BLU-RAY SALES THREAD: Put all sales figures and comments here! - Page 17  

Originally Posted by Kosty

The sales numbers we have access to show trends and snapshots of the data.

Its undeniable that Blu-ray's sales have increased while HD DVD sales have remained relatively constant.

The issue is whether or not that recent surge will be sustained by Blu-ray so that sales will move past and then surpass and remain higher than HD DVD, or whether or not new HD DVD 2nd generation and Xbox 360 add on sales moving into retail inventory and new HD DVD movie releases will move HD DVD sales off their current plateaus.

The Blu-ray surge has so far been of relatively short duration and its basically achieved parity with HD DVD. If thats a best shot by Blu-ray with a fortunate set of circumstances, then HD DVD sales will eventually recover their upward trend and will rise past Blu-ray.

If the PS3 attach rates rise , Blu-ray sales will rise, but if they are pegged only to initial PS3 sales then any PS3 sales slowdown after Xmas will soon show up in those trends.

I believe the data was relatively accurate when HD DVD was leading and now when Blu-ray has surged and achieved both near term parity and for now what has been a short term sales lead.

Originally Posted by plazman

I don't know of anyone here who thought amazon.com was a valuable source last year and now discounting it. OTOH, I know lots of posters who discounted it last year, now thinks it's a valuable source.

I personally believe there are interesting observations one can gleam from this site and it does show general trends pretty well.

I'd say there are about the same number of people who are buying the BD version of Departed v. the HD DVD version. So, that to me is an interesting data point since it shows that HD DVD is very much in the game.

It's how you look at data that creates interesting information

Originally Posted by Jeff Lampert

Ok, the Intellectual Honesty Police are here to make an arrest. First of all, when the HD DVD supporters were doing the majority of their bragging, Bly-ray was 1000-3000 ranking points behind HD DVD, a very sizable difference. Now, HD DVD is around 200 points (give ot take) behind Blu-ray, which is far, far, far less of a difference, yet the gloating is as intense or more so. Furthermore, the first couple weeks in January, following CES, HD DVD was holding onto the lead consistently and at time was 100-150 points ahead and there was no braggadocio from them. Of course, the fallout from CES and the realization of Blu-ray momentum probably had something to do with that, but they reality is that the HD DVD gloating was at least commensurate with the advantage they held. Now, Blu-ray supporters see a little daylight between them and HD DVD and they are acting like they won the World Series. I can't help but see the parallel with how this hype matches the hype from the BDA. You do realize that HD DVD is still holding their own, don't you?, in spite of the ridiculous advantages in install base, studios, and CE's. Oh, I get it, sorry you don't have Universal also (at least yet) and another 2 or 3 million PS3 installs. Then you could brag some more. Ever think that maybe Blu-ray should have simply won on merit, and not required bludgeoning the enitre populace with the PS3, promotion, and hyperbole in order to win?

Originally Posted by Kosty

The more interesting factor is the number of units that each side has in the market to show parity or a slight lead to Blu-ray.

If there are 250,000 or so HD DVD players in the wild, those stand alone players and Cbox add ons are selling close to the same volume of discs as the 1,000,000 plus PS3 and a few 10,000's stand alone Blu-ray players.

Thats a huge marginal differential. For Blu-ray sales to continue to match or surpass HD DVD sales, a lot more PS3's have to be sold than stand alone HD DVD players. With HD A2s coming into the market in mass quantities, their sales or lack thereof will soon have an impact on these trends.

The PS3, the HD A2 and the Xbox 360 add on are the only HD players that are being built in mass consumer adoption quantities. All have been previously supply constrained. As those inventory issues pass, their real impact and attach rates should start to be come clear within 60-90 days.

Originally Posted by Kosty

Again look at the size of the seperation in almost every chart. Blu-ray has surged ahead in most indexes but the gap is far lowere than throughout most of the year. Its a lot easier to close to parity or have a slight lead, as the scales are highly logarithmic in their scaling when you are going from a very low base.

Were are not talking millions of units sold here, it in the 10s 100s or at the most 1000s per period. That low volume is very sensitive to short term trends and coincidences. It the longer term trends that will be determinate.

Originally Posted by plazman

I see HD DVD and BD coexisting the same way xbox 360 and PS3 will continue to exist as gaming formats. I believe the xbox right now is selling better since it has better titles, when PS3 releases better titles it will change....same thing going on here. IMO. Both formats are showing overall upward trend on dvdwars.

It's not like people are buying 90% of common titles on BD v. HD DVD. So, that tells me the problem is available titles rather than the format losing support. A format is losing support when the same title on one format sells way more than another.

On Ddvdwars it also doesn't help that the currently #2 title - Lucky # Slevin is out of stock.

Now that dvdempire has thrown their hat in the ranking game, we should have a poll on this forum to see how many people buy what % of their disks from what source. I suspect dvdempire is in the less than 5% range, with Amazon in the 20-30% range. But we should confirm that. The contribution of a source to overall sales is important if the data is deemed representative. The only reason I give credence to dvdwars is that Amazon is the largest seller of online media - books, CD, DVD in the world and is used by all demographics in al parts of the country.

Until I read a thread on AVS, I didn't even know about dvd empire!

Anyway, I believe the BDA will put out data to support their cause in Q1. Shouldn't videoscan also have data by the end of the month?

Originally Posted by heavyharmonies

*giggle*

I love all the discussion about the format in war past tense. Over. Done. Finished.

So if and when the sales trend flattens again or, heaven forbid, reverses itself, will that be "Format War II" since the first one is over?

Awful lot of people counting their chickens considering how early we are in the format war...

It will be interesting to revisit this thread 6 months from now and then compare notes.

Originally Posted by Neo1965

Instead of getting all worked up for no good reason, search the forum. There is a sticky at the top. AFI "100 Years, 100 Films" and Top 100 Adjusted Box Office broken down by format!

kosty and bferr did a lot of work to compile the list of movies from all the studios.

I don't know about other people, but I have no interest in getting Plan 9 on highdef (or movies that are ranked 2000+ on a list - probably unwatchable). From kosty's earlier post in the above thread, here's the breakdown as far as ALL worldwide known movies are distributed :

BD

Lions Gate 773
Sony Pictures 2219
Fox 5156
Buena Vista (Disney) 2233
MGM 4250
Warner 6405
Paramount 3673
Bandai 153
HBO 1027
New Line 753
CBS Television 2699
Vivid 684

TOTAL 30025

HD-DVD

Warner 6405
Paramount 3673
Universal 4252
Bandai 153
Weinstein 81
HBO 1027
New Line 753
Studio Canal 145
CBS Television 2699
Vivid 684
Wicked Pictures 423

TOTAL 20295

Here's the DVD's bought in 2006 broken down by studio :


There's a ton of information here, and if everyone just sat down and read them all, we would get rid of all the unnecessary bickering, and save our energy for the necessary bickering.

Originally Posted by darinp2

I doubt that Sony is to 1 million sold in the US yet. Shipped maybe, but not sold.

And for those who say that the number of people who use a PS3 for watching Blu-ray movies is really small, then that wouldn't be a good sign for how HD DVDs are selling if they aren't looking better in the rankings than they are now. If Blu-ray ends up with an attach rate for the PS3 that is equivalent to standalones at about 15-20% of the total PS3 systems, that would be significant to this war going forward. Obviously the number isn't going to be 100%, it isn't going to be 0% and it doesn't even have to be most of PS3 owners that use it for Blu-ray movie playback for it to be very significant to software sales between the formats.

--Darin

Originally Posted by LAGOSIAN

No, HD DVD has been beating Blu-ray for 7 months straight in software and sales; to suddenly start judging the first 3 weeks of sales in the new year as Blu-ray is PULLING AWAY???
I'm sorry but that is a mathematical impossibility. We are supposed to suddenly forget 7 months of headway because BR has now started to do better in 3 weeks? That is nonsensical and irrational statistics. We wait another 7 full months, tally the numbers OF MOVIES SOLD (NOT RELEASED) during the combined 14 month span, and then we get a more realistic number. That's common sense, and the proper way to measure averages.

Originally Posted by briankmonkey

" Sony is thinking long term."

I've been saying this for months, but the short-sited HD-DVD zealots were insistant that blu-ray was already dead a couple of months ago.. Yes, we get it HD-DVD launched first, good job, lol

Originally Posted by LAGOSIAN

OBSOLETE?
Where do you get your info from man? A 3 WEEK CHART??? GIVE ME A BREAK MAN!
Stop hanging around BR fanatics and get into the act of getting information from INDEPENDENT 3RD PARTY SOURCES!

I don't give a hoot what HD DVD fanatics or BR fanatics think, I go to independent sources who have no vested interest in either format; that's where you gather the truth.

Do you think that we in the media go to companies and ask them what they think of themselves, and then air that as facts? No. we go to 3rd party sources to corroborate their stories.

HD DVD just won the prestigious Product of the Year Award from Sound And Vision, the world's largest entertainment magazine. When the most trusted and respected CE magazine gives you its highest honor, your future is very bright!
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=795101

You think buyers are so stupid, that they buy into what the BDA or the HD DVD Promotion groups are selling? NO! These bodies are BIASED TOWARD THEIR BRAND, and therefore whatever they say about themselves, and their back patting amounts to SQUAT in the eyes of consumers!
What consumers trust are ACCREDITED THIRD PARTY REVIEWS. That is why they read Consumer Reports Magazine.

This is why you see auto makers advertising "Car And Driver Truck of the year", or "JD Power and Asso. Truck of the Year" ads. They SELL PRODUCTS!
The BDA's self promoting tactics is BAD MARKETING, it will eventually do more harm than good.

Originally Posted by plazman

Since you are from Detroit, this analogy will probably resonate with you as well. Sometimes volume does not solve the problem, but is the problem. The most recent example is Ford. Ford was making and selling millions of cars, these cars were not selling so they were reducing prices and offering incentives to move these cars. In the end they ended up losing appox $2,000 per car and multiplied by their tens of millions of vehicles sold it ended up losing the company around $16 B dollars.

That is really the same problem that Sony has. To sell their BD format, they are hoping to sell tens of millions of units of a console on which they are losing $200-$300 per unit (if not more). So, volume does not solve their problem.

So, it would be safe to assume that the HD DVD side is well aware of this. Toshiba did a smart thing and ended their subsidized A-1 with the A-2 after less than 70K units sold. All they have to do is hold on until the whole BD venture runs out of cash. Dumping (selling below cost) only works when you can subsidize one market and charge monopolistic price from another. In the case of BD this is not even remotely close. Looks like each market is more subsidized than the other!!!!

Also, someone said something about percentages. First, percentages by themselves are misleading when it is not accompanied by the actual units. So, I can win an election with 100% of all votes with one voter and win an election with 51% of the vote with 100M voters. I would not claim that the person winning with 100% vote is statistically more popular than his opponent. Since, I cannot extrapolate the results from 1 voter to 1 million. In a nutshell for statistical analysis to make sense you need a minimum representative sample size.

When sites like dvdempire says that format x has 60% of weekly sales, it means almost nothing in the overall scheme unless we know the units that the 60% comprise. The only reason we seem to pay more attention to Amazon is because as a well known online retailer we assume that it represents a sizable market for the product.

Looking at just Amazon it isn't obvious that BD is pulling away from HD DVD - yet. To me it looks like BD and HD DVD are very close when it comes to overall sales. However, if you factor in that BD needed 10 times as many highly subsidized players to achieve this and a massive announcement of titles, it can't be all good.

...and I am not even factoring in that 2-3 of the top 10 HD DVD titles, which includes some of the most recent releases are out of stock.

remember to examine and analyse and things may not be what they first appear to be....

Originally Posted by plazman

If they wanted to hedge their bets, wouldn't it make sense to subsidize their standalone player then as well?

The question obviously is how much coke must you give away for free. At some point the crack dealer has to see inflow as well, otherwise he's in trouble! I'm sure if Ford could have helped it, they would rather not have lost the $4K per car! Clearly, the market undervalued their product.

I think, BD is in danger where the market will percieve it's value at a point that is too low to break even. That is a challenge IMHO. If Universal delivers 100 titles this year as promised, it will make it all that much harder.

If you're following the dvdwars site you'll notice that the XA-2 is consistently ranked higher than any BD player, even those costing significantly less. So, consumers will pay for value and right now they are seeing it in HD DVD.

I am not implying here that HD DVD is winning or is going to win. But mainly that what is going on is more complex than current sales data - I call that the economics of each format. By that I mean the cost of competing for each format. I am sure even you will agree that the cost of competing is much higher for BD v. HD DVD at this point. So, unless we see a clear breakaway in the next few months, I don't see how HD DVD can go away or be marginalized by Christmas this year.

Given the costs of publishing on BD, I can see film industries in Asia and elsewhere preferring HD DVD v. BD. Perhaps that is one reason why the Chinese manufacturers are backing it. Getting content onto HD DVD is much easier and will be a huge advantage. BD is currently only affordable to a few and clearly at the mercy of those in the good books of Sony....there are the trees and then there is the forest

Originally Posted by Stromprophet

It's been a sales lead for a Month at Dvdempire.com. Whether or not it's short term is debatable. Blu-ray will continue to have more movie selection which will drive PS3 users to continue to get new movies as they become available. What you consider a short term bubble, may be an initial acceleration.

Consider that 28 tie rate to HD-DVD players has been established over the life. It's not an initial purchase, people getting a HD-DVD player do not immediately purchase 28 movies. So is this just a bubble? Maybe it's just the begginning and PS3 users haven't purchased all the movies they want yet.

If you look long term, Blu-ray has been closing the gap since the summer before PS3 was even launched. According to dvdempire.com it's not parity it's 2 to 1 right now.

HD-DVD does not have an upward trend. It has a sideways trend since the summer really. In fact, sales were higher in September than during the Holidays. From what I see there is no title IMO that is going to push them above the current plateu. I don't see it.

The surge in online sales appears to have started January 23rd as 12 new BD titles were available, that's going to continue over coming weeks, 5 tomorrow, 6 the week after and 13 the week after that. Blu-ray may surge even higher than now.

Originally Posted by Kosty

I think its likely that both formats have done enough to survive, and that one format or another will eventually dominate with a 65-75% or so share while the other will sustain with a 25-35% share. IMHO the game console mamrket is a fair model.

The Xbox and PS3 sales alone will insure that both formats will be supported for years.

Originally Posted by MSpeed6

you can't compare blu ray to umd. UMD is a format that only plays on the psp, a portable gaming system. You can't watch umd movies @ home. Besides Umds are priced way too high and don't offer anything extra to dvds. Its not hard to see why people rather just buy a partable dvd player for 99bux and use standard dvds.

Originally Posted by Kosty

I also think that the long term economics of this format battle favor HD DVD, that's why Sony and the BDA is/was trying to kill HD DVD in its infancy.

The longer HD DVD survives the tougher it is for Sony to recover its PS3 investment, which is already in a tough competition to larger Xbox 360 sales volumes.

A lot of lower cost trends favor HD DVD including the cheaper CE manufacturers.

Blu-ray needs to truely dominate not only in rankings but sales and dollar volumes soon, or those economic factors will start to work in favor of HD DVD.

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Last I checked a good amount of BRs were prices way to high with little to no extras.

Originally Posted by Kosty

DVD empire has a much lower sales volume than Amazon so the % is probably a lot more volatile. Blu-ray has had many more new releases than HD DVD recently so it may just be a reflection of that temporary situation.

The fact that HD DVD sales have been sustained (as you say flat) at least shows long term consistency at a base rate, which can act as a floor to spring forward additional sales.

Originally Posted by Stromprophet

Cheaper CE manufacturers....Hmmmm I guess that's why Sony bought a 55% stake in the largest drive maker in the world, and they got Samsung, Pioneer, JVC, Sony, over 10 manufacturers in total to make drives.

Toshiba only has themselves, the other manufacturers of blu-ray are all based in asia and all use Chinese manufacturing. I'd say a group of 10 or more manufacturers has a much better ability to drive costs down thru cost sharing agreements and technology agreements as opposed to one manufacturer Toshiba taking on all the research and manufacturing efforts.

Originally Posted by dpags

If that's the case then why is it outselling HD-DVD then? Shouldn't BD be dead already? Who's buying all these blu-rays? Looks like people don't really care about extras.

Originally Posted by b.greenway

You are aware that Toshiba and Samsung have an optical-drive joint venture correct? The "Toshiba only has themselves" part is a bit of a stretch, NEC produced the first HD DVD drives and now TSST manufactures the drives in the A2, XA2 (and variants) and 360 add-on as well as PC drives.