Originally Posted by plazman
These are all true IF the data as reported is true. For now, I can't find it on their site. So, unless someone points me to a link that shows the actual data, I will have to start second guessing...
However, if this data is true. Then we are seeing the end of HD DVD. Like I said, new content had very little impact on the top 5 titles. It was all PS3!
It would illustrate a tremendous hardware momentum that again would prove that Fox was right about HD DVD being unable to create a beach head. Once again, I would have been wrong in my analysis.
Basically, I would have screwed up badly and had it been my job, I would expect to be fired
Why would this indicate we are seeing the end of HD-DVD? This indicates Sony needs 5X as many players and 3X as many releases to catchup to HD-DVD. This is common sense and something already expected. It also validates that the attach rate for BD is much lower than that of HD-DVD. It points out that many PS3 owners aren't even using the PS3 as a player. With 500,000+ NA PS3's on the market, if each just bought 2 discs per month, Sony would have surpassed nearly the entire years worth of HD-DVD sales in just four weeks. By the week ending the 14th, the SI indeces would be 100 BD and ~50 HD-DVD. Since it is not, once can safely assume that many are not averaging two discs per month. The current ratio would seem to indicate that ~50% of PS3 owners average two discs a month. Since there are obviously a large chunk of PS3's owners who buy more discs than that, you are at only 25% of PS3 owners with a 4 disc average, or only 12.5% with a 8 disc average, using it to play movies on a regular basis.
This means that in a year, when 10 million PS3's are in homes (if they hit their target, which is doubtful, and 10 mil is a worldwide number), only 1 million or so will be used to view purchased movies on a regular basis. We already know HD-DVD is at about 175,000 players used to view purchased movies regularly, so they have a year to sell 825,000 more worldwide, which I don't think is out of reason. Sony needs to sell 9 million more PS3's to keep track with HD-DVD selling 825,000 more players. HD-DVD is a sniper rifle and BD is a shotgun!
All this info shows is that BD and HD-DVD have achieved parity and a year from know, they will still likely be at parity. I honestly think HD-DVD will be ahead worldwide in hardware (that is actually used to regularly playbck HD movies) by the end of the year. The only thing that could really set HD-DVD back is if the slow release schedule in January, drags over to Feb, March, and so forth. Hopefully things will pick up by March to try to get those tax dollars.