Phillip Swann: No Winner at CES

With the puzzling Universal non-announcement, HD-DVD's desperate attempt to get "50 GB" associated with their side, the numerous BD studio announcements of movie releases, no major studio switching to neutrality, one side announcing actual sales and the other announcing only projections, and numerous BD studio statements of continued exclusivity, it's pretty clear who "won".

Yep, if you had to pick that somebody won, it would have to be HD DVD. New CE companies releasing HD DVD players to cover entry level to high-end players (from Venturer-Shinco, Alco, Lite-On, Onkyo, Meridian), a new $599 1080P HD DVD player from Toshiba, new TL discs, 300+ additional titles for 2007, BANDAI VISUAL announcing anime films for HD DVD (this has a HUGE following), I'd have to pick HD DVD for sure. Blu-Ray supporters spewed a lot of "market speak" in an effort to woo over potential fence-sitters, but the average joe doesn't go out looking for press releases. They're looking for good prices and quality titles, something that HD DVD has that will only get better.

What came out from the BD side other then ~30-40 new release dates over the next ~4 months? Did they do anything to push the format forward? I figure it's possible I might have missed something.

They've done nothing to push the Blu-Ray market forward, other than scramble to announce titles. It's the only real thing they could do, everything else was market-speak absurdity.

Well, let's not forget Fox's chart clearly showing Blu Ray beating HD DVD by 2012

yeah, gotta love the scare tactics. Doesn't surprise me what with alliwantforxmasisapsp.com and all the other Sony/Fox fud. Fortunately, ppl aren't that stupid

That's because they're all scrambling to convince themselves that: Additional HD DVD CE support isn't important, that lower-priced HD DVD players for the mass market isn't important, that 300+ new HD DVD titles isn't important, that anime titles from Bandai isn't important, that the porn industry isn't important, and franky that all good news for HD DVD is some how unimportant.

If they all say it to each other long enough, maybe they'll start to feel warm and fuzzy. Until reality hits.

To each their own.

I'm not really a fan of his, but I think it was a reasonable article. Also, as far as having a winner or not, it looked clear to me that he was saying that we don't have a winner for the format war from CES, which I think any reasonable person would agree on. As far as which side did better at CES, I didn't see him clearly address that and I think his point that there will still be a war going on at CES 2008 is probably true. I think it is likely that things will be more clear then, but doubt one side will fold before then.

--Darin

You guys do realise that the average consumer has no idea what CES even is! Until I started reading this forum, I didn't care what is was and I've been doing HD since 1997.

No one cares, and by next week no one, except us, will even remember what happened.

What will matter is when the low cost players start hitting the shelves at BB and CC and especially Walmart. Then we will see the numbers of real players become even more lopsided than they are now in favor of HD DVD. By then there will be an additional 100 titles on the shelves to go with the already 150 titles and that my friends is real choice. Not a graph that predicts moving ahead in 1010!

Yep!

Exactly: price advantage. This war has already been won by HD DVD the day they announced the lower production costs for their tech. But Blu-Ray supporters believe that J6P is going to look to some "studio support list" on the web before going to BB. Maybe they are reading too much AVS...

You are talking to a guy who actually voted to say initial BD releases were better than HD DVD

After CES, I noticed at least 7000-10000 people from the HD DVD side go to Blu-ray on AVS. I didn't see a single Blu-ray guy move to HD DVD.

Edited: For more accurate number.

HD DVD trolls make me want to buy them diapers.

Can you list them? Not that it matters, really... You might want to omit nyg, though, he changes sides more often than Rosie O'Donnell goes to Krispy Kreme.

you do know you're gonna have to back that up right? is it 7 or 10? Who, names, SNs? And how do you know not a single BD person went neutral? sounds unfalsifiable

Not according to the poll.

And name the people who switched ...

7-10 people? Hell, HD DVD might as well close the doors now. Isn't that the same number of people that actually own a BR player?

Once they realize that Blu-Ray supporters basically said nothing except "blah blah blah" and that HD DVD did in fact make some very SIGNIFICANT announcements, they'll be back. It is inevitable, Mr. Eightninesuited!

the hd-dvd die-hards on this forum are hilarious, but kind of sad at the same time. reading the desperation in their posts is morbidly fascinating.

this new reliance on unheard of chinese companies manufacuring hardware that no store in the US would ever dream of stocking is a turn in their logic so crazy, its gotta be genuine. i couldn't make this stuff up if i tried.

have any chinese companies actually even said anything? much less given a price?

Keep convincing yourself, it's ok. You'll come around eventually.


Yes they sure can. My kids don't care about whether the movie is on DVD or in some high definition format. They just wanna see the dang movie!

Certainly, the Blu-Ray supporters on this forum read about titles being announced and all smile as if they're all in one big group hug because they're thinking Blu-Ray title announcements = a sure win, but this is shortsightedness. In order to sell the titles, they need people they can sell them to, and once HD DVD delivers numerous dedicated players to market HD DVD will grow at an exponential pace. Blu-Ray, on the other hand, will still have relatively few dedicated players and a base of PS3 owners who MIGHT buy a few titles, and I suspect the vast majority will purchase very few Blu-Ray titles. HD DVD has the vision they need to succeed, and they're making excellent progress. It is only a matter of time.

Uh, no. It's not important to me, and upconversion on my HTPC rivals the XA2 I'm sure.


Content is king? What if you've got the "content" but the mass market doesn't buy into the format? Then what? HD DVD has the momentum to introduce inexpensive HD DVD players that the average consumer can afford and WILL buy. THIS is what will sell content, and HD DVD has fantastic content right now with another 300 titles being released this year. BD exclusive studios will eventually be releasing on HD DVD, just as they did when they were DIVX exclusive. And yes, I can wait.

I am sure we will revisit this a year from now, and you will be quite impressed I'm sure at just how strong HD DVD has become. Once the snowball gets rolling, it grows very quickly.

Ok, let's examine this "summary" of the CES events that somehow show Blu-ray a winner. Take 'em one at a time.


Unless you know for a fact that Universal has ceased being exclusive for HD DVD or is in fact no longe rmaking releases, then this is as you said "puzzling". "Puzzling" in the debate world means nothing - no conclusion can be drawn and using it as an argument as to why Blu-ray is a winner is specious at best.


It may well have been a "desperate" attempt to remove part of the Blu-ray spec advantage, but the motive is pretty much irrelevant. As a PR move, it is strong, just as it always was for Blu-ray, and considering HD DVD's track record in delivering on promises, there is no reason to think that would not deliver on this. How much credit it gets toward making HD DVD a "winner" can be debated, but it certainly cannot be considered a plus for Blu-ray, as you seem to state.


Impressive, but not unexpected. Chalk up one for Blu-ray.


Maintaining the status quo does not help make Blu-ray the winner. Of course, had there been a defection, then it would have helped HD DVD to be the winner.


It is impossible to imagine how this statement can be made in consideration of the Fox garbage. This does not even merit a response.


Again no change to the status quo, but it still is positive for Blu-ray to see the re-affirmation of support. Chalk another one up for Blu-ray.

So in summary, Blu-ray got studio announcements of releases and exclusivity. At best, this was a positive CES for Blu-ray but nothing to change the Blu-ray dynamic going forward.

Now, what you left out.

. HD DVD has two MAJOR new CE's. This is huge since this was a major HD DVD shortcoming.

. Promises of Chinese players. This again is huge. HD DVD was introduced cheap and had a startling launch and it took Blu-ray until the end of the year to catch up using PS3 and BD50. Admittedly, Blu-ray is now operating on all cylinders. However, what will Blu-ray do to counter this NEW HD DVD onslaught of players?

. Promises of HD51 discs.

IMO, Blu-ray is fundamentally doing the same they have been doing and will continue to try to build on their momentum. I think that HD DVD had a modest victory against Blu-ray, mainly because they are pushing forward on their install base in important ways. Whether it is enough to turn the tide back against Blu-ray, as they did at the start, remains to be seen.

Hmmm, funny, some people are getting the HD-A2 for as low as $379.