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post #8281 of 11556
4/19/10 at 6:26pm
Quote:


The lack of any sales for new releases, because there really was no major new release, as shown in the graphic above for the Top 20 unit sales

Interesting that Box Office power would be up 1768.19% based on that.

Gear mentioned in this thread:

post #8282 of 11556
4/19/10 at 7:54pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jvillain View Post

Interesting that Box Office power would be up 1768.19% based on that.

You are referring to the week ending Sunday 4/25, which is this coming "Avatar" week. Please check the dates.
post #8283 of 11556
4/19/10 at 8:04pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

The lack of any sales for new releases, because there really was no major new release, as shown in the graphic above for the Top 20 unit sales

I was referring to the week ending 4/11/10 where the TBO was 9.41 M for the week which was down by their revised total of $96.40%

Code:
Street  Title   Box Office

4/6/10  Bad Lieutenant  $1.70
4/6/10  The Collector   $7.71

        Total Box Office Power: $9.41

Last weeks charts also had that the week ending 4/18/10 also had a very low $8.10 M total box office take which is also way down -84.97% from the comparable week in 2009.

Code:
Street  Title             Box Office

4/13/10 Pirate Radio            $8.02
4/13/10 Defendor                $0.04
4/13/10 The Slammin' Salmon     $0.04
        
        Total Box Office Power: $8.10
Quote:
Originally Posted by jvillain View Post

Interesting that Box Office power would be up 1768.19% based on that.

Thats next week ending on 4/25/10. Where Avatar makes things go off the charts.


Code:
Street  Title        Box Office

4/22/10 Avatar                 $743.85
4/20/10 Crazy Heart             $38.83
4/20/10 The Young Victoria      $10.91
4/20/10 The Lovely Bones        $44.03
        
        Total Box Office Power: $837.62




post #8284 of 11556
4/19/10 at 8:25pm
Quote:
Projections: ‘Holmes’ Should Be Top Title Again (week ending 4/18/10)

By : Kelly Burner | Posted: 19 Apr 2010

For the second consecutive week there were no major theatrical releases debuting on DVD and Blu-ray Disc. Last week (ended April 11) the title with the highest box office gross was the Vivendi horror flick The Collector, with only $7 million in theatrical revenue. This week was a similar story, with Universal’s comedy Pirate Radio the highest box office performer, grossing $8 million in theatrical revenue.

With no strong competition, it is likely that a holdover title will again grab No. 1 on the top sales and rental charts for the week. The most likely candidate is Warner’s Sherlock Holmes, which took the top spot on both the sales and rental charts for the week ended April 11.

The week ending April 18 did see the Blu-ray debut of Ron Howard’s 1995 film Apollo 13, which will likely debut high on the national top Blu-ray sellers chart.

Code:
Projected Top 3 Sellers for Week Ending 4/18/2010

1  Sherlock Holmes Warner 3
2  The Blind Side Warner 4
3  Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel Fox  3

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...le-again-19085

Quote:
April 13, 2010 BD

Apollo 13 (Universal)
Crazy on the Outside (20th Century Fox)
Gone with the Wind: Scarlett Edition (Warner Brothers)
A Nightmare on Elm Street (1984) (New Line Cinema)
Pirate Radio (Universal)
The Slammin' Salmon (Starz/Anchor Bay)

http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/rele...istorical.html


Code:
Street  Title             Box Office

4/13/10 Pirate Radio            $8.02
4/13/10 Defendor                $0.04
4/13/10 The Slammin' Salmon     $0.04
        
        Total Box Office Power: $8.10

Code:
New Releases: April 13, 2010

Theatrical and Direct-to-Video
Pirate Radio (Universal, DVD and Blu-ray)
Tenderness (Lionsgate, DVD)
Defendor (Sony Pictures, DVD)
The Slammin’ Salmon (Anchor Bay, DVD and Blu-ray)
Haunted (Phase 4, DVD)
The Madeline Movie: Lost in Paris (Shout! Factory, DVD)
Creature of Darkness (MTI, DVD)
Storm Seekers (Image, DVD)
Tenure (DVD)
The Indomitable Teddy Roosevelt (Reality, DVD)
Danny the Dragon Meets Jimmy (Victory Multimedia, DVD)
Plunder: The Crime of Our Time (Disinformation, DVD)
Crimes of the Past (Osiris, DVD)

Re-Releases
Apollo 13: 15th Anniversary Edition (Universal, Blu-ray)
The Great Mouse Detective: Mystery in the Mist Edition (Disney, DVD)
A Nightmare on Elm Street (Warner, Blu-ray)
Gone With the Wind: Scarlett Edition (Warner, Blu-ray)
The Best Man (MGM, CreateSpace DVD)
Essential Arthouse: Kapo (Criterion, DVD)
Essential Arthouse: 8 1/2 (Criterion, DVD)

TV DVD
Dallas: Season 13 (Warner, DVD)
Emergency! Season 6 (Universal, DVD)
Alias Smith And Jones: Seasons 2&3 (Timeless, DVD)
Dora the Explorer: Explore the Earth (Paramount/Nickelodeon, DVD)
Tom and Jerry Tales: Season 1 (Warner, DVD)
The Official Inauguration Celebration (HBO, DVD)
Riddles of the Sphinx (PBS, DVD)
Gospel Calling: Mahalia Jackson Sings (Infinity, DVD)
post #8285 of 11556
4/19/10 at 8:37pm
What are these fancy new auto generating links?* ....
post #8286 of 11556
4/19/10 at 9:11pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

As stated above its also a calender quirk that last years Easter holiday sales week in 2009 is being compared to this years week after Easter slow release week in 2010.

Next week will be a statistical anomaly in the other direction due to Avatar (and the 1769% difference in box office power).
post #8287 of 11556
4/19/10 at 9:49pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post

Next week will be a statistical anomaly in the other direction due to Avatar (and the 1769% difference in box office power).

Obviously.

Yes indeed.

Quote:
Sounds like a freak of nature.

l can't wait to meet him.

-The Fifth Element

http://www.movietranscriptions.com/5...ment.html#p230

It will be the mother of all non seasonal anomalies with the biggest box office of all time having an April home video debut.

It will be an unprecedented outlier week and I certainly won't be saying that DVD and Blu-ray are going to beat all sales records every year this decade based on any results from that week. But a good Blu-ray marketshare and revenue there will have some significant consequences down the road.

Its probably going to be closely looked at by retailers to get a good judge on the potential that Blu-ray and DVD sales have in the market for later in this year and the results from that week will also effect retailer inventory decisions for later in the year for both Blu-ray hardware and software.

Its also possible that single title could also accelerate Blu-ray player sales and might get more existing PS3 owners converted to active Blu-ray Disc purchasers.

It will be interesting to see what happens.
post #8288 of 11556
4/19/10 at 9:56pm
Last year for the matching week for Avatar were these 2 titles:

Code:
4/21/09 The Wrestler    $26.21
4/21/09 Frost-Nixon     $18.62
        
        Total Box Office Power: $44.84
Code:
04/26/09

165.58 DVD
 19.42 BD 
184.99 TL       

10.50% BD rev share     
14% BD top 20 %
Last year the DVD top 20 units were 3.9 M and Blu-ray units were reported as 539,519 from HMM.

Avatar will blow those numbers away.
post #8289 of 11556
4/19/10 at 11:48pm
I wonder if the Thursday release of Avatar will temper the numbers somewhat, and more evenly distribute them over two weeks.

Of course, I expect Avatar to have a very long tail, on the order of TDK, which still shows up on the weekly top 20 list.
post #8290 of 11556
4/20/10 at 12:38am
Quote:
Originally Posted by BuckNaked View Post

I wonder if the Thursday release of Avatar will temper the numbers somewhat, and more evenly distribute them over two weeks.

Of course, I expect Avatar to have a very long tail, on the order of TDK, which still shows up on the weekly top 20 list.

Great point, its a Thursday instead of a normal Tuesday release.

I think it might spread a lot more into the second week, so that week will also be strong after only the 4 day Thur Fri Sat Sun counting in the week ending 11/25/10 statistics. But that weeks numbers will be so huge we probably will not notice and all of the pre orders from Amazon and other online retailers all count of the day of release.

The real questions is how high Avatars Blu-ray marketshare will be and how much revenue both DVD and Blu-ray get for those two weeks.
post #8291 of 11556
4/20/10 at 1:22am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

The real questions is how high Avatars Blu-ray marketshare will be and how much revenue both DVD and Blu-ray get for those two weeks.

I think it will get 35% minimum. It should be a hardware driver, meaning that even folks without BD players will by the Blu-ray version (with DVD) in anticipation of their next disc player being BD.
post #8292 of 11556
4/20/10 at 10:48am
Screen Digest Report: Digital Movie Revenue Declining only $200 M 2009 20% below est

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/vod...eclining-19128

comment deleted per mod request
post #8293 of 11556
4/20/10 at 10:59am
Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post

I think it will get 35% minimum. It should be a hardware driver, meaning that even folks without BD players will by the Blu-ray version (with DVD) in anticipation of their next disc player being BD.

Thats my guess too. But I would not be shocked if a huge huge number of DVD sales depressed somewhat those Blu-ray revenue and unit marketshare percentage metrics even if a very large amount of Blu-ray discs were sold. Blu-ray and DVD revenues should both obviously be records for 2010, its a question on how will compare to a 4Q holiday week thats going to be interesting.
post #8294 of 11556
4/20/10 at 11:10am
I never saw it so be gentle with me. But wasn't Avatar's only real claim to fame that it was 3D? I never once read a review that said it's story was any good. In leau of that won't the 2D release be considerable lower than you would expect from it's box office numbers? Not saying it won't be number one but will it really beat TDK in this form?
post #8295 of 11556
4/20/10 at 11:15am
Quote:


Online transactional movie rentals and video-on-demand (VOD) purchases have apparently slowed, prompting research firm Screen Digest to revised downward future revenue growth for the perceived successor to DVD.

The real burning question for me is why is it slowing? Is it because there is less free/super cheap programming? Has the low lying fruit of people with uberfast connections been consumed. Have people decided they aren't happy with the PQ/AQ? Some other reason?
post #8296 of 11556
4/20/10 at 11:23am
Quote:
Originally Posted by jvillain View Post

I never saw it so be gentle with me. But wasn't Avatar's only real claim to fame that it was 3D? I never once read a review that said it's story was any good. In leau of that won't the 2D release be considerable lower than you would expect from it's box office numbers? Not saying it won't be number one but will it really beat TDK in this form?

Its another entire alien jungle world created for the story. You just have to see it to understand.

Even if the story is not Shakespeare, or your agree with the sometimes ham handed politics or tree hugger crunchy granola ecological worship preaching, there is a reason it is the bestselling grossing movie of all time.

If you like science fiction or action adventure or chick flick romance its all there. Plus big blue aboriginal aliens with tails that can destroy 22nd century missile armed aircraft while flying on multicolored dragons after waiting in ambush on the sides of flying mountains.

Really.
post #8297 of 11556
4/20/10 at 11:30am
Quote:


Online transactional movie rentals and video-on-demand (VOD) purchases have apparently slowed, prompting research firm Screen Digest to revised downward future revenue growth for the perceived successor to DVD.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jvillain View Post

The real burning question for me is why is it slowing? Is it because there is less free/super cheap programming? Has the low lying fruit of people with uberfast connections been consumed. Have people decided they aren't happy with the PQ/AQ? Some other reason?

PITA factor getting stuff from online to TV? Short form content is easier for mobile and worth watching on a smaller display? Blu-ray and DVD and other cable sat SD and HD options still easier and better for most to watch on larger HDTV sizes? Techy types attracted to it migrating to Blu-ray because the PS3 has a Blu-ray drive in it and more PS3 owners finally hooked it up to a HDTV and $299 PS3s helped in the 4Q 2009?


???????
post #8298 of 11556
4/20/10 at 11:32am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

I do it because I like it, have something useful to share and I hope its appreciated.

I can not think of a better motive than that. I have created several technical charts, tables PDF, pictures, and they have been viewed and/or downloaded several hundred times. My reward is simply knowing that I have assisted a fellow AVSer in the betterment of their hobby/profession.

OT: I remember you quite well from the war days. Fortunately, we only crossed paths a couple of times. From 06
Quote:


Kosty: Maybe if you ask it in a nice way and frame it as a search for understanding instead of acting like you're proving a case in a courtroom prosecution?

Wendell: I readily admit that I am PP typist and therefore real short on words. I do apologize for that. But I do try to lend a hand where I can. Just click the RED or GREEN in my signature line.

And I will say again, I sure am glad Kosty took up the Blu flag after the war.
post #8299 of 11556
4/20/10 at 11:32am
From Nikki Finke's Deadline Hollywood

Deadline Hollywood
post #8300 of 11556
4/20/10 at 11:48am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland View Post

I can not think of a better motive than that. ..

And I will say again, I sure am glad Kosty took up the Blu flag after the war.

The great thing to me is it was a seamless transition as I always liked Blu-ray, it was just the case, that until the final months of the HD DVD Blu-ray format war I wanted HD DVD around as I was skeptical of a lot of things about Blu-ray like disc cost and yields, replication capacity, multiple standards, hardware player costs and the economics of older studio releases on Blu-ray.

I was glad Blu-ray solved those issues, eliminated any rationale for HD DVD to remain and has had substantial growth since then.

As I said , it was really never that I was against Blu-ray, I enjoyed Blu-ray on a PS3 from the get go, as well as HD DVD, a lot was that I thought the significance of Blu-ray consistently having a 60:40 sales split was overstated especially when both had a pathetically small less than 1% combined share compared to DVD which was 100 times bigger in scale during most of the format war.

But its easy to be consistent if you were a high definition movie and home theater fan and move support from HD DVD to its more advanced better capacity successor, not only after all of the better specification better room for growth format's teething problems are solved by Sony's huge investments, but when its the only high definition optical disc alternative.

Its only logical to anyone to support Blu-ray if you supported HD DVD as it does everything HD DVD did, only better at this stage. The day of the Walmart decision I urged former HD DVD supporters to do just that.
post #8301 of 11556
4/20/10 at 11:59am
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/...835161e772c7ed
post #8302 of 11556
4/20/10 at 1:40pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

...It does not seem that watching movies via digital streaming or digital downloads has any growth at all. Thats surprising to me...

It does to me as well. Perhaps all the digital streaming/downloads are going to services that the industry does not have good visibility into, especially with all-you-can-eat services. For example I thought I saw a response on this forum that said there is very little visibility into the # of movies watched throught the Netflix Watch Now service, only some cryptic and mostly useless data about the number of subscribers that had used the service.
post #8303 of 11556
4/20/10 at 5:40pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by user4avsforum View Post

It does to me as well. Perhaps all the digital streaming/downloads are going to services that the industry does not have good visibility into, especially with all-you-can-eat services. For example I thought I saw a response on this forum that said there is very little visibility into the # of movies watched throught the Netflix Watch Now service, only some cryptic and mostly useless data about the number of subscribers that had used the service.

I thought it was a real zoot when Netflix made the statement that 6 million people had viewed 15 minutes of streaming in a 30 day period. By comparison, look at the numbers from last Monday and just the four major networks. Two and a Half Men did almost four times better in 30 minutes than Netflix did in 30 days.

Numbers are in millions
1. Dancing With the Stars (ABC) 18.4
2. The Big Bang Theory (CBS) 11.6
3. House (FOX) 10.5
4. Two and a Half Men (CBS) 11.3
5. CSI: Miami (CBS) 11.6
6. How I Met Your Mother (CBS) 7.6
7. Romantically Challenged (ABC) 11.5
8. Rules of Engagement (CBS) 7.4
9. 24 (FOX) 9
10. Castle (ABC) 11.6
Total 110.5
post #8304 of 11556
4/20/10 at 10:13pm
comment deleted per request
post #8305 of 11556
4/20/10 at 10:16pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland View Post

I thought it was a real zoot when Netflix made the statement that 6 million people had viewed 15 minutes of streaming in a 30 day period. By comparison, look at the numbers from last Monday and just the four major networks. Two and a Half Men did almost four times better in 30 minutes than Netflix did in 30 days.

Numbers are in millions
1. Dancing With the Stars (ABC) 18.4
2. The Big Bang Theory (CBS) 11.6
3. House (FOX) 10.5
4. Two and a Half Men (CBS) 11.3
5. CSI: Miami (CBS) 11.6
6. How I Met Your Mother (CBS) 7.6
7. Romantically Challenged (ABC) 11.5
8. Rules of Engagement (CBS) 7.4
9. 24 (FOX) 9
10. Castle (ABC) 11.6
Total 110.5

Its a start. But short form content like episodic TV, that you really don't mind not collecting as you are working your way through the episodes may be much better suited to early success on digital streaming and download stuff than long form content like digital movies.
post #8306 of 11556
4/20/10 at 10:30pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by dangerdoc from HDF View Post

Download to own would be more desirable if it actually meant download to own.

Download for license to play on one player, not transferable to any other player you own, don't even think about changing the resolution, don't screw with us or we'll delete if from your hard drive, is a much tougher sell.

Yeah.

Thats a non trivial factor when it comes to consumers collecting DVD and Blu-ray Discs. Once you buy it you own it and can trust you can play it for decades to come.
post #8307 of 11556
4/21/10 at 2:19am
Since this is a BD sales thread, let's keep the streaming talk out of it, please. Thanks.
post #8308 of 11556
4/21/10 at 2:40am
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDon View Post

Since this is a BD sales thread, let's keep the streaming talk out of it, please. Thanks.

No problem.

Just thought it was it was modestly on topic as a lot of the longer perspective discussion on Blu-ray sales trends often has movie downloads as an alternative source and the lack of major growth in that area might have some impact on future Blu-ray sales trends.

But I see your point so I agree that its a good idea not to get into the direct comparisons there.

Good catch, as you wish kind sir.
post #8309 of 11556
4/21/10 at 3:26am
I'm working on the week ending 4/11/10 top 20 units charts and graphs now.

The last week ending 4/11/10 look interesting like watching a train crash or slow drive by a car accident sort of macabre kinda of way.

The impact of no major new releases and the poor new release total box office numbers affected the Top 20 units even worse than the revenue comparisons.

Yuck.
post #8310 of 11556
4/21/10 at 3:27am
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