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BLU-RAY SALES THREAD: Put all sales figures and comments here! - Page 275  

post #8221 of 11556
4/15/10 at 11:45pm
This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

Gear mentioned in this thread:

post #8222 of 11556
4/15/10 at 11:46pm
2008 to 2009 to 2010 Year to Year Revenue Comparison Summary

Updated thru week ending 4/11/10

Code:
2009 to 2010 YTYx      YTY +% (Week Ending 1/03/10-4/11/10 compared to matching 2009 period)
                              (HMM reported revenues)
Blu-ray    1.645       64.47 %
DVD        0.923       -7.71 %
DVD+BD     0.976       -2.44 %
This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.
post #8223 of 11556
4/16/10 at 9:07am
FYI Last year for the comparable week there was a large sale for Easter on DVD titles and those revenues were almost $300 for the week.

The year to year metric is poor this week mostly because its being compared to an exceptionally great week last year of almost $300 million for DVD with a lot of Disney titles were sold on an Easter holiday sale in the comparable week for 2009.

Also because studios and retailers made space in the release schedule this week for Lord of the Rings: The Motion Picture Trilogy on Blu-ray, the only new release on home video was First Look’s Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans, with only $1.7 M total box office performance and the TBO was down 99% from the year before.


Code:
Code:
Date             DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
Week Ending   revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    rev index   top 20 units   YTY Change
    2010
                            TBO   9.41 -94.60%
04/11/10        119.99  18.57   138.56  13.40%  15.48 20.75%(BD  -5.06% DVD -59.52% TL -56.15% YTY) * TBO was only <2M LOTR BD week
04/12/09        296.43  19.56   315.99   6.19%   6.60    7% (BD+172.86% +27.63% DVD TL +33.44% YTY)
04/13/08        237.42   5.52   242.94   2.27%   2.32    5% TBO 08/09 271.84+124.49%


Code:
04/12/09  8,277,770  93%    8,900,828   7%    623,058   7.53 Bedtime Stories (Easter Sales)
04/13/08  4,094,727  95%    4,310,239   5%    215,512   5.26 Water Horse - Legend of the Deep There Will Be Blood
Code:
New that week:

Bedtime Stories
The Day the Earth Stood Still (2009)
The Tale of Despereaux
Yes Man
Doubt
Not Easily Broken
Tigger and Pooh and a Musical Too
Scooby-Doo and the Samurai Sword
Code:
US DVD Sales Chart for Week Ending Apr 12, 2009


1,546,129       Bedtime Stories
1,322,714       Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa
1,091,258       Bolt
978,236 The Day the Earth Stood Still (2009)
896,910 Marley and Me
749,409 The Tale of Despereaux
610,721 Yes Man
491,617 Twilight
478,419 Kung Fu Panda
425,649 Slumdog Millionaire
384,677 Beverly Hills Chihuahua
348,343 Doubt
338,757 Madagascar
333,345 Pinocchio
320,049 High School Musical 3: Senior Year
254,184 Seven Pounds
241,660 Not Easily Broken
234,084 Quantum of Solace
214,912 Bee Movie
205,017 Tigger and Pooh and a Musical Too
188,628 Shrek the Third
173,476 Role Models
163,890 Scooby-Doo and the Samurai Sword
133,510 WALL-E
91,585  Australia
55,292  Milk
54,975  Transporter 3
53,972  The Punisher: War Zone

http://www.the-numbers.com/dvd/chart...9/20090412.php


http://forums.highdefdigest.com/1516493-post1101.html
Quote:
Originally Posted by comixguru View Post

Perhaps you need to poke your head out of the cave every once in a while. There was a huge sale at Target this particular week. [ending 4/12/09] B1G1 on BR titles already mentioned. And great prices on a number of Disney, Dreamworks, and Fox titles. Thus the huge surge on a number of titles in the SD DVD lists. Probably lots of volume created under the top 20 titles as a result, too.

Quote:
Disney DVD Sale:
$13.99 each - All look to be the single disc versions

High School Musical 3
Pinocchio
Space Buddies
Price Caspian
WallE
Beverly Hills Chihuahua
Bolt

Dreamworks DVD Sale:
$6.99 each - All look to be the single disc versions

Kung Fu Panda
Secrets of the Furious Five
Bee Move
Madagascar
Madagascar 2
Shrek the Third

$13.99 - Buy one get one free (All single disc)

Ice Age
Jumper
The Happenings
Narnia : Lion, Witch and the Wardrobe
The Bourne Ultimatum
Mr. Magoriums Wonder Emporium
What Happens in Vegas

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

The-numbers top 20 DVD titles unit sales data is up for the week ending 4/12/09 (Easter week) Its interesting to see how the holiday and promotions affected the units sold of a lot of the family DVD titles.

http://www.the-numbers.com/dvd/chart...y/thisweek.php

Code:
Units this Week      % Change           Title

1     1,462,555     562.20%           Bedtime Stories
2       883,383            -.-%                Day the Earth Stood Still, The
3       729,084            16.60%     Bolt
4       726,305            -52.40%             Marley and Me
5       577,270             -.-%               Tale of Despereaux, The
6       537,196            173.70%            Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa
7       531,931            -.-%                Yes Man
8       414,927            -35.60%             Twilight
9       273,059     -67.60%             Slumdog Millionaire
10      258,287     -.-%                Doubt
11      240,151            117.20%            Beverly Hills Chihuahua
12      225,526            218.00%            High School Musical 3: Senior Year
13      223,040     -55.90%             Seven Pounds
14      217,628     -.-%                Not Easily Broken
15      207,978            300.50%            Kung Fu Panda
16      176,530            76.20%             Pinocchio
17      169,949     -54.10%             Quantum of Solace
18      156,640     -.-%                Tigger and Pooh and a Musical Too
19      156,493            274.50%            Madagascar
20      109,838     -.-%                Bee Movie
        
Total Units 8,277,770

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/1515613-post1098.html

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

And some info about last week:

'Madagascar 2' returns to top of DVD chart

Quote:
Fueled by price promotions at major retailers, Paramount Home Entertainment's release of the DreamWorks hit "Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa" vaulted to the top of the national home video sales chart for the third time after 10 weeks in stores.

The animated family film beat a high-octane newcomer, 20th Century Fox's "The Day the Earth Stood Still," which rode a $79.4 million boxoffice gross to debut at No. 4 on the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales chart.

Also outselling the sci-fi feature its first week in stores: Walt Disney Studios' "Bedtime Stories," at No. 2, and "Bolt," also from Disney, which in its fourth week in stores took the No. 3 spot.

The previous week's top seller, 20th Century Fox's "Marley & Me," slipped to No. 5.

"The Day the Earth Stood Still" did capture the top spot on Home Media Magazine's video rental chart for the week ending April 12, with the previous week's top renter, "Marley & Me," slipping to No. 2, though it did still generate 67.8% as much rental activity as the week's No. 1 rental.

"The Day the Earth Stood Still" easily topped the Nielsen VideoScan Blu-ray Disc chart, selling twice as many copies as second-ranked "Bedtime Stories." Nielsen data shows 21% of the sci-fi hit's total sales were on the Blu-ray Disc format.

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/1509491-post1047.html
post #8224 of 11556
4/16/10 at 10:55am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post


Can you provide some explaination of what this chart is describing? From the chart it seems to assert that BD had 50% as many movie disk unit sales as DVD.
post #8225 of 11556
4/16/10 at 11:02am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

FYI Last year for the comparable week there was a large sale for Easter on DVD titles and those revenues were almost $300 for the week.

The year to year metric is poor this week mostly because its being compared to an exceptionally great week last year of almost $300 million for DVD with a lot of Disney titles were sold on an Easter holiday sale in the comparable week for 2009.

What was the comparable sales for Easter this year vs Easter last year?

What is the relative BO strength for the first quarter of 2010 vs Q1 of 2009?
post #8226 of 11556
4/16/10 at 1:38pm
Quote:


Can you provide some explaination of what this chart is describing? From the chart it seems to assert that BD had 50% as many movie disk unit sales as DVD.



Its labeled "Software shipments in millions"

Its another poster's chart of the DEG software shipped unit data by format and its shifted so each format trend line is shifted to be by time after launch, by comparable year. So each trendline is based on how many months after each format started and the volumes of software units shipped to retailers.

So its showing that the Blu-ray trend line is similar in pattern to the DVD trend line pattern over time, but that DVD achieved a higher volumes of shipment in the third year after it launched than Blu-ray did. At that period Blu-ray is showing that it shipped about half as many units in that 4Q than DVD did. All in all it implies that Blu-ray is showing a similar pattern to what DVD did but the volumes it is hitting in the years after it launched is lagging what DVD did by about a year.

Its is not showing sales, it is showing shipped units (which may be a proxy for anticipated or expected sales) roughly relative to the same period after each format's launch.
post #8227 of 11556
4/16/10 at 1:45pm
Quote:


What was the comparable sales for Easter this year vs Easter last year?

Easter in 2009 was on April 12, and the week ending 4/12/09 had included Easter Week sales and was a prominent sales event last year with many DVD sales and discounts.

Easter in 2010 was a week earlier in the sequence with the week ending 4/04/10. Last week for Easter week DVD did $245.92 M , Blu-ray did $34.01 M. compared to to the week of 4/11/10 of $119.99 M and $18.57 M.

So the year to year comparison is also of a holiday sales week last year to the year after the holiday sales week this year.
post #8228 of 11556
4/16/10 at 2:44pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post

What is the relative BO strength for the first quarter of 2010 vs Q1 of 2009?

Home Media Magazine did not start including the total box office numbers until the second week of February last year so I had to back calculate the numbers for the first 5 weeks of 1Q 2009 for the total box office (TBO) of the new releases for those weeks. So YMMV here.

I get $2136.11 M ($2.136 billion) for the cumulative TBO for 1Q 2009 and $2505.38 M ($2.505 billion) for the cumulative TBO for 1Q 2010. That would be a 17.29% increase.

But the TBO is useful for a rough guideline and prediction factor for each week by week comparison for gross variations, not sure how useful it would be an a longer period here, especially it being relatively close.



Code:
Cumulative estimated TBO by week 

01/04/09        128.20
01/11/09        179.42
01/18/09        123.50
01/25/09        137.50
02/01/09        128.44
02/08/09        298.34
02/15/09        90.74
02/22/09        220.54
03/01/09        23.05
03/08/09        146.86
03/15/09        174.71
03/22/09        316.44
03/29/09        168.37
        2136.11
        
01/03/10        171.11
01/10/10        190.74
01/17/10        131.18
01/24/10        59.59
01/31/10        151.40
02/07/10        112.90
02/14/10        181.84
02/21/10        79.71
02/28/10        75.36
03/07/10        258.77
03/14/10        245.05
03/21/10        512.77
03/28/10        334.96
        2505.38
post #8229 of 11556
4/16/10 at 3:23pm
Part of the reason for the YTY comparisons taking a hit this week ending 4/11/10 is that the 2010 year is the week after Easter while the 2009 year is a Easter Holiday week. DVD revenues have historically been low in the week after Easter and in this case we have a 2010 week after Easter week with virtually now new DVD releases being compared year to year with a heavily promoted Easter DVD sales week in 2009.

A week to week comparison is heavily influenced the release schedule and that a holiday sales week is not apples to oranges with a non holiday sales week.

In most cases a year to year comparison takes into account most seasonal and relative release strength variables in a rough manner, but in this case a better year to year comparison would be the holiday week of 4/12/09 with last week of 4/04/10 where both had similar Easter holiday sales patterns.

The pattern of a drop off of DVD sales in the week after Easter week holiday is pretty clear to see.

In this case the week after Easter in 2010 is being compared to a Easter holiday sales week in 2009

Code:
Easter April 4, 2010

04/11/10        119.99  18.57   138.56  13.40%  15.48 20.75%(BD  -5.06% DVD -59.52% TL -56.15% YTY) * TBO was only <2M LOTR BD week
04/04/10        245.92  34.01   279.93  12.15%  13.83 13.56%(BD +97.33% DVD  -0.13% TL  +6.25% YTY) 
03/28/10        236.73  45.46   282.19  16.11%  19.20*20.77%(BD +89.15% DVD -10.58% TL  -2.28% YTY) *Toy Story Toy Story 2 Blu-ray+DVD combo counted as Blu-ray sales

Easter April 12, 2009

04/19/09        135.79 10.79   146.58   7.36%   7.94   12% (BD +15.31% -31.37% DVD TL -28.57% YTY)
04/12/09  296.43 19.56   315.99       6.19%   6.60    7% (BD+172.86% +27.63% DVD TL +33.44% YTY)
04/05/09        246.24  17.24   263.47   6.54%   7.00   10% (BD+130.70% +01.73% DVD TL +06.89% YTY)  (2Q 2009)   

Easter March 23, 2008

03/30/08        144.13  6.99   151.12   4.63%   4.85    8% 90.31       
03/23/08        247.59 13.66   261.25   5.23%   5.52    6% 83.32       
03/16/08        238.92   8.51   247.42   3.44%   3.56    4% 69.66
post #8230 of 11556
4/16/10 at 4:03pm
Besides the TBO issue, or what causes the TBO issue is that DVD releases and revenues have traditionally been really low the week after Easter. So last week ending 4/11/10 we have last years holiday Easter sales being compared to this years week after Easter slow release week. Double whammy.
post #8231 of 11556
4/16/10 at 6:00pm
The week of 4/18 will also not be very good but 4/25 will be spectacular.

When I was in the movie business, my boss used to say "It's either feast or famine." Nothing has changed.
post #8232 of 11556
4/16/10 at 6:42pm
Its the Easter Bunny party versus the party bunny after Easter hangover factor

Its all the Easter Bunny's fault
post #8233 of 11556
4/16/10 at 7:04pm
Looking at the last three years weeks following the Easter holiday as the base floor gives an approximate floor for 2008 as $150 M , 2009 as $145 M and 2010 as $140 M with Blu-ray substituting more and more for DVD over time.


Code:
Week right  after Easter April 4, 2010 April 12, 2009 March 23, 2008

04/11/10        119.99  18.57   138.56  13.40%  15.48 20.75%(BD  -5.06% DVD -59.52% TL -56.15% YTY) * TBO was only <2M LOTR BD week
04/19/09        135.79  10.79   146.58  7.36%   7.94   12% (BD +15.31% -31.37% DVD TL -28.57% YTY)
03/30/08        144.13   6.99   151.12  4.63%   4.85    8% 90.31
post #8234 of 11556
4/16/10 at 7:24pm
Quote:


What's TBO?

TBO is the term for Total Box Office that others and Home Media Magazine research uses to sum up the total box office performance of all the new first time on home video titles that are released each week on home video, in this case now DVD + Blu-ray.

Since those new "day and date" new releases constitute the most important variable in home video sales, besides the holiday seasonality, the relative box office historical performance of the new titles coming out each week during there theatrical release is a strong clue on what the sales are for each week. In particular, there are a good comparison on a year to year basis to how the week should perform in gross terms on home video sales.

The weekly TBO is the combination total of all of the total box office receipts for the new releases to home video for that week.

In most cases a year to year comparison hits the same seasonal factors (not last week as an exception, as the Easter holiday and the hangover week after Easter occurred on different sequence weeks) and the TBO is the big variable on how the week will perform on a year to year YTY comparison basis.

In last week ending 4/11/10, the TBO was off the charts low at under $2M total, and was 99% below the comparison week from 2009 in the weekly sequence. That the lowest that metric has ever ever been in our tracking of the HMM stats.

But 2 weeks from now when Avatar is released the TBO comparison is off the charts in the other direction.
post #8235 of 11556
4/16/10 at 11:19pm
Wow. You miss a day or two here and more stuff flys by than in a month in some of the forums on AVS.

I have to agree with Kosty on the LotR numbers. The studio can't help but be happy. Basically all they did was dusted off their transfer and bam they stuck 3 movies into 5th place overall. Thats really just found money. If there was no Blu-ray they wouldn't be making that money. Not to shabby when every on knows and not just suspects that there is a better set coming down the road. This will definitely have a long tail.
post #8236 of 11556
4/17/10 at 1:06am
Quote:
This will definitely have a long tail.

Agreed.

It will be interesting to see how LOTR actually fairs in the next couple weeks as well.

Even though next weeks TBO for the week ending 4/18/10 is modest in preparation for Avatar in the next week, the 2009 week is the week following Easter and thus has some pretty low comparison numbers.
post #8237 of 11556
4/17/10 at 6:07am
Quote:
Originally Posted by jvillain View Post

Wow. You miss a day or two here and more stuff flys by than in a month in some of the forums on AVS.

I have to agree with Kosty on the LotR numbers. The studio can't help but be happy. Basically all they did was dusted off their transfer and bam they stuck 3 movies into 5th place overall. Thats really just found money. If there was no Blu-ray they wouldn't be making that money. Not to shabby when every on knows and not just suspects that there is a better set coming down the road. This will definitely have a long tail.

How many titles with the interest that LOTR generates are there in a studio's catalog? Star Wars is the only title that comes to mind. Maybe the Harry Potter series, due to the number of movies. That's it. So it's not about making money on LOTR. It's about making a LOT of money on LOTR, because it provides one of the few opportunities to make a lot of money from a catalog title. 150,000 sold? With 15 million+ owners of Blu-ray players out there? That comes out to 1 out of every 100 Blu-ray owners bought LOTR on Blu-ray the first week. And I doubt that many more are holding off buying this release, unless they are holding out for major price cuts. And future major price cuts might be a mistake if Warner plans on a pricey release of the extended editions in the future.
post #8238 of 11556
4/17/10 at 6:25am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

If Blu-ray player set top hardware (non PS3) sales were up 125%, and 1Q 2009 Blu-ray player sales were over 400,000 units thats 1,000,000 Blu-ray player sales in 1Q 2009 right?

1 million is not a bad number for the quarter. Not great considering the drop in player prices, but better than I expected. I still wonder why we aren't just given the number, instead of having to extrapolate it from percentages. Are they afraid of unfavorable DVD comparisons?
post #8239 of 11556
4/17/10 at 11:09am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Home Media Magazine did not start including the total box office numbers until the second week of February last year so I had to back calculate the numbers for the first 5 weeks of 1Q 2009 for the total box office (TBO) of the new releases for those weeks. So YMMV here.

I get $2136.11 M ($2.136 billion) for the cumulative TBO for 1Q 2009 and $2505.38 M ($2.505 billion) for the cumulative TBO for 1Q 2010. That would be a 17.29% increase.

Thanks for looking into this. I truly appreciate you doing the research and answering questions from those of us interested in how the overall Home Video market is going.

It seems like despite TBO being up some 17%, the Home Video market has not grown at that same rate and has actually seen a Year to Year decline in the first quarter.

Of course... that needs to take into account the impact of rising average ticket prices (partially driven by IMAX and 3-D), which looks to be of growing significance.
post #8240 of 11556
4/17/10 at 12:30pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarod M View Post

1 million is not a bad number for the quarter. Not great considering the drop in player prices, but better than I expected. I still wonder why we aren't just given the number, instead of having to extrapolate it from percentages. Are they afraid of unfavorable DVD comparisons?

Par for the course. Its a PR tool and focusing on the substantial growth percentage frames the issue better from a marketing or PR perspective.

Also its fairly common for initial or public reports to use percentages because the specific numbers are provided to people who pay for the data. Its really pretty common industry practice.

Even when you can easily calculate the numbers, like when can when you piece things together, not stating the number directly offers a level of deniability to the report in case they want to tweak the numbers later when more information is available.

Quote:


Are they afraid of unfavorable DVD comparisons?

Thats probably a concern in some degree. They probably do not want a reader or press article to focus on the fact that the volume is less than that of DVD player unit sales. To be fair, there is some legitimacy in that as a lot of the DVD units a cheap secondary or replacement units and Blu-ray is obviously going to be slower in sales not only because of the price points but that it is not as big of a new thing as DVD was over VHS.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articl...advdsales.html
post #8241 of 11556
4/17/10 at 12:37pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post

Thanks for looking into this. I truly appreciate you doing the research and answering questions from those of us interested in how the overall Home Video market is going.

It seems like despite TBO being up some 17%, the Home Video market has not grown at that same rate and has actually seen a Year to Year decline in the first quarter.

Of course... that needs to take into account the impact of rising average ticket prices (partially driven by IMAX and 3-D), which looks to be of growing significance.


Well like I said, the TBO is a really rough measure thats probably only real useful on a week by week basis when there is a large variance between last year and this years numbers, as so many titles overachieve or underachieve on home video. But when the TBO is up 50% or more in a week thats a clue that its going to be a good week year to year comparison wise.

17% over the quarter would probably mean not a whole lot. But if we looked at other quarters and how they looked year to year in that quarterly TBO comparison we might get a clue. IMHO the first quarter low volumes anyway mean that individual titles on a weekly basis have more impact.

But its interesting nonetheless.


Part of that home video decline as stated above is the one time plus up to the DVD sales statistics from the 1Q 2009 liquidation of the DVD inventory of Circuit City. If you take that out, its probably much closer to flat revenues as the HMM revenue stats imply.
post #8242 of 11556
4/17/10 at 2:35pm
On the subject of The Lord of the Rings: The Motion Picture Trilogy Blu-ray box set sales.

I had a chance to converse today with some people on the studio side of things , not from this specific releasing studio, that are quite sure the studio here would be pretty pleased with a 10 year title hitting 10 million in revenue in 5-7 days and moving 100-200,000 units.

As I said, its likely to have long legs and double in revenue and units in 20 days and triple in 8 weeks, and thats just found money for the studio.

I know this is a long awaited title for a lot of us and expectations are all over the place, but from a studio business sense, its just business and from that perspective it clearly making money is a good thing for all of us concerned about future studio library titles coming out on Blu-ray.
post #8243 of 11556
4/17/10 at 3:17pm
Quote:
Well I'm relieved. As long as LOTR can make money, we should rest our fears about BD being overly stingy with library releases going forward. Phew.



I think the significance is actually in the other direction. That it did so well in the first week means any concerns about releasing it at this time were set aside and because it did well enough on release, in April no less the week after Easter, its going to make it easier for more titles to get released on Blu-ray sooner than later. If it had faltered, which my all accounts it did not, it could have set back catalog Blu-ray releases just like the relative sales failure of many of the early HD DVD titles back in 2006 and 2007 slowed things down for that format.

Its also not a small thing for a prominent title that had some non trivial cost associated with its release to make it investment back in 5 days with a long expected sales tail. That can only make it easier for other prominent titles to get some monies invested in their re release on Blu-ray going forward. All of that is good news for those of us interested in the studios releasing older titles on Blu-ray. What's not to like?

I've had a lot of connected people tell me this week that the LOTR on Blu-ray sales, especially hitting the Nielsen Videoscan and Rentrak sales charts was seen as a very positive for Blu-ray catalog studio library sales.

Hopefully that will encourage other Blu-ray catalog releases sooner than later.
post #8244 of 11556
4/17/10 at 3:48pm
Quote:
C2E2 10: Star Wars BDs in the Works

Sansweet reveals details on the highly-anticipated Blu-rays.
by Chris Carle

April 17, 2010 - Today in the IGN Theater at the Chicago Comics and Entertainment Expo (C2E2), Lucasfilm Director of Fan Relations Steve Sansweet revealed anticipated information about the Star Wars films coming to Blu-ray.

"We have been at work for a couple of years working on—I won't call it the Ultimate Set because we keep finding stuff—but, a very full set of all six movies on Blu-ray with lots of extra material. We're finding all kinds of scenes from dailies that have never been seen before. Beyond all of those things that you know about… there are some real treasures."

When will the set come out? Sansweet says, "We're not ready to announce exactly when it's coming out, but it won't be in the too distant future."

Stay tuned to IGN Blu-ray for more news on the six films making their way to the format.

http://bluray.ign.com/articles/108/1084415p1.html
post #8245 of 11556
4/18/10 at 6:35am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

On the subject of The Lord of the Rings: The Motion Picture Trilogy Blu-ray box set sales.

I had a chance to converse today with some people on the studio side of things , not from this specific releasing studio, that are quite sure the studio here would be pretty pleased with a 10 year title hitting 10 million in revenue in 5-7 days and moving 100-200,000 units.

As I said, its likely to have long legs and double in revenue and units in 20 days and triple in 8 weeks, and thats just found money for the studio.

I know this is a long awaited title for a lot of us and expectations are all over the place, but from a studio business sense, its just business and from that perspective it clearly making money is a good thing for all of us concerned about future studio library titles coming out on Blu-ray.

Was Fox happy when the Star Wars Trilogy debuted on DVD with FIRST DAY sales of 2.5 million units?
post #8246 of 11556
4/18/10 at 7:25am
Apples and Oranges. That was effectively a day and date new release on DVD because it had never been out on DVD before.

When Star Wars debuts on Blu-ray it will probably sell more than LOTR did with its $99 box set too as the household penetration will be larger. But the strategy of delaying Star Wars on DVD did pay off as many consumers wanted to upgrade from the VHS versions to DVD and there also was a tie in with episodes 1-3.

LOTR: FOTR on DVD sold about 2.5 M units also IIRC during its release week and over 1.5 M on DVD in the UK.

Looking for historical information on DVD sales for LOTR but its sparse as its back in 2002 many of the databases were active and there was a royalty issue on DVD sales with Peter Jackson so studio sales claims were sparce.


This site has LOTR FOTR DVD sales at: $257,300,000 (12.0 million units)
All-time Rank: #1 (gross); #2 (units)

http://grove.ufl.edu/~cwarner/ent/lotr.html

If LOTR on Blu-ray did 100-200,000 units first 5 days (first release week) order of magnitude would be to triple that sales revenues and unit volumes over 8 weeks and 50% more over the next 6 months. A re release on Blu-ray (or DVD for that matter) is never going to have as many initial unit sales as the first release, not only because of its day and date tie in with the theatrical release and its advertising promotion and first time availability, but a re-release obviously factors in that many consumers have the previous digital edition and do not immediately need to upgrade.
post #8247 of 11556
4/18/10 at 8:17am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Apples and Oranges. That was effectively a day and date new release on DVD because it had never been out on DVD before.

When Star Wars debuts on Blu-ray it will probably sell more than LOTR did with its $99 box set too as the household penetration will be larger. But the strategy of delaying Star Wars on DVD did pay off as many consumers wanted to upgrade from the VHS versions to DVD and there also was a tie in with episodes 1-3.

LOTR: FOTR on DVD sold about 2.5 M units also IIRC during its release week and over 1.5 M on DVD in the UK.

Looking for historical information on DVD sales for LOTR but its sparse as its back in 2002 many of the databases were active and there was a royalty issue on DVD sales with Peter Jackson so studio sales claims were space

And LOTR is effectively a day and date new release on Blu-ray because it has never been out on Blu-ray before. I don't understand how this is an apples and oranges difference-unless you want to make the argument that people are satisfied with their DVD versions of LOTR, while people were much less satisfied with their VHS versions of Star Wars, thus the willing to upgrade to the DVD versions.

It's an argument that the studios and the biggest Blu-ray backers do not want to hear, but they might have to face the reality that profits from catalog sales on Blu-ray are going to be closer to what they were for laserdisc than what they were for DVD.
post #8248 of 11556
4/18/10 at 8:21am
Trying to compare a first time of DVD release to a re-release on Blu-ray is kinda absurd expectations. Obviously that ain't gonna happen.

No one expects that any studio catalog title , even huge ones, is going to get the volumes and sales revenues on its Blu-ray re-release that one got on the first time it got released on DVD.
post #8249 of 11556
4/18/10 at 8:26am
I don't think anyone in the industry is expecting that the Blu-ray version re-release of any of the studio library titles is going to anywhere approach what revenues and volumes the titles did on their DVD releases. Whats more realistic is that on release, the new Blu-ray version will cover its costs, provide additional revenues on top of the titles routine legacy DVD sales and in total the sum of additional Blu-ray catalog releases with extend the sales periods of the studio libraries at a higher margin than the DVD versions currently do.

Over time the Blu-ray versions will displace the DVD inventory at the retail level and sustain that portion of routine catalog sales for a long period of time.
post #8250 of 11556
4/18/10 at 8:31am
Quote:


It's an argument that the studios and the biggest Blu-ray backers do not want to hear, but they might have to face the reality that profits from catalog sales on Blu-ray are going to be closer to what they were for laserdisc than what they were for DVD.

No doubt there has been some disappointment for Blu-ray catalog sales in the past, but thats rapidly changing as the household penetration of Blu-ray increases. But catalog sales on Blu-ray will also steadily increase in the aggregate as more Blu-ray titles at cheaper prices are on brick and mortar retail shelves and more Blu-ray owners get more choices on their routine shopping trips.

If a Blu-ray release , and many are , gets 30-50% or more of a older titles BD marketshare, thats incremental found money for studios and retailers as that might be very well doubling the routine DVD sales for that title in active retail.
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