AVS › AVS Forum › Blu-ray & HD DVD › Blu-ray Software › BLU-RAY SALES THREAD: Put all sales figures and comments here!
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

BLU-RAY SALES THREAD: Put all sales figures and comments here! - Page 192  

post #5731 of 11556
3/13/09 at 11:41am
Quote:


Originally Posted by av.pallino
Not sure how you came up with 10% share. 10M out of 134M is below 8%. Sixth week below 10% and weekly share of Blu Ray is falling! I was curious to see how these poor numbers would be spun.

OMG its Chicken Little!!! The sky is falling the sky is falling!!!

Quote:


Sixth week below 10% and weekly share of Blu Ray is falling

Its also the sixth straight week that Blu-ray is up 129% to 170% over last years figures when DVD is 10-20% lower over the same time.

Gee, although it fell a ridiculously non significant 0.03% percent from the week before, it also was still higher than two other reported weeks this year.

I'll take the year to year comparisons as being more significant than the fact that Blu-ray has not hit an arbitrary 10% threshold ratio during a historically slow sales season. You, of course, can feel free to differ.

.

Gear mentioned in this thread:

post #5732 of 11556
3/13/09 at 11:43am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Who is downplaying it?

I'm the guy who is taking the time and effort to show it each week along with all the historical data to put it in context.

Besides, that total sales ratio percentage for Blu-ray revenues is just about double this year than it was for last year at the same time.

Besides, in 10 weeks this year Blu-ray has over $137.05 M in revenues when it took 16 weeks for only $74 M last year. Thats almost twice as much revenues in 5/8 of the time. $13.70 M per week for Blu-ray so far this year , compared to $4.79 per week for the 1st quarter of last year. Thats roughly a tripling of Blu-ray revenues in year to year comparisons. With a lot more players due to be sold later in the year, that is probably going to only accelerate in the higher sales volumes period of the year.

At least 2.5 million standalones were sold last year, if we believe the estimates. That compares with about 500,000 standalones being in people's homes at the beginning of 2008. That's quite a jump in the number of standalone players, a lot more than the tripling of the software revenue that you refer to. Now, you could argue that the player growth in the last year wasn't really that much due to all the PS3s that were owned at the beginning of 2008. However, it is also true that a year's worth of PS3s can be added in to that 2.5 million standalone number.

Taking all of this information into account, it is surprising and somewhat bewildering that the software numbers are not significantly higher than they are. I have mentioned this before-the early adopters are the ones who should be providing the highest attach rate, and the 2008 hardware sales were still largely driven by early adopters. The farther into 2009 we go, the lower the percentage of these early adopters, and the fewer movie sales that you'll be able to attach to each player sold.

I believe these numbers are disappointing to the studios (Sony, at the very least) who were hoping for Blu-ray to take off and replace DVD as soon as possible. But to those studios who believed all along that Blu-ray was just going to be a significant niche product for a good while, well, that belief is coming true. Those studios also see Blu-ray as an opportunity to market a premium product at premium pricing, which is what they wanted to begin with.

Hopefully this "premium product" viewpoint will lead to a better and more consistent product than we have seen so far from Blu-ray, because the last two years the studios have delivered far too many poor if not horrible releases of movies that deserved far better.
post #5733 of 11556
3/13/09 at 12:03pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

I'm the guy who is taking the time and effort to show it each week along with all the historical data to put it in context.

Kosty, I for one sure appreciate your time and effort spent posting charts and data in this thread.

IMO, there will always be Blu-ray detractors here. Why some folks can not see the positive gains Blu-ray is making during this time period is beyond me. It is one of the very few gains that I see in the world wide economy. I can only imagine how elated GM or Ford or Chrysler, etc., etc. would be with a 30% or more in sales growth.
post #5734 of 11556
3/13/09 at 12:22pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Magazine is up:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...M/index.php#/0

Market share per title chart:

Wow.

Everything on that chart is over 10% marketshare for Blu-ray. With a lot over 20%.

Those are relatively current titles and many were big hits last year.
post #5735 of 11556
3/13/09 at 12:30pm
Heck even chick flicks, comedies and animation are doing 12% of units.

Remember also that as Blu-ray units sell for more the revenue shares and actual profit per unit are even higher got those titles for Blu-ray.
post #5736 of 11556
3/13/09 at 12:47pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Who is downplaying it?

I'm the guy who is taking the time and effort to show it each week along with all the historical data to put it in context.

Besides, that total sales ratio percentage for Blu-ray revenues is just about double this year than it was for last year at the same time.

Besides, in 10 weeks this year Blu-ray has over $137.05 M in revenues when it took 16 weeks for only $74 M last year. Thats almost twice as much revenues in 5/8 of the time.

$13.70 M per week for Blu-ray so far this year , compared to $4.79 per week for the 1st quarter of last year. Thats roughly a tripling of Blu-ray revenues in year to year comparisons. With a lot more players due to be sold later in the year, that is probably going to only accelerate in the higher sales volumes period of the year.



I usually create the chart within the hour of when I can get the data from HMM.

I just posted the HMM chart as so as I saw it, with the latest data before I could spend the time to update and format the data chart.

The specific data to me only makes sense when its placed in a trending perspective. Thats why I think the new summary chart, I've created with the year to year data we know have shows the better perspective.

The seasonal ups and downs and the weekly variations in the release schedules make short term comparisons more problematic.

To me its more significant that Blu-ray has been up 70% from last year and has been up for six weeks straight in the year to year comparisons than seasonally low 1st quarter volumes are below seasonally higher 4th quarter volumes from last year.

To me the data below is the most significant:


=====================================================

Blu-ray 2009 Revenue and Market Share Percentages Highlighted in Red

2008 to 2009 YEAR TO YEAR WEEKLY REVENUE COMPARISON CALCULATIONS (Arranged by Year)
Code:
Date      DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
       revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    rev index   top 20 units   YTY Change

2009
3/08/09 124.23  10.61   134.84   7.87 %      8.54     10 % (BD +69.04% DVD-17.54% TL -14.08% YTY)
3/01/09 138.21  11.85   150.06   7.90 %      8.57      8 % (BD +46.36% DVD-10.16% TL -7.33% YTY
2/22/09 141.64  13.28   154.92   8.57 %      9.38     10 % (BD +29.31% DVD-11.94% TL -9.47 YTY)
2/15/09 153.35  10.78   164.13   6.57 %      7.03      8 % (BD +33.27% DVD-00.25% YTY same week)
2/08/09 142.11  11.00   153.11   7.18 %      7.74      7 % (BD +61.03% DVD-13.32% YTY same week)
2/01/09 115.36  10.27   125.63   8.17 %      8.90     14 % (BD +68.41% DVD-24.30% YTY same week)

2008
3/09/08 150.65   6.28   156.93   4.00 %      4.17    > 4 %  (Calc from 2009 data)
3/02/08 153.84   8.10   161.94   5.00 %      5.26    > 4 %  (Calc from 2009 data)
2/24/08 160.84  10.27   171.11   6.00 %      6.38    > 4 %  (Calc from 2009 data) 
2/17/08 153.73   8.09   161.82   5.00 %      5.20    > 4 %  (Calc from 2009 data)
2/10/08 163.95   6.83   170.78   4.00 %      4.17    > 4 %  (Calc from 2009 data)
2/03/08 152.39   6.10   158.49   3.85 %      4.00    > 4 %  (Calc from 2009 data)
2008 to 2009 YEAR TO YEAR WEEKLY REVENUE COMPARISON CALCULATIONS (Matched Weeks)

Code:
Date      DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
       revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    rev index   top 20 units   YTY Change


3/08/09 124.23  10.61   134.84   7.87 %      8.54     10 % (BD +69.04% DVD-17.54 % TL -14.08% YTY)
3/09/08 150.65   6.28   156.93   4.00 %      4.17    > 4 % (Calc from 2009 data)

3/01/09 138.21  11.85   150.06   7.90 %      8.57      8 % (BD +46.36% DVD-10.16 % TL -7.33% YTY
3/02/08 153.84   8.10   161.94   5.00 %      5.26    > 4 % (Calc from 2009 data)

2/22/09 141.64  13.28   154.92   8.57 %      9.38     10 % (BD +29.31% DVD-11.94 % TL -9.47 YTY)
2/24/08 160.84  10.27   171.11   6.00 %      6.38    > 4 % (Calc from 2009 data) 

2/15/09 153.35  10.78   164.13   6.57 %      7.03      8 % (BD +33.27% DVD-00.25% YTY same week)
2/17/08 153.73   8.09   161.82   5.00 %      5.20    > 4 % (Calc from 2009 data)

2/08/09 142.11  11.00   153.11   7.18 %      7.74      7 % (BD +61.03% DVD-13.32% YTY same week)
2/10/08 163.95   6.83   170.78   4.00 %      4.17    > 4 % (Calc from 2009 data)

2/01/09 115.36  10.27   125.63   8.17 %      8.90     14 % (BD +68.41% DVD-24.30% YTY same week)
2/03/08 152.39   6.10   158.49   3.85 %      4.00    > 4 % (Calc from 2009 data)
2008 1Q+ to 2009 YEAR TO DATE FIRST QUARTER REVENUE COMPARISON CALCULATIONS

Code:
Date Range      DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
             revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    revenue    top 20 units

TOTAL FOR PERIOD
1/4- 3/08/09 1,265.84 137.05  1,402.89   9.77 %  10.83   11.50 % (avg of top 20%'s) 
1/6- 4/20/08 2,573.43  76.61  2,650.04   2.89 %   2.98  > 4.00 % (HMM data of top 20%'s)

WEEKLY AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1/4- 3/08/09   126.58  13.71    140.29   9.77 %  10.83   11.50 %
2/3- 3/09/08   155.90   7.61    163.51   4.65 %   4.88  > 4.00 %  
1/6- 4/20/08   160.83   4.79    165.62   2.89 %   2.98  > 4.00 %   

1Q- 2009 AVERAGES (10 weeks, average per week)  1/04/09 thru 3/08/09)
1Q- 2008 AVERAGES (06 weeks, average per week)  2/03/08 thru 3/08/08)
1Q+ 2008 AVERAGES (16 weeks, average per week)  1/06/08 thru 4/20/08)
2008 FINAL to 2009 YEAR TO DATE ANNUAL REVENUE COMPARISON CALCULATIONS

Code:
Date Range      DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
             revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    revenue    top 20 units

1/4- 3/08/09  1,265.84 137.05  1,402.89   9.97 %  10.83  11.50 % (avg of top 20%'s) 
1/6-12/29/08  8,225.24 627.56  8,852.80   7.09 %   7.63   8.00 % (avg of top 20%'s)

2009 Calculated Year To Date   1/4/09 thru  3/08/09)
2008 Calculated Final for Year 1/6/08 thru 12/28/08)

The 2x change in ratios is looking at Blu Ray which is doing around $4M more in revenue each week (this year compared to last year) v. DVD a format that is losing around $20M in revenue each week. So naturally the ratios are going to change.

The overall strategy is obviously not working for studios (for now) since Blu Ray isn't making up for what they are losing in terms of DVD sales. Last years huge promotion was designed to do just that (get mass adoption of Blu Ray over DVD).

Of course you know that Blu Ray isn't the fastest growing source for movies either at this point in time. But in $ terms it is easily the most substantial of the next gen formats.
post #5737 of 11556
3/13/09 at 12:57pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Heck even chick flicks, comedies and animation are doing 12% of units.

Remember also that as Blu-ray units sell for more the revenue shares and actual profit per unit are even higher got those titles for Blu-ray.

The diversity of titles on that list is good news. Definitely shows that a wider variety of people are starting to buy Blu Ray. Given the overall sales skew I'd suspect that Blu Ray doesn't compete well with the best selling DVD titles but are pulling in revenue from the rest. So that's a nice gravy for studios.

Interesting that DVD sales fell 17% and the overall market fell 14% or so. At current rates Blu Ray to grow by 5x or so just to make up the loss in DVD revenue on a weekly basis.
post #5738 of 11556
3/13/09 at 1:27pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by av.pallino View Post

The 2x change in ratios is looking at Blu Ray which is doing around $4M more in revenue each week (this year compared to last year) v. DVD a format that is losing around $20M in revenue each week. So naturally the ratios are going to change.

The overall strategy is obviously not working for studios (for now) since Blu Ray isn't making up for what they are losing in terms of DVD sales. Last years huge promotion was designed to do just that (get mass adoption of Blu Ray over DVD).

Of course you know that Blu Ray isn't the fastest growing source for movies either at this point in time. But in $ terms it is easily the most substantial of the next gen formats.

Quote:


The diversity of titles on that list is good news. Definitely shows that a wider variety of people are starting to buy Blu Ray. Given the overall sales skew I'd suspect that Blu Ray doesn't compete well with the best selling DVD titles but are pulling in revenue from the rest. So that's a nice gravy for studios.

Interesting that DVD sales fell 17% and the overall market fell 14% or so. At current rates Blu Ray to grow by 5x or so just to make up the loss in DVD revenue on a weekly basis.

Sounds like the Blu-ray is failing if its not fully compensating for DVDs inadaequancies meme.

At the rate its going though, I'll contend that by the end of year after more Blu-ray owners are in the mix with advancing hardware sales, that Blu-ray will have a chance to cover the DVD sales attrition.
post #5739 of 11556
3/13/09 at 1:43pm
Amazon had a big 300 title sale going on which would help to explain the percentages for BD. Just as the previous DVD sales skewed numbers as well.


I don't know if this has kicked in at the retail level yet in the US yet. The more money you guys print the more your dollar is worth so it is hard to tell what is going on from up here.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article...?desc=topstory


You can't say Kosty is hiding the bad news. He provides more complete numbers than any one else on the internet. If he chooses to highlight more of the good numbers that is his prerogative just as some here choose to highlight only the negative.
post #5740 of 11556
3/13/09 at 2:01pm
The only reason I end up pointing out the overall share is because it is ALWAYS left out in the summary. So it appears as negative only because I keep having to point out that the summary is excluding the overall share!

I acknowledge like everyone else does around here that this is the most valuable site for reliable data. I guess Kosty's summary is not so much a summary of the week as opposed to 'what was positive' from a Blu Ray sales perspective. That's fine. I'll just add my one line after his each week. TOTAL share =....unless of course Blu Ray has a great week in which case it will be there

I'm fine with that.

Also, as long as we (US) can print money AND have the dollar appreciate no reason why we should not! Interest rates are down, money supply is up and the $ is up! got figure
post #5741 of 11556
3/13/09 at 2:02pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

I'll take the year to year comparisons as being more significant than the fact that Blu-ray has not hit an arbitrary 10% threshold ratio during a historically slow sales season. You, of course, can feel free to differ.

.

Here is the problem with that scenario.

BD/(DVD+BD)

100/(1000+100) = 0.0909
100/(900+100) = 0.1
100/(800+100) = 0.11
100/(700+100) = 0.125

As DVD sinks BD should naturally be rising. That makes the Y/Y percentage comparisons either invalid or more disappointing. Or to quote Lawrence Garfield from Other Peoples Money.

" And you know the surest way to go broke? Keep getting an increasing share of a shrinking market. Down the tubes. Slow but sure. You know, at one time there must've been dozens of companies making buggy whips. And I'll bet the last company around was the one that made the best god damn buggy whip you ever saw."

Yes the absolute dollars numbers for BD are up over last year but I don't see any reason to get excited. Selling in the single digits 3+ years into the formats life span is not serious progress. I don't point the finger at BD for the mess the studios have gotten them selves into. I blame the studios. The farther we go along the more the MPAA looks like the RIAA. They need to drop the arrogance and stop taking their customers for granted.
post #5742 of 11556
3/13/09 at 3:45pm


Quote:


The only reason I end up pointing out the overall share is because it is ALWAYS left out in the summary. So it appears as negative only because I keep having to point out that the summary is excluding the overall share!

That's not my graphic, its Home Media's Magazine. So talk to them.

I always include (and now highlight in red for pity sakes on the year to year charts) on my cumulative revenue chart a column that is the BD/(DVD+DVD) = Blu-ray over the total of DVD and Blu-ray revenues = the overall Blu-ray revenue share.

I usually post it within an hour of when I see the HMM chart up. What more do you want?
post #5743 of 11556
3/13/09 at 3:59pm
http://www.videobusiness.com/article...?desc=topstory

Of relevance here.

Quote:


Blu-ray prices drop at retail
High-def titles sell for average of $26 tag

By Susanne Ault -- Video Business, 3/13/2009

MARCH 13 | Blu-ray Disc new release pricing is on the slide at retail, hovering at an average of $26 so far in 2009, according to Adams Media Research, as retailers try to find the right carrot to dangle for the thriftiest consumers in years.

Through the first three quarters of last year, retail prices on Blu-ray new releases ranged between $28 and $30. Studios' wholesale charges to retailers, generally $21 to $24 on titles with list prices of $35 to $40, have mostly stayed the same since the format's 2006 launch, sources say, so retailers are squeezing their margins to sell more volume.

Stores are battling the quickly deteriorating economy through lower Blu-ray pricing, so there is less of a perceived difference between high-definition discs and cheaper $15 to $20 new release standard-definition DVDs.

I think the two major things working against Blu-ray are the recession and that the layman may not notice the difference going from disc to disc, said one chain product manager. It's not like it's tape to DVD.

Adams Media Research predicts the Blu-ray price cuts at retail will continue through 2013. By that time, tags will hit $22.09, declining from $23.24 in 2011 and $24.46 in 2010.

Recently, Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment's March 3 release Beverly Hills Chihuahua, list priced at $34.99, debuted at Amazon.com and Best Buy at $27.99 and $25.99, respectively. MGM Home Entertainment's Quantum of Solace, distributed by 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment, streets March 24 with a list price of $39.99 but is pre-selling for $25.99 at Amazon and $26.99 at Best Buy. Fox's Slumdog Millionaire bows March 31 for $26.99 at both Amazon and Best Buy. Its list price is $39.99.

Retail understands elasticity and this is their response to the consumer in this type of economic environment, said Denis Cambruzzi, VP of Adams Media Research, a division of Screen Digest.

He also believes that Circuit City's going-out-of-business sales have spurred deals from rival retailers.

We're likely to see more aggressive discounting this year, said Cambruzzi, as major retailers try to grab the Circuit City customer and increase their market share.

The NPD Group, specifically analyzing Blu-ray theatrical new releases, notes the average retail price falling from $26.30 in September to $25.83 in January.

Consumers were saying a year ago that the price was high and that they were much more comfortable at $22 or $23, said Russ Crupnick, NPD entertainment industry analyst. Yes, the economy can exacerbate things. But the consumers do get that Blu-ray is a premium, but it's the extent of that premium where they are resistant.

Retailers understand why Blu-ray is being targeted for discounting. But they worry that the format, meant to deliver higher margins than standard DVD, is being devalued too fast in its short lifetime. Once prices are slashed, it's doubtful consumers will accept them lifted back up to original levels.

Personally, once prices do go down, I don't think that people will get in the habit of paying $28 or $29 for a movie again, said one store buyer. Retailers are just trying to get consumers into stores. But what concerns me are retailers dropping prices where the margins aren't there. This could get into loss leader territory.

Another retailer believes certain Blu-ray film genres need an extra push off shelves. Dramas, family and kids titles, lacking the special effects that maximize Blu-ray's effects, do not sell as well as action titles for the chain.

You just want people to step into the pool and try it out, said the retail source. Many people aren't aware of the Blu-ray experience. But once you start watching, you don't want to go back.




Code:
                          2006  2007    2008    2009    2010    2011    2012    2013
New release feature     *30.70  *31.31  *28.43  *26.30  *24.46  *23.24  *22.54  *22.09
All other titles        *27.00  *32.67  *27.67  *24.21  *21.55  *19.39  *17.07  *15.53
Weighted average price  *28.37  *31.98  *28.07  *25.34  *23.18  *21.32  *19.69  *18.55
post #5744 of 11556
3/13/09 at 4:10pm
There is a lot of room for decreasing the prices of catalog titles without going down too quickly.

Many catalog titles are $5 on DVD with the Blu-ray version running $25. This is clearly too much of a differential for most customers.

I personally will not buy the DVD's anymore but I am finding myself waiting for sales on many titles. For example: I bought "Aviator" only when the price dropped on a sale.
post #5745 of 11556
3/13/09 at 5:03pm
Quote:


Many catalog titles are $5 on DVD with the Blu-ray version running $25. This is clearly too much of a differential for most customers.

Survey after survey after survey says the same thing. What is holding sales back is pricing mostly on the software side. As long as the studios think a $1 rental is better than a sale then rentals will stay strong while sales lag. Like the record studios the movie studios can choose to close their eyes and wish all the change going on around them will just go away, but it won't.
post #5746 of 11556
3/13/09 at 5:08pm
Seems that 99% of Blu owners I read about in forums all rent and don't bother buying unless the movie is REALLY worth repeat viewings thus the double dip by them.

I don't see how Blu can keep going if practically nobody is buy the outrageously priced discs (not to mention the overpriced players) and instead everyone just runs to Netflix or Red Box.
post #5747 of 11556
3/13/09 at 5:14pm
I think its more strategic than that.

Retailers do not want to reduce prices to fast , especially on day and date releases, and there is some patience at the retail level to adjust pricing until the effect of new Blu-ray player hardware sales is known later on during the year.

New Blu-ray hardware is shipping now and its a historically low time of year to do any major promotions and on top of it all there is the general economic angst to worry about.

I don't think that any serious price adjustments on day and date pricing will occur until August or later, but I think we will start seeing more prominent Blu-ray software sales occurring when the new players arrive at retail next month.

Pretty much the only Blu-ray likely at the consumer level will be the routine advertising of the new video releases each week. No need to advertise Blu-ray until the new 2009 generation Blu-ray players are available to be sold.
post #5748 of 11556
3/13/09 at 7:20pm
If it were up to me I'd say studios should price Blu Rays at exactly the same price as DVD. That way you'll get people to change their behavior a lot faster and the optical revenue sales decline can be reversed. At worst, price them so that studios make the same per unit whether it is DVD or Blu Ray.

The idea behind treating Blu Ray as a high end niche product is a seriously flawed strategy.

Blaming the economy here makes no sense since entertainment spending including movies, video games and everything but optical disk sales is up. Reason is many people won't buy DVD knowing Blu Ray is better, but won't buy Blu Ray because prices are too high.
post #5749 of 11556
3/13/09 at 7:50pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

I think its more strategic than that.

Retailers do not want to reduce prices to fast , especially on day and date releases, and there is some patience at the retail level to adjust pricing until the effect of new Blu-ray player hardware sales is known later on during the year.

New Blu-ray hardware is shipping now and its a historically low time of year to do any major promotions and on top of it all there is the general economic angst to worry about.

I don't think that any serious price adjustments on day and date pricing will occur until August or later, but I think we will start seeing more prominent Blu-ray software sales occurring when the new players arrive at retail next month.

Pretty much the only Blu-ray likely at the consumer level will be the routine advertising of the new video releases each week. No need to advertise Blu-ray until the new 2009 generation Blu-ray players are available to be sold.

I agree with some of these observations especially concerning day-and-date.

However, older catalog titles are a different story entirely. When you can pick up a DVD for only a few dollars--or already have the title on DVD--you are disinclined to pay $$$ for the Blu-ray.

A specific example: Fox is shipping The Robe on Blu-ray this next Tuesday. It lists at $34.98. The same master is also being released on DVD on the same day listing for $19.98. There are older editions for as little as $9.99, and I have the title on LD and DVD already; it has been on home video many times. The film returned its production costs 55 years ago, so everything greater than the cost of the video production and manufacturing is pure profit.

So, why are we being asked to pay such a premium price for the title? And, more importantly from the studios' perspective, wouldn't they be a lot better off to set a more reasonable price for this and similar titles?
post #5750 of 11556
3/14/09 at 4:23am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

I think its more strategic than that.

Retailers do not want to reduce prices to fast , especially on day and date releases, and there is some patience at the retail level to adjust pricing until the effect of new Blu-ray player hardware sales is known later on during the year.

Well the retailers are dropping the prices, it's the wholesale from the studio's that isn't dropping. That leaves little room for retailers.
Retailers don't give a hoot if it's a DVD or a blu ray they look at the margins.
$4 margin on an item that sells 1/10th the volume of an item having $2 margin.

It's studio that should drop the wholesale prices. But that is a tough pill to swallow given the higher br production cost and licensing.

Quote:


New Blu-ray hardware is shipping now and its a historically low time of year to do any major promotions and on top of it all there is the general economic angst to worry about.

I don't think that any serious price adjustments on day and date pricing will occur until August or later, but I think we will start seeing more prominent Blu-ray software sales occurring when the new players arrive at retail next month.
Quote:



The new wonder weapons are going to save the day.
Heard that story before.

Pretty much the only Blu-ray likely at the consumer level will be the routine advertising of the new video releases each week. No need to advertise Blu-ray until the new 2009 generation Blu-ray players are available to be sold.

The blu ray 'exprerience' so far. On my third player, still missing the movie beginning for a few seconds. (HDMI handshake)
Slow player operation, the occasional Firmware/Java issues.

Apart from the image and sound quality there is hardly the 'quality feel' to it that a new format should have..

Advertising isn't going to save blu ray from the bad experiences that many folks trying it out will encounter. Chances are that the next disc for the kids will be the DVD again.

Blu ray is dead if prices do not drop and they persist with the Java crap they are trying to pull.
post #5751 of 11556
3/14/09 at 4:40am
Quote:
Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

I agree with some of these observations especially concerning day-and-date.

However, older catalog titles are a different story entirely. When you can pick up a DVD for only a few dollars--or already have the title on DVD--you are disinclined to pay $$$ for the Blu-ray.

A specific example: Fox is shipping The Robe on Blu-ray this next Tuesday. It lists at $34.98. The same master is also being released on DVD on the same day listing for $19.98. There are older editions for as little as $9.99, and I have the title on LD and DVD already; it has been on home video many times. The film returned its production costs 55 years ago, so everything greater than the cost of the video production and manufacturing is pure profit.

So, why are we being asked to pay such a premium price for the title? And, more importantly from the studios' perspective, wouldn't they be a lot better off to set a more reasonable price for this and similar titles?

This is the classic delimma. Studios want to sell more catalogs on Blu Ray, but their pricing assumes an inelastic demand or a consumer base that isn't price sensitive. At 19.99 I'll most likely buy The Robe. At 29.99 no way! So if the price at which they will sell this type of title is 24.99 and lower why have an MSRP that is out of wack. It creates the wrong impression that Blu Ray is an expensive format.

I know of several people at work who have Blu ray players but never buy disks. I bet they just rent Blu rays and never buy DVDs either. So the studios are losing money. There is a psychological aspect to it when you walk into Best Buy see that the DVD version is often $10 to $20 less than the Blu Ray! It goes from being an automatic buy (had there been only one format) to a difficult decision which usually results in 'let me rent the Blu ray and see if it is worth owning' which results in ' I'll buy it when I want to watch it again....' which results in no sale to the studio.

We are underestimating how badly this is effecting sales of optical media. It's driving people to rentals.
post #5752 of 11556
3/14/09 at 4:43am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Who is downplaying it?

I'm the guy who is taking the time and effort to show it each week along with all the historical data to put it in context.

Besides, that total sales ratio percentage for Blu-ray revenues is just about double this year than it was for last year at the same time.

Besides, in 10 weeks this year Blu-ray has over $137.05 M in revenues when it took 16 weeks for only $74 M last year. Thats almost twice as much revenues in 5/8 of the time.

$13.70 M per week for Blu-ray so far this year , compared to $4.79 per week for the 1st quarter of last year. Thats roughly a tripling of Blu-ray revenues in year to year comparisons. With a lot more players due to be sold later in the year, that is probably going to only accelerate in the higher sales volumes period of the year.



I usually create the chart within the hour of when I can get the data from HMM.

I just posted the HMM chart as so as I saw it, with the latest data before I could spend the time to update and format the data chart.

The specific data to me only makes sense when its placed in a trending perspective. Thats why I think the new summary chart, I've created with the year to year data we know have shows the better perspective.

The seasonal ups and downs and the weekly variations in the release schedules make short term comparisons more problematic.

To me its more significant that Blu-ray has been up 70% from last year and has been up for six weeks straight in the year to year comparisons than seasonally low 1st quarter volumes are below seasonally higher 4th quarter volumes from last year.

To me the data below is the most significant:


=====================================================

Blu-ray 2009 Revenue and Market Share Percentages Highlighted in Red

2008 to 2009 YEAR TO YEAR WEEKLY REVENUE COMPARISON CALCULATIONS (Arranged by Year)
Code:
Date      DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
       revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    rev index   top 20 units   YTY Change

2009
3/08/09 124.23  10.61   134.84   7.87 %      8.54     10 % (BD +69.04% DVD-17.54% TL -14.08% YTY)
3/01/09 138.21  11.85   150.06   7.90 %      8.57      8 % (BD +46.36% DVD-10.16% TL -7.33% YTY
2/22/09 141.64  13.28   154.92   8.57 %      9.38     10 % (BD +29.31% DVD-11.94% TL -9.47 YTY)
2/15/09 153.35  10.78   164.13   6.57 %      7.03      8 % (BD +33.27% DVD-00.25% YTY same week)
2/08/09 142.11  11.00   153.11   7.18 %      7.74      7 % (BD +61.03% DVD-13.32% YTY same week)
2/01/09 115.36  10.27   125.63   8.17 %      8.90     14 % (BD +68.41% DVD-24.30% YTY same week)

2008
3/09/08 150.65   6.28   156.93   4.00 %      4.17    > 4 %  (Calc from 2009 data)
3/02/08 153.84   8.10   161.94   5.00 %      5.26    > 4 %  (Calc from 2009 data)
2/24/08 160.84  10.27   171.11   6.00 %      6.38    > 4 %  (Calc from 2009 data) 
2/17/08 153.73   8.09   161.82   5.00 %      5.20    > 4 %  (Calc from 2009 data)
2/10/08 163.95   6.83   170.78   4.00 %      4.17    > 4 %  (Calc from 2009 data)
2/03/08 152.39   6.10   158.49   3.85 %      4.00    > 4 %  (Calc from 2009 data)
2008 to 2009 YEAR TO YEAR WEEKLY REVENUE COMPARISON CALCULATIONS (Matched Weeks)

Code:
Date      DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
       revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    rev index   top 20 units   YTY Change


3/08/09 124.23  10.61   134.84   7.87 %      8.54     10 % (BD +69.04% DVD-17.54 % TL -14.08% YTY)
3/09/08 150.65   6.28   156.93   4.00 %      4.17    > 4 % (Calc from 2009 data)

3/01/09 138.21  11.85   150.06   7.90 %      8.57      8 % (BD +46.36% DVD-10.16 % TL -7.33% YTY
3/02/08 153.84   8.10   161.94   5.00 %      5.26    > 4 % (Calc from 2009 data)

2/22/09 141.64  13.28   154.92   8.57 %      9.38     10 % (BD +29.31% DVD-11.94 % TL -9.47 YTY)
2/24/08 160.84  10.27   171.11   6.00 %      6.38    > 4 % (Calc from 2009 data) 

2/15/09 153.35  10.78   164.13   6.57 %      7.03      8 % (BD +33.27% DVD-00.25% YTY same week)
2/17/08 153.73   8.09   161.82   5.00 %      5.20    > 4 % (Calc from 2009 data)

2/08/09 142.11  11.00   153.11   7.18 %      7.74      7 % (BD +61.03% DVD-13.32% YTY same week)
2/10/08 163.95   6.83   170.78   4.00 %      4.17    > 4 % (Calc from 2009 data)

2/01/09 115.36  10.27   125.63   8.17 %      8.90     14 % (BD +68.41% DVD-24.30% YTY same week)
2/03/08 152.39   6.10   158.49   3.85 %      4.00    > 4 % (Calc from 2009 data)
2008 1Q+ to 2009 YEAR TO DATE FIRST QUARTER REVENUE COMPARISON CALCULATIONS

Code:
Date Range      DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
             revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    revenue    top 20 units

TOTAL FOR PERIOD
1/4- 3/08/09 1,265.84 137.05  1,402.89   9.77 %  10.83   11.50 % (avg of top 20%'s) 
1/6- 4/20/08 2,573.43  76.61  2,650.04   2.89 %   2.98  > 4.00 % (HMM data of top 20%'s)

WEEKLY AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1/4- 3/08/09   126.58  13.71    140.29   9.77 %  10.83   11.50 %
2/3- 3/09/08   155.90   7.61    163.51   4.65 %   4.88  > 4.00 %  
1/6- 4/20/08   160.83   4.79    165.62   2.89 %   2.98  > 4.00 %   

1Q- 2009 AVERAGES (10 weeks, average per week)  1/04/09 thru 3/08/09)
1Q- 2008 AVERAGES (06 weeks, average per week)  2/03/08 thru 3/08/08)
1Q+ 2008 AVERAGES (16 weeks, average per week)  1/06/08 thru 4/20/08)
2008 FINAL to 2009 YEAR TO DATE ANNUAL REVENUE COMPARISON CALCULATIONS

Code:
Date Range      DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
             revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    revenue    top 20 units

1/4- 3/08/09  1,265.84 137.05  1,402.89   9.97 %  10.83  11.50 % (avg of top 20%'s) 
1/6-12/29/08  8,225.24 627.56  8,852.80   7.09 %   7.63   8.00 % (avg of top 20%'s)

2009 Calculated Year To Date   1/4/09 thru  3/08/09)
2008 Calculated Final for Year 1/6/08 thru 12/28/08)

I was referring to your written highlights summary. In any case, it's OK however you wish to write it up.
post #5753 of 11556
3/14/09 at 5:09am
Quote:
Originally Posted by av.pallino View Post

I was referring to your written highlights summary. In any case, it's OK however you wish to write it up.

I see. But I'm quickly writing that as soon as I can see the link to the HMM data for the week as a heads up before I can take the time to update the statistics chart which takes a bit of effort.

All the data gets there as soon as I can update it.
post #5754 of 11556
3/14/09 at 9:31am
Quote:
Originally Posted by av.pallino View Post

If it were up to me I'd say studios should price Blu Rays at exactly the same price as DVD. That way you'll get people to change their behavior a lot faster and the optical revenue sales decline can be reversed. At worst, price them so that studios make the same per unit whether it is DVD or Blu Ray.

The idea behind treating Blu Ray as a high end niche product is a seriously flawed strategy.

Blaming the economy here makes no sense since entertainment spending including movies, video games and everything but optical disk sales is up. Reason is many people won't buy DVD knowing Blu Ray is better, but won't buy Blu Ray because prices are too high.

Quote:


I know of several people at work who have Blu ray players but never buy disks. I bet they just rent Blu rays and never buy DVDs either. So the studios are losing money. There is a psychological aspect to it when you walk into Best Buy see that the DVD version is often $10 to $20 less than the Blu Ray! It goes from being an automatic buy (had there been only one format) to a difficult decision which usually results in 'let me rent the Blu ray and see if it is worth owning' which results in ' I'll buy it when I want to watch it again....' which results in no sale to the studio.

We are underestimating how badly this is effecting sales of optical media. It's driving people to rentals.

I don't agree with av.pallino very often but he is right on the money here. If there was absolutely no other way to get movies other than on BD then they could get away with the kind of prices they are charging. But their movies are released in far to many other ways ALL of which are way, way cheaper. They have two choices either bring down their prices or stop undercutting themselves. They won't or can't do the later and they won't do the former so I don't see BD sales going any where.


New hardware isn't going to be a saviour either. I have been looking at the pricing of the new Panny and a couple of others that are just getting ready to roll out and the MSRP suggests that these player will be on the shelves for the same price as the current models. You would expect deep discounts in Q4 but the US dollar is almost guaranteed to drop significantly through this year as the deficit starts to eat into the value of the USD. That will limit the ability of these players which all come from Asia to be discounted farther.
post #5755 of 11556
3/14/09 at 10:48am
Quote:
Originally Posted by jvillain View Post

I don't agree with av.pallino very often but he is right on the money here. If there was absolutely no other way to get movies other than on BD then they could get away with the kind of prices they are charging. But their movies are released in far to many other ways ALL of which are way, way cheaper. They have two choices either bring down their prices or stop undercutting themselves. They won't or can't do the later and they won't do the former so I don't see BD sales going any where.

I look at the decision to price high (so far) as being the result of-
1.The studios want to squeeze every last cent out of the early adopters while they can, then when the format becomes more mainstream, they'll lower the pricing accordingly, and/or
2.The studios have done studies and experimented with the pricing, and current pricing is the most effective way to maximize profits for home video sales, when Blu-ray, DVD, downloads, and whatever else are taken into account. After all, Blu-ray is no longer a brand new product. The studios have had plenty of time to figure out what sells at what price and what doesn't, or
3.The studios are populated by morons who are completely clueless and have no business sense.
post #5756 of 11556
3/14/09 at 7:14pm
[quote=Jarod M;16042019...

3.The studios are populated by morons who are completely clueless and have no business sense.[/QUOTE]

Historically, the folks who run the studios have just one skill: they can read last weekend's grosses and copy whatever worked.

In this context this means that someone will stumble upon the right pricing formula and then everyone else will take notice and follow along.

They will soon discover that they need to adjust the pricing and then they will do it. The process just takes a bit of time.
post #5757 of 11556
3/14/09 at 9:41pm
Studios and retailers will eventually find price points that work.

The critical issues are already past for Blu-ray and now adoption speed will just be a matter of time. Consumer electronics manufacturers are building fast 2.0 players in mass market quantities and replacing DVD players at the higher price points.

Studios are continuing not only to do day and date Blu-ray releases of new movies with DVD, they are continuing to author and release the studio back catalog.

Retailers are showing more Blu-ray hardware and software on the shelves and are replacing dormant DVD titles and CDs with Blu-ray facings.

Eventually they will find the mass market price points when more hardware owners get into the mix and they will be motivated to do so this year.

I'm looking forward to see the progress as it unfolds.
post #5758 of 11556
3/14/09 at 11:09pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by av.pallino View Post

We are underestimating how badly this is effecting sales of optical media. It's driving people to rentals.

forget about rentals...
I can go to my local library and have the pick of over 100 BDs for free (well my tax money)

sadly there will be no BD revolution until prices fall across the board

14.99 and lower is the magic price point for me for ownership on catalog
19.99 and lower for new releases
post #5759 of 11556
3/15/09 at 8:04am
Quote:
Originally Posted by musick View Post

forget about rentals...
I can go to my local library and have the pick of over 100 BDs for free (well my tax money)

sadly there will be no BD revolution until prices fall across the board

14.99 and lower is the magic price point for me for ownership on catalog
19.99 and lower for new releases

Agree. But if you take the effort you can find those price points right now.

Currently thats a reality at this very moment at Amazon where over 25% of the current Blu-ray catalog has already reached those price points.

Amazon will often be a leading indicator of future brick and mortar prices for media. Typically its always going to be somewhat cheaper for current titles but it gives an indications of the margins retailers are working with.

Current Amazon Blu-ray Sale: Over 300 Blu-ray Discs as Low as $13.99

$9.99 and Under at Amazon (6)
http://www.amazon.com/gp/feature.htm...cId=1000344851

$14.99 and Under at Amazon (105)
http://www.amazon.com/gp/feature.htm...44851&plpage=1

$19.99 and Under at Amazon (188)
http://www.amazon.com/gp/feature.htm...44851&plpage=1
post #5760 of 11556
3/15/09 at 8:21am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Agree. But if you take the effort you can find those price points right now.

Currently thats a reality at this very moment at Amazon where over 25% of the current Blu-ray catalog has already reached those price points.

Amazon will often be a leading indicator of future brick and mortar prices for media. Typically its always going to be somewhat cheaper for current titles but it gives an indications of the margins retailers are working with.

Current Amazon Blu-ray Sale: Over 300 Blu-ray Discs as Low as $13.99

$9.99 and Under at Amazon (6)
http://www.amazon.com/gp/feature.htm...cId=1000344851

$14.99 and Under at Amazon (105)
http://www.amazon.com/gp/feature.htm...44851&plpage=1

$19.99 and Under at Amazon (188)
http://www.amazon.com/gp/feature.htm...44851&plpage=1

...and a majority of those are stale old catalog titles or movies you can get for $5...$..$7 in the bargain bin...or lousy movies people honestly have no desire to own or at least double dip on.
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: Blu-ray Software
This thread is locked  

Gear mentioned in this thread:

AVS › AVS Forum › Blu-ray & HD DVD › Blu-ray Software › BLU-RAY SALES THREAD: Put all sales figures and comments here!