly smaller studios who haven't picked a side publicly yet...

It's funny how even though both the PS3 and Sony BD player were each more than six months late, it's Toshiba that dropped the ball on their G2 machines when they came out a few weeks later than initially scheduled, but still in the same calender year as their G1 machines.

As far as the sales figures go, I think we are finally starting to see the effect of the PS3 owners who are "trying out" the BD format on their shiny new PS3s.

However, I fully expect it to be the same sort of short lived spike that happened with UMD for the PSP. I don't expect that either console will really have the power to end this format war.

In all likelihood we are heading for a stalemate with most studios neutral by the end of 2007 (with obvious holdouts like Universal and Sony).

Both formats probably remain niche products compared to SD-DVD until eventually (2010) downloads become the successor to optical storage.

Well, in the AVS community, HD DVD is enjoying enormous success and an orgy of sorts in the HD DVD forums that would make the ancient Romans blush. But if peer out at the rest of the world (e.g the big B&Ms - BB, CC, Home Theater stores, etc.) it is all Blu Ray.

It's a good product with zero name recognition and every buyer who wanders into any BB, CC or other B&M (more than a million per day) will be steered toward Blu Ray. Whether they can or cannot afford it is immaterial at this early point. No potential buyer will see any differences in PQ at these stores either, so the myth of improved PQ over BD is of zero impact at BB and other stores though it carries alot of weight here at AVS. However, the name recognition of Blu Ray, the many different manufacturers making players that consumers can can see at these stores and perception of quality will last until they are ready to buy.

Toshiba seems to be O.K. with it.... Are they so heavily subsidizing the players and R&D that they cannot afford a marketing campaign? I see this as their biggest miscalculation and unfortuntely it has little to do with how well the early sales are to the early adopters....

You seem to constantly be pushing your pro-BD agenda, but you're wrong on almost all counts.

HD DVD is selling out of BBY and now CC wants in despite the fact they didn't even sell 1G toshiba HD DVD players. That says something more than any drivel you or I spout off. CC wants in.

BBY can't keep the HD-A2 in stock to keep up with demand. Why advertise when you dominate the market? Its like Nintendo advertising the Wii, it would be a waste. Everyone wants it already, why burn the cash? I like how they use that wasteful marketing cash to help everyone interested get the BEST DAMN PRICE on a next gen player.

P.S. It is better than Blu Ray as it delivers what they say and often more...

Again, the $199.00 player first wins....oh and it must play cd's too...hehe

Saying stuff like this is meaningless unless you can share with us how many HD-A2's were shipped. Do you know or are they just "dominating the market" merely because they are backordered?

I only know data from one major B&M, and it isn't CC or BB so their volume doesn't really matter that much.

I know they are dominating because they have picked up CC, which wants a piece of the tech that is actually selling out. If you don't spend money on marketing and your product sells out continually, you're either not supplying enough to the market (great since they know w/o marketing $) and/or demand is created through other avenues (positive word of mouth).

Both the Wii and the HD-A2 are "dominating" as they have achieved those two avenues without shoving marketing down people's throats (cough*PS3* cough). How many broken, bleeding chess pieces do I have to see before I run out and blow 600 bucks?

So you really don't have any numbers. They are just "dominating" because they are backordered, even when most accounts on here show that each Best Buy only got a handful of units.

So while you're challenging everyone else, where's *your* proof? Hmm?

If I'm not mistaken Toshiba wasn't even going to release gen2 players until well into january 2007 initially.

so how is one month late, but actually 2 months early "dropping the ball?"

I think we will all be surprised at how quickly this model will come to fruition.

While I don't think that we will know how well Microsoft is doing with their download service in the near future, I predict that next Tuesday will usher in the product that will change this for a lot of people sitting on the sidelines.. the Apple iTV box (or whatever it is going to be called...) I know that many here will bemoan the quality of downloadable HD, but I think everyone agrees that most consumers don't care about that.. If the OS, pricing stucture and convenience are right (and Apple has done pretty well in the past with their products) their $299 box should sell like hotcakes...

I know I'll have one next to my BR and HD DVD players so I can finally have a good visual front end for iTunes with running a full fledged Mac (and now I need to free up one more HDMI input on my Anthem.)

I guess im different but I for one will never ever become a movie downloader as long as hard copy formats exist. I know BD and HD are tiny now but when they become the same as DVD some day I will want to play mine on all the different places I can play a DVD now and not be confined or restricted to one downloadable box. What if that box breaks? Or what If you download a virius and it erases everything. I just prefer the confines of my shiny discs.

I'm with ya... but how many iPods has Apple sold? They transformed the music world and might make some strides in this business arena as well.

I know many in the entertainment industry are keeeping on eye on this product..

Quote from Robert Iger, CEO of Disney...

LOL, you are like the Blu Juggernaut, you just can't be stopped.

Let's peer out at the rest of the world... what do we see? Hmmm, we see HD DVD software outselling BluRay by a large margin, even after the launch of the 'savior' PS3. We see stand alone HD DVD players kicking butt on stand alone BluRay players in terms of sales.

Yup, it's all BluRay out there... too bad no one is buying. Guess the orgy goes on beyond the AVS.

Well,

iTV has actually been delayed until late January early February so that Apple can "work out the kinks".

I'm actually rather surprised (and disappointed) that Apple didn't build some kind of DVR functionality into the device.

We also have no idea on the specifications, on what resolutions it will support, how big the hard drive is, etc.

Personally I think that network speeds are going to have to increase dramatically for consumers to enjoy HD downloads on devices like this. It will happen but it is going to take a lot of time, it takes hours (and hours) to download an HD movie on the Xbox 360 and I don't think that the Apple box will be any better (other than offering multiple resolutions, etc). There is a far bigger market in "on demand" viewing services like what Comcast and other cable companies offer. I think the average shmoe could care less about video quality, most people think that DVD is the pinnacle of video quality.

The iTV will have a slick Apple interface though, I'm sure that will sell some units.

I wonder how Universal's promotion of HD DVD on their SD DVDs will help HD DVD? They even push the XBox 360 addon and of course the combos. All in all a pretty impressive promo. It sure isn't going to hurt HD DVD!

Cheers,

Grant

What about the people who don't care for having a game console in their HT? For the average non-game player, that isn't as attractive a BR solution as you seem to think.

In stating "ushered in" I should've specified that we should know about the device on the 7th, with release later...

It will be interesting see what Apple does with this... however, I don't think that quality of the video or resolutions are key selling points to the average consumer... people were ready to ditch their CD's for lossy MP3's for convenience sake... (much to alot of our AVS'ers sadness...)

Ease of use and a strong business model are what will make or break this proudct.... a la carte may be the future of "TV" entertainment... why pay $60+/month for cable or sat (and 99% of the programming you don't watch) when you can subscribe to the shows you want and pay only for those? The future holds some interesting shifts in how we will get our entertainment...

/ thread hijack

Do you think that in 3 years the average household will have the capability of downloading a 30GB movie in any sort of reasonable timeframe? Or that streaming at 30mbps will be a reality in 3 years?

I don't

The movie won't be 30GB, it will be 7-8GB.

Remember, downloaded "HD" content is very low bitrate HD lite.

And yes, I do think it will happen, because there's an entire generation that has grown up with downloadable music and DIVX movies that they've pirated and they are more than willing to pay $5 to download an HD movie for conveniance sake.

I think in 3 years, 10GB/10mbps will be more than enough and most will have more than that...

ken

I really like this post. so i figure i will add my own view as one of the poor who cannot afford the HD game as things only get more confusing and more complicated.

1. i agree with the statement that no potential customer will see any difference in picture quality between the two. i will go even further with my experience and say that i see no difference in the B&Ms between the HD formats and the SD DVD formats that is worth spending the extra money i also hear no difference in sound quality that would make me wanna purchase something like that. DVD is awesome on the 37" tv that i was able to purchase.

2. I get a kick out of the assumption of the name brands that are suppose to equal quality. To me at this point its all high priced plastic made junk that is not user friendly and to complicated to fully understand unless you come to a board like this and read up about it all for at least 6 months then you can start to ask intelligent questions requarding the products that usually you cant find correct answers to in the stores where you can purchase the items.

3. LG is producing a dual drive player. dual format discs are coming out. So now i will have 3 choices not just 2. making it all just that much more confusing.

4. Peering out to the B&M stores i see no Blu-ray. I dont ask for help from the employees as a long time ago i found you cannot get any information on the products unless it is written on the box. that information i can read for myself. Every time an employee asks can i help you i tell the person no you cannot.

5. Whether I can or cannot afford it is immaterial at this point? maybe coming from someone who can afford it. It is totally material as i tell my firends to just keep buying DVDs as after researching this and have found that by the time that HD DVD is as mass produced as DVD is now (and only in something like 83% of households and its been out how long?) we will be in the era of 5000x2000 with Super Duper HD. My family and friends dont even have HD tv's much less can afford to upgrade each TV every two years as the new technology comes into play. What are they up to now with HDMI? 1.2 1.3? DVI is gone which was the newest just a little while ago where everything was going to work with DVI? So now what? Buy the new 2000 dollar tv now so the hd dvd's will work with it until some type of not used protection sceme is implimented and you need like HDMI 1.6 for it to work so you go and spend another 2000 dollars on a new tv? So for the format to suceed it has to have my money and it wont until one or the other or a new better format comes out and takes its place just as DVD took the place of LD.

6. blu-ray = UMD for playstation 3 and HD-DVD = UMD for xbox 360 of which neither i can afford to purchase at this point.

Well thats my opinion. you all can flame it hard if you want but its still my opinion none the less.