Originally Posted by xbdestroya
Wnorris your logic is all sorts of whacked.
Your attach rate figures are for a slice in time; if you follow the trending, BD made up 7% of HD DVDs entire historical sell-through in a single week.
Whatever the ratio of PS3 owners buying BD films, and however many films they buy, it is clearly greater in volumes than the present equivelent on HD DVD. If it weren't, the gap wouldn't be closing at all - simply maintaining. If the present rate were to keep up, BD would catch HD DVD the next week, surpass it the week after that, and never look back.
Let's just assume your five times the players and three times the releases... but it's not resulting in a simple "catch-up," it's resulting in an outright catapulting.
Actually, I am applying logic where you are applying none. Let's take things at face value for a second. In the 2nd week of November, the HD-DVD promotions group releases a press announcement that 1.5 million HD-DVD discs had shipped. Now, we don't know how many sold, but lets just estimate 1 million sold. Again, lets estimate that for the holiday season, another .5 million discs ship bringing the total to 2 million, and lets say the total number sold becomes somewhere in the range of 1.25-1.5 million. To confirm this range, the promotions group als said there was an attach rate of 8.4 for HD-DVD in 2006 (annualizing gives you the larger number around 26 which was touted at CES) and an estimated 175,000 player sales. Also keep in mind that the addon and A2 account for around 100,000 of these sales, and together, they average about the same amount of time on market as the PS3. So all this means 1.47 million discs sold in 2006, which confirms my estimate.
So in 2006, HD-DVD sold 1.47 million discs, and using the closest index to Dec. 31, 2006 (85.05), it would mean BD sold around 1.25 million discs.
Now, there were also numbers released around that time that indicated only 25,000 standalone BD players on the market. So up until the launch of the PS3, there were at most 25,000 standalones. Now there are various sales analysis of the PS3 on the web, but they put PS3 sales through the end of 2006 between 500,000 and 700,000 units in North America (where the Nielson numbers are valid). So this gives us between 525,000 and 725,000 players and 1.25 million discs, or an attach rate between 1.7 and 2.4 for BD players (compared to HD-DVD's 8.4).
Now, the fact that BD index went up to about 92 would mean BD outsold HD-DVD by about 100,000 discs between the 7th and 14th. This isn't a huge amount by any means, especially considering that Crank, BD's #1 selling disc was released in that period. Crank alone may be enough to account for the difference. There were no new releases for HD-DVD.
So what all this says is that in a relatively short amount of time HD-DVD hit an attach rate ~5X greater than BD, because BD flooded the market with ~4X more players than HD-DVD. I think this is a good indicator that basically as many people are using the PS3 for regular movie viewing, as there are HD-DVD owners. I would guess ~150,000 PS3's are being used to watch movies (during the period that we have data for), which means between 21%-30% of PS3's.Inevitably, some in there were just taking BD for a test drive (since it is the beginning of life), and may decide BD isn't worth an extra $5-$10 per disc. The actual percentage in the long run, will probably be slightly lower (15-20% maybe).
So what this tells us is that if Sony sells 10 million PS3's by the end of 2008, at most, maybe 2 million will be used as regular BD players. So HD-DVD needs to sell at most 1.825 million addons and standalones to keep pace with BD in NA. This is less than .5% of the NA population, so I think it is easily achievable, especially with prices seeming to fall weekly on HD-DVD players.
Like I said, I think BD has made a big push and now HD-DVD and BD are roughly equal. If Sony misses their sales forcast for the PS3, I think BD could be in big trouble. If HD-DVD doesn't get some more releases rolling, they could be in big trouble. It all goes back to the same thing I've always said, Sony's strength is content right now, and Toshiba's is hardware. If a HD-DVD could convince an exclusive studio were to go neutral, it would be severely damaging to BD. If BD found a way to produce cheap players, it would be severly damaging to HD-DVD.
It all points to parity, and without some new developments, I think the year will end on parity. This data doesn't show that BD is winning. It shows that the formats are stalemated, and if the likely trends continue, they will remain stalmated throughout 2007, with thin leads that see-saw back and forth.