Shhhhh. Last year it was, "quantity," and "content is king," so "that's why HD DVD's gonna win!" Now, when quantity and content isn't there, the argument shifts to, "HD DVD doesn't need lots of titles in lots of genres to win, it just needs a few great titles!"
Because the argument isn't about the reason, but about the bias. Anyone with sense would want more titles on their format. And in fact, most of these individuals do want more titles, they just don't want to be beholden to Sony.
The truth is the only exclusives worth caring about are those from Universal (as the rest will come to Blu-ray too) and those that Universal's announced so far aren't exactly King Kong-level.
Even King Kong wasn't all that great.
Unless Universal pops out a Back to the Future or three on HD DVD, BD's going to win the content war this year. It's funny how quickly the tide has turned, but it's obvious that it really was the PS3 that turned it. The studios waited for the PS3, the PS3 came, Blu-ray sales picked up, and titles began to flood out the floodgates. Quality had improved and titles truly taking advantage of the format's advantages are beginning to appear.
Unless Toshiba and Microsoft can convince someone neutral to go exclusively HD DVD, I think the war's over in a year. Maybe a little more. With the sheer title advantage in Blu-ray's favor, even the consumers will make their choice based on the size of the blue section versus the red when the blue is three times as big as the red. When aisle space comes a premium, which format will Best Buy prefer? The one with the large catalogue or keeping two, one that has the large catalogue and one that doesn't? Best Buy will want the one that is bigger.
I'll still play my HD DVD's and hopefully on a Toshiba HD-A3 if they can manage to produce a player that has the speed of a PS3 with the reliability of a PS3. Oh, and with the silence of a PS3. And the codec support, too. And the price.
Or Microsoft could release a 360 with HDMI support (including audio) that has the superior playback of the add-on with HDMI audio (TrueHD) support of a genuine HD DVD player. Either/or.