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Phillip Swann: No Winner at CES

post #1 of 147
Thread Starter 
Well. this one should get some heckles raised. Read and discuss!

http://www.tvpredictions.com/formatwar010907.htm
post #2 of 147
With the puzzling Universal non-announcement, HD-DVD's desperate attempt to get "50 GB" associated with their side, the numerous BD studio announcements of movie releases, no major studio switching to neutrality, one side announcing actual sales and the other announcing only projections, and numerous BD studio statements of continued exclusivity, it's pretty clear who "won".
post #3 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob Zuber View Post

With the puzzling Universal non-announcement, HD-DVD's desperate attempt to get "50 GB" associated with their side, the numerous BD studio announcements of movie releases, no major studio switching to neutrality, one side announcing actual sales and the other announcing only projections, and numerous BD studio statements of continued exclusivity, it's pretty clear who "won".

Yep, if you had to pick that somebody won, it would have to be HD DVD. New CE companies releasing HD DVD players to cover entry level to high-end players (from Venturer-Shinco, Alco, Lite-On, Onkyo, Meridian), a new $599 1080P HD DVD player from Toshiba, new TL discs, 300+ additional titles for 2007, BANDAI VISUAL announcing anime films for HD DVD (this has a HUGE following), I'd have to pick HD DVD for sure. Blu-Ray supporters spewed a lot of "market speak" in an effort to woo over potential fence-sitters, but the average joe doesn't go out looking for press releases. They're looking for good prices and quality titles, something that HD DVD has that will only get better.
post #4 of 147
What came out from the BD side other then ~30-40 new release dates over the next ~4 months? Did they do anything to push the format forward? I figure it's possible I might have missed something.
post #5 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Capek View Post

What came out from the BD side other then ~30-40 new release dates over the next ~4 months? Did they do anything to push the format forward? I figure it's possible I might have missed something.

They've done nothing to push the Blu-Ray market forward, other than scramble to announce titles. It's the only real thing they could do, everything else was market-speak absurdity.
post #6 of 147
Thread Starter 
Quote:


With the puzzling Universal non-announcement

Out of curiosity, what did they need to announce? A flyer was available on the show floor that had several Universal upcoming movies on it.

What I think we're getting hung up on is that UNIVERSAL didn't announce the titles, the HD DVD promo group did.


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HD-DVD's desperate attempt to get "50 GB" associated with their side,

What makes that desperate? No titles were announced to use it. It wasn't mentioned as a need for space for movies as of yet.


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the numerous BD studio announcements of movie releases

As well as the HD DVD studios announcements of movie releases. 300 I think the press release said?


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no major studio switching to neutrality

None moving to BD exclusivity either.


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one side announcing actual sales and the other announcing only projections

Then what the hell was that crystal-ball Fox graph all about?? BOTH sides gave actual numbers, and BOTH sides announced projections. You apparently only saw what you wanted to see.


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and numerous BD studio statements of continued exclusivity

Which moves the field no further to one side or the other.


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it's pretty clear who "won".

Really? People disagree.
post #7 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Capek View Post

What came out from the BD side other then ~30-40 new release dates over the next ~4 months? Did they do anything to push the format forward? I figure it's possible I might have missed something.


Well, let's not forget Fox's chart clearly showing Blu Ray beating HD DVD by 2012
post #8 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by joshd2012 View Post

Read the forums across the web. You don't see many proclaiming to be disappointed with what Blu-ray brought to the table. On the other hand...

yeah, gotta love the scare tactics. Doesn't surprise me what with alliwantforxmasisapsp.com and all the other Sony/Fox fud. Fortunately, ppl aren't that stupid
post #9 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by joshd2012 View Post

Read the forums across the web. You don't see many proclaiming to be disappointed with what Blu-ray brought to the table. On the other hand...

That's because they're all scrambling to convince themselves that: Additional HD DVD CE support isn't important, that lower-priced HD DVD players for the mass market isn't important, that 300+ new HD DVD titles isn't important, that anime titles from Bandai isn't important, that the porn industry isn't important, and franky that all good news for HD DVD is some how unimportant.

If they all say it to each other long enough, maybe they'll start to feel warm and fuzzy. Until reality hits.

To each their own.
post #10 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Mullis View Post

Well. this one should get some heckles raised. Read and discuss!

http://www.tvpredictions.com/formatwar010907.htm

I'm not really a fan of his, but I think it was a reasonable article. Also, as far as having a winner or not, it looked clear to me that he was saying that we don't have a winner for the format war from CES, which I think any reasonable person would agree on. As far as which side did better at CES, I didn't see him clearly address that and I think his point that there will still be a war going on at CES 2008 is probably true. I think it is likely that things will be more clear then, but doubt one side will fold before then.

--Darin
post #11 of 147
You guys do realise that the average consumer has no idea what CES even is! Until I started reading this forum, I didn't care what is was and I've been doing HD since 1997.

No one cares, and by next week no one, except us, will even remember what happened.

What will matter is when the low cost players start hitting the shelves at BB and CC and especially Walmart. Then we will see the numbers of real players become even more lopsided than they are now in favor of HD DVD. By then there will be an additional 100 titles on the shelves to go with the already 150 titles and that my friends is real choice. Not a graph that predicts moving ahead in 1010!
post #12 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by trgraphics View Post

You guys do realise that the average consumer has no idea what CES even is! Until I started reading this forum, I didn't care what is was and I've been doing HD since 1997.

No one cares, and by next week no one, except us, will even remember what happened.

What will matter is when the low cost players start hitting the shelves at BB and CC and especially Walmart. Then we will see the numbers of real players become even more lopsided than they are now in favor of HD DVD. By then there will be an additional 100 titles on the shelves to go with the already 150 titles and that my friends is real choice. Not a graph that predicts moving ahead in 1010!

Yep!
post #13 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by trgraphics View Post

What will matter is when the low cost players start hitting the shelves at BB and CC and especially Walmart.

Exactly: price advantage. This war has already been won by HD DVD the day they announced the lower production costs for their tech. But Blu-Ray supporters believe that J6P is going to look to some "studio support list" on the web before going to BB. Maybe they are reading too much AVS...
post #14 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Mullis View Post

Then what the hell was that crystal-ball Fox graph all about?? BOTH sides gave actual numbers, and BOTH sides announced projections. You apparently only saw what you wanted to see.

You are talking to a guy who actually voted to say initial BD releases were better than HD DVD
post #15 of 147
After CES, I noticed at least 7000-10000 people from the HD DVD side go to Blu-ray on AVS. I didn't see a single Blu-ray guy move to HD DVD.

Edited: For more accurate number.

HD DVD trolls make me want to buy them diapers.
post #16 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by eightninesuited View Post

After CES, I noticed at least 7-10 people from the HD DVD side go to Blu-ray on AVS. I didn't see a single Blu-ray guy move to HD DVD.

Can you list them? Not that it matters, really... You might want to omit nyg, though, he changes sides more often than Rosie O'Donnell goes to Krispy Kreme.
post #17 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by eightninesuited View Post

After CES, I noticed at least 7-10 people from the HD DVD side go to Blu-ray on AVS. I didn't see a single Blu-ray guy move to HD DVD.

you do know you're gonna have to back that up right? is it 7 or 10? Who, names, SNs? And how do you know not a single BD person went neutral? sounds unfalsifiable
post #18 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by eightninesuited View Post

After CES, I noticed at least 7-10 people from the HD DVD side go to Blu-ray on AVS. I didn't see a single Blu-ray guy move to HD DVD.

Not according to the poll.

And name the people who switched ...
post #19 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by eightninesuited View Post

After CES, I noticed at least 7-10 people from the HD DVD side go to Blu-ray on AVS. I didn't see a single Blu-ray guy move to HD DVD.

7-10 people? Hell, HD DVD might as well close the doors now. Isn't that the same number of people that actually own a BR player?
post #20 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by eightninesuited View Post

After CES, I noticed at least 7-10 people from the HD DVD side go to Blu-ray on AVS. I didn't see a single Blu-ray guy move to HD DVD.

Once they realize that Blu-Ray supporters basically said nothing except "blah blah blah" and that HD DVD did in fact make some very SIGNIFICANT announcements, they'll be back. It is inevitable, Mr. Eightninesuited!
post #21 of 147
the hd-dvd die-hards on this forum are hilarious, but kind of sad at the same time. reading the desperation in their posts is morbidly fascinating.

this new reliance on unheard of chinese companies manufacuring hardware that no store in the US would ever dream of stocking is a turn in their logic so crazy, its gotta be genuine. i couldn't make this stuff up if i tried.

have any chinese companies actually even said anything? much less given a price?
post #22 of 147
Thread Starter 
Quote:


I'm not really a fan of his, but I think it was a reasonable article. Also, as far as having a winner or not, it looked clear to me that he was saying that we don't have a winner for the format war from CES, which I think any reasonable person would agree on. As far as which side did better at CES, I didn't see him clearly address that and I think his point that there will still be a war going on at CES 2008 is probably true. I think it is likely that things will be more clear then, but doubt one side will fold before then.

I go about 50/50 on Phillip. Some things I wonder where he gets his info from, and some things he tends to be pretty on target from. But I also thought it was reasonable. Look, Blu-ray did what they had to do, announce titles. HD DVD chose to stick to the hardware side and because of that, people think they had this horrible showing.

Movie announcements trump player announcements in many people's minds, and that is certainly fair. But CES is also a place to talk about hardware and gadgets, and in that sense, HD DVD did a fine job.
post #23 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by diddlyd View Post

the hd-dvd die-hards on this forum are hilarious, but kind of sad at the same time. reading the desperation in their posts is morbidly fascinating.

this new reliance on unheard of chinese companies manufacuring hardware that no store in the US would ever dream of stocking is a turn in their logic so crazy, its gotta be genuine. i couldn't make this stuff up if i tried.

have any chinese companies actually even said anything? much less given a price?

Keep convincing yourself, it's ok. You'll come around eventually.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dylanneild View Post

Can my kids watch Disney films?

Yes they sure can. My kids don't care about whether the movie is on DVD or in some high definition format. They just wanna see the dang movie!
post #24 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Mullis View Post

Movie announcements trump player announcements in many people's minds, and that is certainly fair. But CES is also a place to talk about hardware and gadgets, and in that sense, HD DVD did a fine job.

Certainly, the Blu-Ray supporters on this forum read about titles being announced and all smile as if they're all in one big group hug because they're thinking Blu-Ray title announcements = a sure win, but this is shortsightedness. In order to sell the titles, they need people they can sell them to, and once HD DVD delivers numerous dedicated players to market HD DVD will grow at an exponential pace. Blu-Ray, on the other hand, will still have relatively few dedicated players and a base of PS3 owners who MIGHT buy a few titles, and I suspect the vast majority will purchase very few Blu-Ray titles. HD DVD has the vision they need to succeed, and they're making excellent progress. It is only a matter of time.
post #25 of 147
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Originally Posted by dylanneild View Post

So you're resorting to "if it's on on HD-DVD it doesn't exist in HD format" as your argument? Pretty sad.

Uh, no. It's not important to me, and upconversion on my HTPC rivals the XA2 I'm sure.

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I'll change the second question to "Can I watch James Bond in HD?". Content is king, and BD has the content. Only the most idiotic of consumer would buy any media player unless he knew what media he/she could play on it.

AVS users may actual check master lists, but most consumers at least check the rack in the store.

Content is king? What if you've got the "content" but the mass market doesn't buy into the format? Then what? HD DVD has the momentum to introduce inexpensive HD DVD players that the average consumer can afford and WILL buy. THIS is what will sell content, and HD DVD has fantastic content right now with another 300 titles being released this year. BD exclusive studios will eventually be releasing on HD DVD, just as they did when they were DIVX exclusive. And yes, I can wait.
post #26 of 147
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Originally Posted by dylanneild View Post

Even if 1% of all PS3 users buy Blu-ray discs (and the number is likely nowhere NEAR that - probably closer to 10%), you're still talking about 10,000 blu-ray buyers in north america. it's pretty safe to assume that in the PS3's lifetime they'll manage to sell 10M units. this is 100,000 blu-ray players.

If you go to 10%, which is probably not even a conservative estimate, the number becomes 100,000 -now- and 1,000,000 in 3 or 4 years.

It's not really debatable... as things are trending now, both in content announcements and installed players, Blu-ray isn't doing great, but it's still doing a lot better than HD-DVD a year from now.

I am sure we will revisit this a year from now, and you will be quite impressed I'm sure at just how strong HD DVD has become. Once the snowball gets rolling, it grows very quickly.
post #27 of 147
Quote:


With the puzzling Universal non-announcement, HD-DVD's desperate attempt to get "50 GB" associated with their side, the numerous BD studio announcements of movie releases, no major studio switching to neutrality, one side announcing actual sales and the other announcing only projections, and numerous BD studio statements of continued exclusivity,

Ok, let's examine this "summary" of the CES events that somehow show Blu-ray a winner. Take 'em one at a time.

Quote:


the puzzling Universal non-announcement

Unless you know for a fact that Universal has ceased being exclusive for HD DVD or is in fact no longe rmaking releases, then this is as you said "puzzling". "Puzzling" in the debate world means nothing - no conclusion can be drawn and using it as an argument as to why Blu-ray is a winner is specious at best.

Quote:


HD-DVD's desperate attempt to get "50 GB" associated with their side

It may well have been a "desperate" attempt to remove part of the Blu-ray spec advantage, but the motive is pretty much irrelevant. As a PR move, it is strong, just as it always was for Blu-ray, and considering HD DVD's track record in delivering on promises, there is no reason to think that would not deliver on this. How much credit it gets toward making HD DVD a "winner" can be debated, but it certainly cannot be considered a plus for Blu-ray, as you seem to state.

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the numerous BD studio announcements of movie releases

Impressive, but not unexpected. Chalk up one for Blu-ray.

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no major studio switching to neutrality

Maintaining the status quo does not help make Blu-ray the winner. Of course, had there been a defection, then it would have helped HD DVD to be the winner.

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one side announcing actual sales and the other announcing only projections

It is impossible to imagine how this statement can be made in consideration of the Fox garbage. This does not even merit a response.

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numerous BD studio statements of continued exclusivity

Again no change to the status quo, but it still is positive for Blu-ray to see the re-affirmation of support. Chalk another one up for Blu-ray.

So in summary, Blu-ray got studio announcements of releases and exclusivity. At best, this was a positive CES for Blu-ray but nothing to change the Blu-ray dynamic going forward.

Now, what you left out.

. HD DVD has two MAJOR new CE's. This is huge since this was a major HD DVD shortcoming.

. Promises of Chinese players. This again is huge. HD DVD was introduced cheap and had a startling launch and it took Blu-ray until the end of the year to catch up using PS3 and BD50. Admittedly, Blu-ray is now operating on all cylinders. However, what will Blu-ray do to counter this NEW HD DVD onslaught of players?

. Promises of HD51 discs.

IMO, Blu-ray is fundamentally doing the same they have been doing and will continue to try to build on their momentum. I think that HD DVD had a modest victory against Blu-ray, mainly because they are pushing forward on their install base in important ways. Whether it is enough to turn the tide back against Blu-ray, as they did at the start, remains to be seen.
post #28 of 147
Thread Starter 
Quote:


I'll change the second question to "Can I watch James Bond in HD?". Content is king, and BD has the content. Only the most idiotic of consumer would buy any media player unless he knew what media he/she could play on it.

And those people are still not going to spend $500+ just to watch James Bond in HD. ESPECIALLY when a few months later they could simply wait and DVR it on Cable/Satellite in HD. You guys keep forgetting that right now this is an elite market with elite pricing and nowhere NEAR the J6P range.

THAT is why the new CE announcements on the HD DVD side are as important as the movie announcements on the BD side. Movies won't sell if you don't have the players out there to watch them with. And as long as $499 is your entry point, it's not going to grow like Fox thinks it will.


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Even if 1% of all PS3 users buy Blu-ray discs (and the number is likely nowhere NEAR that - probably closer to 10%), you're still talking about 10,000 blu-ray buyers in north america. it's pretty safe to assume that in the PS3's lifetime they'll manage to sell 10M units. this is 100,000 blu-ray players.

And the minute Lite-on puts out a $250 HD DVD standalone player, the $499 PS3 isn't going to look quite as appealing to the average Joe. And you'll see that ratio swing.

Price is going to do it.


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Why would the mass market buy into the format without any content?

You mean like DVD when Fox and Disney wouldn't support it? I believe price of DVD players turned that market around and forced the issue on both of them.
post #29 of 147
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Originally Posted by dylanneild View Post

HD-DVD's entry point is also $499. $199 for the 360 add-on implies adding at least $299 for a core system to make it work.

Lite-on is releasing a $250 HD-DVD player anytime soon? Damn, you're right... it's over. HD-DVD is going to win this for sure.

Oh wait... Lite-on isn't. And by the time they get close to $250, as things stand now, HD-DVD won't really be a market worth going after. What do you think Samsung or Sony or Panasonic are going to do in the meantime? NOT come out with cheaper players? Not likely. Samsung already has a 2G down $200 from their 1G. How much cheaper did Toshiba's 2G get? Oh, right... it didn't. And it actually got more expensive if you remember that you used to get 5.1 analog outputs for your $499.

Hmmm, funny, some people are getting the HD-A2 for as low as $379.
post #30 of 147
Thread Starter 
Quote:


HD-DVD's entry point is also $499. $199 for the 360 add-on implies adding at least $299 for a core system to make it work.

I love implications. Implication is much easier to spout than actual fact. And it makes the arguement sound relevant. I do not even want to re-hash the whole "sunk cost" arguement about the 360. That has been beaten down to death. I bought my Xbox 360 over a year ago. I didn't re-pay for it when I bought the add-on.


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Lite-on is releasing a $250 HD-DVD player anytime soon? Damn, you're right... it's over. HD-DVD is going to win this for sure.

If you slowed down to read, you'll notice I said "The minute", which means if.


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Oh wait... Lite-on isn't. And by the time they get close to $250, as things stand now, HD-DVD won't really be a market worth going after. What do you think Samsung or Sony or Panasonic are going to do in the meantime? NOT come out with cheaper players? Not likely. Samsung already has a 2G down $200 from their 1G. How much cheaper did Toshiba's 2G get? Oh, right... it didn't. And it actually got more expensive if you remember that you used to get 5.1 analog outputs for your $499.

Big deal, Samsung came down from $999 to $799. Let me run right out and buy one now. I don't need to make a mortgage payment this month. Give me a break.

Where is Samsung's $499 player again? Where's Panasonic's $499 player again? Exactly.

BTW, it might interest you to know Microsoft and Broadcom are working on the technology to lower the cost of HD DVD playback, which will lower the cost of future players. What is Samsung and Panasonic doing to lower their prices? The odds of one of these Chinese companies putting out a sub-$300 player far and away right now the odds of Samsung or Panasonic being able to do that. To think otherwise, I can't help you.

Oh, and if you don't care about analog output, then you can buy the lower priced player. If you want analog, pay more. That's what's called "being the consumer". See, that's what you on the Blu-ray side just continue not to understand. I didn't want to pay $499 to get a Blu-ray player. I didn't even want to pay $499 to get an HD DVD player. Good thing for me the Xbox 360 add-on was $199. Wala, my entry point into HD DVD.
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