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post #6841 of 11556
7/14/09 at 8:34am
Here is Grubert's updated Blu-ray market share chart, per week:

Action/horror/thriller
Code:

Date    Title                     Genre       W1  W2  W3  W4  W5  W6  W7  W8
063009  12 Rounds                 Action      13
        Street Fighter The Legend Action      17
062309  The Code                  Thriller    15  17
061609  Friday the 13th           Horror      20  17  16
        Burn Notice: Season 2     Thriller TV  8   -   -
060909  The International         Thriller    20  18  19   -
060209  Defiance                  War         17  16   6  18   -
051909  24: Season 7              Action (TV) 15  12  11  10   -   -   -
        My Bloody Valentine 3D    Horror      21  16  15  15   -   -   -
        True Blood Season 1       Horror (TV) 14  12  12  11   7   9  12
        Valkyrie                  War         20  18  17  14   -  18  20
051209  Taken                     Action      20  18  17  17  18  18  20  22
        Underworld: Rise Lycans   Horror      16  17  18  16  21   7  19   -
        S. Darko                  Horror      12   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
042809  The Uninvited             Horror      10   9   9   -   -   -   -   -
041409  The Spirit                Action      24  19  17  17   -   -   -   -
040709  Day the Earth Stood Still Sci-Fi      21  20  19  20  21  21  22  29
032409  Quantum of Solace         Action      28  27  24  22  23  24  26  25
031709  Punisher: War Zone        Action      19  16  15  46   -   -   -   -
031009  Let the Right One In      Horror      22   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Transporter 3             Action      19  15  16  17  43  23   -   -
021709  Body of Lies              Thriller    21  18  21  20  21  23   -  60
        Midnight Meat Train       Horror      16   -  -    -   -   -   -   -
        Quarantine                Horror      16  13  12  12   -   -   -   -
012709  Lakeview Terrace          Thriller     9   9   5  16   -   -   -   -
        RockNRolla                Action      23  22   -   -   -   -   -   -
012009  Max Payne                 Action      21  18  12  16  14  16  22   -
        Saw V                     Horror      11   9   7   -   -   -   -   -
011309  Mirrors                   Horror      13  12  16   -   -   -   -   -
010609  Babylon A.D.              Action       -  18  21  24  18   -   -   -
        Bangkok Dangerous         Thriller     -  17  16   -  14   -   -   -
        Righteous Kill            Thriller     -  14  17  19  16   -   -   -
122708  Eagle Eye                 Thriller     -   -   -  21  24  48  25  21
122108  Death Race                Action       -   -   -  22  21  27   -   -
121608  The Mummy: Tomb...        Action       -   -   -   -  18  22  21  18
120908  The Dark Knight           Action       -   -   -   -   -  31  30  28
120208  Wanted                    Action       -   -   -   -   -   -  25  28
Comedy/animation/musical/other
Code:

Date    Title                     Genre       W1  W2  W3  W4  W5  W6  W7  W8
063009  Jonas Brothers Concert    Music       11
062309  Confessions of Shopaholic Comedy       5   6
        Inkheart                  Fantasy     13  13
        Pink Panther 2            Comedy       7   7
060909  Fired Up                  Comedy       8   -   -   -
        Gran Torino               Drama       14   5  15  15
        Woodstock 3 Days of Peace Music       21  15  14   -
060209  He's Just Not That Into   Comedy       5   5   1   6   8
        Revolutionary Road        Drama       10  10   -   -   -
        Weeds Season 4            Comedy (TV) 17  13   -   -   -
052609  New in Town               Comedy       4   4   -   -   -   -
051909  Paul Blart: Mall Cop      Comedy       7   7   7   7  10   8   9
051209  Cavalcade Cartoon Comedy  Animation   14  14   -   -   -   -   -   -
050509  Curious Case of B. Button Drama       14  14  12  11  11  14  13  15
        Last Chance Harvey        Drama        4   4   -   -   1   -   -   -
042809  Bride Wars                Comedy       5   6   6   5   6  10   -   -
        Hotel for Dogs            Comedy       3   3   3   4   -   3   -   -
        The Reader [1]            Drama       19   6   -   -   -   -   -   -
042109  Frost/Nixon               Drama       12  11  10   -   -   -   -   -
        Notorious                 Drama       12  11  11  11   -   -   -   -
        The Wrestler              Drama       19  16  16  17   -   -   -   -
040709  Doubt                     Drama        9   8   8   8   9   -   -   -
        Not Easily Broken         Drama        -   3   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Tale of Despereaux        Animation    4   6   6   6   8   -   -   -
        Yes Man                   Comedy      10  10  11  10  10  11   -   -
033109  Bedtime Stories           Comedy      13   8  10  10  10  10  10   -
        Marley & Me               Comedy       7   6   7   7   8   5  10  10
        Seven Pounds              Drama        9   8   9  10  10   4  16   -
        Slumdog Millionaire       Drama       13  11  13  13  13   9  14  16
032409  Tales Black Freighter     Animation   23   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
032209  Bolt                      Animation   20  13   7   2  10  11  11  10
032109  Twilight                  Fantasy      7   8   8   9   9   -  12  25
031009  Cadillac Records          Drama        6   6   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Milk                      Drama       10  10   9   7   -   -   -   -
        Rachel Getting Married    Drama        5   5   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Role Models               Comedy      12  11  12  11  10  10  11  13
        South Park 12th Season    Animation    8   7   -   -   -   -   -   -
030309  Australia                 Drama       12  13  12  14  11  14  12  15
        Beverly Hills Chihuahua   Comedy       3   3   3   -   3   1   6   6
        Watchmen Motion Comic     Animation   29   -   -  23   -   -   -   -
        Wonder Woman              Animation   14  13   -   -   -   -   -   -
022409  Futurama Into the Wild... Animation   10   9   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Sex Drive                 Comedy      13  10  12   -   -   -   -   -
021709  Changeling                Drama        8   8   9   9   9   -   -   -
        High School Musical 3     Musical      5   6   4   3   3   3   3   1
021009  Miracle at St. Anna       Drama       18  17  19  18  12   -   -   -
        Nights in Rodanthe        Romance      8   6   7   7   -   -   -   -
        Soul Men                  Comedy       4   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
        W.                        Drama        9   8   -   -   -   -   -   -
020309  Afro Samurai Resurrection Animation   19   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Madagascar Escape 2       Animation    9   8   6  13  12  10  12   4
        Nick and Norah's...       Comedy       8   8   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Rent: Filmed Live...      Musical     15   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
        The Secret Life of Bees   Drama        3   4   4   -   -   -   -   -
        Space Buddies             Family       3   3   2   -   3   -   -   -
        Zack and Miri Make...     Comedy      11  10  12  15  15  16  17  17
012709  Hulk Vs.                  Animation   16  13  13   -   -   -   -   -
        Open Season 2             Animation    3   4   4   -   -   -   -   -
        Pride and Glory           Drama       17  14  16  16   -   -   -   -
        Vicky Cristina Barcelona  Comedy       7   -  15   -   -   -   -   -
012009  Igor                      Animation    6   8   -   -   -   -   -   -
        The Express               Drama       10   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
011309  Appaloosa                 Western     12  14  13  13  17   -   -   -
        My Best Friend's Girl     Comedy       8   8   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Swing Vote                Comedy       6   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
010609  Pineapple Express         Comedy       -   -  12  12  13  13  15  12
122308  Burn After Reading        Comedy       -   -   -  12   -   -   -   -
121608  Mamma Mia!                Musical      -   -   -   -   9  11  11   9
120908  Horton Hears a Who!       Animated     -   -   -   -   -   8  11   -
120208  Step Brothers             Comedy       -   -   -   -   -   -  12  16
[1] The Reader was released on DVD on April 14 and on BD on April 28.

Gear mentioned in this thread:

post #6842 of 11556
7/15/09 at 11:28am
This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

FYI

The chart blow says as of June 7 but IMHO it looks to me that its data through the 1Q 2009. I don't see Mall Cop or Taken or Underworld Lycans etc on the list.


post #6843 of 11556
7/15/09 at 11:29am
This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.
post #6844 of 11556
7/15/09 at 11:30am
This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.
post #6845 of 11556
7/15/09 at 1:29pm
It will be interesting to see if there is a bump in software sales over the next month.

Brandon
post #6846 of 11556
7/15/09 at 3:10pm
First reports for the week ending 7/12/09


The Top 2 titles both did 18% Blu-ray marketshare share and the #3 title did 13%.


Quote:
'Knowing' Takes Top Spot

By : Thomas K. Arnold | Posted: 15 Jul 2009
tarnold@questex.com


Upstart studio Summit Entertainment scored its second No. 1 DVD hit this year, with the sci-fi thriller Knowing debuting in the top spot on both the national sales and rental charts.

Knowing, an $80 million box office hit starring Nicolas Cage as a college professor who opens a mysteriously prophetic time capsule at his son’s school, debuted at No. 1 on the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales chart as well as Home Media Magazine’s rental chart for the week ended July 12, less than four months after the megahit Twilight accomplished the same feat. Twilight remains the year’s top-selling DVD, with upwards of 6 million discs sold.

Summit also claimed the No. 2 spot on both the sales and the rental chart with another sci-fi entry, Push, which earned $31.8 million in theaters. On the sales front, Push sold nearly 60% as many copies as Knowing but generated only 47% as much rental activity.

Universal Studios snagged the No. 3 spot on both charts with the horror film The Unborn, which earned $42.7 million in U.S. theaters.

Knowing also was the week’s top-selling Blu-ray Disc, according to Nielsen VideoScan research, with Push following at No. 2 and The Unborn trailing at No. 3.

Knowing generated 18% of its total unit sales from the Blu-ray Disc edition, according to Nielsen, the same as Push. For The Unborn, Blu-ray Disc sales accounted for 13% of total unit sales.

When Twilight came out, just 3% of first-week sales came from the Blu-ray Disc. That’s because Summit only released the Blu-ray Disc edition of the film to Target Stores and Best Buy on its March 21 street date, waiting until May 5, more than six weeks later, to go wide.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...top-spot-16377

This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

top 20 sellers
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...ek-ended-71209

top 20 Blu-ray
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...ek-ended-71209

top 20 rentals
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...ek-ended-71209
post #6847 of 11556
7/15/09 at 4:07pm
Usually the top 3 titles, if they are available on Blu-ray strongly influence the pie chart.

It should be a very strong top 20 pie chart week for Blu-ray then.

Most if not all of the top 10 rentals for the week , are available on Blu-ray so it probably won't be like last week where 9 of the top 20 bestselling titles did not even have a Blu-ray version available.

Code:
Top 10 Rental Titles                                            7/12/09
1       100.00  Knowing
2       46.92   Push
3       40.89   The Unborn
4       35.90   12 Rounds
5       35.38   Confessions of a Shopaholic
6       34.98   Gran Torino
7       34.70   The Code
8       34.66   Inkheart
9       33.52   The Pink Panther 2
10      31.53   Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li
These are the pie chart trend charts valid updated through the 7/5/09 last weeks data (not todays yet)



post #6848 of 11556
7/15/09 at 4:28pm
There were some surprises in that top 50 all time chart. Transformers way down at 20 would be one example. I figured Ironman had to have gone through 1,00,000 a while ago but I wonder when it actually did it?

I know sales are supposed to look sucky this time of year but yeesh!
post #6849 of 11556
7/15/09 at 5:04pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jvillain View Post

There were some surprises in that top 50 all time chart. Transformers way down at 20 would be one example. I figured Ironman had to have gone through 1,00,000 a while ago but I wonder when it actually did it?

I know sales are supposed to look sucky this time of year but yeesh!

When I looked it at when it came out a few weeks ago I saw quite a few 2Q titles that should have been on it based on its ending date. That chart looked like it was the though only the 1Q 2009 Nielsen Videoscan first alert numbers and did not have any April May or June 2009 sales data in it.
post #6850 of 11556
7/15/09 at 5:08pm
Transformers in Blu-ray suffered a bit in unit sales because of the HD DVD vs Blu-ray format war as a lot of PS3 owners bought it as a DVD when it came out day and date (with no day and date Blu-ray release version ) and a lot of first adopter home video high attach rate owners bought it as the big 2007 HD DVD release back in the day.
post #6851 of 11556
7/15/09 at 7:09pm
OK my SWAG calculation is 14.71%

So I'm going with 15% as the Blu-ray pie chart percentage for the week ending 5/12/09.

14% or 15% seems about right just on the surface based on the top 3 titles Blu-ray marketshare. That would be 2nd best of the year and 3rd or 4th best of all time. Hmm.
post #6852 of 11556
7/15/09 at 7:11pm
Another estimate was 13.897% rounded to 14% by cakefoo.
post #6853 of 11556
7/16/09 at 8:10am
http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=3121

Quote:


BD Sales Information: July 6-12 (Update)
Posted July 17, 2009 06:00 AM by Juan Calonge

'Knowing' and 'Push', two titles from independent studio Summit Entertainment, topped the Blu-ray sales chart for the week ended July 12, according to Nielsen VideoScan First Alert. The third place went to another new release, Universal's horror movie 'The Unborn'. 'Gran Torino' is proving to have as long an active life as its director, and was number 4 in its fifth week.

Thus, it seems that Summit's decision to launch those two titles simultaneously and cross-promote them (see our post of June 16) worked.

Here is the Blu-ray top 10 (previous-week ranking in parenthesis):
• Knowing
• Push
• The Unborn
(2) Gran Torino
(3) Transformers
(6) Taken
(1) 12 Rounds
(8) Ghostbusters
(9) The Dark Knight
(11) Quantum of Solace
The releases of the previous week didn't have a lot of legs. The previous week's top seller, '12 Rounds', had a big drop to seventh place. 'Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li', which had entered at number 4 and 5, didn't even make the top 10 in their second week.

As regards market share, both 'Knowing' and 'Push' had a 18% Blu-ray sales ratio, whereas 'The Unborn' had 13%.

Update

Home Media Magazine has now published the pie chart comparing aggregate unit sales of the top 20 BDs versus the top 20 DVDs. The split for this week is 13% BD: 87% DVD.

Total revenue from BD sales was $16.16 million, up 149.25% from the same week last year. In turn, DVD revenue was $145.03 million, down 8.85% year-on-year.

BD accounted for 10.0% of total packaged-media sales revenue.

Source: Home Media Magazine | Permalink | Relevant for:
post #6854 of 11556
7/16/09 at 8:29am
I think the odds are pretty good Blu-ray revenues will rebound to what their year to date average has been which is now $16.14 M per week. Since the middle of March, about when the new Blu-ray hardware started arriving, the weeks ending 4/19/09 and 7/05/09 as been the only ones below $15 M and they were very low release and holiday affected circumstances.

Only other week that was as low as last week was 4/19/09 where the post Easter DVD sale revenues were pretty bleak too.

I think its likely that we will be above $15 M especially with the high Blu-ray market share for the top 3 titles.

These graphs are through 7/05/09 and don't have the 7/12/09 data yet added.



post #6855 of 11556
7/16/09 at 8:37am
Units were way down last week 7/05/09 for Blu-ray and thats probably not going to be the case this week so thats going to bring those sales back toward average as well. Last week was a real outlier with the long July 4 holiday weekend and no releases.

post #6856 of 11556
7/16/09 at 12:18pm
VB story with the good parts bolded

Quote:
From VideoBusiness.com:

Home entertainment revenue slips 3.9% in first half

PHYSICAL: DEG: Growth in Blu-ray, rental, electronic distribution offset steep DVD drop

By Marcy Magiera and Susanne Ault -- Video Business, 7/16/2009

JULY 16 | PHYSICAL: Total U.S. home entertainment spending for the first half of 2009 slipped just 3.9%, according to DEG: The Digital Entertainment Group, with a still steep decline in DVD sales being largely offset by growth in Blu-ray Disc sales, packaged media rental and electronic distribution.

DEG sized the entire pie at $9.73 billion for the half, including $3.4 billion in DVD and Blu-ray rentals, which were up 8.3%; $968 million in digital sales and rentals, including cable and satellite video-on-demand, up 21%; and $5.4 billion in DVD and Blu-ray sales, off 13.5%.

Blu-ray sales, which were up 91% to $407 million, offset declines in the studios’ core DVD sales business, which at slightly less than $5 billion for the half, was off in the neighborhood of 17%, according to Video Business calculations. DEG did not break out DVD sales in its announcement.

Studio consensus is that the recession continues to dramatically impact consumer disc spending, pushing people to rent rather than make the relatively more expensive purchase.

Studios and retailers continue to grapple with a home entertainment industry in transition to new formats, including Blu-ray and digital downloads and streaming in the midst of the worst U.S. recession in decades.

New release DVD and Blu-ray sales were down significantly in the first half, estimated Sony Pictures Home Entertainment president David Bishop. At the same time, DVD rental machines are on a giant upswing, with Redbox slated to soar from 14,000 current locations to 22,000 by next year.

“People are trying to save money, and there is strong evidence that consumers are trading down. They are renting instead of buying,” said Bishop. “That is the growth category now in DVD.”

Redbox and other $1 per night kiosks are fueling the growth in the rental market, with consumer spending in the channel up more than 150% in the first quarter, according to Rentrak.

That anticipation of lower revenue from titles has led studios such as Sony to adjust downward their projections on how theatrical films will play on shelves. However, regardless of their economic situation, consumers are devouring adult comedy, action-heavy and cult fan titles.

“We are down somewhere between 15% to 20% from last year, so that becomes your baseline for films going forward,” said Bishop. “R-rated comedy, cult-fan base and action-adventure films seem to be less susceptible. It’s not immune to the downturn, but relative to other categories, it is.”

Sony found this to be the case with May 12 hit release Underworld: Rise of the Lycans, as it sold at a pre-recession rate.

“That really performed at historical levels,” added Bishop. “And it was able to do this with DVD/Blu-ray sales down as much as 20%.”

20th Century Fox Home Entertainment president Mike Dunn said that budget-conscious consumers are grabbing titles at retail more slowly than in years past, but eventually, many of the studio’s titles are hitting their sales targets. March 31 title Marley & Me and May 12 title Taken are expected to each sell 5 million units, exceeding the studios’ expectations for the movies by more than 15%.

Studio execs are encouraged by Blu-ray’s continued momentum, with software sales about double what they were at the half-way mark in 2008. This strength comes even as Blu-ray still carries a price tag premium over standard-definition DVD.

“Last year, about 8% to 10% of our title copies were on Blu-ray, and now that’s up to 10% to 15%,” Lionsgate president/chief operating officer Steve Beeks said. “There is growth in the Blu-ray marketplace.”

Blu-ray’s sales trajectory beats most other products in the general marketplace, note studios. Videogames, which have been retail’s golden child for the last couple of years, have stalled as once red-hot consoles such as the Wii have matured.

“The only other product category with [Blu-ray] growth might be smart phones,” said Dunn.

Rising digital revenue is offering another silver lining to the cloudy economy, as Web-enabled TVs, Blu-ray players and game consoles are offering increasing numbers of ways for consumers to stream and download studio films for playback on television sets. Lionsgate reports that people downloaded its movies 1.5 million times in the first half of the year, generating a 92% jump in revenue over the same frame in 2008.

“There are more devices getting movies to the TV, and we are focused on uploading as many of our 12,000 library titles as we can" for downloading/streaming, said Beeks. “The overall consumer appetite for movies continues to grow.”

Also within emerging technologies, cable/satellite video-on-demand is delivering new revenue streams for studios. Fox reports that Bride Wars generated a healthy $15 million in revenue alone for cable/satellite VOD.

Studios are upbeat that this fourth quarter will represent a dramatic turnaround for the business, taking into account its growth areas such as Blu-ray and digital. A steady stream of summer theatrical blockbusters, including Star Trek, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen and Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, bodes well for their DVD releases in the last part of 2009.

Dunn believes the October-November frame will show improved consumer spending over the comparable period in 2008.

“The table is set for the future, where the industry has done a nice job in building the infrastructure to re-take the category probably by the fourth quarter,” said Dunn. "The world fell apart for the consumer last year, and they re-aligned their habits. But the table is set for the future.”

http://www.videobusiness.com/article...?desc=topstory
post #6857 of 11556
7/16/09 at 12:43pm
Here's the Home Media Magazine Story (Different Headline)

Quote:


Home Entertainment Holding Up Well, DEG Says

By : Thomas K. Arnold | Posted: 16 Jul 2009
tarnold@questex.com


Numbers released by an industry trade group show the home entertainment business is weathering the Great Recession remarkably well, although the troubled economy is prompting more consumers to return to their old habit of renting rather than buying videos.

Consumer spending on DVD, Blu-ray Disc and digitally distributed programming was off 3.9% in the first six months of 2009 from the first half of 2008, according to DEG: The Digital Entertainment Group, coming in at an estimated $9.73 billion.

Consumer spending on DVD and Blu-ray Disc purchases took the hardest hit, slipping 13.5% in the first half, largely due to a weak first quarter in which sales tumbled 15%. The first-half tally was further bolstered by a 91% gain in Blu-ray Disc sales (to $407 million) and a 21% rise in digital distribution spending (to $968 million, which includes $196 million for electronic sellthrough).

Rental spending, on the other hand, was up an impressive 8.3%, again boosted by a significant (62%) gain in Blu-ray Disc spending but also aided by the proliferation of rental kiosks.

“Despite an extraordinarily challenging marketplace, the home entertainment sector continues to be remarkably stable overall, particularly with the growth of higher-margin businesses like Blu-ray Disc and digital distribution,” said Warner Home Video president Ron Sanders, president of the DEG.

He notes that home entertainment’s net operating profit contribution was down just 2.2% in the first half of 2009, because the studios get a bigger cut from Blu-ray Disc and digital distribution sales than they do from standard DVD.

Blu-ray Disc software sales were up 91% at retail in the first six months of this year, according to DEG figures compiled by the DEG with input from suppliers and retailers. Nearly 20 million Blu-ray Discs shipped to retail in the second quarter of the year, according to figures compiled by Swicker & Associates on behalf of the DEG — 57% more than in the same period last year.

Also, Blu-ray Disc hardware sales exceeded 2 million units in the first half of 2009, up nearly 25% from the first half of 2008. The total installed base of Blu-ray playback devices in U.S. homes, including Sony PlayStation 3 video game consoles, is now estimated at nearly 11 million units.

Meanwhile, the number of high-definition households continues to grow, adding to Blu-ray’s potential customer base. According to figures compiled by the DEG and based on data from the Consumer Electronics Association, retailers and manufacturers, more than 10 million HDTVs were sold to consumers in the first half of 2009. That brings the household penetration of HDTVs in the United States to approximately 44 million, up 13% from the end of last year and representing 38% of all U.S. households.

Bob Chapek, president of Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment and chairman of the DEG, looked at the numbers and sounded an optimistic note.

“The overwhelming satisfaction expressed by consumers with regard to Blu-ray shows great promise to the industry’s economic future and we are also optimistic regarding their appetite toward digital technologies,” Chapek said. “Both formats, converging together and resulting in one cohesive consumer experience, will present an opportunity for the industry to return to growth and eclipse our previous benchmarks.”
post #6858 of 11556
7/16/09 at 1:02pm
At this moment my Home Media Magazine estimates for Blu-ray and DVD sell through are close to this DEG release and the trends in the Blu-ray growth are comparable, the difference is in the estimate for last years DVD sales in the 1Q 2008 which the DEG has as a bit higher, which is the difference in their estimations of Wal-Mart sales and in the accounting for the difference in the rounding of the first week and the last week of the period . My stats start in to the first week of the 1Q as in 01/06/08 and 01/04/09 and end on even week Sundays of 06/28/09 and 06/29/08 so the reported period is slightly different.

No real clash. The estimates for 2009 DEG and HMM stats for sell through are very close as are the changes and estimates for 2008 and 2009 Blu-ray sales.'

The only major difference in the estimate is the DEG is showing a higher figures for 2008 DVD revenues and that can be accounted for by the different reporting periods and 5% variation in the estimation of Wal-Mart DVD sales in 2008.

The 2009 figures are basically the same with just some slight rounding and reporting period variation. The 2008 difference is for DVD sales as DEG has them higher than HMM does for the 1Q 2008 and thats mostly the Wal-Mart estimation factor and the even week rounding of the quarters.
post #6859 of 11556
7/16/09 at 1:41pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by comixguru View Post

The DEG reported a significantly different picture. Apparently the first alert numbers from HMM are not the whole marketplace for the studios... at least, not as reported by the DEG.



This is not to say that Blu-ray wasn't the bright spot in the first half.



Looks like the numbers were much closer to those reported this time around. SD DVD under-reported in HMM numbers vs. DEG ($5.0B vs. $4.8B) and BR over reported ($425 vs. $407).

The real difference must be in the historical 2008 numbers. A 17% dip in SD DVD numbers means SD DVD enjoyed something like $6B in sell through last year vs a mere $5.2B reported in the HMM numbers. This jives with VideoBusiness's own $6.17B in total sell through last year when you remove the $200M of BR.

I agree that the difference is in the 1Q & 2Q 2008 DVD numbers. DEG has them higher.


The major difference is in the rounding of the reporting periods and in the estimations of January 2008 DVD sales for Wal-Mart.

The rounding of even weeks for the HMM numbers to coincide with the Nielsen Videoscan reporting periods of Monday to Sunday is magnified in impact for the first week of the quarter. HMM credits less in January 2008 to Wal-Mart than the DEG does for DVD sales and their overall Wal-Mart DVD sales estimation seems to be about 5% low for 2008 and about 2% high for 2009 by my estimations.

Saying DVD was down 17% is a crazy way to say it as obviously Blu-ray has substituted for much of the attrition for DVD now.
post #6860 of 11556
7/16/09 at 3:09pm
Here's my disclaimer on the HMM revenue data charts. A few months ago I figured out that the weekly rounding plumped up the 2009 revenues a bit YTY because of the even week rounding.

Quote:


These charts completely include the week ending 1/4/09 data in this years 2009 figures and are counting the 12/28/08 through 12/31/09 data as 2009 revenues . So its reasonable to attribute $10 M of Blu-ray sales on these charts and $100 M in DVD sales that occurred during those days as 2008 sales. These charts show those days as being attributed to YTD 2009 sales and not EOY 2008 sales.
post #6861 of 11556
7/16/09 at 3:45pm
Quote:


http://www.engadgethd.com/2009/07/16...rst-half-of-2/

Blu-ray celebrates 91 percent sales increase for first half of 2009

Remember back in May when Blu-ray sales were reportedly up 72 percent for 2009? Turns out the high definition disc business is doing even better than that. The Digital Entertainment Group is reporting a 91 percent sales increase year-on-year, totaling $407 million, for the first six months of this year -- an impressive feat, especially in this recession climate. Blu-ray rentals, too, saw a 61 percent increase, and on the less tangible side of things, digital distribution rose 21 percent. Despite all this, the report noted that overall consumer spending on prerecorded entertainment dropped 3.1 percent, and net profit down 2.2 percent... come on UMD, pick up the slack.

Source: http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-...eed&subj=Crave

Blu-ray sales up 91 percent in first half of 2009

Back in April, we reported that sales for Blu-ray Discs had nearly doubled in the first quarter compared with the year before, according to Adams Media Research. Now the Digital Entertainment Group (DEG) has issued a press release saying that U.S. Blu-ray sales are up 91 percent in the first half of 2009, which indicates that the format is maintaining its growth pace despite the recession.

Blu-ray and digital downloads were a bright spot in the DEG's report. Overall, consumer spending for prerecorded entertainment was down 3.9 percent compared with the same period last year, with net profit down 2.2 percent. However, the DEG noted that spending was up in the second quarter and that higher margin products like Blu-ray and digital downloads had a favorable impact on the bottom line.

"Although consumer spending on sellthrough packaged media was down 13.5 percent in the first half of 2009," the release says, "this was partially offset by the growth of Blu-ray (up 91 percent to $407 million) and digital distribution (up 21 percent to $968 million, which includes $196 million for electronic sellthough)." Additionally, rental spending was up 8.3 percent for the first half of 2009, "boosted by an increase in Blu-ray rental spending, which was up 62 percent."

Comments? If you own a Blu-ray player, what's your ratio on renting vs. buying? And, Blu-ray detractors, do you think digital downloads will make Blu-ray a niche product sooner rather than later?

Thats impressive spin
post #6862 of 11556
7/16/09 at 5:01pm
DVD and DVD+BD was down in 1Q 2009 compared to 1Q 2008 by $155.67 M but actually is up by a tiny $1.33 M in the 2Q comparison in the HMM stats.

That is for the first time ever, Blu-ray totally made up for any decline in DVD revenues during a sales period. Still down a bit for the year, but the 2Q 2008 to 2Q 2009 comparison has Blu-ray making up for any DVD revenue decline.

My revenue stats are based on the HMM Home Media Magazine Research published data from the pie chart stats on their front page . If the Nielsen Videoscan stats say that as well for the 2Q thats an important threshold if someone in the industry can say with a straight face that Blu-ray actually totally made up for DVDs attrition during that sales period.

Code:
PERIOD              DVD   Blu-ray   DVD+BD

1Q  2009          2,419.11  196.62   2,615.72
1Q  2008          2,681.08   90.31   2,771.39

2Q  2009          2,402.98  228.51   2,631.49
2Q  2008          2,533.37   96.79   2,630.16

1Q+2Q 2009        4,822.09  425.12   5,247.21 
1Q+2Q 2008        5,214.45  187.10   5,401.55
post #6863 of 11556
7/16/09 at 5:02pm
post #6864 of 11556
7/16/09 at 7:22pm
You missed.
post #6865 of 11556
7/16/09 at 7:41pm
Quote:


You missed.

Yeah I know I did.

Still my two calculations were ranging at 13.29% to 14.71% and a lot depends on the rounding of the Blu-ray market share of the top titles as its only given as an even number on the charts.

Like this week ending 7/12/09 Knowing and Push had a 18% market share and were 100.00 and 59.67 index numbers. Thats about half of the top 20 calculation alone right there.

If they were actually 17.51% or 18.49% instead of 18.00% as we only get the even number 18% on the Top 20 Sellers chart, that 1% of variation right there that unavoidable.

But I did not miss by much
post #6866 of 11556
7/16/09 at 8:29pm
Quote:


What's the % of sales for Q1 and Q2 for BD? ...

Its about twice what it was last year at this time

It also will get better still in the second half of the year.

Code:
At the moment, the percentage for BD / (DVD+BD) revenues is: 

01/04/09 - 07/12/09    8.12 %

01/06/08 - 07/13/08    3.48 %
01/06/08 - 12/28/08    4.51 %


At the moment, the percentage for BD / (DVD+BD) top 20 units is: 

01/04/09 - 07/05/09   11.41 %
01/06/08 - 07/06/08    5.44 %

01/06/08 - 12/28/08    7.46 %
post #6867 of 11556
7/17/09 at 1:14am
This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.
post #6868 of 11556
7/17/09 at 1:16am
This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.
post #6869 of 11556
7/17/09 at 1:18am
2008 to 2009 Year to Year Revenue Comparison Summary

Updated thru week ending 7/12/09


This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.
post #6870 of 11556
7/17/09 at 1:29am
Well we dodged the plane flying into the Alps scenario this week with those intersecting lines...



last week



pull up! pull up! pull up!

this week





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