Originally Posted by UxiSXRD
I'd LOVE to see your prediction for when HDDVD will reach parity in disc sales, much less pass Blu-ray for even a single week. Anytime in 2007? 2008?
The only advantage HDDVD has is price and in real dollars, that advantage is half what it was a year ago when Blu-ray took the lead. That advantage will be even less as we go into the holidays for 2007 and they've been getting put in a deeper and deeper disc sales hole.
Then there's the exclusive studio blockbusters that Universal just can't deliver. If Knocked Up is the best they can do, they are just not going to move units. Yes, they will sell some discs for hits on the neutral studios, but the Blu-ray versions will sell more and they'll sell many more of their own exclusives.
I owned HDDVD first and can't complain about the experience I received. If it survives, I won't be disapointed. It just has a dubious to non-existent advantage over the experience I've recieved from Blu-ray and can't claim to have the survival that Blu-ray is guaranted. I think my end user experience would be better receiving Universal titles on Blu-ray, however. YMMV
Lower hardware price means more penetration and a larger installed base.
Lower prices are even more of an advantage as they reach lower and lower levels until you get to $49.99 or less. A $100 or $50 difference means a lot more as prices drop.
HD DVD will continue to have this lead into the forseable future, at least until next year. That means HD DVD hardware will continue ot sell more throughout the year and much more during the high volume 4th quarter and end of year holiday season.
More standalone hardware sales means the studios and retailers will have an incentive to drop disc prices and display and stock more titles at retail locations so consumers can have easier access to them and will have less risk for purchase because they will cost less.
This will happen for both HD DVD and Blu-ray but if HD DVD prices are lower there will be more acceleration in sales for HD DVD as it will probably be at a lower price point than Blu-ray.
To answer you question, I think HD DVD will surpass Blu-ray in disc sales sometime after Black Friday, the day after the USA Thanksgiving holiday. It may even surpass that on some odd weeks before that.
YTD and SI ratios are basically history stats. With the volumes so low they don't mean much to the decision makers. Its the trending of the market share that is more important and although Blu-ray is constantly leading in the weekly sales ratios it is not consistenlt pulling away.
As long as HD DVD stays consistent or even closes a bit, it will be competitive up until the holiday sales season, where the real fun and games begin.
Last year, the PS3 dominated and the second generation HD DVD players didn't roll out until the last week or so of the holiday season, so the 4th quarter ( and 1st quarter mostly) were conceeded to the PS3 and Blu-ray.
This fourth quarter will be a serious fight where some substantial POS marketing and advertising pushes will be made and much more retail space will be allocated toward these HD formats.
Sales volumes for both formats will probably rise dramatically in October through December.
Every thing else until then is just preparing the battlefield.