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BLU-RAY SALES THREAD: Put all sales figures and comments here! - Page 324  

post #9691 of 11556
5/3/11 at 12:54am
Its pretty much as expected. 1Q 2010 had more box office power in new releases and more tent pole major releases including Twilight: New Moon and part of the Easter holiday sales week in the period and 1Q 2011 has less powerful releases and less major titles.

We will get a better judge at the end of the 2Q year to year comparisons.

Already the last four weeks have been substantially better for Blu-ray as the releases have improved.

Gear mentioned in this thread:

post #9692 of 11556
5/3/11 at 6:27am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Its pretty much as expected. 1Q 2010 had more box office power in new releases and more tent pole major releases including Twilight: New Moon and part of the Easter holiday sales week in the period and 1Q 2011 has less powerful releases and less major titles.

We will get a better judge at the end of the 2Q year to year comparisons.

Already the last four weeks have been substantially better for Blu-ray as the releases have improved.

That 10% figure was absolutely not expected going into the first quarter. All anyone talked about in anticipating the numbers for 2011 was the comparison to Avatars numbers. And, of course, Avatar was released in the SECOND QUARTER last year, and so its numbers have yet to figure into the comparisons. From here on out, what are the big releases that Blu-ray/DVD are relying on? It seems that the next big releases are going to be Star Wars, Fast Five and Thor, presumably late in the third quarter at the earliest. The biggest difference between this year and last year is that there are more comic book movies being released, some of which might be more in the Hulk category of success rather than at the Iron Man level. We shall see.
post #9693 of 11556
5/3/11 at 10:40am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarod M View Post

How bad was the first quarter 2011? The DEG numbers are not good. A 10% increase for Blu-ray, after all the players that were sold in the last year, is a sure sign that Blu-ray's growth is going to come to an end a lot quicker than some people would have guessed.
http://www.twice.com/article/467624-...Q1_Decline.php

Look at digital growth (sales) posted in that article though. With all the millions and millions of iPads, Android tablets, smartphones, computers, etc sold EST barely moved from 2010 to 2011.

You seem fixated on the platform (Blu-Ray) and are missing the forest through the trees. How much of the sluggish growth for both Blu-Ray and digitial (emerging technologies) are attributed to the really weak release of new movies from Hollywood (from the article):

Quote:


The group attributed the decline, in part, to a 25 percent reduction in box-office revenue for titles that became new release offerings for the home in the period.

I think that affected sales more than people realized and also benefited rental numbers (as the numbers show). I know I am reluctant to purchase a movie that was poorly reviewed and is really rental material at best and I can tell you my purchases of new release movies has curbed dramatically in Q1.

Couple that with the fact that there are just other forms of entertainment out there (much of it cheaper than buying movies) and it is clear that the home video market is changing.

I just don't think measuring a really weak release quarter for new releases is the best measurement of what the future holds. And I think this affects home video as whole, not just Blu-Ray, and is most likely going to benefit rental more than sales.

But what else can the studios do? It is pretty clear that digital is not really taking off either and cheap rentals seem to be all the rage.
post #9694 of 11556
5/3/11 at 11:59am
Quote:
Originally Posted by ack_bk View Post

Look at digital growth (sales) posted in that article though. With all the millions and millions of iPads, Android tablets, smartphones, computers, etc sold EST barely moved from 2010 to 2011.

You seem fixated on the platform (Blu-Ray) and are missing the forest through the trees. How much of the sluggish growth for both Blu-Ray and digitial (emerging technologies) are attributed to the really weak release of new movies from Hollywood (from the article):



I think that affected sales more than people realized and also benefited rental numbers (as the numbers show). I know I am reluctant to purchase a movie that was poorly reviewed and is really rental material at best and I can tell you my purchases of new release movies has curbed dramatically in Q1.

Couple that with the fact that there are just other forms of entertainment out there (much of it cheaper than buying movies) and it is clear that the home video market is changing.

I just don't think measuring a really weak release quarter for new releases is the best measurement of what the future holds. And I think this affects home video as whole, not just Blu-Ray, and is most likely going to benefit rental more than sales.

But what else can the studios do? It is pretty clear that digital is not really taking off either and cheap rentals seem to be all the rage.

Was digital supposed to take off yet? What have the studios done to try and push digital? Not much compared to the effort expended on Blu-ray over the last several years. I really don't care about digital. It's going to be the future, but until the studios get serious about it, it's not worth talking about.

So, did I miss all the people who talked beforehand about how weak the first quarter was going to be due to the upcoming lackluster releases? The first quarter was a continuation of the lackluster numbers that we saw in the third quarter of 2010. Catalog sales numbers are supposed to prop up sales during these non-holiday months, and I guess that isn't happening. Is there any reason for Best Buy, Wal-Mart, etc. to want to devote a lot of space to Blu-ray when one aisle can accommodate all the new stuff?
post #9695 of 11556
5/3/11 at 12:47pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarod M View Post

Was digital supposed to take off yet? What have the studios done to try and push digital? Not much compared to the effort expended on Blu-ray over the last several years. I really don't care about digital. It's going to be the future, but until the studios get serious about it, it's not worth talking about.

Ever heard of Apple? What about Walmart? Best Buy? All of those companies have a service to buy movies digitally. Best Buy and Walmart worked very closely with CE's to integrated their apps to buy (and rent) movies from common streaming devices. I have personally seen advertising campaigns for both these major players in stores near me. Apple is Apple. They have been selling devices like mad and have offered movies and TV shows for sale on iTunes for years. They revamped the AppleTV last year. I don't understand why you think the studios are not serious about it.

But why are you only focusing on Blu-Ray?

Quote:


So, did I miss all the people who talked beforehand about how weak the first quarter was going to be due to the upcoming lackluster releases? The first quarter was a continuation of the lackluster numbers that we saw in the third quarter of 2010. Catalog sales numbers are supposed to prop up sales during these non-holiday months, and I guess that isn't happening. Is there any reason for Best Buy, Wal-Mart, etc. to want to devote a lot of space to Blu-ray when one aisle can accommodate all the new stuff?

I don't know how you can just discount the really weak slate of releases from Hollywood and expect sales to be good when you can the same movie for a cheaper price. Home video is no different from any other medium for entertainment. Video games, music, books, etc are all in the same boat. The medium is only as good as the content that is being released on it, and it has been clear to me for awhile that Blu-Ray sales are going to be driven a lot more by new releases than catalog sales. I think catalog is still important, but the studios, by now, must realize that many people are not going to rebuy a movie (whether it be on Blu-Ray or digitally) they already own or can be watched on-demand or streamed via a service like Netflix for cheap.

We are seeing more catalog releases on Blu-Ray than last year so the studios must be seeing some benefit and making some level of profit on them or releases would be slowing, not gaining, vs previous years. Perhaps Kosty can post the DVD Report that shows this for Blu-Ray.

I am not saying that everything is rosy for Blu-Ray. It is not. Blu-Ray will never duplicate DVD's success. But guess what? Neither will digital... The game has changed. Home video is competing more than ever with other mediums. eReaders have revived reading. We have social media sites like Facebook, Twitter, etc that are competing with entertainment time. We have video games that are competing more and more with entertainment time, we have YouTube. We have cheap offerings like Netflix and Hulu. We have cable and sat providers that are providing access to thousands of TV shows and movies on-demand.

The game has changed. Blu-Ray can still be successful, but it is clear that it will never be what DVD was, and I will say it again, I don't think anything will ever capture the market that format did. It was in the right place at the right time. I see digital driving more rental than sales and the studios better get used to that concept for the future and plan accordingly. I still very much enjoy optical discs. I have invested a lot of money in my home theater gear and I expect there will always be some demand (and profit) from people like me for the studios.
post #9696 of 11556
5/3/11 at 3:28pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by ack_bk View Post

Ever heard of Apple? What about Walmart? Best Buy? All of those companies have a service to buy movies digitally. Best Buy and Walmart worked very closely with CE's to integrated their apps to buy (and rent) movies from common streaming devices. I have personally seen advertising campaigns for both these major players in stores near me. Apple is Apple. They have been selling devices like mad and have offered movies and TV shows for sale on iTunes for years. They revamped the AppleTV last year. I don't understand why you think the studios are not serious about it.

At what prices? So far the studios have agreed to sell their movies digitally at sometimes ridiculous pricing and with severe restrictions on where you can watch said movies. The advertising has been extremely limited when compared to what is done for movies on optical disc. If the studios have already made their push, then digital is already dead. And I don't believe that for a second.

Quote:


But why are you only focusing on Blu-Ray?

Look at the name of the thread.


Quote:


I don't know how you can just discount the really weak slate of releases from Hollywood and expect sales to be good when you can the same movie for a cheaper price. Home video is no different from any other medium for entertainment. Video games, music, books, etc are all in the same boat. The medium is only as good as the content that is being released on it, and it has been clear to me for awhile that Blu-Ray sales are going to be driven a lot more by new releases than catalog sales. I think catalog is still important, but the studios, by now, must realize that many people are not going to rebuy a movie (whether it be on Blu-Ray or digitally) they already own or can be watched on-demand or streamed via a service like Netflix for cheap.

We are seeing more catalog releases on Blu-Ray than last year so the studios must be seeing some benefit and making some level of profit on them or releases would be slowing, not gaining, vs previous years. Perhaps Kosty can post the DVD Report that shows this for Blu-Ray.

There is absolutely no evidence of this. Several studios gave up on releasing catalog titles last year. This year releasing has picked up, but this could be the studios dipping their toes back in the water, just to see if the climate has improved. It remains to be seen if the studios are going to be aggressive with their release slate for the rest of the year. Another potential problem is the quality. Some studios (Universal) don't want to spend money on these releases. Then when they release subpar product, it doesn't sell well, and poor sales dampen their enthusiasm to spend a lot of money on future releases. And it works the other way too, where shortcuts were taken on the high profile BTTF release. It ends up selling reasonable well, and now the studio is justified in taking those shortcuts on all its releases. Not a good situation. Another reason for more releases are the cheap releases currently being put out with no adherence to quality. 1080i releases, the wrong aspect ratio, and lossy sound are becoming more and more common. I wouldn't pay $5 for any of the upcoming Miramax titles before knowing about their quality.

Quote:


I am not saying that everything is rosy for Blu-Ray. It is not. Blu-Ray will never duplicate DVD's success. But guess what? Neither will digital... The game has changed. Home video is competing more than ever with other mediums. eReaders have revived reading. We have social media sites like Facebook, Twitter, etc that are competing with entertainment time. We have video games that are competing more and more with entertainment time, we have YouTube. We have cheap offerings like Netflix and Hulu. We have cable and sat providers that are providing access to thousands of TV shows and movies on-demand.

The game has changed. Blu-Ray can still be successful, but it is clear that it will never be what DVD was, and I will say it again, I don't think anything will ever capture the market that format did. It was in the right place at the right time. I see digital driving more rental than sales and the studios better get used to that concept for the future and plan accordingly. I still very much enjoy optical discs. I have invested a lot of money in my home theater gear and I expect there will always be some demand (and profit) from people like me for the studios.

The problem is that people tout the high sales of newer movies on Blu-ray like it means something. The sales numbers of those movies passed the required threshold a long time ago. Right now the big question concerns the catalog titles, and it is far from being answered.
post #9697 of 11556
5/3/11 at 8:51pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarod M View Post

At what prices? So far the studios have agreed to sell their movies digitally at sometimes ridiculous pricing and with severe restrictions on where you can watch said movies. The advertising has been extremely limited when compared to what is done for movies on optical disc. If the studios have already made their push, then digital is already dead. And I don't believe that for a second.

Yes, the studios have positioned optical disc to still be king, because, well, it is. But to pretend that Apple, Walmart, Amazon, and Best Buy (and there are more) with all those millions and millions (far more than Blu-Ray players) of digital playback devices don't count seems rather strange to me, I am sure that digital will get a bigger push by the studios, especially when Ultra Violet rolls out, but I don't think digital will suddenly leapfrog OD anytime soon from a sales perspective. But again it doesn't matter what format they push, if the studios do not make content that people feel is worth buying, well, it will hurt sales.


Quote:


Look at the name of the thread.

I thought we were discussing the DEG article? So we can only discuss Blu-Ray now? I guess that makes DVD off limits too

Quote:


There is absolutely no evidence of this. Several studios gave up on releasing catalog titles last year. This year releasing has picked up, but this could be the studios dipping their toes back in the water, just to see if the climate has improved. It remains to be seen if the studios are going to be aggressive with their release slate for the rest of the year. Another potential problem is the quality. Some studios (Universal) don't want to spend money on these releases. Then when they release subpar product, it doesn't sell well, and poor sales dampen their enthusiasm to spend a lot of money on future releases. And it works the other way too, where shortcuts were taken on the high profile BTTF release. It ends up selling reasonable well, and now the studio is justified in taking those shortcuts on all its releases. Not a good situation. Another reason for more releases are the cheap releases currently being put out with no adherence to quality. 1080i releases, the wrong aspect ratio, and lossy sound are becoming more and more common. I wouldn't pay $5 for any of the upcoming Miramax titles before knowing about their quality.

There is evidence that catalog releases have picked up in 2011. From March:


Here is the most recent release trends:


Are catalogs selling as well as the studios hoped on Blu-Ray? I think there have been hints that they have not. Are the studios making a profit? Better believe it. They would not be accelerating releases of catalog titles if it did not make fiscal sense. We are seeing deeper catalog titles across more studios.

As for your quality argument this is a studio decision. And it plagued DVD as well unless you honestly believe that DVD new releases and catalog titles did not have similar quality issues. The same will be true for digital. Some studios have just not had an emphasis on quality and they may never. I have watched upwards of 500 movies or so on Blu--Ray now, and even a poor transfer with lossy audio usually looks and sounds far superior to the DVD. But I would love to see some of the studios have a firmer commitment to quality. But I think this will always be the case. That is why I rent and read lots of reviews before buying titles from certain studios.


Quote:


The problem is that people tout the high sales of newer movies on Blu-ray like it means something. The sales numbers of those movies passed the required threshold a long time ago. Right now the big question concerns the catalog titles, and it is far from being answered.

It is what it is. As I mentioned there are many reasons for slower sales of Blu-Ray catalog titles and I don't think Blu-Ray was ever going to come close to equaling DVD. I doubt any format ever will, But clearly there can be money to be made in the format and it will have a very long lifespan. I suspect we will continue to see lots of catalog releases over the next 5-7 years and possibly longer unless digital can take off (which is just not happening either). Nearly half of America still does not even own an HDTV, and of those that do, a great number of those owners don't even subscribe to HD cable/sat. Still lots of upside.

I just don't think the studios have a choice. Blu-Ray is probably the best bet for them to maximize profit and revenue for many years to come. Whether you like it or not.
post #9698 of 11556
5/4/11 at 2:53am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarod M View Post

Was digital supposed to take off yet? What have the studios done to try and push digital? Not much compared to the effort expended on Blu-ray over the last several years. I really don't care about digital. It's going to be the future, but until the studios get serious about it, it's not worth talking about.

So, did I miss all the people who talked beforehand about how weak the first quarter was going to be due to the upcoming lackluster releases? The first quarter was a continuation of the lackluster numbers that we saw in the third quarter of 2010. Catalog sales numbers are supposed to prop up sales during these non-holiday months, and I guess that isn't happening. Is there any reason for Best Buy, Wal-Mart, etc. to want to devote a lot of space to Blu-ray when one aisle can accommodate all the new stuff?


Catalog sales for Blu-ray were substantially higher in the 1Q 2011 so were Blu-ray marketshares as well. The base rate of routine sales each week was alos much higher. Its just that March 2011 was particularly strong to compare to because of Twilight: New Moon and the last week having some Easter sales in it and the overall releases being better than in 1Q 2011.

Where have you been? Blu-ray catalog releases are twice as fast in 2011 over 2010 and all those retailers are devoting more space to Blu-ray this year.
post #9699 of 11556
5/4/11 at 3:00am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarod M View Post

...
There is absolutely no evidence of this. Several studios gave up on releasing catalog titles last year. This year releasing has picked up, but this could be the studios dipping their toes back in the water, just to see if the climate has improved. It remains to be seen if the studios are going to be aggressive with their release slate for the rest of the year.

That seems to be incorrect. The general release pace and for catalog titles is about double the pace of last year.


Quote:


The problem is that people tout the high sales of newer movies on Blu-ray like it means something. The sales numbers of those movies passed the required threshold a long time ago. Right now the big question concerns the catalog titles, and it is far from being answered.

New releases generate the most revenues and profits for the studios and retailers and are vastly important. Blu-ray is doing well in holding that steady as consumer upgrade from DVD as that where Blu-ray has had the most progress. Thats very important as thats where the money is and preserves the sales model for retailers.

Catalog sales are a bonus. Its declining for DVD in terms of revenues because of the price points being reduced and its greatly improving on Blu-ray but not enough to cover the revenue attrition of DVD in that segment.
post #9700 of 11556
5/4/11 at 3:56am
HMM 2Q 2011 stats:

Code:
14 04/10/11  04/09/11   128.60  46.06      174.66       26.37%          43.36%
15 04/17/11  04/16/11   134.40  50.10   184.50  27.15%          44.24%
HMM 2Q 2011 stats:

Code:
14 04/11/10  04/10/10 121.44  22.20 143.63  15.45%  24.71% (revised) was 119.99+18.57
15 04/18/11  04/17/10 107.69  16.41 130.49  12.09%  15.93% (revised) was 114.72+15.77

16 04/25/10  04/24/10   231.05  66.57 297.62  22.37%  43.29%
17 05/02/10  05/01/10   178.23  32.47   210.70  15.41%  32.97%
18 05/09/10  05/08/10   158.32  21.50   179.82  11.96%  22.18%
19 05/16/10  05/15/10   123.47  19.12   142.59  13.41%  27.17%
20 05/23/10  05/22/10   112.37  15.13   127.50  11.87%  22.36%
21 05/30/10  05/29/10   127.95  14.41   142.36  10.12%  19.72%
22 06/06/10  06/05/10   168.15  31.71   199.86  15.87%  32.48%
23 06/13/10  06/12/10   123.36  19.52   142.88  13.66%  26.77%
24 06/20/10  06/19/10   157.43  26.44   183.87  14.38%  31.58%
25 06/27/10  06/26/10   112.07  15.03   127.10  11.83%  26.25%
26 07/04/10  07/03/10   142.87  17.35   160.22  10.83%  24.14%
post #9701 of 11556
5/4/11 at 3:57am
FWIW

Right now through 15 weeks (WE 4/16/11) in the HMM stats

I have Blu-ray up YTY +23.00% ($490.41 M to $398.69 M)

I have DVD down YTY -24.40% (1,889.20 to 2,498.98)

I have DVD+BD down -17.88% (2,379.61 to 2,897.67)


Thats before we get the Avatar vs Harry Potter 7 and Easter data in the next day or so (WE 4/23/11).



So thats a bit of upward progress just in a few weeks of better releases in the 2Q 2011 period that the DEG report was alluding to. A little bit for DVD and for packaged media sell through in general but thats substantially better for Blu-ray to start the 2Q 2011 period and already bump up the YTD stats.
post #9702 of 11556
5/4/11 at 5:08pm
Week ending 5/01/11


Quote:


‘Potter’ on Top for Third Week


4 May, 2011
By: Thomas K. Arnold



Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 1

There’s no trouble with Harry.

Warner Home Video’s release of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part I, the seventh installment in the franchise, remained the country’s top-selling disc for a third consecutive week, boosting overall consumer spending on DVDs and Blu-ray Discs by double digits according to Home Media market research.

Its success gives the home entertainment business some very good news in the wake of a very weak first quarter that spawned negative “disc is dead” headlines all over the country.

Anchor Bay Entertainment’s Oscar-winning The King’s Speech, the most recent Best Picture, remained in high demand its second week in stores, finishing at No. 2 for the week ended May 1 on both the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales chart and Nielsen’s dedicated Blu-ray Disc chart. Blu-ray Disc sales were relatively weak, however; with Deathly Hallows outselling King’s Speech by a nearly 3-to-1 margin. Overall, consumers bought 66% as many copies as they did of Deathly Hallows during the week.

In its fourth week in stores, Walt Disney Studios’ Tron: Legacy zoomed back up to No. 4 on the national sales chart from No. 10 the week before, finishing right behind another Disney release, Tangled, which slipped to No. 3 its fifth week out after holding the No. 2 slot the previous week.

On Home Media Magazine’s weekly rental chart, 20th Century Fox’s Black Swan was an easy No. 1, having just come off its 28-day holdback from Netflix and Redbox. With no mail or kiosk availability, the title had labored near the bottom of the rental chart; last week, for example, it was No. 44.

Black Swan bumped The King’s Speech to No. 2, while two other films that had shot into the top 5 the previous week due to the expiration of their respective 28-day holdbacks, Universal Studios’ Skyline and Warner’s Yogi Bear, remained in high rental demand, finishing the week at No. 3 and No. 4, respectively. Sony Pictures’ The Tourist also remained at No. 5 for the second consecutive week.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...ird-week-23855
post #9703 of 11556
5/4/11 at 7:01pm
Week ending 4/23/11 revenues:

(Harry Potter week 2 and Easter vs Avatar release week in the matching 2010 week)

Blu-ray $45.83 M, DVD 4171.47 ,DVD+BD total of $217.30 is the best so far in 2011.

Overall DVD and Blu-ray revenues only down 8.27% in spite of being head to head with Avatar. Thats better than I expected.

post #9704 of 11556
5/4/11 at 11:08pm
That's pretty bad for The King's Speech being outsold 3-1 by the third week of Harry Potter. Perhaps The King's Speech is more of a rental title.
post #9705 of 11556
5/5/11 at 7:11am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

FWIW

Right now through 15 weeks (WE 4/16/11) in the HMM stats

I have Blu-ray up YTY +23.00% ($490.41 M to $398.69 M)

I have DVD down YTY -24.40% (1,889.20 to 2,498.98)

I have DVD+BD down -17.88% (2,379.61 to 2,897.67)


Thats before we get the Avatar vs Harry Potter 7 and Easter data in the next day or so (WE 4/23/11).

Have you calculated the data with the Avatar week?
post #9706 of 11556
5/5/11 at 8:58am
Its +15.26% for Blu-ray after the Avatar comparison week. Thats probably going to be the low point for that metric as its going to be biased upward now as there are no high volume 2010 weeks left from now until September.

I have not done all the calculations for DVD and DVD+Blu-ray yet, but DVD was flat last week because of the Easter week sales so those metrics will not drop as much from the week before.

When I use week 1 of 2011 as being week 1/08/11 I get Blu-ray up +15.26% that way (536.24 465.26) (week ending 1/08/11 though week ending 4/23/11)

Anyone who was saying that Blu-ray was going to be down after Avatar or that the growth rate was going to stay at 10% where it was after the 1Q 2011 period was being too pessimistic.

Blu-ray year to year growth rate should now steadily improve through September as the 2010 weeks be compared to are not as powerful as the ones we dealt with in March 2010 and Avatar week.





Here is all the revised data from HMM.

Code:
1Q 2011 and 2QTD 2011

1Q 2011
1       01/09/11        01/08/11        120.91  29.40   150.31  19.56%
2       01/16/11        01/15/11        108.51  26.98   135.49  19.91%
3       01/23/11        01/22/11        107.98  23.64   131.62  17.96%
4       01/30/11        01/29/11        122.05  29.16   151.21  19.28%
5       02/06/11        02/05/11        131.08  27.18   158.26  17.17%
6       02/13/11        02/12/11        145.34  26.66   172.00  15.50%
7       02/20/11        02/19/11        143.99  28.69   172.68  16.61%
8       02/27/11        02/26/11        130.35  30.61   160.96  19.02%
9       03/06/11        03/05/11        132.93  41.66   174.59  23.86%
10      03/13/11        03/12/11        116.11  30.85   146.96  20.99%
11      03/20/11        03/19/11        112.58  26.14   138.72  18.84%
12      03/27/11        03/26/11        110.21  25.33   135.54  18.69%
13      04/03/11        04/02/11        144.16  47.95   192.11  24.96%

2Q 2011
14      04/10/11        04/09/11        128.60  46.06   174.66  26.37%
15      04/17/11        04/16/11        134.40  50.10   184.50  27.15%
16      04/24/11        04/23/11        171.47  45.83   217.30  21.09%
Code:
1Q 2010 2Q 2010  (Weeks 1-16 revised data from HMM) 

1Q 2010
1       01/10/10        01/09/10        150.19  24.79   174.98  14.17%  26.22%  26.22%
2       01/17/10        01/16/10        142.59  21.24   163.83  12.96%  21.50%  21.50%
3       01/24/10        01/23/10        136.68  20.59   157.27  13.09%  28.03%  28.03%
4       01/31/10        01/30/10        154.30  22.85   177.15  12.90%  23.70%  23.70%
5       02/07/10        02/06/10        165.51  24.46   189.97  12.88%  23.93%  23.93%
6       02/14/10        02/13/10        189.00  24.48   213.48  11.47%  18.70%  18.70%
7       02/21/10        02/20/10        164.94  22.95   187.89  12.21%  13.08%  13.08%
8       02/28/10        02/27/10        133.69  20.31   154.00  13.19%  29.79%  29.79%
9       03/07/10        03/06/10        157.12  31.07   188.19  16.51%  32.23%  32.23%
10      03/14/10        03/13/10        167.79  26.48   194.27  13.63%  19.27%  19.27%
11      03/21/10        03/20/10        223.37  35.86   259.23  13.83%  20.22%  20.22%
12      03/28/10        03/27/10        224.46  45.31   269.77  16.80%  26.55%  26.55%
13      04/04/10        04/03/10        260.22  39.69   299.91  13.24%  13.98%  13.98%

2Q 2010
14      04/11/10        04/10/10        121.44  22.20   143.63  15.45%  24.71%  24.71%
15      04/18/10        04/17/10        107.69  16.41   130.49  12.09%  15.93%  15.93%
16      04/25/10        04/24/10        231.05  66.57   297.62  22.37%  43.29%  43.29%
17      05/02/10        05/01/10        178.23  32.47   210.70  15.41%  32.97%  32.97%
18      05/09/10        05/08/10        158.32  21.50   179.82  11.96%  22.18%  22.18%
19      05/16/10        05/15/10        123.47  19.12   142.59  13.41%  27.17%  27.17%
20      05/23/10        05/22/10        112.37  15.13   127.50  11.87%  22.36%  22.36%
21      05/30/10        05/29/10        127.95  14.41   142.36  10.12%  19.72%  19.72%
22      06/06/10        06/05/10        168.15  31.71   199.86  15.87%  32.48%  32.48%
23      06/13/10        06/12/10        123.36  19.52   142.88  13.66%  26.77%  26.77%
24      06/20/10        06/19/10        157.43  26.44   183.87  14.38%  31.58%  31.58%
25      06/27/10        06/26/10        112.07  15.03   127.10  11.83%  26.25%  26.25%
26      07/04/10        07/03/10        142.87  17.35   160.22  10.83%  24.14%  24.14%
post #9707 of 11556
5/5/11 at 10:38am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarod M View Post

Have you calculated the data with the Avatar week?

Here you go.


Right now through 16 weeks (WE 4/23/11) in the HMM stats, 3 weeks into 2Q 2011.


I have Blu-ray up YTY +15.26% ($536.24 M to $465.26 M)

I have DVD down YTY -24.52% (2,060.67 to 2,730.03)

I have DVD+BD down -18.73% (2,596.91 to3,195.29)


Thats now after the Avatar vs Harry Potter 7 and Easter sales data in is factored in (WE 4/23/11).



For Comparison:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

FWIW

Right now through 15 weeks (WE 4/16/11) in the HMM stats

I have Blu-ray up YTY +23.00% ($490.41 M to $398.69 M)

I have DVD down YTY -24.40% (1,889.20 to 2,498.98)

I have DVD+BD down -17.88% (2,379.61 to 2,897.67)


Thats before we get the Avatar vs Harry Potter 7 and Easter data in the next day or so (WE 4/23/11).



So thats a bit of upward progress just in a few weeks of better releases in the 2Q 2011 period that the DEG report was alluding to. A little bit for DVD and for packaged media sell through in general but thats substantially better for Blu-ray to start the 2Q 2011 period and already bump up the YTD stats.
post #9708 of 11556
5/5/11 at 7:10pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by ack_bk View Post

There is evidence that catalog releases have picked up in 2011. From March:

At the start of the year, I thought we were heading in the same direction as 2010 in terms of catalog releases. Shortly after that, I began noticing that the catalog output was greatly increasing in 2011. I wasn't sure if it was because more catalog movies were being released or if it was just that I was interested in many of the catalog releases this year, but this chart shows what happened.



As always, thank you Kosty for your continual updates.
post #9709 of 11556
5/6/11 at 12:20am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bishop_99 View Post

At the start of the year, I thought we were heading in the same direction as 2010 in terms of catalog releases. Shortly after that, I began noticing that the catalog output was greatly increasing in 2011. I wasn't sure if it was because more catalog movies were being released or if it was just that I was interested in many of the catalog releases this year, but this chart shows what happened.



As always, thank you Kosty for your continual updates.

Yep, catalog has definitely picked up steam in 2011. Hope this continues, because with the really weak slate of new releases so far in 2011, I am watching more catalog titles than ever before.
post #9710 of 11556
5/9/11 at 12:09am
Some updated slides through week ending 4/23/11

Revenue trends












post #9711 of 11556
5/9/11 at 12:09am
Comparison charts by quarter,

Current through week 3 2Q 2011 week ending 4/23/11














post #9712 of 11556
5/9/11 at 12:43am
Blu-ray Revenue Marketshare and Top 20 Unit Marketshare trends through 4/23/11









post #9713 of 11556
5/9/11 at 1:34am
Blu-ray and DVD comparisons and cumulative YTD trends through 4/23/11









post #9714 of 11556
5/12/11 at 5:10am
week ending 05/08/11

Quote:
'Green Hornet' Generates Buzz


11 May, 2011
By: Thomas K. Arnold


The Green Hornet

Sony Pictures Home Entertainment stung the competition with The Green Hornet, as the action-comedy film based on the classic TV show, with $98.8 million in theatrical earnings, debuted at No. 1 on all three home video charts for the week ended May 8.

On the two Nielsen VideoScan sales charts, Green Hornet ended Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 1’s three-week reign as the country’s top-selling disc. On First Alert, which includes both DVD and Blu-ray Disc sales, Deathly Hallows, from Warner, finished the week at No. 3, while Anchor Bay’s The King’s Speech held on to the No. 2 spot. On the dedicated Blu-ray Disc chart, Deathly Hallows was No. 2, with Universal Studios’ The Dilemma, a Vince Vaughn comedy that grossed only $48.4 million at the box office, bowing at No. 3. On the overall sales chart, The Dilemma didn’t fare as well, mustering only a No. 5 debut, behind 20th Century Fox’s Black Swan, No. 4 in its sixth week in stores.

Green Hornet also buzzed its way to the top of Home Media Magazine’s weekly disc rental chart, thanks to its immediate availability at Redbox and Blockbuster Express kiosks.

Universal Studios’ Little Fockers soared to No. 2 from No. 37 on the rental chart now that its 28-day holdback from Netflix and Redbox has expired. The King’s Speech was No. 3, while Black Swan, No. 1 the previous week, slipped to No. 4. Fox’s The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, which also went off embargo, shot up to No. 5 from No. 49.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...tes-buzz-23925
post #9715 of 11556
5/12/11 at 7:07pm
Business Notes
DVD revenue plummets 44% in 2010, SNL Kagan study says
By Ben Fritz, Los Angeles Times' 'Company Town' Blog - May 12th, 2011

With consumers increasingly switching to low-cost rentals from Netflix and Redbox, digital downloads and high-definition Blu-ray discs, revenue collected by studios from DVDs dropped 44% in 2010, according to a new study released by SNL Kagan.

The data reveal that wholesale revenue from DVDs in 2010 was $4.47 billion, down from $7.97 billion in 2009 and a high of $10.13 billion in 2007. The drop comes despite an 18% increase in the number of titles released by studios, to 415. However, the average number of units sold per title dropped by more than half, to 545,000, from 1.14 million in 2009.

Some of the decline is the result of other alternatives that make the studios as much or more money and were not accounted for in the SNL Kagan study. Consumer spending on buying and renting Blu-ray discs, for instance, rose 53% in 2010 to $2.3 billion, according to data from the industry trade organization Digital Entertainment Group. DEG also said that consumer spending on video on demand and digital downloads increased 19% to $2.5 billion.

A spokeswoman for SNL Kagan said the research firm will release separate data on Blu-ray sales soon.

DVD sales, however, remain the largest segment of Hollywood's critical home-entertainment business, and the drop in wholesale proceeds has hurt studios' bottom line. Walt Disney Studios, for instance, reported a 14% drop in home-entertainment revenue during the first three months of 2010, while the same segment for Universal Pictures fell 24%.

"Avatar" was the top-selling DVD of 2010, according to SNL Kagan. It sold 10.3 million units and generated $207.5 million in revenue for studio 20th Century Fox. That was less than the No. 1 DVD of 2009, "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen," which sold 11 million copies, and 2008's top title, "The Dark Knight," which sold 12.4 million DVDs.

The other top-selling DVDs of last year were "Toy Story 3," with 10 million copies; "The Twilight Saga: New Moon;" at 8.3 million; "The Twilight Saga: New Moon," with 7.9 million; and "The Blind Side," at 7.7 million. The top 10 was rounded out by "Despicable Me," "How to Train Your Dragon," "Iron Man 2," "The Princess and the Frog" and "Alice in Wonderland."

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/ente...tudy-says.html
post #9716 of 11556
5/13/11 at 7:29pm
I'm hearing all sorts of comments that that SNL Kagan study has many issues on the wholesale revenue number percentage decline related to some of the sampling and methodology assumptions. Individual title numbers seem to be fine but some of the top line numbers do not make sense from a unit/revenue level and the data does not match other industry sources such as Rentrak Video Essentials, Nielsen Videoscan, DEG, HMM and other sources. I think the study may have made some sampling assumptions that are not valid for 2010 as the market is transitioning.
post #9717 of 11556
5/13/11 at 7:38pm
Huzzah!:smile:

Nash Information Services which has posted the weekly Top 30 DVD sales estimates before that we have used has now announced it will now publish a weekly Blu-ray sales estimate and have historical data for all of 2010 available.

That should make things a tad easier for me as at least some more solid unit and revenue information for some Blu-ray titles will be available each week we can compare for the leading titles and match up with the Home Media Magazine weekly and Rentrak/DEG quarterly data.


Quote:


New at The Numbers: The Weekly Blu-ray Sales Chart

Since we launched our DVD sales chart back in August, 2007, our home market coverage has been one of the most popular features of the site. With the growth of the Blu-ray market since that time, we've received many requests to add Blu-ray tracking, and today we're pleased to announce the introduction of our weekly Blu-ray sales chart. Like the DVD sales chart, this includes weekly estimates for Blu-ray unit sales and consumer spending at retail, along with total sales to date for each title. Subscribers to our OpusData data service can get even more information through our Video Market subscription, which now includes Blu-ray sales and video rental data back to the beginning of 2010, with further historical reports to be added soon.

We will continue to publish our DVD sales chart every Monday, and the Blu-ray chart will follow on Tuesday each week. To match the chart publication dates, our weekly home market sales report will be split in two, with the DVD sales report appearing on Tuesday and the Blu-ray report on Wednesday. Click here for this week's Blu-ray sales report.

For a trial of the OpusData Video Market service, please email us at sales@opusdata.com.

- The Numbers' Weekly Blu-ray Sales Chart
- Blu-ray Sales: Potter Still Has Life on High Definition


http://www.the-numbers.com/weekly-bluray-sales-chart



Quote:


Blu-ray Sales: Potter Still Has Life on High Definition

While no new release made much of an impact on the Blu-ray sales chart this week, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I was still able to show some strength on top with 313,000 units sold for the week and 2.62 million units sold after three. Its total revenue is now $60.37 million and by comparison, only Avatar has been able to crack $100 million in Blu-ray sales. The King's Speech was well back in second place with 102,000 units sold for the week and 317,000 units after two. Tron: Legacy rose to third place with 87,000 units sold for the week, while its totals reached 1.33 million units / $32.10 million. This is slightly more than it has sold on DVD in terms of units, and much better in terms of dollars, which is impressive; however, I was hoping for more. Tangled was roughly 100 units behind in fourth place, but its running tally is now 2.39 million units / $56.64 million, which shows that being a kids movie is not longer a detriment for a High Definition release. Rounding out the top five was Life with 47,000 units, which is substantially more than is sold on DVD for the week for the week, while thanks to its high per unit price common to TV releases, it was fourth in terms of dollars at $1.98 million.

The best new release of the week was well back in tenth place. Human Planet opened with 32,000 units, which was a little more than what it sold on DVD. The only other new release to crack to the top 20 was South Park: Season 14 in 16th place at just under 23,000 units.

In terms of units sold, the overall Blu-ray market was down 12.5% from last week and 47% from last year. There were multiple factors for this sharp declining, including, as I mentioned before, a particularly brutal week in terms of new releases. It was also the week after Easter, and the sales that accompany that holiday. Meanwhile this week last year Avatar was still selling great, and as we've seen at the box office, it's really unfair to expect sales to be the same without the highest grossing film of all time. However, because of the strength of a few TV releases, Blu-ray was not as weak in terms of dollars down 39% from last week, but up 1% from last year. Blu-ray did score a solid 26% of the total market in terms of units sold and 34% in terms of dollars.


- C.S.Strowbridge


Date posted: 2011-05-12

Movies
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I
The King's Speech
Tron: Legacy
Tangled
post #9718 of 11556
5/13/11 at 7:38pm
I am going to love this.

We can now directly compare DVD and Blu-ray sales of new releases on the-numbers charts. Now we can get up to the current week cumulative sales since the beginning of the year for every Blu-ray release from now on and direct compare up to date unit sales and revenue estimates for the Blu-ray sales and compare it to the DVD units and sales for each new release.

I've been waiting for that data for four years now.

I'm a geeky nerdy happy camper right now. :biggrin::biggrin::biggrin:

Just looking at HP7 we can see they estimate its sold 4.93 M DVD to date and 2.62 M Blu-ray units but the Blu-ray versions are a lot more profitable as the cumulative DVD revenues are $70.01 M while the Blu-ray sales have generated $60.37 M with a lot less units. Thats cool to see. Thats a lot more revenue and profit per unit sold for the Blu-ray versions.

We can also now compare new releases in the future's DVD and Blu-ray sales with the DVD only sales of titles released from 2007 to 2010.

Code:
US DVD Sales Chart for Week Ending May 1, 2011
Weekly Domestic Blu-ray Sales Chart for Week Ending May 1, 2011

DVD
1 1 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I    636,082  -65.70%  4,928,383   $9,623,921  $70,014,693  3

Blu-ray
1 1 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I    312,644  -59.66%  2,618,015  $7,365,893  $60,366,372  3
post #9719 of 11556
5/13/11 at 7:39pm
I'm geeking nerding out here.

Just combined the latest weeks DVD and Blu-ray charts from the-numbers for week ending 05/01/10 and just looked at the cumulative sales columns and for common titles. I can see the Blu-ray and DVD units and revenues for 6 common titles.

Whats great is it shows not only the cumulative unit market share which we never had before for Blu-ray as well as DVD it also shows the cumulative revenue share for both DVD and Blu-ray.

It clearly shows that the Blu-ray revenue marketshare (retailer and studio profits) for each title is substantially higher than the unit marketshare numbers.

These estimates also include a guess for Walmart sales so the unit marketshare numbers will vary from the reported Nielsen Videoscan first alert reports.

Code:
05/01/11 Matching DVD and Blu-ray Cumulative Totals 

Units             Unit%           Rev%    Revenues      
        
5,833,614        70.93% DVD      61.14%   $89,113,228  Tangled
2,390,308        29.07%   Blu-ray  38.86%     $56,641,792           
8,223,922                                $145,755,020           
                                                
4,928,383        65.31% DVD      53.70%   $70,014,693  Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I
2,618,015        34.69%   Blu-ray  46.30%     $60,366,372           
7,546,398                                $130,381,065           
                                                
3,400,334        76.45% DVD      64.63%   $42,868,171  Megamind
1,047,354        23.55%   Blu-ray  35.37%     $23,462,476           
4,447,688                                 $66,330,647           
                                                
1,273,973        48.93% DVD      39.39%   $20,861,326  Tron: Legacy
1,329,461        51.07%   Blu-ray  60.61%     $32,100,234           
2,603,434                                 $52,961,560           
                                                
1,370,061        68.54% DVD      64.88%   $23,284,724  The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
  628,875        31.46%   Blu-ray  35.12%     $12,604,666           
1,998,936                                 $35,889,390           
                                                
1,315,919        80.59% DVD      75.71%   $20,419,921  The King's Speech
  316,868        19.41%   Blu-ray  24.29%      $6,552,908           
1,632,787                                 $26,972,829   





.
post #9720 of 11556
5/14/11 at 1:01pm
How do Blu-rays released with a DVD version included get measured in this charts/comparisons? Is it considered a 'BD' purchase? Is the included DVD copy counted as a sold DVD in the DVD chart? And shouldn't the BD/DVD also be measured as a 'lost' DVD sale somewhat? Because, if someone buys a BD/DVD of a movie, there's no reason for that person to buy an additional separate DVD of that movie. Hence, an amount of 'lost' DVD sales that went to BD could be tallied and added-up to see if it makes-up for the lost revenue that DVD no longer makes on its own.
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