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BLU-RAY SALES THREAD: Put all sales figures and comments here! - Page 334  

post #9991 of 11556
7/24/11 at 8:01am
But I just love this that specifically Nielsen and NPD were mentioned here as they are the primary source of movie software sales data and Blu-ray and DVD and HDTV hardware sales data that are of a concern to us.

It will also be just dang great that I no longer will have to explain to people every few months that Nielsen Videoscan Blu-ray marketshare percentages and index numbers were calculated out without considering Walmart sales.

Did I say I was a happy Kosty?

Gear mentioned in this thread:

post #9992 of 11556
7/24/11 at 8:02am
http://adage.com/article/news/wal-ma...haring/228845/

I've gotten more feedback from many happy professional contacts on this issue.

First off, its great that Nielsen is going to be the primary data integrator for Walmart on the entire data system usage. From our perspective that means Walmart will use Nielsen tools and software to manage their data and for us that means that there is a 100% integration of Walmart point of sale scanner census data fully synced with the Nielsen Videoscan first alert weekly charts and graphs.

So starting in a month or so, maybe sooner, the HMM reported Nielsen Videoscan first alert Top 20 Sellers and Top 20 Blu-ray charts published each week will go from 60% North American market coverage to about 98% electronic transactional sales coverage in a week for packaged media sales.

The immediate result will be greater accuracy and we should see the published Blu-ray market shares and Top 20 Sellers unit metrics drop a few points, but it will be just great as we no longer will have to keep that in mind and will have immediately amazingly accurate data as the Walmart share will no longer have to be estimated.

The significant problem with estimating the growing but variable Walmart share of Blu-ray sales that differs from the rest of the market and for specific genres and titles instantly vanishes. Unit counts will be very accurate very fast and revenue counts will be much closer as well for all estimates. That will happen to the current data immediately and in time for the high volume 4Q and the start of the mid September better releases. Historical data revision may not be immediate though in any case and it may take years if ever for some historical data to be revised I am told.

But this will have an immediate increase in accuracy for our data. We have really been quite blessed as hobbyists to get the weekly data we already do get over the years, now it will be simply remarkable for us to this level of accuracy as well. Happy dance.

When we see a title having a Blu-ray marketshare then, it really will have that as a Blu-ray marketshare.

Estimating revenues may still be a bit more problematic as that data may be not as readily distributed for all of the data capture but its going to be much more accurate as well as variation in Walmart stores for pricing has always been a modeling issue.

Cindy Davis at Walmart is my new executive heroine.

This just made my life a lot easier for more than my Blu-ray watching hobby.

I am very happy at this news as are a lot of my professional friends.

Quote:
The executive behind the change apparently is Cindy Davis, the former Sam's Club chief marketer who earlier this year became exec VP of Wal-Mart global consumer insights, spanning all of the retailer's U.S. and global divisions.

In a statement provided by Nielsen, Ms. Davis said, "This expanded relationship with Nielsen will provide Walmart and Sam's Club with deeper insights into customer purchasing -- and unmet needs -- both nationally and in key local markets." Sharing information, she said, will also help Walmart and Sam's identify category growth opportunities sooner and develop more "impactful" programs.

Quote:
Wal-Mart Lifts Decade-Long Ban on Data Sharing

Move Gives Nielsen, SymphonyIRI, Others Access to Scanner Information for Walmart and Sam's Club Chains

Advertising Age

By: Jack Neff Published: July 21, 2011

http://adage.com/article/news/wal-ma...haring/228845/

Wal-Mart Stores is lifting the lid on its U.S. sales data vault more than a decade after restricting access for most outside parties, allowing data syndicator Nielsen Co. and other research firms to receive and analyze scanner data both from its flagship Walmart chain and Sam's Club stores.

The move will eliminate a gaping black hole in consumer packaged-goods sales data that research firms and marketers have had to work around for years using consumer panel data and advanced modeling.

It also has the potential to make the marketing-mix modeling CPG and other marketers use as the basis for measuring marketing ROI considerably more accurate.

Nielsen will begin providing clients access to Walmart and Sam's data in "a few months," said Nielsen spokeswoman Jennifer Frighetto. "We're raring to go," she said, "And starting to work with [Wal-Mart] and train them and we will be providing new views of our U.S. industry numbers. It's a big impact."

The deal covers "census" data, or data from all U.S. Walmart stores, Neighborhood Markets and Sam's Clubs, and will include historical data, Ms. Frighetto said, though she didn't immediately have information on how far back it will go.

"Walmart will be sharing their data with other providers as well," Ms. Frighetto said. "What's different here is that Nielsen is the primary provider. So they'll be using our data and tools. We'll be training Walmart on using this data that they haven't been using for so long."

SymphonyIRI is in the process of finalizing an agreement with Wal-Mart that will provide the same level of access to the retailer's scanner data, said John McIndoe, senior VP-marketing. At the same time, he said SymphonyIRI has been named Wal-Mart's preferred supplier of shopper and consumer insights, and will be the "platform of choice" to provide Walmart customer insights.

Wal-Mart's policy change is potentially a win for other research firms, too, such as NPD Group, which also had access to Walmart scanner data prior to the ban more than a decade ago. An NPD spokeswoman couldn't immediately be reached for comment. A Walmart spokeswoman was in a meeting and also couldn't immediately provide comment on the reason for ending the ban on industry data-sharing.

The executive behind the change apparently is Cindy Davis, the former Sam's Club chief marketer who earlier this year became exec VP of Wal-Mart global consumer insights, spanning all of the retailer's U.S. and global divisions.

In a statement provided by Nielsen, Ms. Davis said, "This expanded relationship with Nielsen will provide Walmart and Sam's Club with deeper insights into customer purchasing -- and unmet needs -- both nationally and in key local markets." Sharing information, she said, will also help Walmart and Sam's identify category growth opportunities sooner and develop more "impactful" programs.

http://adage.com/article/news/wal-ma...haring/228845/
post #9993 of 11556
7/24/11 at 8:03am
No specific mention of Nielsen Videoscan or packaged media as a category but those are the overlapping retailers that are in the first alert data capture net each week and DVD and Blu-ray packaged media can be considered a consumable as opposed to a durable or white goods..

Quote:


July 22, 2011, 1:43 p.m. EDT

Wal-Mart to give sales data to Nielsen

Industry players can get more “realistic” market-share picture

By Andria Cheng, MarketWatch -WSJ

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — In a move that’s expected to fill an information gap in the industry, Walmart U.S., the biggest unit of the world’s largest retailer Wal-Mart Stores Inc., will release some of its sales data to research firm Nielsen Co. for the first time in more than a decade.

The Bentonville, Ark.-based company’s Sam’s Club wholesale-membership chain already provides information to Nielsen, the data research and analytics firm said, declining to outline the terms of the agreement.

Walmart WMT will provide sales data in the grocery, consumables and over-the-counter drug categories, company spokeswoman Tara Raddohl said. Those categories represent the bulk of the approximately $260 billion in sales for Walmart U.S.


“This expanded relationship with Nielsen will provide Walmart and Sam’s Club with deeper insights into customer purchasing — and unmet needs — both nationally and in key local markets,” said Cindy Davis, head of Walmart global customer insights, in a statement from Nielsen. “We plan to share our point-of-sale information to help us identify category-growth opportunities sooner and collaborate with our manufacturer partners.”

The announcement came as the retail giant’s U.S. unit is seeking to reserve eight straight quarters of negative same-store sales, hurt in part by prior decisions to take products such as plus-sized apparel or hunting gear off shelves. Wal-Mart also has been hurt by the slow U.S. job growth and inflation in gasoline and food costs that have further limited its lower-income shoppers’ ability to spend.

Earlier this year, the company named Davis, who was an executive at Sam’s Club, to the newly created global customer-insights team to better study trends and consumer needs and wants. Sam’s Club has outperformed its larger chain as it rolled out initiatives such as the eValues program, which gives customers discounts based on their shopping patterns.

The participation from Walmart U.S. also will help the retail industry — from rivals Target Corp. TGT +0.15% and Dollar General Corp. DG -0.63% to suppliers like Procter & Gamble Co. PG -0.37% and Kraft Foods Inc. KFT -0.11% — to better understand how consumers spend their money in an environment where they’re increasingly discriminating, analysts said.


Schaumburg, Ill.-based Nielsen already receives data from the majority of U.S. food, drug, discount, convenience and dollar-store chains, and counts those retailers and their suppliers as customers.

“It’s going to help everybody get a realistic picture of their market share,” said John Long, a retail strategist at consulting firm Kurt Salmon. “It’s going to help Walmart understand where it has opportunities. The addition of Walmart will be meaningful.”

Andria Cheng is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wal...me_latest_news
post #9994 of 11556
7/24/11 at 8:03am
Quote:
Wal-Mart to give its U.S. store data to Nielsen

CHICAGO | Thu Jul 21, 2011 9:46am EDT

(Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N) has agreed to give its U.S. store data to Nielsen Holdings NV (NLSN.N), bolstering an industry benchmark that has long lacked insights into sales at the world's largest chain.

Nielsen gathers and analyzes sales information from a variety of U.S. chain stores, giving manufacturers, Wall Street analysts and others a glimpse at how products such as food and detergent are selling -- everywhere from grocery stores such as Kroger Co (KR.N) to mass merchants such as Target Corp

However, Wal-Mart's U.S. discount stores had not shared its data in more than a decade, which meant that Nielsen's widely used metrics were missing the country's largest retailer in terms of revenue.

Walmart and Sam's Club stores will now report their sales information to Nielsen, and Nielsen will become Walmart's primary provider for market information, tools and training, the companies said in a joint announcement on Thursday.

The move comes after Wal-Mart in February named Sam's Club executive Cindy Davis as the executive vice president of Walmart global customer insights, a new team that is studying customer trends.

(Reporting by Jessica Wohl, editing by Maureen Bavdek)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...siness+News%29
post #9995 of 11556
7/24/11 at 8:04am
Quote:
UPDATE 2-

Wal-Mart to once again share U.S. store data


Thu Jul 21, 2011 5:14pm EDT

* Nielsen to analyze sales data from U.S. Walmart stores

* Walmart not included in Nielsen data for over 10 years

* SymphonyIRI says it will also have Walmart data soon

* Walmart accounts for nearly 11 pct of U.S. retail sales (Adds comments from other data companies, analyst, byline)

By Jessica Wohl

CHICAGO, July 21 (Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N) will no longer keep a tight lid on its U.S. sales data after agreeing to share information with outside research firms to help it better understand how and why customers make choices.

The world's largest retailer said on Thursday it wouldprovide sales data from its U.S. Walmart chain to Nielsen Holdings NV (NLSN.N), bolstering an industry benchmark that has lacked Walmart's sales data for more than a decade.


Walmart has posted two straight years of declining sales at stores open at least a year, an industry metric known as same-store sales, as rivals chip away at its dominant market position. It aims to return to growth sometime this year.

Wal-Mart's Sam's Club warehouse club chain was already sharing data with outside firms.

SymphonyIRI said it would soon announce a similar pact with Walmart, which accounts for close to 11 percent of total U.S. retail sales. Wal-Mart will use research from the firms to better understand its customers.

Nielsen and SymphonyIRI gather and analyze sales data from U.S. chain stores ranging from grocery stores such as Kroger Co (KR.N) to mass merchants such as Target Corp (TGT.N) to give manufacturers, Wall Street analysts and others insight into how various products are selling.

Without Walmart, the widely used data did not include the country's largest retailer. Walmart rang up $260.3 billion in sales in its latest fiscal year. U.S. retail sales topped $2.37 trillion in 2010, according to the National Retail Federation.

BIG DEAL FOR SUPPLIERS

The change is important for companies such as chocolate manufacturer Hershey Co (HSY.N) and household products maker Clorox Co (CLX.N) , which depend on Wal-Mart for a quarter or more of their sales.

Companies that sell their goods to Walmart were already able to see some performance data, but generally could not see how their sales stacked up against competitors.

"This is a very big deal, to know how these companies' products are selling at Walmart," said Dave Kolpak, an analyst at Victory Capital Management.


Unlike many other chains, Walmart does not have a loyalty card, which can help retailers track how shoppers spend their money, what times of day they buy, how much they are buying on sale or with coupons, and other data.

Wal-Mart appears ready to figure out the best way to use its data and work with outsiders to gain more insights.

In February, it named Sam's Club executive Cindy Davis as the executive vice president of global customer insights, a new team that is studying customer trends. [ID:nN14104778]

Along with sharing its data, Walmart will also use Nielsen as its primary provider for market information, tools and training.

SymphonyIRI said it was working on a similar data agreement and that it would become Walmart's preferred provider of shopper insights, an area that Walmart is working on.

"Now we just need them to start giving monthly same-store sales again," said Kolpak. Wal-Mart discontinued issuing monthly updates on its sales performance in 2009. (Reporting by Jessica Wohl, additional reporting by Brad Dorfman, editing by Maureen Bavdek and Ted Kerr)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...pe=companyNews
post #9996 of 11556
7/24/11 at 8:05am
Nielsen's press release. Seems to be comprehensive across all Nielsen products and categories.


Quote:


Nielsen Signs US Cooperation Agreement With Walmart, World's Largest Retailer

Walmart Names Nielsen Primary Provider


Contact: Jennifer Frighetto 847.605.5686

Schaumburg, Ill., July 21, 2011 – Nielsen, the leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers watch and buy, has signed a cooperation agreement with Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, to receive and analyze sales information from Walmart’s U.S. stores.

The agreement marks Walmart’s return to the consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry’s information sharing model.

The majority of U.S. food, drug, mass, convenience and dollar store retailers already provide Nielsen with sales information, and this will add to the existing market information, enabling Nielsen to provide a better, more precise view of consumer purchase activity for the benefit of the industry.

Nielsen will be working with Walmart (including Neighborhood Market) and Sam’s Club to report their sales information and incorporate it into existing reads of the marketplace. This new base of information will have better and more accurate coverage for all participating retailers and manufacturers, providing improved insights into sales volumes, pricing, merchandising and promotions. As part of the agreement, Nielsen will be Walmart’s primary provider for information, tools and training.

“Nielsen is thrilled to expand our relationship with Walmart, adding to the momentum we’ve established with their sister company, Sam’s Club,” said John Lewis, president and CEO, North America Consumer, Nielsen.

“We believe that Walmart’s participation in the information sharing model reinforces the importance of business information and analytics in today’s retail climate. Nielsen is confident that both retailers and consumer goods manufacturers will benefit significantly from greater accuracy of information on what consumers buy.”

“This expanded relationship with Nielsen will provide Walmart and Sam’s Club with deeper insights into customer purchasing -- and unmet needs -- both nationally and in key local markets,” according to Cindy Davis, executive vice president of Walmart global customer insights. “We plan to share our point-of-sale information to help us identify category growth opportunities sooner and collaborate with our manufacturer partners to develop more impactful customer-driven programs going forward.”

Nielsen will incorporate Walmart and Sam’s Club retail sales information and define new views of U.S. industry numbers and sales information databases over the next several months.

About Nielsen
Nielsen Holdings N.V. (NYSE: NLSN) is a global information and measurement company with leading market positions in marketing and consumer information, television and other media measurement, online intelligence, mobile measurement, trade shows and related properties. Nielsen has a presence in approximately 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA and Diemen, the Netherlands. For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.

http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insight...h-walmart.html
post #9997 of 11556
7/24/11 at 8:08am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland View Post

So Kosty, I assume you are thrilled about Walmart sales data that will be available soon via Nielsen. Should prove interesting

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Yes I am.

Will post some articles up tomorrow.

Did I mentioned I am a Happy Kosty?

That change is going to make my life easier in so many ways, not just in my following Blu-ray sales hobby, but also in a lot of things I do.

Its great news for me and I really did not think was going to happen anytime soon.

post #9998 of 11556
7/24/11 at 8:20am
Blockbuster to Keep Open 1,500 Stores - DISH has closed only 200 - 90% still open


Quote:
Blockbuster to Keep Open 1,500 Stores


21 Jul, 2011
By: Erik Gruenwedel



Dish Network-owned rental chain shutters less than 200 stores since acquiring brand

Blockbuster LLC July 21 said it would continue operating 1,500 stores and employing 15,000 employees nationwide going forward.

The figure, which represents the first definitive store count since satellite TV operator Dish Network Corp. acquired the Blockbuster brand for $320 million in April, underscores the strength of traditional video stores despite ongoing market changes.

Indeed, Blockbuster LLC will continue to operate 90% of the stores it acquired in the asset sale.

“By lowering pricing and offering competitive summer promotions, we’ve brought millions of customers back into Blockbuster stores in the last three months to experience the best in convenience, choice and value,” said Michael Kelly, president of Blockbuster LLC. “Today, more than 100 million people live near a Blockbuster store.”

Indeed, Blockbuster has aggressively sought to compete directly with rental kiosks and Netflix by offering its Blockbuster Total Access subscribers unlimited in-store rentals on all titles, including new releases, video games and Blu-ray Disc without additional charges.

Kelly said Blockbuster store locations closing were due primarily to issues with landlords and not local market demographics. He said Blockbuster would seek alternative physical distribution channels in these areas.


http://www.homemediamagazine.com/blo...0-stores-24568
post #9999 of 11556
7/24/11 at 12:54pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

That change is going to make my life easier in so many ways, not just in my following Blu-ray sales hobby, but also in a lot of things I do.

I sure hope. Some will probably continue to argue with you just because it is Kosty making the post. At any rate it will be good to have the new data available.
post #10000 of 11556
7/24/11 at 12:55pm
Update on current summer $100+ million films (including April release Fast Five):


Here's a list of the 100 M + titles performance to date 2011 vs 2010 that will be the big releases for the fall 4Q holiday season.

Color coded to Blu-ray genre performance.

There is a lot more Blu-ray friendly superhero action stuff this year compared to last year's family animation and teen vampire being more prominent.

EDIT: added Captain America box office and position in list, $68.5 M opening weekend on par with Thor and above X-Men: First Class. Updated available numbers.

Code:
$325,789,000  Transformers: Dark of the Moon      
$274,182,000  Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2       updated 
$252,160,717  The Hangover Part II        ,
$237,710,309  Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 
$209,276,125  Fast Five
$179,793,188  Thor
+$65,827,000+ Captain America: The First Avenger    added
$176,445,000  Cars 2
$162,506,885  Bridesmaids
$160,458,602  Kung Fu Panda 2
$144,197,318  X-Men: First Class
$123,475,060  Super 8
$113,538,597  Green Lantern
+
+$94,355,000+  Bad Teacher
+$82,402,000+  Horrible Bosses
Code:

$415,004,880  Toy Story 3                               
$312,433,331  Iron Man 2                                 
$300,531,751  Twilight Saga: Eclipse                       
$292,568,851  Inception                                   
$251,203,225  Despicable Me                               
$238,736,787  Shrek Forever After                             
$217,581,231  How to Train Your Dragon                    
$162,001,186  Grown Ups      
$131,772,187  The Last Airbender                       
$119,219,978  The Other Guys                
$118,311,368  Salt    
$105,487,148  Robin Hood      
$103,068,524  The Expendables        


+ these that were close
 $95,347,692  Sex and the City 2            
 $90,759,676  Prince of Persia: Sands of Time
post #10001 of 11556
7/24/11 at 1:15pm
2011 vs 2010 $100 M+ Box Office sorted by Blu-ray Genre Performance


Obviously a lot more superhero or action films this year and a lot more animation films last year for the releases that show up in the 4Q holiday sales season.

Code:
$325,789,000  Transformers: Dark of the Moon      
$274,182,000  Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2       
$237,710,309  Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 
$209,276,125  Fast Five
$179,793,188  Thor
+$65,827,000+ Captain America: The First Avenger    
$144,197,318  X-Men: First Class
$123,475,060  Super 8
$113,538,597  Green Lantern

$176,445,000  Cars 2
$160,458,602  Kung Fu Panda 2

$252,160,717  The Hangover Part II        ,
$162,506,885  Bridesmaids
+$94,355,000+  Bad Teacher
+$82,402,000+  Horrible Bosses
Code:

$312,433,331  Iron Man 2  
$292,568,851  Inception   
$131,772,187  The Last Airbender
$118,311,368  Salt    
$105,487,148  Robin Hood      
$103,068,524  The Expendables        
 $90,759,676  Prince of Persia: Sands of Time        

$415,004,880  Toy Story 3                               
$251,203,225  Despicable Me                               
$238,736,787  Shrek Forever After                             
$217,581,231  How to Train Your Dragon                    
               

$300,531,751  Twilight Saga: Eclipse                                   
$162,001,186  Grown Ups     
$119,219,978  The Other Guys                
 $95,347,692  Sex and the City 2
post #10002 of 11556
7/24/11 at 2:02pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

2011 vs 2010 $100 M+ Box Office sorted by Blu-ray Genre Performance


Obviously a lot more superhero or action films this year and a lot more animation films last year for the releases that show up in the 4Q holiday sales season.

Code:
$325,789,000  Transformers: Dark of the Moon      
$274,182,000  Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2       
$237,710,309  Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 
$209,276,125  Fast Five
$179,793,188  Thor
+$65,827,000+ Captain America: The First Avenger    
$144,197,318  X-Men: First Class
$123,475,060  Super 8
$113,538,597  Green Lantern

$176,445,000  Cars 2
$160,458,602  Kung Fu Panda 2

$252,160,717  The Hangover Part II        ,
$162,506,885  Bridesmaids
+$94,355,000+  Bad Teacher
+$82,402,000+  Horrible Bosses
Code:

$312,433,331  Iron Man 2  
$292,568,851  Inception   
$118,311,368  Salt    
$105,487,148  Robin Hood      
$103,068,524  The Expendables        
 $90,759,676  Prince of Persia: Sands of Time        

$415,004,880  Toy Story 3                               
$251,203,225  Despicable Me                               
$238,736,787  Shrek Forever After                             
$217,581,231  How to Train Your Dragon                    
$131,772,187  The Last Airbender               

$300,531,751  Twilight Saga: Eclipse                                   
$162,001,186  Grown Ups     
$119,219,978  The Other Guys                
 $95,347,692  Sex and the City 2

I gather that the color coding represents your estimate of how the film will do on Blu-ray relative to its genre, with blue being something like "above average", yellow being "OK", and red below "below". Is this correct?

If so, I am a bit surprised by some of the categorizations. In particular:
-- Pirates may well have run out of gas and may fall below genre.
-- X-Men is questionable for the blue category but I think it will do better than expected on Blu-ray. We will have to see.
-- Kung Fu Panda 2 may well do better than Blu-ray than its genre as a compensation for lousy BO.
-- Cars has run out of gas artistically but Disney may turn it around on Blu-ray, we will see.
-- Bridesmaids--the biggest economic success of the summer--looks likely to do above average for genre on Blu-ray. It has held very well and there is no reason this shouldn't continue. If you had to invest in a film, Bridesmaids would have been a great choice this summer.
-- Horrible Bosses may also do better than genre (although the film seems less likely to me to do so than Bridemaids)
-- Hangover II may do worse than expected. It has acquired the reputation for being a total remake and people may be tired of it. Go Netflix.

Of course I am guessing, just thought I would step into the fray.
post #10003 of 11556
7/24/11 at 2:12pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Week ending 7/10/11 The-Numbers narrative up


Why did they --- the LOTR total instead of adding in week 1 ?

& why is it week 343....shouldnt they split this EE as a seperate release ?
post #10004 of 11556
7/24/11 at 2:17pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

I gather that the color coding represents your estimate of how the film will do on Blu-ray relative to its genre, with blue being something like "above average", yellow being "OK", and red below "below". Is this correct?

No i would say he means:
blue = action
red = kids
yellow = adult
post #10005 of 11556
7/24/11 at 3:40pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by dcowboy7 View Post
No i would say he means:
blue = action
red = kids
yellow = adult

That makes sense as well.


Bob
post #10006 of 11556
7/24/11 at 3:56pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post
I gather that the color coding represents your estimate of how the film will do on Blu-ray relative to its genre, with blue being something like "above average", yellow being "OK", and red below "below". Is this correct?

If so, I am a bit surprised by some of the categorizations. In particular:
-- Pirates may well have run out of gas and may fall below genre.
-- X-Men is questionable for the blue category but I think it will do better than expected on Blu-ray. We will have to see.
-- Kung Fu Panda 2 may well do better than Blu-ray than its genre as a compensation for lousy BO.
-- Cars has run out of gas artistically but Disney may turn it around on Blu-ray, we will see.
-- Bridesmaids--the biggest economic success of the summer--looks likely to do above average for genre on Blu-ray. It has held very well and there is no reason this shouldn't continue. If you had to invest in a film, Bridesmaids would have been a great choice this summer.
-- Horrible Bosses may also do better than genre (although the film seems less likely to me to do so than Bridemaids)
-- Hangover II may do worse than expected. It has acquired the reputation for being a total remake and people may be tired of it. Go Netflix.

Of course I am guessing, just thought I would step into the fray.
Nah. That's not what the color coding means at all.

Its my color coding of sorting the titles into genre's based on how well those titles perform with Blu-ray marketshare and Blu-ray performance.

It was just sorting them into genres of superhero/action, animation and comedy or romance.

I really was not making an assessment of how each individual title would perform according to the specific expectations we might have of it against its genre.

But I think your comments have a lot of merit but that's not what the color coding means as I did not consider how those titles would do video sales wise vs their genre or box office performance at all. Its strictly color coded and sorted by genre and then box office.
post #10007 of 11556
7/24/11 at 3:58pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by dcowboy7 View Post
No i would say he means:
blue = action
red = kids
yellow = adult
blue = superhero/action

red = animation

orange = comedy romance teen vampire etc



Sorry I had a legend in an earlier version, kinda thought it was self explanatory but I can see the possibility of confusion.
post #10008 of 11556
7/24/11 at 4:01pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by silverado from HDD
Why are you looking forward to the 4th quarter? Could you be more specific.

Err... I meant that this is a list of summer releases that will hit the streets in the 4Q and is sorted by genre and current box office performance. In that sense I meant the phrase to be literal in that these are the major summer releases that we can look forward to seeing as coming up in the 4Q.


Now after saying that, in the sense that you took the phrase, I indeed am looking forward to the 4Q 2011 season and seeing the performance of these titles.

Last year the top 10 major box office performers that drove the 4Q revenues were dominated by animation and the Twilight teen vampire movie and only had two really most Blu-ray friendly action titles, Iron Man 2 and Inception in that group. Seven of the top 10 4Q releases from the summer movies were either family animation or comedies or the Twilight saga.

This year we will have six of the top ten movies be Blu-ray friendly superhero or action films besides the fact that Blu-ray is now getting higher market share in the lagging genres. There are a total of nine action movies that have done over $100 M that will hit during the fall from the summer releases.

Add into the fact that the Disney decision to place the latest Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides release and perhaps Cars 2 on a 30 day head start for the Blu-ray+DVD combo versions over the DVD only skus and that all implies that Blu-ray performance has the potential to be much stronger this fall than it was last year in the similar high volume time period.


So yes indeed, I am personally looking forward to see the sales performance of Blu-ray this 4Q as well.




Here's the same list of the 100 M + titles performance to date 2011 vs 2010 in box office ranking without the genre sort.

Color coded to Blu-ray genre performance.

There is a lot more Blu-ray friendly superhero action stuff this year compared to last year's family animation and teen vampire being more prominent.


Code:
$325,789,000  Transformers: Dark of the Moon      
$274,182,000  Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2       
$252,160,717  The Hangover Part II        ,
$237,710,309  Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 
$209,276,125  Fast Five
$179,793,188  Thor
+$65,827,000+ Captain America: The First Avenger   
$176,445,000  Cars 2
$162,506,885  Bridesmaids
$160,458,602  Kung Fu Panda 2
$144,197,318  X-Men: First Class
$123,475,060  Super 8
$113,538,597  Green Lantern
+
+$94,355,000+  Bad Teacher
+$82,402,000+  Horrible Bosses
Code:

$415,004,880  Toy Story 3                               
$312,433,331  Iron Man 2                                 
$300,531,751  Twilight Saga: Eclipse                       
$292,568,851  Inception                                   
$251,203,225  Despicable Me                               
$238,736,787  Shrek Forever After                             
$217,581,231  How to Train Your Dragon                    
$162,001,186  Grown Ups      
$131,772,187  The Last Airbender                      
$119,219,978  The Other Guys                
$118,311,368  Salt    
$105,487,148  Robin Hood      
$103,068,524  The Expendables        


+ these that were close
 $95,347,692  Sex and the City 2            
 $90,759,676  Prince of Persia: Sands of Time
post #10009 of 11556
7/24/11 at 4:12pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by dcowboy7 View Post
Why did they --- the LOTR total instead of adding in week 1 ?

& why is it week 343....shouldnt they split this EE as a seperate release ?
It says it right there on the chart.

Quote:
Cumulative sales figures are provided for titles that were released after January 1, 2010.
The column for cumulative statistics is broken for titles that were released prior to the start of 2011. So they are not providing cumulative statistics I think for any title that was released prior to January 1, 2011 at the moment.

We can add it together easy enough as I did earlier in the thread I think.

They always count re releases like that from the date of the original release of that title so I would assume that 343 week refers to the first time the LOTR trilogy was released on DVD as an extended release.

They sometimes would split things up as a new version but since there was no new DVD version and its 'just" a new to Blu-ray re release I can understand their logic there.
post #10010 of 11556
7/24/11 at 4:12pm
Week ending 7/10/11 The-Numbers narrative up





Quote:
Blu-ray Sales: Holdovers Lord Above New Releases

Lord of the Rings: Extended Edition Trilogy remained on top of the Blu-ray sales chart this week selling 104,000 units / $5.08 million for the week.

It now has generated just over $30 million in sales in just two weeks, and even if you split that between the three movies, it's still an excellent run for a catalog title.

Sucker Punch remained in second place with 69,000 units / $1.25 million for the week, giving it totals of 335,000 units / $6.93 million after two.

13 Assassins opened in third place with 39,000 units / $700,000. Its opening week Blu-ray ratio of 43% was better than expected, while it generated more revenue from Blu-ray than it did from DVD.

Battle: Los Angeles remained in fourth place with 32,000 units / $716,000 for the week and totals of 506,000 units / $11.16 million after almost a month of release.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I climbed into fifth place with 31,000 units / $776.000 for the week and 2.86 million units / $64.23 million after three months of release. It remains the best-selling Blu-ray of the year.

The next best new release to chart was Hobo with a Shotgun, which placed seventh with 26,000 units / $481,000. Its opening week Blu-ray ratio was 47%, but it actually costs less on Blu-ray than it does on DVD, so that helped.

Of Gods and Men didn't even crack the top 30 on the DVD sales chart, but it placed 19th on the Blu-ray sales chart with 12,000 units / $318,000.

The overall Blu-ray market crashed back to earth down 49% in terms of units and 62% in terms of dollars. Ouch.

On the other hand, compared to last year sales were up 19% in terms of units and 43% in terms of dollars. DVD sales were not as strong, down a stunning 43% / 45% from last year.

With Blu-ray stronger than last year and DVD weaker, the Blu-ray ratio remained strong at 32% of total units and 43% of total revenue.

It will be interesting to see how well next week's Blu-ray crop will do and if Rango's abbreviated week will have a major impact. I'm optimistic.



- C.S.Strowbridge


Date posted: 2011-07-20

Movies
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Sucker Punch
Jûsan-nin no shikaku
Battle: Los Angeles
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I
Hobo with a Shotgun
Des Hommes et Des Dieux
http://www.the-numbers.com/interacti...hp?newsID=6402



Quote:
DVD Sales: New Releases Are Assassinated
New releases were dead on arrival on this week's DVD sales chart. None reached the top five, while only three reached the top 30. This left Sucker Punch in top spot, but with only 105,000 units / $1.58 million units for the week giving it totals of 381,000 units / $5.71 million after two. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I climbed into second place with 97,000 units / $1.44 million for the week, while its totals hit 5.24 million / $73.29 million after three months of release. It remains one of the few bright spots on the 2011 sales chart. Diary of A Wimpy Kid: Rodick Rules climbed a spot to third with 82,000 units / $1.45 million for the week. However, its running tallies of 564,000 units / $10.35 million are still lower than the original managed during its opening week of release. Season of the Witch fell to fourth place with 79,000 units / $1.26 million for the week and 344,000 units / $5.54 million after two. The less said about that DVD's performance the better. Meanwhile, Unknown climbed back into the top five with 68,000 units / $1.02 million, but since it has only sold 482,000 units and generated a mere $7.42 million after three weeks of release, it is incredibly disappointing on the home market.

The best new release of the week was Eureka: Season 4.0, which placed seventh with 60,000 units while its opening week sales were $1.15 million. I credit Felicia Day for that performance and I think her becoming a regular can only help the show with the coveted nerd demo (of which I'm a proud member). 13 Assassins opened in 12th place with 51,000 units / $565,000, which is good for a limited release. Likewise, Hobo with a Shotgun opened in 21st place with 30,000 units generating $534,000 during its opening week. This is more than it made in limited release, not counting its earlier performance in Canada.

One last DVD of note, Cars returned to the chart in 22nd place with 28,000 units. More notably, it recently crossed $250,000,000 in sales. It's been a while since a DVD has sold enough units to reach that milestone.


- C.S.Strowbridge


Date posted: 2011-07-19

Movies
Sucker Punch
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules
Season of the Witch
Unknown
Jûsan-nin no shikaku
Hobo with a Shotgun
Cars
http://www.the-numbers.com/interacti...hp?newsID=6397
post #10011 of 11556
7/24/11 at 4:13pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by dcowboy7 View Post
Why did they --- the LOTR total instead of adding in week 1 ?

& why is it week 343....shouldnt they split this EE as a seperate release ?
The total that The-Numbers is now reporting now for LOTR BD EE is 440,180 units sold and $30,295,063 in revenues generated in the last two weeks.

Code:
7/03/11 1 Lord of the Rings - The Motion Picture Trilogy  336,441          $25,212,889  - 342
7/03/11 1 Lord of the Rings - The Motion Picture Trilogy  103,739 -69.17%   $5,082,174  - 343

Code:
336,441          $25,212,889 LOTR week one
103,739           $5,082,174 LOTR week two
        
440,180       $30,295,063 LOTR Blu-ray YTD
post #10012 of 11556
7/24/11 at 5:45pm
It just seems wierd that they are using a dvd date on a bluray chart.

Theres a song "if i die young" by the band perry that last year spent about 36 weeks on the billboard county chart.

Now its a crossover hit & charting on the billboard pop chart & it says 8 weeks because they only count pop weeks & dont carry over the country weeks.

Using this charts methodology it would say 44 weeks which would be deceiving.

Wierd.
post #10013 of 11556
7/24/11 at 8:49pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by dcowboy7 View Post

It just seems wierd that they are using a dvd date on a bluray chart.

Theres a song "if i die young" by the band perry that last year spent about 36 weeks on the billboard county chart.

Now its a crossover hit & charting on the billboard pop chart & it says 8 weeks because they only count pop weeks & dont carry over the country weeks.

Using this charts methodology it would say 44 weeks which would be deceiving.

Wierd.

Well its consistent at least.

IIRC they did the same thing with the Back to the Future Trilogy.

HMM and Nielsen Videoscan have done the same thing in the past on the Top 20 Sellers chart when Blu-ray titles showed back up there and were not day and date with the DVD release.
post #10014 of 11556
7/25/11 at 1:01am
Quote:


Projections: ‘Rango’ Pushes For No. 1 Again
25 Jul, 2011
By: John Latchem



In its first full week in stores, Paramount’s animated hit Rango should have enough juice to top the sales chart again.

If any of the new releases usurps it for the week ending July 24, it would most likely be Fox’s thriller Limitless, a box office overperformer at $79.2 million domestically.

With Limitless among new releases delayed to kiosks by 28 days, Rango should also top the rental chart for the week, pushing the previous top rental, The Lincoln Lawyer, to No. 2.


Quote:


Projected Top 3 Sellers for Week Ending 7/24/2011

1 Rango Paramount 2

2 Limitless Fox New

3 Take Me Home Tonight Fox New

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...-1-again-24566
post #10015 of 11556
7/25/11 at 8:05am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Err... I meant that this is a list of summer releases that will hit the streets in the 4Q and is sorted by genre and current box office performance. In that sense I meant the phrase to be literal in that these are the major summer releases that we can look forward to seeing as coming up in the 4Q.


Now after saying that, in the sense that you took the phrase, I indeed am looking forward to the 4Q 2011 season and seeing the performance of these titles.

Last year the top 10 major box office performers that drove the 4Q revenues were dominated by animation and the Twilight teen vampire movie and only had two really most Blu-ray friendly action titles, Iron Man 2 and Inception in that group. Seven of the top 10 4Q releases from the summer movies were either family animation or comedies or the Twilight saga.

This year we will have six of the top ten movies be Blu-ray friendly superhero or action films besides the fact that Blu-ray is now getting higher market share in the lagging genres. There are a total of nine action movies that have done over $100 M that will hit during the fall from the summer releases.

Add into the fact that the Disney decision to place the latest Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides release and perhaps Cars 2 on a 30 day head start for the Blu-ray+DVD combo versions over the DVD only skus and that all implies that Blu-ray performance has the potential to be much stronger this fall than it was last year in the similar high volume time period.


So yes indeed, I am personally looking forward to see the sales performance of Blu-ray this 4Q as well.




Here's the same list of the 100 M + titles performance to date 2011 vs 2010 in box office ranking without the genre sort.

Color coded to Blu-ray genre performance.

There is a lot more Blu-ray friendly superhero action stuff this year compared to last year's family animation and teen vampire being more prominent.


Code:
$325,789,000  Transformers: Dark of the Moon      
$274,182,000  Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2       
$252,160,717  The Hangover Part II        ,
$237,710,309  Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 
$209,276,125  Fast Five
$179,793,188  Thor
+$65,827,000+ Captain America: The First Avenger   
$176,445,000  Cars 2
$162,506,885  Bridesmaids
$160,458,602  Kung Fu Panda 2
$144,197,318  X-Men: First Class
$123,475,060  Super 8
$113,538,597  Green Lantern
+
+$94,355,000+  Bad Teacher
+$82,402,000+  Horrible Bosses
Code:

$415,004,880  Toy Story 3                               
$312,433,331  Iron Man 2                                 
$300,531,751  Twilight Saga: Eclipse                       
$292,568,851  Inception                                   
$251,203,225  Despicable Me                               
$238,736,787  Shrek Forever After                             
$217,581,231  How to Train Your Dragon                    
$162,001,186  Grown Ups      
$131,772,187  The Last Airbender                       
$119,219,978  The Other Guys                
$118,311,368  Salt    
$105,487,148  Robin Hood      
$103,068,524  The Expendables        


+ these that were close
 $95,347,692  Sex and the City 2            
 $90,759,676  Prince of Persia: Sands of Time

The Last Airbender was not an animated movie. And Twilight is a teen vampire movie, but it is in a different category than the teen witch movie? You're really reaching on that one. They both sell a lot based on teen (or younger) viewers.

The biggest difference is that 4 animated movies made up the top ten last year, whereas this year only 2 animated movies are part of the top ten.
post #10016 of 11556
7/25/11 at 11:31am
It's great to see that Wal-mart will now provide it's information to Nielsen. I always wondered if the Wal-mart estimates were truly as accurate with the online sales of Blu-ray movies from Wal-mart as they were with the store sales. I'm not sure how big is the online market of Blu-ray movies for Wal-mart, but I'm happy to see that we'll find out soon enough.

Now if only Nielsen Video scan would be kind enough to publicly release the entire weekly Blu-ray/DVD unit sales along with the info they've been blessed with. They should keep spreading the joy
post #10017 of 11556
7/25/11 at 6:43pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarod M View Post

The Last Airbender was not an animated movie. And Twilight is a teen vampire movie, but it is in a different category than the teen witch movie? You're really reaching on that one. They both sell a lot based on teen (or younger) viewers.

The biggest difference is that 4 animated movies made up the top ten last year, whereas this year only 2 animated movies are part of the top ten.

Twilight is a different category in Blu-ray sales performance than the Harry Potter series which performs on Blu-ray like a superhero flick. Twilight series has skewed heavily toward DVD sales more than most action titles because if its teen female demographic skew. Which performs more like the romantic comedies in terms of Blu-ray market share performance.

I did screw up The Last Airbender though. That certainly is not animation.
post #10018 of 11556
7/26/11 at 5:47pm
Quote:
DVD Sales: Rango Wrangles Top Spot

Despite only coming out on Friday, Rango was the best new release and led the weekly DVD sales chart. From Friday through Sunday, the film sold 611,000 units while generating $9.77 million in sales.

The Lincoln Lawyer was in second place with 483,000 units / $7.46 million, which is not a bad start, for this type of film. Insidious was a little weaker with 318,000 units / $5.69 million for the week. On the other hand, the film cost just $1.5 million to make, so the studio should be happy.



Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I fell from second to fourth, despite growing from 106,000 units sold last week to 309,000 sold this week. In total, the film has sold 5.56 million units and generated $76.52 million in sales, and has a chance to become the biggest selling DVD of 2011, at least until the Christmas shopping season starts. (This year it begins September 13th, which seems even earlier than usual.) Rounding out the top five was Entourage: Season Seven with 140,000 units / $3.45 million.

Arthur was also released on Friday, so its hard to judge its opening. Over the weekend, it sold 100,000 units and generated $1.50 million in sales, which was enough for seventh place for the full week. The final new release of the week was Robot Chicken: Star Wars III, which placed 14th with 57,000 units / $602,000, which is not bad for a single-disc TV on DVD release.

One last note, Tangled has been out of the top five for a while now, but it is still plugging away and this week became the first DVD of 2011 to sell 6 million units. It should eventually reach the $100 million milestone in total revenue, but it will be a while.


- C.S.Strowbridge


Date posted: 2011-07-26

Movies
Rango
The Lincoln Lawyer
Insidious
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I
Arthur
Tangled

http://www.the-numbers.com/interacti...hp?newsID=6420


post #10019 of 11556
7/26/11 at 5:48pm
Quote:
DVD and Blu-ray Releases for July 26th, 2011

Summer time at the box office is amazing. From the first weekend in May till sometime in August, there is usually an average of one $100 million dollar movie released per week.

This year will have at least three months in a row with at least one $100 million film being released.

On the home market, on the other hand, the summer time is crap.

This year has been particularly tiresome, as the spring wasn't a fun time at the box office.

The biggest release of the week is Source Code, which was only a midlevel hit. On the one hand, it is one of the best-reviewed wide release of the year. On the other hand, neither the DVD nor the Blu-ray are exactly overloaded with extras.

http://www.the-numbers.com/interacti...hp?newsID=6418
post #10020 of 11556
7/26/11 at 6:02pm
Quote:
Amazon Q2 Income Declines 8%

26 Jul, 2011
By: Erik Gruenwedel, Chris Tribbey

North American sales of movies discs, downloads, music, books and video games increases 20%

Online retailer Amazon July 26 reported that North American sales of DVD and Blu-ray Disc movies, digital downloads, music CDs, books, video games, software and consoles increased 20% to nearly $1.6 billion for the second quarter (ended June 30) compared to $1.3 billion during the previous-year period.


The tally was about 16% below the first quarter, which totaled more than $1.8 billion in sales for home entertainment.

Total North American sales, which include electronics and general merchandise, topped $5.4 billion compared to $3.6 billion last year.

Worldwide media sales, which includes streaming, music, DVD and Blu-ray Disc, grew 27% to $3.66 billion, while worldwide electronics sales, with other general merchandise included, grew 69% to $5.89 billion.

When asked about the status of the Amazon Prime streaming service, founder and CEO Jeff Bezos, in an investor call, remained purposely vague, adding that there were numerous non-defined measurement points being analyzed on the service.

“It is very early right now and not a lot to share so far,” Bezos said. “We like what we’ve seen so far. We continue to focus on it.”

Amazon last week announced that its Prime loyalty customers would be the first to stream free TV shows from CBS’ library. The deal added 2,000 episodes to Prime’s portfolio of more than 8,000 movies and TV shows. Starting this summer, dozens of CBS shows also will become available to transactional VOD Amazon Instant Video customers.

The retailer posted revenue of $9.91 billion, compared to $6.57 billion during the second quarter of 2010, with a profit of $191 million, down 8% from $207 million.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/ama...clines-8-24600
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