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Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 55  

post #1621 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by fa8362 View Post

It's not an "average", it's the sales ranking of the top 100 discs. It would be computed the same way they compute the ranking for a single disc or the top 10 discs. "Average" is your terminology, since you seem to think they just averaged the rankings of the top 100 discs.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

You still don't seem to get how it works. It is an average sales ranking for those top 100. What do you think a number of 4100 means? Do you think that is a rank of 4100 compared to groupings of 100 other titles? Do you think the number for the top 100 is computed with a different methodology than the number for top 10? Add up the individual rankings for the top 10 and then divide by 10 and you get the number they give there for the graph of the top 10. Do you see that?

--Darin
post #1622 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

Not to beat a dead horse, but here is where we(I) messed up:

It's not a 1% increase in market share. It was a 37% increase in market share for the week. (68.8/31). The fact that it was greater or lessor than the previous week's market share is irrelevent for this purpose. 37% greater sales in that week resulted in a 1.6% change in the sales ratio since inception.

I'm fully with you on that, but could someone please explain how the SI could go up by 1.6% while the YTD only goes up .6%?
post #1623 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

Before I forget. Videoscan are not extrapolating their HD DVD and BD sales data. The numbers being reported by Videoscan are the numbers as reported by their sources with no extrapolation. I was under the assumption they extrapolated. But they do not. So that's one thing.

Amazon, Wal-Mart and most internet sites are NOT part of Videoscan data. So, when you say that the internet sales is factored into Videoscan. It is not. AFAIK, the only internet sites that provide data to Videoscan are the B&M sites that provide them data. So Bestbuy.com and circuitcity.com would be sources.

Given their low peneration in the internet sales channel, we need to factor that into their published numbers....

I don't know if anyone posted this or not, but Amazon.com is very much a part of VideoScan data. Wal-Mart is not.

I think we can put this "Amazon not included" misinformation to rest.

I received a couple of documents from VideoScan with the full list. However, each document is too big to attach here. Here is the partial list of retailers (less than 3% of the full list). These are all covered under their "First Alert" service:
Discount Mass Merchants:
BI-MART
KMART (INCL. SUPERCENTERS)
ROSE'S
SHOPKO
PAMIDA
TARGET

Other Mass Merchants:
AAFES
AMAZON.COM
AOL.COM
BEST BUY
BORDERS.COM
BUY.COM
CD NOW/CDNOW.COM
CIRCUIT CITY/CIRCUITCITY.COM
COSTCO
EURPAC
GAIAM
SPRING HOUSE/GAITHERS
TOWERRECORDS.COM
TOYSRUS.COM
VIDEOUNIVERSE.COM
VIRGINMEGA.COM
WESTWOOD PROMOTION
WHEREHOUSE.COM
post #1624 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by fa8362 View Post

It's not an "average", it's the sales ranking of the top 100 discs. It would be computed the same way they compute the ranking for a single disc or the top 10 discs. "Average" is your terminology, since you seem to think they just averaged the rankings of the top 100 discs.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

No it's not.
post #1625 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

Actually, it's possible as Grubert shows

I made an error....

Alright, I'm looking back. Be with you in a minute.
post #1626 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

Actually, it's possible as Grubert shows

I made an error....

The weekly vs. YTD/SI issue was never a problem for me. I didn't see Grubert explain how SI could go up more than YTD. Can you show me what post this was answered in?
post #1627 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

I'm fully with you on that, but could someone please explain how the SI could go up by 1.6% while the YTD only goes up .6%?

Not sure if this helps, but if you look at:

01/21 67.8/32.2 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 68.8/31.2 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3

the YTD numbers were already pretty close to the weekly numbers, meaning their percentage change is likely to be small. In other words, the YTD was 66.4 for Blu-ray and the next week ended up being 68.8. The new YTD closed .6 out of a gap of 2.4, or about 1/4th of that distance. The SI was 23.7 away (68.8-45.1), and there a change of 1.6 is only 1/15th of that distance. Doesn't seem unreasonable.

One thing to consider in the above is that if the weekly numbers stay at some value (like 68.8/31.2) then both the YTD and SI will approach them over time, but the closer they are, the less they will close in general.

--Darin
post #1628 of 9375
For the Record,


Here are the individual ranking's of the top 10 BD's

1. 24
2. 45
3. 132
4. 231
5. 246
6. 349
7. 547
8. 644
9. 693
10. 745

Those individual rankings total to 3656.


Anyone care to take a guess on what the "Top 10" rank is at eproducts?
post #1629 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

The weekly vs. YTD/SI issue was never a problem for me. I didn't see Grubert explain how SI could go up more than YTD. Can you show me what post this was answered in?

Nevermind. Got it. It's kind of a trip. Should've been looking at YTD as more like the weekly in its effect.
post #1630 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

Not sure if this helps, but if you look at:

01/21 67.8/32.2 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 68.8/31.2 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3

the YTD numbers were already pretty close to the weekly numbers, meaning their percentage change is likely to be small. In other words, the YTD was 66.4 for Blu-ray and the next week ended up being 68.8. The new YTD closed .6 out of a gap of 2.4, or about 1/4th of that distance. The SI was 23.7 away (68.8-45.1), and there a change of 1.6 is only 1/15th of that distance. Doesn't seem unreasonable.

It does, thanks.

Quote:


One thing to consider in the above is that if the weekly numbers stay at some value (like 68.8/31.2) then both the YTD and SI will approach them over time, but the closer they are, the less they will close in general.

--Darin

This part I understood before. Must've had a brain fart on the former.
post #1631 of 9375
I found this post in another thread to be very interesting:

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1895,2093290,00.asp

MAKING SENSE OF THE Hi Def DVD NUMBERS

John Dvorak in PC Mag
post #1632 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam View Post

I found this post in another thread to be very interesting:

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1895,2093290,00.asp

MAKING SENSE OF THE Hi Def DVD NUMBERS

John Dvorak in PC Mag

This was already posted many days ago. Go back to page 45 or so.
post #1633 of 9375
Quote:


Originally Posted by fa8362
It's not an "average", it's the sales ranking of the top 100 discs. It would be computed the same way they compute the ranking for a single disc or the top 10 discs. "Average" is your terminology, since you seem to think they just averaged the rankings of the top 100 discs.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

That is incorrect, Skogan is right, it is the average on the "Salesrank of the top xx product charts"

Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

For the Record,
Here are the individual ranking's of the top 10 BD's

1. 24
2. 45
3. 132
4. 231
5. 246
6. 349
7. 547
8. 644
9. 693
10. 745

Those individual rankings total to 3656.


Anyone care to take a guess on what the "Top 10" rank is at eproducts?

err ....365.6

Which by coincidence is the average of all 10 rankings? or 3656/10.

Thats the way it works for the "Salesrank of the top 25 (and 100) products" charts as well.
post #1634 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by fa8362 View Post

"Average" is your terminology, since you seem to think they just averaged the rankings of the top 100 discs.

That's exactly what they do.
post #1635 of 9375
Quote:


http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1895,2093290,00.asp

MAKING SENSE OF THE Hi Def DVD NUMBERS

By Mark Hachman not John Dvorak
post #1636 of 9375
My first thought was that we should forgive fa8362 because he is a new member and didn't know what many of us have learned long ago: If you disagree with Darin, you are probably wrong. Being a December 06 member, he probably wasn't aware of that axiom yet.

But I've came to the conclusion that he was manufacturing facts to support his arguments, and then acting a indignant with anyone who was skeptical. Therefore, he probably should be marked as someone who doesn't argue honestly. But out of prudence, maybe I'll give him another chance
post #1637 of 9375
The new issue of Home Media Mag is up and I haven't found a new graphic of the BD vs. HD-DVD Videoscan numbers. Anyone else given it a look yet ??

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom021107/

Edit: Found it.. see attached

b2b
LL
post #1638 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by b2bonez View Post

The new issue of Home Media Mag is up and I haven't found a new graphic of the BD vs. HD-DVD Videoscan numbers. Anyone else given it a look yet ??

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom021107/

b2b

Page 3.
post #1639 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by b2bonez View Post

The new issue of Home Media Mag is up and I haven't found a new graphic of the BD vs. HD-DVD Videoscan numbers. Anyone else given it a look yet ??

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom021107/

b2b

Page 3 has the 1/28 figures.
post #1640 of 9375
While I expected a bigger jump due to sales of "Saw III" on Blu-Ray in the YTD section, the jump from 82.3 to 87.76 is quite a big jump!!

~Alan
post #1641 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Gordon View Post

While I expected a bigger jump due to sales of "Saw III" on Blu-Ray in the YTD section, the jump from 82.3 to 87.76 is quite a big jump!!

~Alan

What was it the Universal bigwig said in his "never say never" about supporting Blu-ray ??

60% sales advantage for six months or 80% for three months. I guess that means if BD can keep up the 2 to 1 sales ratio lead for another 5 months Uni might be changing their plans..

b2b
post #1642 of 9375
Quote:


.... if BD can keep up the 2 to 1 sales ratio lead for another 5 months...

Kinda a big if...

hatching .....before..... chickens .....counting.....
post #1643 of 9375
Something that I haven't seen discussed is the rental equation. I would certainly assume that Netflix and BB's purchases are not included in any of the sales rankings that we are discussing, yet I think the rental market could play an important role and may not jive with the numbers discussed here.

Here's why...

The PS3.

1. Obviously the biggest selling HD optical player by far.

2. Adoption rates are, again, obviously not what they would be for any standalone.

3. I think it stands to reason that PS3 owners are of a more "fair weathered" sort, not die-hard movie fans like HD DVD owners. But what they may do a fair amount of, since it costs them no more than SD, is rent. And if this overwhelming number of PS3 (vs. standalone) owners do anything BD a fair amount, it is significant.

Isn't the rental market important to DVD? Do the studios not make loads of money in the rental market? Why would the rental market not be important to HD optical?

Now the online rental availabilities have been atrocious, but the demand is obviously there for both sides. Just wish I knew which had more demand. I haven't checked recently, can anyone say whether or not Netflix and BB have gotten their act together yet?

I'm guessing somebody knows the answer to this and I'm guessing they think it's important too.


P.S. Could the discrepancy we've seen in shipped vs. sold be due to the rentals being counted as shipped? Add to that the numbers in the hundreds that Amazon apparently keeps on hand. And how many are stored in the back of Wal-Marts, CCs and BBs?
post #1644 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Kinda a big if...

hatching .....before..... chickens .....counting.....

Yeah and don't forget all those exclusive "titles" HD DVD has coming vs. the paltry few of BD.
post #1645 of 9375
Thread Starter 
Initial post updated.
post #1646 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Something that I haven't seen discussed is the rental equation. I would certainly assume that Netflix and BB's purchases are not included in any of the sales rankings that we are discussing, yet I think the rental market could play an important role and may not jive with the numbers discussed here.

Here's why...

The PS3.

1. Obviously the biggest selling HD optical player by far.

2. Adoption rates are, again, obviously not what they would be for any standalone.

3. I think it stands to reason that PS3 owners are of a more "fair weathered" sort, not die-hard movie fans like HD DVD owners. But what they may do a fair amount of, since it costs them no more than SD, is rent. And if the overwhelming number of PS3 (vs. standalone) owners do anything BD a fair amount, it is significant.

Isn't the rental market important to DVD? Do the studios not make loads of money in the rental market? Why would the rental market not be important to HD optical?

Now the online rental availabilities have been atrocious, but the demand is obviously there for both sides. Just wish I knew which had more demand. I haven't checked recently, can anyone say whether or not Netflix and BB have gotten their act together yet?

I'm guessing somebody knows the answer to this and I'm guessing they think it's important too.


P.S. Could the discrepancy we've seen in shipped vs. sold be due to the rentals being counted as shipped? Add to that the numbers in the hundreds that Amazon apparently keeps on hand. And how many are stored in the back of Wal-Marts, CCs and BBs?

Fantastic point.

I've thinking of starting a Netflix/blockbuster thread.

We know that Netflix CEO stated that they went neutral because of HD DVD launch despite earlier plans for staying Blu-ray only.
post #1647 of 9375
In the recent 60 minutes segment on Netflix in one center they had boxes and boxes of Spiderman II DVDs , at least 10,000 copies maybe even more on the shelf in one of a IIRC dozen centers. They are among the largest purchasers of standard DVDs. They normally buy at least 100-500 copies of every release they stock.

They have a long tail strategy for titles and they will buy a lot of both HD DVD and Blu-ray. Not sure how it compares to normal sales, but with low volumes sales of titles now, they may even be a factor in their purchases for the rental market.

I mean if they buy 50,000 copies of some standard DVDs, its not out of the question that they may buy hundreds in not 1000's of copies of the HD DVD and Blu-ray releases since they know their might eventually be a demand.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/...59_page3.shtml
post #1648 of 9375
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

I mean if they buy 50,000 copies of some standard DVDs, its not out of the question that they may buy hundreds in not 1000's of copies of the HD DVD and Blu-ray releases since they know their might eventually be a demand.

Well if you talk to any members of either Netflix of BB, their Queues will indicate there is plenty of demand. It's the supply they're more concerned about.

But as I said before, I haven't checked those threads recently. Maybe they're caught up by now.
post #1649 of 9375
In addition to above, what I am curious about are the numbers from Netflix regarding HD-DVD and Blu-ray rental activity. That may tell us how much interest people have in HiDef in general, apart from disc sales.
post #1650 of 9375
New Netflix thread starte here. I am transfering some posts over to jump start it.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...53#post9757553
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