Not really been brought up by any of the folks here, but I posted this at HDD in response to some comments that the 49% Blu-ray unit marketshare for Avatar for its release week ending 4/25/10 really should not count or is inflated in some manner because the Blu-ray units for Avatar this week sold were all all Blu-ray+DVD combo packs instead of just a plain Blu-ray version and somehow that should not count in some manner.
Like I said above, I think its just some cognitive dissonance on your behalf, trying to organize the known data with your preconceptions and assumption biases here.
First off, the 49% is apples to apples with the performance of similar genre titles, like 42% for Terminator Salvation and 41% for 2012 and 38% for Star Trek, its not like we are talking a romantic comedy here. Those all performed at those levels with out a DVD in the package and pretty much those numbers have trended higher over time.
Avatar is also a perfect match for the PS3 crowd and there are millions of PS3 owners there that have not been very active in Blu-ray movie buying, so any noticeable improvement in the sales penetration to PS3 owners adds a few percentage points.
We also have the fact that this was a very high profile title, with extreme box office performance, that would tend to concentrate the buying activity of Blu-ray owners who picked this title together for the week instead of spreading out their picks among other titles. Blu-ray owners as first adopters would tend to be higher performing library collectors and would tend to buy more than the general population.
Did the inclusion of the DVD in the package improve the value and increase the sales of the Blu-ray+DVD sku, over a theoretical Blu-ray only version? Sure , but we are not in that alternative universe.
Its obvious that the Blu-ray+DVD package was a success here and provided a good value for consumers at that price point. But thats the point. It made more profit for the studios and retailers and consumers were willing to buy it at that price.
By design, it also addresses consumer concerns about not being able to play the Blu-ray Disc in vehicle, portable devices and in secondary DVD players around the house. So it addresses a consumer issue.
It also on the margins , does meet a value proposition for consumers that also do not have already a Blu-ray player, but are considering one in the future and use these combo packs to acquire a library of Blu-ray Discs in the interim. Thats by design, It makes it more likely them to continue to buy optical discs in the future and continue the profitable packaged media revenue stream for a high definition generation.
I'm not sure what the certified Blu-ray skeptic angst is about the Blu-ray +DVD combo version of Avatar counting as a Blu-ray sale or as the Blu-ray unit marketshare metric is here though. Granted there is some marginal bump for including a DVD in the set, but consumers still consciously paid more for the Blu-ray version here as they had a ready cheaper alternative in the lower priced DVD on sale right next to it. Yet 2.7 million and more consumers consciously choose to spend more to get the Blu-ray Disc version.
It certainly would in any circumstances be valid as an indicator of consumer preference and thats a valid measure for the Blu-ray unit marketshare metric to capture.
Its not like we are talking about the Snow White or Toy Story re release on Blu-ray weeks where the Blu-ray+DVD or DVD+Blu-ray options were all counted as Blu-ray units and no DVD only units were available. Thus the total format revenues for Blu-ray and the top 20 unit marketshare metrics were somewhat inflated because obviously some people that were going to use the DVD first were forced into buying the combo pack as there were not DVD only alternatives available to them at the time of purchase.
Here thats just not the case, as they were no reports of the DVD only version of Avatar selling out.
There is just a clear recognition that 49% percent of the Nielsen Videoscan first alert captured consumer transactions and 40% of the greater universe including Walmart consumer transactions for this title were made by consumers wanting and willing to pay more for the version including the Blu-ray Disc.
Even if you said that the Blu-ray only version would only have gotten the marketshare of Star Trek, Terminator: Salvation or 2012, thats still 38-42% and to be able to sustain that at twice or three or four times the volume is obviously significant. The fact that the apples to apples comparison metric here for Avatar is at 49% Blu-ray unit marketshare obviously shows growth in the Blu-ray format and will encourage retailers and the studios and consumers into further Blu-ray growth.
Thats progress no matter how you look at it.
Originally Posted by Kosty
There is a difference between the weeks of Snow White and Toy Story , where the leading releases were Blu-ray+DVD combos with no concurrent DVD version only and the weeks like Avatar and Up where a DVD only alternative was being offered and consumers consciously choose a more expensive premium alternative to the basic DVD.
In those cases, the Blu-ray revenue and top 20 unit marketshare metrics were inflated as all of the Blu-ray+DVD DVD+Blu-ray skus counted as 100% Blu-ray sales and consumers there did not have a DVD only option.
But with Avatar, consumers made the conscious choice to pay more for the Blu-ray+DVD set, so their intentions were clear they valued the Blu-ray portion enough to pay a premium over the pure DVD one.
Its going to happen more and more as studios will find it attractive to send those Blu-ray+DVD sets out if consumers show a willingness to buy them at a premium and total unit sales do not seem to be affected (like last week).
Blu-ray+DVD and a cheaper DVD only is a easy decision as the more expensive sku can double as a DVD sale if the projection is inaccurate and the shipped DVDs sell out and price sensitive have the cheaper DVD only alternative. Whats more of a gamble is shipping only the Blu-ray+DVD version and having some price sensitive consumers slow purchasing because they think they are paying for a Blu-ray they don't need.
That would be mitigated if the Blu-ray+DVD was priced for sale at that $19.99-$24.99 new DVD release price point, like it was last week for Avatar. Consumers see that for new release DVD pricing all the time.
Its an easier decision for a catalog title long released on DVD, for a new release with a lot of sales potential its still uncertain. But the huge sales of Avatar in a Blu-ray+DVD set may have lessened that uncertainty , at least for PS3 demo friendly titles like Avatar was.