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Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 5  

post #121 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by JBCricket View Post

What would happen if Microsoft started building Xbox 360 with the HD-DVD drive built in and kept the retail price the same as it is today?

They will manage to piss off the 10M people who paid good money for a console that doesn't have this feature.

Moreover, a built-in HD-DVD drive would greatly increase the negative cost of the machine for practically no returns, as their videogames cannot be released on HD-DVD discs -- unless they want to trash their architecture and start from scratch.
post #122 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

Let's see when Sony can make some money off this. Also, I'm hoping Home Media Magazine continues to put out Videoscan sales data so we can track the progress. Right now, this data shows huge momentum for BD.

Press release from BDA about this soon?

It really doesn't matter. Sony is in this for the long haul and the absolute rosiest predictions are that they won't make money on PS3 until 2010. Believe me, they are more than happy to hemhorage cash until that time because if they win it means billions over the next 15 years as the dominant optical storage medium used in everything from PCs to game consoles all of which they get a royalty for.
post #123 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

My point is that you gotta have a business model that works:

1. IF PS3 is a game console then you need to make money by selling games. So far, it does not seem Sony is really doing that.

2. IF the PS3 is a video player then Sony needs to make money off of the hardware, since the margin on BD movies are probably very slim - if any at all.

3. IF it is both. Then the subsidy on the player needs to be smaller than a game only device since it is expected that x% of consoles will be used primarily as a video player and hence will have a lower game attachment rate.

4. IF Sony is able to subsidize a game console as a video player since their margin on movies is high. Then it is total craziness for any hardware vendor to sign up for BD! How do they make money??

5. IF you are a movie studio and you know that the primary hardware is a subsizied player where the vendor is hoping to make money out of royalties, what does it do from a pricing perspective? Games cost $60, will movie prices also approach that?

I am not sure how things are rosier with BD for Sony? Price competition is going to get more aggressive, not less. Would people buy BD movies IF they cost 2x and HD DVD one? We already know people won't buy players that cost 2x as much....so where is the money (profits going to come from?) Will Sony continue to subsidize hardware and software until HD DVD goes away? Will HD DVD go away, if they are aware of this achilles heel?

I guess we haven't seen the end of the game yet. Let's see how the next Q turns out for Sony. No holiday buying, no yen depreciation, with 4x as many PS3 consoles....If they show profit growth and cut losses in their game division, I'll admit it's all rosey for sony

Neither of us are Sony execs. with access to real numbers and their plan for profitability. I suspect the long term outlook for BD is good enough for them to subsidize the PS3 in order to win this war, otherwise they would not have likely gone down that road. No multi billion dollar company aims to lose money just for spite. Not even Sony.
post #124 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by briankmonkey View Post

excellent post

And Toshiba has been in the electronics business for how long? Am I confused or did Toshiba not have something to do with the creation of the DVD standard.

Insisting that Sony will somehow win automatically because of their CE legacy is basically a jab that Toshiba doesn't know jack about the CE business.

Is that the premise? I have a feeling that Toshiba wouldn't gamble billions of Yen on something that had a high percentage chance of failure.

Toshiba's best option at this point is getting the lowest cost HD decks out possible and trying to achieve format neutrality with solutions like Warner THD.
post #125 of 9375
If it's true that the PS3 is being used for movies more than games, I believe the Sony execs are quite concerned.
While I understand the PS3 was meant to be an all encompassing product, it is first and foremost a gaming platform, and it appears the games may be what is hurting the PS3. The number of titles is down, and the wii is a more popular option.
With Sony taking a $128 hit on every PS3, it might take much longer to turn a profit than they ever expected.
To counter the poor sales, Sony is considering a price cut on the PS3.
While I agree this would be awesome news for consumers looking to get an affordable BD player, it could also spell disaster.
post #126 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

Even on slim margins, the volume makes up for it. This whole format wars isn't about who gets to manufacture the hardware. It's about who gets to collect the royalty checks. Sony doesn't need to make money off the PS3 as a video player, they only need to make sure that BD becomes the standard. After that point, it doesn't matter who makes the products, they'll get their checks through the IP.

Agreed
post #127 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

Let's see when Sony can make some money off this. Also, I'm hoping Home Media Magazine continues to put out Videoscan sales data so we can track the progress. Right now, this data shows huge momentum for BD.

Press release from BDA about this soon?

If I were them, I'd keep a low profile and start gloating only after Casino Royale is out. There are times where it pays off to be modest
post #128 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

Not so fast though. Although the percentage who own a game may indeed by higher than the percentage that own a movie, I'd say that among those that own BD films, they've bought many more movies for the system thus far than they have games. Myself - 2 games, 13 movies.

I think the PS3 has sold more films than games by far up until now, among those that bought it for movies alone and gamers both.

Nice!
post #129 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

We'll see

So you're saying if Sony wins this format war, they're going to bankrupt from subsidizing the PS3?
post #130 of 9375
Lot of chickens being counted here.

The PS3 has just had its Xmas sales surge, HD A2s are just hitting the streets, ,there been a dearth of HD DVD releases, HD DVD PRG and Toshiba are just starting promotion and advertising and will don't know long term PS3 attach rates will sustain.

The trend is good for Blu-ray here in January sales , but its just been a short term phenomena.
post #131 of 9375
I'm crying on the inside
post #132 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by Azumi View Post

They will manage to piss off the 10M people who paid good money for a console that doesn't have this feature.

Actually that is available to all 10 millions users today that want that option through the add-on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Azumi View Post

Moreover, a built-in HD-DVD drive would greatly increase the negative cost of the machine for practically no returns, as their videogames cannot be released on HD-DVD discs -- unless they want to trash their architecture and start from scratch.

Actually the current DVD drive could be swapped out for DVD/HD-DVD drive with a couple of screws and the existing cables. With no architecture changes and offer the same game and movie playback in one integrated package. I believe Microsoft will release a new HD premium version of the 360 with HD-DVD support and HDMI built-in to be able to compete with Apple and Sony for the living room. It is the next logical step just a matter of when.
post #133 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

At least one can't blame Universal and Warner for this. Appears the Sony delivered enough PS3 to control losses in their gaming division to an acceptable level, while ensuring that BD takes control of the format battle.

In my books 75% market share is the magic number at which the other format goes away. I believe one reason Warner could be waiting is to see if BD can indeed get upto the 75% mark by June.

It is also remarkable that dvdempire results were so in line with Videoscan. Perhaps, they ARE reporting videoscan results on their site. For the first and second weeks of Jan, the Videocan numbers reported by Grubert almost mirror dvdempire. It's also interesting that like Grubert's numbers, even dvd empire is using % share.

Anyway. I'd assume that the BDA will use it for their case, if these numbers are verifiable and true. Which I still don't know


But if it's 75% of *5% total market share (including DVD sales), then what does it really mean? I still say that price will be the ultimate predictor.

*Simply a guess

I know that many here were trumpeting HD-DVD's victory with blah-de-duh-dah-dah sales ratio to Bluray, but we were sampling but a tiny percentage of the market then, and we still are. IMO, no real winner will appear until these units are affordable.
post #134 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

That would be a relevent point if the question were "does the PS3 have a bigger effect on gaming or movies?" But that wasn't the question.

He made the statement that a greater number of PS3 owners thought of the PS3 as a movie player first and a game console second. The people who bought it for movies may well have bought more movies than the people who bought it for games did games, but that is irrelevent. The gross number of people who bought it primarily as a movies player vs. the number who bought it primarily as a game console is all that matters, for this conversation. Even if the gamers were casual buyers, while the movie watchers were intense buyers, it wouldn't matter.

I know I didn't do a good job of explaining that, but hopefully you can see what I mean. For the purposes of this discussion, it wouldn't matter how many movies you bought. You are either a person who sees the PS3 as primarily a game machine, or a person who see it as primarily a movie machine.

I got behind here. Had to take a call. You know, that whole... work thing gets in the way of my AVS time. So I hope I'm not repeating.

I believe the great majority of movie buffs AND gamers have bought more movies than games for the simple reason of availability.

That will change, true, but more PS3s will be sold to counter the lost attach rate.
post #135 of 9375
Q1 07 is a bad Q for HD DVD. The Brits at Dunkirk.....
post #136 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by Azumi View Post

They will manage to piss off the 10M people who paid good money for a console that doesn't have this feature.

Moreover, a built-in HD-DVD drive would greatly increase the negative cost of the machine for practically no returns, as their videogames cannot be released on HD-DVD discs -- unless they want to trash their architecture and start from scratch.


The HD-DVD add-on will read DVD's won't it? If it does, then that means the drive could still be used to read DVD-based games. That wouldn't fracture the market at all. It might give some people an excuse to upgrade to 360 Super Duty model though.
post #137 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by DigitalfreakNYC View Post

Great.

So that means we'll be stuck with extra-less (or near extra-less) overpriced BD discs?

This still means nothing because the general public doesn't care.

I don't care about extras. Also, I don't feel that BDs are overpriced at all. All of them are priced comparably with DVD prices back in '98. Fox and Disney charged more back then too. Still, this is 9 years later... usually the prices for things go up... we're getting far superior technology for the same prices (some are actually less!).
post #138 of 9375
The xob360 without the add-on will read DVDs....won't it?
post #139 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by blueenergy View Post

Actually the current DVD drive could be swapped out for DVD/HD-DVD drive with a couple of screws and the existing cables. With no architecture changes and offer the same game and movie playback in one integrated package. I believe Microsoft will release a new HD premium version of the 360 with HD-DVD support and HDMI built-in to be able to compete with Apple and Sony for the living room. It is the next logical step just a matter of when.

WTF are you on! It is a lot more than just a drive change, the X360 was made for DVD, the architecture was built around it, any change to HD DVD will take a lot more than just a drive change. Add this to the fact that they would have to give 10m (expensive) HD DVD drives out for free if they had a retrofit program and made games on HD DVD.

They may release an update on the X360, but more than likely it will only be for a bigger HDD and HDMI.
post #140 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

Not long. Consumers looked at it and most thought it was the most ridiculous premise they had ever heard.

I think the war could be over "soon" as in late 2008. That's my definition of soon. If people think it'll be over in 2007 that's preposterous. This year is more jockeying for position and getting more players/media into homes. Consumer critical mass hasn't been reached by any stretch.

You're missing my point. Joe Sixpack didn't decide the DVD/DIVX war. What makes you so certain he'll decide the BD/HD DVD war? Chances are great that it'll be over before he even takes notice of the fact that high def discs exist.
post #141 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

Q1 07 is a bad Q for HD DVD. The Brits at Dunkirk.....

First month of Q1 is bad (edit: horrible). The entire Q1 failure on the HD DVD camp part remains to be seen. However this should be a major wake up call.....especially for it's championed studio "Universal".
post #142 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by D-Nice View Post

Wait a minute. YTD means 2007 not 2006 thru 2007 right? IF YTD means 2007 (which it should) why wouldn't BD be ahead in sales? What was the ratio of movie releases this month?

See "Since Inception"
post #143 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

Q1 07 is a bad Q for HD DVD. The Brits at Dunkirk.....

err... its not even through the first month of three yet.....

You guys always celebrate at the end of the first quarter?
post #144 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark0 View Post

If it's true that the PS3 is being used for movies more than games, I believe the Sony execs are quite concerned.
While I understand the PS3 was meant to be an all encompassing product, it is first and foremost a gaming platform, and it appears the games may be what is hurting the PS3. The number of titles is down, and the wii is a more popular option.
With Sony taking a $128 hit on every PS3, it might take much longer to turn a profit than they ever expected.
To counter the poor sales, Sony is considering a price cut on the PS3.
While I agree this would be awesome news for consumers looking to get an affordable BD player, it could also spell disaster.

Uh, yeah...

I kindly ask that all the amateur financial predictions please be kept to a minimum. Mark0 believe me when I say that Sony doesn't care *what* you're buying the PS3 for at this moment, so long as it entails either Blu-ray and/or game sales.

Sony can handle the gaming losses - this quarter proves that without a shadow of a doubt.

("Poor sales," good god is there no escape from this reasoning?)
post #145 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

See "Since Inception"

I have. ANd common sense would tell you that no one would purchase hardware if they can't see (in the near future) any new software. SI still favors HD DVD. Next year this time, I still see the SI looking pretty much the same except BD being in favor.
post #146 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

err... its not even through the first month of three yet.....

You guys always celebrate at the end of the first quarter?

Predictions and signs show Blu Ray will widen the gap through the first Q1. The 'celebration' would be much grander in a month or two.
post #147 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

You guys always celebrate at the end of the first quarter?

But either way, what Blu-ray essentially completely caught up to HD DVD in sales in a very short amount of time... whatever else happens from here, even is this alone were the news story (and not the heavily Blu-ray slanted present sales), it would be a huge one.
post #148 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

That's not going to happen. The same could be said for Fox/Disney/Columbia. There's no evidence to support the notion that Universal is feeling any internal pressure. This foray isn't a money making venture at this point. The studios are probably breaking even on most titles if not under water.

"Univerals is going neutral" is a Blu-ray yank fantasy. It's not going to happen in 2007. Just as HD DVD fans probably realize the BD exclusive studios are not coming across either.

I have to laugh anytime someone says "when Universal goes Blu" someone feels compelled to say "same could happen with Fox and Disney." Talk about living in fantasyland!
post #149 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark0 View Post

If it's true that the PS3 is being used for movies more than games, I believe the Sony execs are quite concerned.

Availability.

There are loads more movies available right now than games and they cost less than half. Gamers can get Resitance and a few movies and wait 'til the good stuff comes out. Also remeber that many PS3 owners likely have 360s and already own the 360 versions of many of the games out right now, and, unfortunately for sony, also to come in the near future, for PS3.
post #150 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by D-Nice View Post

Next year this time, I still see the SI looking pretty much the same except BD being in favor.

More like this time next month at the rate things are going.

It went from 86:100 to 93:100 in a single week!
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