Originally Posted by darinp2
No, I don't believe that 10% was based on that. Just from a quick look at the numbers for the last week it looks to me like 60k for the week ending the 28th combined would be closer to the ballpark if the total combined sales was 900k. How did you get the 15-20k? If that one week we 68.8/31.2, and the SI closed from 45.1 to 46.7 for Blu-ray, then it closed about 7% of the gap between the weekly number and the SI number for Blu-ray, or 1/15th of that gap in one week.
BTW: I'm just estimating and hoping Icemage will come in and do the full algebra.
All right, I took my calculations from the napkin to Excel, and I stand corrected. Your estimate, while different, is much closer.
I started with the assumption that Nielsen saw the same number of combined unit sales as NPD (877,000) for the week through Feb. 4. The difference with Nielsen that they are seeing a slightly different distribution between the two formats. I used the Nielsen ratios so far, as well as the data they provided to PC Magazine.
Since Jan. 1, I get an average of ~40,562 BD discs per week and ~19,996 HD-DVD discs per week.
Does that really change my analysis. Let's say Nielsen catches 50% of software sales, and 50% of hardware sales. This means by now they should be logging 500,000 PS3's. Add in around another 30,000 standalones caught at the same 50% rate. This means a average weekly attach rate of .077 discs per BD player, or one movie per 13 BD players each week.
Let's guess that by now, HD-DVD has sold 250,000 hardware sales, and Nielsen has caught 50% of those, or 125,000. It means HD-DVD is seeing a weekly attache rate of .160 discs per HD-DVD player, or one movie per 6.25 HD-DVD players each week.
Or if you want to spin this number, you could say even though BD is outselling HD-DVD 2:1, the need around twice as many players on the market to sell one disc. Otherwise, Blu-ray needs to sell 4X as many players to get 2X as many disc sales. Which situation has the better economy?