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How many real people are going to pay 2x premium for HD media?

post #1 of 10
Thread Starter 
With everybody talking about how cheap the HD players are getting I can't help but ask what is going to happen with media prices. It seems that you have to pay 2-2.5x for HD titles over SD. I know that a lot of people on AVS will buy at those prices, but the masses? I know that gap is much smaller with new titles and I can see good business for studios. I'm just wondering how much the studios plan on charging for HD media when the DVD versions are usually at $10 or less.
post #2 of 10
Not many. I don't think 2nd or 3rd gen adopters will pay maore than a couple of bucks for the HD version. J6P will not pay more ...

Extending this to players, how much more will they pay for a HiDef DVD player ?

I'd say no more than $100. So, if most people now expect to pay $100 or less for a DVD player, they won't pay more than $200 for a hidef dvd player.
post #3 of 10
Looks like the studios and CE vendors have their work cut out for them.

I think $200 is the magic pricepoint for players and the media needs to settle in to

$19.98-24.98 for a vast majority of titles.

DVD looks a little too good for consumers to spend much more on a wide scale IMO.
post #4 of 10
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

$19.98-24.98 for a vast majority of titles.
IMO.

I dropped into BB the other day to try out "The Thing" on HD DVD. I saw the $25 price tag and wandered over to the DVD isle where it was $10. There was no way I was going to even try to justify with my wife the price of the HD version. The SD DVD looked pretty good with the HD-A1. I later got the HD DVD version from Netflix. Sure it was better, but if I had to do it again would I pay 2.5x? Don't think so.
post #5 of 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by miata View Post

I dropped into BB the other day to try out "The Thing" on HD DVD. I saw the $25 price tag and wandered over to the DVD isle where it was $10. There was no way I was going to even try to justify with my wife the price of the HD version. The SD DVD looked pretty good with the HD-A1. I later got the HD DVD version from Netflix. Sure it was better, but if I had to do it again would I pay 2.5x? Don't think so.

This is the crux of the issue isn't??PRICE...so, when JSP can get a $199.00 hd dvd player the media will also be lower.....like say when it's a new release movie it could be 18.99 and 19.99...then after a week or so go to 24.99 and up...
post #6 of 10
When DVD first came out I was paying $20 for Warner discs, $25 for Columbia discs, and $30-35 for Universal discs. BDs are priced pretty comparatively so I have no complaints. Not that I wouldn't be happy to pay less. Prices will come down as the format matures just as it did with DVD.
post #7 of 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by miata View Post

I dropped into BB the other day to try out "The Thing" on HD DVD. I saw the $25 price tag and wandered over to the DVD isle where it was $10. There was no way I was going to even try to justify with my wife the price of the HD version. The SD DVD looked pretty good with the HD-A1. I later got the HD DVD version from Netflix. Sure it was better, but if I had to do it again would I pay 2.5x? Don't think so.

Yup, you can get many of those HD-DVD and Blu-ray titles for much cheaper on DVD.

The moral of the story is :

Don't bring your wife with you to BB.
post #8 of 10
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by deez View Post

This is the crux of the issue isn't??PRICE...so, when JSP can get a $199.00 hd dvd player the media will also be lower.....like say when it's a new release movie it could be 18.99 and 19.99...then after a week or so go to 24.99 and up...

My real concern is not so much new titles where the price gap between SD and HD is not so great. I'm just wondering if there is a business model to motivate studios to press all those catalog titles to HD media. The big collectors will already have purchased the SD version. I think is is only going to be the hot classics that people will "double dip" for that will be converted to HD. The remainer may likely stay SD DVD only. I think this transition might be slightly different than the one from VHS to DVD.
post #9 of 10
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snickering Hound View Post

The moral of the story is :

Don't bring your wife with you to BB.

Well, it is a little too late now. She saw the $30 price on the King Kong HD DVD and that was a double dip. I can only help prevent my friends from making a similar mistake.
post #10 of 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by miata View Post

My real concern is not so much new titles where the price gap between SD and HD is not so great. I'm just wondering if there is a business model to motivate studios to press all those catalog titles to HD media.

The big collectors will already have purchased the SD version. I think is is only going to be the hot classics that people will "double dip" for that will be converted to HD. The remainer may likely stay SD DVD only. I think this transition might be slightly different than the one from VHS to DVD.

Exactly, It's the software prices that are the big issue for HD optical. New DVD's are not too far away from *some* of the new HD costs but DVD's quickly get very cheap once they are no longer new releases.

This is one reason it could ultimately be a loss to us as consumers if no combo format ever reaches critical mass. The combo format while hated for it's early price points is probably the best chance for HD to ever really catch up to standard DVD.
The 'trojan horse' strategy may be needed more for the software than it is for the hardware. Combos could sneak the software into the market by getting included in with DVDs.

If BD defeats HD-DVD can it then defeat DVD by getting J6P to replace all of his software and hardware? It's took quite a while for DVD to pass up VHS and get to the point where DVD's are now so widely available at low prices .

Unfortunately the economics of combos/twin disks may never allow to them to move from early adopter prices to mainstream volumes which is the only way it would make sense for a studio to lower the costs on combo/twin disks.
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