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Wall Street Journal Article with Standalone numbers - Page 5

post #121 of 216
Maybe he has, but either way his numbers do not match up with the numbers we have officially reported. He's definately regurgitating. Perhaps someone should contact him and ask him where he's sourcing? Anyone got that WSJ?

Amazon is still an invalid source, as is DVDWars.com of the overall market.

We knowfor a fact his numbers are off because Talledega Nights is no longer a packin, and that stopped at 500K. So Sony has absolutely shipped more than 500,000 units to US stores, they claim 800,000(let's even subtract 50,000 returns from scalpers). That still puts it at 750K, and 1.1million in houses worldwide.

I'm going to bet that the people who dismiss and refuse to count the PS3 are not, nor have they ever been gamers, and thus know nothing about the market or it's demographics. I find especially hilarious the ones who count the addon as a $200 HD-DVD player when it clearly costs at least $500 for a complete playback package.

Intent doesn't matter. How many Wiis will be gathering dust when the gimmick wears off in a few months? How many soloflexes? How do you know that the 360 addon people will keep buying movies?

You don't. It's the same boat as PS3, the difference being that no one who has a PS3 has to think about, or do anything to play BR discs, while the 360 people have to go out and buy a special device for $200. You're going to get a lot of casual purchases that the addon will never see.
post #122 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Mullis View Post

Don't be an *******, xbdestroya. I asked him to provide the link to the claim he was making. A link was provided, and I am satisfied. I'm sorry we're not all massively superior people that know it all as you do. We mere mortals don't have your super powers. You're quickly sliding into my ignore list section.

The problem I have is that you basically took the stance that unless he provided a link, you just simply wouldn't believe him. Innocent until proven guilty is fine by me, but when something is so easy to research you'd think that all parties involved would at least do the one second Google search required to reach the conclusion, rather than defer it.

If you have been party to said Toshiba-subsidization discussions in the past:

1) Why were you playing coy when he said it was common knowledge?

and

2) Did this very well-known teardown analysis not get posted in *any* of those debates?

It's not about 'super powers,' but rather what I perceived to have been willfully playing dumb on a matter that is indeed well documented. If I read it wrong, and you were indeed unawares that this was 'common knowledge,' I apologize. But you could see where your post count and your join date would have left me to assume that you'd likely come across this before.

Quote:


And it's not the first time. But there has been debate on this same forum about the validity of claims that Toshiba subsidized it's players. There is a VAST difference between losing money on a product, and having someone else subsidize the cost of that product. If losing money is the definition of subsidize, someone needs to change it in the dictionary.

People say that Toshiba is 'subsidizing' HD DVD because their willingness to take a loss on the players is what allows them to price said players in a bracket that has sped up adoption of the actual format (which is where they want to win ultimately). It's the same model console makers use to speed up adoption of their software, where the real money for them lies.
post #123 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by Forceflow View Post

Yes, dvdwars. Same data, click on view all for Top 10. Look at the BD launch, mid june. See that spike? See it die off? See it continue to die off? See it come back around the start of Oct.?

Just now its getting close to parity and that is with no real annoucements or releases by the HD DVD camp. BB is still #2 and still ranked above 250 after so many months. Look at the top 10 BD movies, all are new releases. HD DVD is by no means done for and I think this latest BD surge, like the one in mid June, will fail to maintain its steam.

Just for kicks, click on see all for In top 100. Then uncheck show HD DVD. Flatline.

If you look at the top 10 average and the number in the top 10000 charts, HD DVD is still trending above Blu-ray. What you have to see is that the top of the chart represents a lot more sales than the bottom so the top gap is much harder to close and means a lot more.

If the top 10 HD DVD graph is trending 600 as an average, and Blu-ray has gone from 3000 t0 1000 it looks like a hell of a closing gain, but the gap of what a sales ranking of 600 means compared to 1000 still remains.

3000 may mean 1 sale per day. 1000 may mean 100 sales per day and 500 may mean 500 sales per day. The linear nature of the graph exaggerates the closing rate, if the graph is rescaled (look at the 7 day trends) a gap can still be seen that can be a significant delta in sales.
post #124 of 216
Quote:


We've now officially crossed over from roll-your-eyes territory into looneytoonesville.

ROFLMAO

post #125 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

@Kosty: I'm not saying the guy isn't legit... in fact, many an industry analyst does no more than check the news of the day and draw analysis relative to their general industry knowledge. Again I'm not knocking the guy, I'm just saying that Adams doesn't create numbers... he reports them. And where those numbers come from originally makes all the difference in terms of their relevence to our conversations here.

It's just figures like 150,000 add-ons sold... commonly known to be the initial target run of the add-on in the first place.... are just too even and convenient. (And I *know* not all of those have sold, just by walking around stores.) Just like 400,000 PS3's, the *exact* target launch amount Sony claimed to have in the wings for the US on launch day, is just too even and convenient a number for him to be quoting. Hell, SOny didn't even meet that target... yet quickly surpassed it on proceeding shipments. So there is no other way he could come to 400k exactly except to be quoting (lazily) articles like this: http://www.gamespot.com/news/6157152.html

For him to be quoting the numbers he is, this guy is reading the same news we are and regurgitating it. Not only that, but he regurgitates some incorrect figures for lack of effort in follow-up.

Agreed .

Well, for a few of the in depth guys here at AVS, some may know more information on the HD format wars than many of those guys. You and I both could probably give some good quotes to the press.

Just because he is using those numbers though, doesn't mean he hasn't validated them somewhat.
post #126 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

If the top 10 HD DVD graph is trending 600 as an average, and Blu-ray has gone from 3000 t0 1000 it looks like a hell of a closing gain, but the gap of what a sales ranking of 600 means compared to 1000 still remains.

3000 may mean 1 sale per day. 1000 may mean 100 sales per day and 500 may mean 500 sales per day. The linear nature of the graph exaggerates the closing rate, if the graph is rescaled (look at the 7 day trends) a gap can still be seen that can be a significant delta in sales.

I've seen you mention before that the gap between 1000 and 500 could be big and that could be true, but if it is real big, then the numbers just for the last few days are interesting. Going back to the last entry on http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/versus.aspx which was Jan 2nd at 4 am, HD DVD was at 913 average for the top 10 according to that site. 24 hours later they were at 1061. 24 more hours they were at 576. And almost 24 hours later they are at 814. I don't know what time thedvdwars.com site updates their charts, but the other one is every half hour. At the moment that gap shows 814 to 1072 between HD DVD and Blu-ray, so if the gap between 500 and 1000 is as big as you are speculating, then Blu-ray must have closed a lot (with HD DVD dropping quite a bit).

There are some complicating factors, like "Superman Returns" selling out on Blu-ray so it can't even be ordered for shipment later (it shot up when it came into stock, sold out quickly and then started falling again). A couple of days ago the site wasn't including SR on HD DVD and I mentioned it here, then it looks like it got corrected. There are also other titles that are selling out on both that tend to hurt their rankings.

--Darin
post #127 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

I've seen you mention before that the gap between 1000 and 500 could be big and that could be true, but if it is real big, then the numbers just for the last few days are interesting. Going back to the last entry on http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/versus.aspx which was Jan 2nd at 4 am, HD DVD was at 913 average for the top 10 according to that site. 24 hours later they were at 1061. 24 more hours they were at 576. And almost 24 hours later they are at 814. I don't know what time thedvdwars.com site updates their charts, but the other one is every half hour. At the moment that gap shows 814 to 1072 between HD DVD and Blu-ray, so if the gap between 500 and 1000 is as big as you are speculating, then Blu-ray must have closed a lot (with HD DVD dropping quite a bit).

There are some complicating factors, like "Superman Returns" selling out on Blu-ray so it can't even be ordered for shipment later (it shot up when it came into stock, sold out quickly and then started falling again). A couple of days ago the site wasn't including SR on HD DVD and I mentioned it here, then it looks like it got corrected. There are also other titles that are selling out on both that tend to hurt their rankings.

--Darin

I am starting to track the hdgamdb site. The problem there is there is a hour by hour change which tends to stabilize over a longer 24 hour period. The dvdwars site does a sampling snapshot at the same time every day, so the hourly variation is softened. Over a couple says the trend becomes clearer.

It would be nice if we could get long historical data form that site for more than 72 hours. I have an idea about that, but I am sure it will be feasible.

The daily snapshot and historical tracking of the dvdwars site gives better trend information, but the db site has all the raw data but doesn't keep it for long enough to make sense of it. It gives a looking at tree bark perspective instead of seeing the forest. It would be nice to have that data for a longer period.

I agree with the micro issues of tracking the Amazon stats, but I think their is validity in the trends.
post #128 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

I am starting to track the hdgamdb site. The problem there is there is a hour by hour change which tends to stabilize over a longer 24 hour period. The dvdwars site does a sampling snapshot at the same time every day, so the hourly variation is softened. Over a couple says the trend becomes clearer.

This makes it sound like less samples gives you more reliable information. Do you believe that the numbers are related to the hour (as in they will tend to be up at a certain time of day and down at another time)? Because if not I would say that it is thedvdwars.com site that has the weakness from drawing straight lines between their points 24 hours apart. Being able to go back further is of course nice, but I would prefer a chart that had snapshots every half hour to one that had snapshots every day, all else being equal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

I agree with the micro issues of tracking the Amazon stats, but I think their is validity in the trends.

I agree that there is validity in looking at trends, but do you agree that it would be a little strange for the HD DVD stats to jump around as much as they have if the gap in sales between 500 and 1000 is 5x?

--Darin
post #129 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

This makes it sound like less samples gives you more reliable information. Do you believe that the numbers are related to the hour (as in they will tend to be up at a certain time of day and down at another time)? Because if not I would say that it is thedvdwars.com site that has the weakness from drawing straight lines between their points 24 hours apart. Being able to go back further is of course nice, but I would prefer a chart that had snapshots every half hour to one that had snapshots every day, all else being equal.
I agree that there is validity in looking at trends, but do you agree that it would be a little strange for the HD DVD stats to jump around as much as they have if the gap in sales between 500 and 1000 is 5x?

--Darin

More samples or more data would be better. But seeing it over time is more useful as there is short term volativity that is just random noise.

I would like more samples over a longer time period. I may have discovered how to do that for the db site, but it may be too time intensive to make it practicable.

Its just that the hour to hour ratings vary based on the sales in a more random manner than the average over a several day period when the total aging and total cumulative sales part of the Anazon equation kicks in. There is not a lot of differnece between say a 746 and 800 number, its almost random hour by hour, but over a couple days the cumlative effect seperates out the rankings.

There is a lot more volativity hour by hour than day by day. or week by week.
post #130 of 216
I may have a method that can track those hourly changes over time. The stats are updated hourly although the site gives 30 minute breaks. If you notice there are no change between every other 30 minute interval.
post #131 of 216
Thread Starter 
1. iSupply was wrong. A Toshiba VP has been quoted in the press in saying he's wrong. A VP at CEDIA told me that iSupply was "very mistaken." They didn't understand that chip costs as well as some other costs were much less for Toshiba because they make them vs buying them. It was shoddy internet journalism. Not one "article," on it ever even tried to contact Toshiba about it. You don't even get "Toshiba refused comment," and it's bunk. I believe iSupply said the PS3 was losing like $500 a unit and Sony says it's $200.

RCA sold units that Toshiba sold them. So Toshiba lost a massive amount on those? SURE. Talk of cheap <$350 Chinese players has been going around for awhile (supposedly Spring 2007, so should be announced at CES) players has consistently been mentioned. They would be losing money as well?

Not likely. iSupply said they could be wrong and they had no idea by how much. It seems by about $300.

I've always been told that they were making "barely anything," and couldn't reduce the MSRP anymore. The A2 was needed for that, the A2 according to Toshiba can be lowered to around $350 and still be profitable.

2. The CONFIRMABLE hardware numbers are good into the middle of December on the Addon, 2nd week of December for the PS3, 25th of December for Toshiba, etc.

Knowing the person being quoted in the article's history he was only using confirmed numbers of SALES vs. shipped. So he is using mixed data. We know the addon sold 50,000 units in roughly 11 days. We also know that the initial shipment of PS3s was around 195,000.

The numbers are legit.

The big problem for BD is standalone sales

If you're a CE why would you make a BD player? The competition is selling 5 times as many players as all of you combined! The competition is also cheaper to manufacture.

LG had a VP quit because they were going to release a BD player!!!!

Now they are releasing a Universal player, and that is smart.

We're told more CEs will be making HD-DVD players.

We now know it will be Toshiba, RCA, and LG with players definately.

Other CEs aren't stupid. They see the sales differences.
post #132 of 216
Quote:


Maybe everyone is renting?

Probably not everyone, but i do suspect movie renting would be a common trait for console owning movie viewers.
post #133 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by gooki View Post

Probably not everyone, but i do suspect movie renting would be a common trait for console owning movie viewers.

I know I'm doing a lot of renting. I don't have the same enthusiasm to replace my DVDs like I did with VHS. I've been a lot more selective with what titles I buy.
post #134 of 216
tsd2005
Very well explained about the isupply and see the stand alones for bluray not doing well.Pioneer,panasonic etc must not be happy with small return they are getting.
thanks
post #135 of 216
tsd2005

Logic is the kryptonite of spin.
post #136 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by tsd2005 View Post

I've always been told that they were making "barely anything," and couldn't reduce the MSRP anymore. The A2 was needed for that, the A2 according to Toshiba can be lowered to around $350 and still be profitable.

Just to confirm: $350 MSRP?

If so, the predictions of an A2 MSRP at $399 in Q2 2007 might make sense. The predictions of an A2 MSRP at $299 do not however.
post #137 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by tsd2005 View Post

1. iSupply was wrong. A Toshiba VP has been quoted in the press in saying he's wrong.

Are you refering to the fella working in Toshiba's Australian organisation, with no particular connection to their HD DVD division? He offered no information, and didn't suggest he knew anything at all. I believe his words were along the line that he didn't think selling at a loss was consistant with his knowledge of Toshiba's general policy.

Quote:


A VP at CEDIA told me that iSupply was "very mistaken." They didn't understand that chip costs as well as some other costs were much less for Toshiba because they make them vs buying them. It was shoddy internet journalism.

That's odd, an SVP told me it was actually a fairly conservative estimate. Don't believe everything you're told folks, particularly by "insiders" on the internet...

Quote:


RCA sold units that Toshiba sold them. So Toshiba lost a massive amount on those? SURE.

How many Toshiba units had the RCA badge slapped on them? And how much is the marketing budget for HD DVD? Please think before you type.
post #138 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by tsd2005 View Post

The big problem for BD is standalone sales

If you're a CE why would you make a BD player? The competition is selling 5 times as many players as all of you combined! The competition is also cheaper to manufacture.

LG had a VP quit because they were going to release a BD player!!!!

Now they are releasing a Universal player, and that is smart.

Following your logic, LG should be making an HD DVD only player.

LG is killing competitiveness in the HD DVD marketplace by filling their box with (your claim) more expensive to manufacture BD stuff. That's smart?

The problem is an LG can't compete with the PS/3 in the BD player space. The combo distiguishes them. But, it's still a BD player. And people won't be buying it if they don't intend to purchase BD discs.

Gary
post #139 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by Issac Hunt View Post

Are you refering to the fella working in Toshiba's Australian organisation, with no particular connection to their HD DVD division? He offered no information, and didn't suggest he knew anything at all. I believe his words were along the line that he didn't think selling at a loss was consistant with his knowledge of Toshiba's general policy.


That's odd, an SVP told me it was actually a fairly conservative estimate. Don't believe everything you're told folks, particularly by "insiders" on the internet...


How many Toshiba units had the RCA badge slapped on them? And how much is the marketing budget for HD DVD? Please think before you type.

I got much the same information as tsd2005 on this issue during Cedia and through other sale distribution channels. Not just through the www. Best guess was a smaller loss than the iSuppli estimate for the HD A1, close to breakeven on the HD XA1, but any loss was limited by the small production run of around 70, 000 units and was treated as a wise investment/
post #140 of 216
Quote:


People say that Toshiba is 'subsidizing' HD DVD because their willingness to take a loss on the players is what allows them to price said players in a bracket that has sped up adoption of the actual format (which is where they want to win ultimately). It's the same model console makers use to speed up adoption of their software, where the real money for them lies.

Ok, but that's not "subsidizing" either. The definition of the word is not the same as "selling for a loss". It's two different things.

But then if we are going on the perception of what a subsidy is, we are all agreed that Sony is currently "subsidizing" the Playstation 3?

So really if Sony had to subsidize the PS3 in order to get Blu-ray out there. Isn't that the attack that was given on Toshiba? And so why aren't we hearing the same cries of "foul" that Sony is doing the same thing Toshiba did?


And again XB I am not interested in quabbling about what your problems are with what everyone posts here. I was looking for a link, not a link with commentary was the bottom line. And as tsd2005 has said, those reports are in doubt, so it's not exactly "common knowledge", and I'll leave that part of our conversation at that.
post #141 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by tsd2005 View Post

1. iSupply was wrong.

Prove it. Ranting about it without a shred of proof does not disprove it. Besides, those are all (for the most part) off-the-shelf components; very little was custom for the unit according to the analysis.
post #142 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by joshd2012 View Post

Dual format players ensure that both formats are here to stay and no hardware sales numbers are going to change that.

Finally something that we both can agree on.

The recent developments re: universal players and universal discs seem to make it apparent that since there has not been a clear winner thus far in the format war, more entities want to find a solution that embraces both formats. I imagine that we'll see that approach continue, especially from companies/studios that currently do not have a vested interest or sunk cost in the format war to date.
post #143 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark0 View Post

Darin, I don't discredit the PS3 impact at all. If the Amazon sales charts are representative (and I think they certainly are) blu-ray sales have come very close to HD DVD over the past month. But to be honest, the past month, you'd expect a pretty good bump in blu-ray sales. But then again, the HD DVD releases haven't been much to cheer about over the same time period.
On another note, I think blu-ray disk sales will level off then drop as the "ooh, it plays blu-ray movies too" fad will wear off, especially as seeing the PS3 supply has essentially met demand.
But if I'm wrong, and blu-ray titles do maintain to grow and surpass HD DVD over the next couple months, then Sony's backdoor (Trojan Horse) strategy will appear to be working.

If the studios remain exclusive, then it doesn't seem that the HD DVD only releases are slated to be much better so shouldn't that BD bump continue since most believe that the announced BD only title look pretty good.

Why would you think of the movie playing feature as a "fad" in the eyes of gamers? I do not think a gamer would go out and buy $20-$30 movie to test the BD player. IMO, if a gamer bought movies before the PS3 and bought movies in December then I would think the behavior would continue. Buying a movie isn't an impulse purchase and something someone would do to check out the player.

IMO, if you one were to believe that there are only 25k standalone players out there then either those 25k owners are buying lots of movies or the PS3 is having an impact.
post #144 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by darkedgex View Post

It's common knowledge... oh right, common to everyone but HD DVD fanbois. Here, link, link, and excerpt from article making the statement:

Slashdot: http://hardware.slashdot.org/article...6/06/23/210201
EETimes: http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/s...leID=189600999

From the EETimes article titled "'Teardown' finds Toshiba taking a loss on HD DVD player":
According to iSuppli's teardown analysis, bill-of-materials (BOM) costs for Toshiba's HD-A1 HD DVD total an estimated $674, far exceeding the unit's $499 U.S. retail price. The estimated BOM figure excludes costs for manufacturing, testing, cables, remote control and packagingcosts that could easily push the total cost of each unit to more than $700, iSuppli (El Segundo, Calif.) said. Let me guess, next you guys will dispute the article or claim it's BD FUD.

Or it's possible a good percentage of the sales were as Christmas presents, which weren't opened until December 25th. Wait for January numbers? But I guess since HD DVD sales went down in December, we can make the leap that the XBox 360 HD DVD add-on wasn't used for movies at all.

Thanks for the links. You just need to know, that in order to be taken seriously here, you need to back up your claims. I have heard over and over again about subsity and this is the first time I have laid eyes on them. So in one breath I will say, yes, it looks like Toshiba subsidized their players and in the nest I will ask how does that matter to us?

You misunderstand me for someone taking sides. I am neither pro HD DVD or pro BD. Review my history and you will see. I own both formats and I call it like I see it. Just because someone disagrees with your opinion doesn't mean they don't support the same rpoduct. We aren't on the Sony/BD softball team together.

Like your last paragraph...if the movies where purchased as presents, they would count as sales...guess when? Wait for it...when they where purchased. Not when they were opened. Do you have a bar code scanner at your house?

I really think the Holiday sales boost is a direct reflection of the PS3 entering the market. HD DVD sales never dropped, they stayed the same. The PS3 has yet to have the profound effect on the HD market as predicted. If there are 1 million players out there, as you say, even if software sales should only count when little Jonny opens his presents don't you think BD sales should have been higher, even going by your argument.

I'm not anti BD, I'm anti poo
post #145 of 216
Quote:


1. iSupply was wrong. A Toshiba VP has been quoted in the press in saying he's wrong. A VP at CEDIA told me that iSupply was "very mistaken." They didn't understand that chip costs as well as some other costs were much less for Toshiba because they make them vs buying them. It was shoddy internet journalism. Not one "article," on it ever even tried to contact Toshiba about it. You don't even get "Toshiba refused comment," and it's bunk. I believe iSupply said the PS3 was losing like $500 a unit and Sony says it's $200.

The proof is not in iSupply, or in Toshiba's statements. It's that they're charging double for the same deck outside of the US.

Quote:


The big problem for BD is standalone sales

The PS3 is a standalone player by every definition of the word, including the dictionary. No matter how much you like it
The 360 addon is not, as it requires a $300 minimunm game console in order to function (or a $1000+ PC)

Quote:


But then if we are going on the perception of what a subsidy is, we are all agreed that Sony is currently "subsidizing" the Playstation 3?
So really if Sony had to subsidize the PS3 in order to get Blu-ray out there. Isn't that the attack that was given on Toshiba? And so why aren't we hearing the same cries of "foul" that Sony is doing the same thing Toshiba did?

Of course Sony is. It's standard procedure in the games industry to sell your console at a loss(unless you're Nintendo)
You're trying to turn it around. The difference is that Sony has a reasonable expectation of making back, given that they get $10 for every piece of software on the market. Toshiba is at best getting a quarter, and it's probably far closer to a nickle. There are plenty of people with 30 games for their game console, but nowhere near as many people with a thousand or more DVDs it'd take to make up the difference on Toshiba's HD-DVD players.

Quote:


. Besides, those are all (for the most part) off-the-shelf components; very little was custom for the unit according to the analysis.

True. From the pictures of the A-1 opened up, it's a lot of off the shelf PC parts. That's part of the problem Microsoft had with getting the original XBox down in price
post #146 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by darkedgex View Post

Prove it. Ranting about it without a shred of proof does not disprove it. Besides, those are all (for the most part) off-the-shelf components; very little was custom for the unit according to the analysis.

iSupply drive costs were wrong. And it is not an off the shelf unit.

Many parts Tosh buys from Intel are at a huge volume. Only Intel & Tosh know the prices. Those are confidential and iSupply won't know them - unless they have spies.
post #147 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by theswami View Post

If the studios remain exclusive, then it doesn't seem that the HD DVD only releases are slated to be much better so shouldn't that BD bump continue since most believe that the announced BD only title look pretty good.

Why would you think of the movie playing feature as a "fad" in the eyes of gamers? I do not think a gamer would go out and buy $20-$30 movie to test the BD player. IMO, if a gamer bought movies before the PS3 and bought movies in December then I would think the behavior would continue. Buying a movie isn't an impulse purchase and something someone would do to check out the player.

IMO, if you one were to believe that there are only 25k standalone players out there then either those 25k owners are buying lots of movies or the PS3 is having an impact.

The bump in Blu-ray sales is partly from the PS3, but I believe more importantly, it's from the new releases which are more likely being bought up by movie fans as opposed to game players. Have you noticed that nearly all of the blu-ray's to 20 or so best selling titles have been released in the past month or so? Many of them also appear to be exclusive, so there are a lot of HD DVD supporters that have held off buying into blu-ray until the PS3 or the discounted Samsung.

I don't think gamers care about the PS3 movie playback.... not enough to buy movies at $20-40 apiece. I'm sure they prefer to save up their allowance for a game. But I do think there's a better chance they'll rent titles from Netflix, Blockbuster.

Again, I think a lot of those 25k owners bought their stand alones in the past month or so. My guess is it's probably around 10 of the 25k. I'd also say a good 20-30k of the PS3's were bought as a stanalone over the same time period, but I expect those storng sales to level off as well as the PS3 hasn't exactly been the blockbuster blu-ray player many were hoping for. (I'm hearing the $550 Samsung is the better movie player).
post #148 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by WickyWoo View Post

Maybe he has, but either way his numbers do not match up with the numbers we have officially reported. He's definately regurgitating. Perhaps someone should contact him and ask him where he's sourcing? Anyone got that WSJ?.


Emphasis added



Why do people keep using the term "official" numbers, and "officially" reported? Were these numbers turned into the government somewhere? Just what exactly is official about them?
post #149 of 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

@Kosty: I'm not saying the guy isn't legit... in fact, many an industry analyst does no more than check the news of the day and draw analysis relative to their general industry knowledge. Again I'm not knocking the guy, I'm just saying that Adams doesn't create numbers... he reports them. And where those numbers come from originally makes all the difference in terms of their relevence to our conversations here.

It's just figures like 150,000 add-ons sold... commonly known to be the initial target run of the add-on in the first place.... are just too even and convenient. (And I *know* not all of those have sold, just by walking around stores.) Just like 400,000 PS3's, the *exact* target launch amount Sony claimed to have in the wings for the US on launch day, is just too even and convenient a number for him to be quoting. Hell, SOny didn't even meet that target... yet quickly surpassed it on proceeding shipments. So there is no other way he could come to 400k exactly except to be quoting (lazily) articles like this: http://www.gamespot.com/news/6157152.html

For him to be quoting the numbers he is, this guy is reading the same news we are and regurgitating it. Not only that, but he regurgitates some incorrect figures for lack of effort in follow-up.

I agree. It's one thing if he's getting those numbers from inside sources at the CE companies. It's another if he is getting them analyzing data he has collected from retail stores. It's another if he is passing on his estimate based on open source news reporting. He has valid credentials, but in the end he is just a guy who told us how many he thinks are out there. He didn't tell us why he thinks that many are out there, or how confident he is in those numbers.

Perhaps someone should try to reach him for a comment.
post #150 of 216
Quote:


The difference is that Sony has a reasonable expectation of making back, given that they get $10 for every piece of software on the market. Toshiba is at best getting a quarter, and it's probably far closer to a nickle. There are plenty of people with 30 games for their game console, but nowhere near as many people with a thousand or more DVDs it'd take to make up the difference on Toshiba's HD-DVD players.


I highlighted part of your quote to sort of make my counterpoint. Right above that you said the PS3 was a standalone player by definition. But then it wouldn't rely on game sales to make up the difference in the hardware loss. And that is absolutely true and all video game consoles do this, including the PS2 and Xbox. But because they have to make that money back on software, they have to bill the PS3 as a game console. And that's the point where you can start to jostle on how many people use it as a BD player and how many aren't going to.

And that number is going to correlate with what Blu-ray movie sales are, whatever that number is.

It's my hope that SOMEONE puts out some real numbers at CES so we could at least get past the speculation and find out just who is winning this thing.
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