Are manufactures putting themselves and me out of business ?

Wow, nobody is the US has the new JVC yet and you're already thinking about the next upgrade...

You've made a good point. Iterations beyond the HD-1/RS-1 will be pretty hard to notice, with the probable exception of light output. If you could get to 2000 lumens, that and a High Power would probably qualify as the sole viewing option with lots of ambient light. As far as the manufacturers go though, the 1080P cycle has barely begun, and FP has a big opportunity to expand from an enthusiast base to a broader mass market.

I think your safe Allen.
Presently a lot of buyers are waiting for 1080p to mature a bit before investing.
Low lumens is one of the things that have been groused about.
Some of the things that may be upgraded through the next few years are:
Longer bulb life.
Ability to do CIH (without the additional necessary equipage.)
User friendly adjustments to bring about a isf quality picture.
Might be interesting to see this last combined with new screen tech, to bring about that "looking out the window display".
And this is from a blazing newb.

Agreed. I think the final frontier (aside from true 3D) is light output. I would guess that the major manufacturer focus over the next few years (once everyone catches up with JVC) will be making projectors bright enough to realistically be considered as flat-panel TV alternatives.

If the JVC is as good as it sounds, I don't see myself upgrading again until I can get the same picture quality...but with the lights on.

-tony

And that's way it should be. TV's have gotten way too complicated. Of course, I do realize that that's simply growing pains while shedding the NTSC, low-def childhood. But just like the internet browser should be part of the O.S., video processing and scaling should be part of the TV.

If I get the RS1 or if I wait the next big thing that would make me jump will be LED or laser illumination so I can really start using it as often as I like and not worrying about lamp starts and lamp costs.. Don't lose hope Alan, there will always be a place and a market for AVS (honest, fair and great service)

It seems that part is already underway, given the upcoming plans of the big Denons and others. It would also eliminate (already has in many cases) the need for the switcher, as the AVR's already do that as well. Incorporate a good quality VP into a high end Denon and you are down to your one box w/ one wire to PJ solution. I don't really think it's that far off. Right now I have a 2-box solution (VP50 and Denon 4806) which will most likely turn into 1-box soon.

More lumens is the final upgrade path and it always will be. Even if you like a dark image you can still benefit from more lumens and a gray screen.

Alan, until Walmart has 1080p 3000 lumen 10,000:1 projectors on sale for $899, your job is safe.

-Mr. Wigggles

Here are some things I think folks want.

1) More light output, and less fall-off of brightness through at least the first half of bulb life.

2) Faster Start up times.

3) Simple calibration software.

4) Multiple HDMI inputs (eliminating the need for that switcher you mentioned).

5) Faster response times for DILA (DLP still wins here for fast action, sports and games), better faster color wheels for DLP, or cheaper 3 chip DLP.

6) Simple, automatic convergence settings for DILA, and 3 chip DLP.

7) Quieter projectors.

8) Less heat output.

9) Ability to adjust image height for 2:xx within the 16:9 panel.

10) More contrast, without a Iris.

Alan,

I do not think the yearly upgraders were ever the "masses".

I waited about six years to move from the LT-150 to the Pearl, and now I am thinking about moving to the RS-1 on the prebuy list.

With prices coming down on the projectors that take you to the 98% or so level (anything better is chasing the last two percent...) I think that you might find more people upgrading and more people buying more projectors.

Right now, a tiny fraction of people have one projector in their house, and only a tiny percentage of that tiny percentage have two projectors in their house (actually set up, working, and in use).

I bet that as prices of high quality come down, and negatives come down, more poeple will not only get their first projector, but more people will put up a second projector, instead of having a second TV. More Projectors for kids video games in their rooms, more projectors for Joe (and Joe Ann) sixpack. More projectors for everybody.

The future is bright. Feel good and be happy.

Doug

Somehow I think AVS is doing just fine

What a difference the internet must have made to a upstate NY based projector dealer, your a real success story, congrats!

Greater installation flexibility and convenience:

- Large zoom range (or multiple lenses or adaptors)

- Large horizontal and vertical lens shift

- Wireless connectivity

Brighter, quieter, and longer life and/or cheaper lamps would all have major appeal as well.

Brent

1.) More Lumen. With these great contrast ratios even a bright projector won't make the blacks "light grey". With real HD resolutions the screens will get larger and larger, requiring more light. I would love to see a "RS-1 like" projector with at least twice the light output. The more, the better. You can always add an iris or a grey filter if it is too bright. Or wear sunglasses.

2.) Better lamp technology (more reliable, less heat output). Whatever this might be - laser, LEDs, dunno.

You are right to worry about these kinds of things but we are not there yet.

All products eventually become commodities. You should plan on this happening with projectors. There is still a lot of innovation in the projector world. So long as this continues to occur, your business is safe. People in this thread have already pointed out things they would upgrade for: non-lamp solutions, high lumens, and more flexible mounting options are just a few of these things.

However, the day will come where projectors are a commodity just like the old CRT tv or the computer. The commodity market is defined by small profit margins and high volumes. Try to forsee when this will happen and change your business to be in a position to compete when it does happen. It may be five years away. It may be more. You are extremely well positioned. Don't let the market pass you by.

I agree 100%. My lamp just blew on Saturday night. A light source that has a stable lumen output for thousands of hours will push many to upgrade.

I agree with all your points except this one. I don't think most people are going to want to run 3 or 4 20+ foot HDMI cables to their projector. I think most will want the switching done in the AVR allowing one cable to the PJ. A pj with one HDMI input could sell for 100-200$ less than one with 3 or 4 and I suspect people would rather save the moneh.

I think it's great that projectors will get to a point where you can keep one for ten years. It's about fricking time!...Do you actually think people "want" to buy new projectors every year?...Hell, I wish they would come out with 1.3 everything I want right now so I can have it all and never need to buy any av equipment ever again. Heck...I wish there were no middle men at all. I wish I could buy direct from the factory and get a great deal!...Heaven forbid salesmen would have to actually go get a real job and actually "work" (like me). IMHO

I think as the hardware is improving and cost continues to drop will make this type of quality more available to the masses. Also, as new housing develops going forward we will see dedicated rooms for Home Theater as standard and not necessarily upgrades. Margins may get smaller but quantity should make up for it.

Now I agree that light output is important to many people but I don't feel it is the holy grail. I think as the hardware gets less expensive, developers can spend more money on the optics. I think with current hardware, if you improve the optics you could potentially see vastly improved images. Of course this is only my humble opinion.

Who are you kidding Alan? Your business is very safe for a couple of reasons. First, most of the people you sell to are audio/video addicts or equipment junkies. If it is new and has better specs, real or not, then they want it. Second, when digital finally does full fade to black everyone here and over on the CRT section will be making plans to upgrade and you won't have time to watch any movies you'll be so busy. Also, as the prices keep falling and the picture quality keeps getting better then front projectors will become more mainstream and you'll be run off your feet.

Cheers,

Grant

The one thing I don't look forward to: Great 3-chip projectors that are so cheap that any jerk can afford one (sorry to sound elitist).

What are we going to show-off to our friends?

TA

On the original topic, I'd offer the projector market has hit its peak or is just about too.

Its not just the improved quality of projectors that will cause it to limit growth, but large direct view LCD and Plasmas getting bigger with dropping prices. In the past a projector was the only option for a large screen, but now thats changed.

The niche market here may continue to grow, as AVS is very unique on the net as 'the' information resource something that very few sites can claim, but overall the percentage of those using a projector for large screen viewing will drop.

I think alot of people come to the forums here and dont even know that AVS sells equipment. If you could somehow post products and prices like BH Photovideo does online, they seem exempt from normal internet ad rules, with your traffic and reputation, I cant imagine the sales it could generate.

Lower prices and steadily lower margins are a fact of life for all electronics (and computer) resellers. Installation and services are always the great differentiators.

Marc

I like Cain's list. I would single out:

1. Quieter
2. Cooler
3. Higher ANSI

I'm sure my RS1 will be adequate in these areas. But if the next version hit a real homer *any* of these areas (like, *dead* quiet) I'd be pulling out my credit card again.

I agree with most of the posters here, especially about higher light output and longer life light source.

One thing that has not been mentioned and I think is a large obstacle to wider adoption of projectors is the connectivity issues. I have had a number of people visit my HT and really get excited about the possibility of installing one in their den or game room. The mass of wires currently needed to connect the projector to their existing DVD player, cable box, etc. seems to be the biggest issue. A reasonable priced VP.concentrator with wireless connectivity will broaden the base of projector users as much as any other technology improvement.

Broadening the base of users will generate more future business than relying on upgrading existing users with the ever declining price of the technology.

Don't worry Alan, as long as my eyes hold out, you can count on me.

Alan how much for a 3D Holographic projector say 16k res? It has to be lifelike for me with no screen to worry about.

I would'nt worry about not being able to sell anything for quite some time.

Dale

Bigger wallet...

I'll upgrade for these:

CRT blacks
2160p
2000 lumens
better/longer life light source
shoe box size