Andy Parson's Soap Box! War Over in 3-4 Months??!! - Page 2

Fa,


They tell me a couple of things. One, HD sales are lagging because of the limited number of new releases which is a problem.

BD is enjoying a sales increase due in part to the PS3 and the sale that is going on. However, I dont think the sales increase will last for a couple of reasons. First, when interesting games come out, I think there will be a reallocation of money from movies to games, which will decrease sales. Second, the intital buying boom one has with the purchase of a player will subside.

The sale has only existed for 3 days. HD-DVD has been getting killed for the past 8 weeks or so...long before the sale. I see no reason why the PS3 won't continue to sell well, and going by what people are saying about attach rates, PS3 isn't going to be losing any movie sales to games since hardly any of those people are buying movies anyway (or so I'm told). As such, I don't see how HD-DVD is going to survive, much less prosper.

fa,


It isnt selling that well right now. I dont know the Feb numbers, but they were 4th in January with only 250K units sold in NA.,


Well, I think that the percentage of people who bought the PS3 as a dedicated BD player is low, I do think that probably 25-30% of the owners have picked up a movie or two. I think that many of those will decrease their consumption when more games come out.

I think the gentleman from Paramount is confused as to what TotalHDs capacity will be. At CED Warner stated that both formats would have full capacity, dual-layer on both sides. See link below. About 2/3 down.

http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/09/l...ss-conference/

250K? That's probably 5-10 times the number of HD-DVD players sold in the same time period.

Decrease consumption? How do you decrease consumption from 1-2 movies? And you don't think some of those people who haven't bought a movie are going to buy a few?

The latest sales numbers are from February 25, well before the start of the amazon sale.

Ok, stupid question (I ask those a LOT), would most people say "early adopters" are or are not representative of the overall population? Call me stupid, but I'd think by being an "early adopter" that this group does not represent (fully) the tastes of the larger population . . . if they did, they wouldn't be early adopters, right? Or is my thinking all whacked out. Ok, let's assume that we can assume that early adopter behavior is (at least in some dimensions) different from mass adopter behavior. Safe bet? Ok then, if so called "mass adopters" go see the aforementioned blockbuster films in the theater, and Blu-ray has the majority of releases coming out this year for theatrical release, is it really safe to assume that "mass adopter" theater consumption/behavior is the same as "early adopter" theater consumption/behavior? Or said differently, are early adopters interested in the same kinds/types of movies as mass adopters?

In purely annecdotal observation (no data what-so-ever), it seems to me that a lot of the movie afictionados (sp?) around here love the classic movies or cult movies or indie films or european movies, etc. So, in that context, does having a lot of current content being released on Blu-ray actually HELP the BRA in terms of adoption rates of the hardware and attach rates of the software? I understand that once we hit the mass adoption phase (i.e., under $200) this will matter, but does it right now?

I think a lot of people are connecting a LOT of dots that don't necessarily (or that we cannot know) connect.

fa,


Sales of PS3 compared to HD DVD players are irrelevant. You said the PS3 was selling well. I pointed out that it isnt selling well.


Well, if you believe the BD fanboys, what drives sales is mostly the big blockbusters. So, once those run out, then no I wouldnt expect them to buy many more movies.

Grubert and FA,

Read what I said, I said in part due to the sale. As a couple of threads indicated there was a spike in the sales ratio in the last week - during the sale.

Well, if PS3s aren't selling well, then HD DVD is definitely in trouble. BD sales jumped after the PS3 came out. If that is from a poor-selling PS3, I would hate to see a great-selling PS3. The BD:HD DVD ratio would be devastating! (it isn't now, so no worries)


Maybe, but in the meantime, more PS3s will be bought and even with that low of an attachment rate, BD sales will continue to rise.

A great way to increase HD DVD sales is to sell more players (cheap ones!).

Early adopters are considered bizzarro mutants, and not representative of the general public.
J

That unless Toshiba/MS/Unknown Chinese HD-DVD player sales bring HD-DVD back into parity with BD discs sales by the end of the year that Paramount will have a clear choice to back BD exclusively or sooner.

b2b

You beat me to it...

Baronken,


They arent selling well, and the numbers show that. If it were selling well one wouldnt expect it be fourth, now would you?



.

HD has some issues, but I think they are largely unrelated to the PS3, which I dont count as that significant a factor.



True, but there are a couple of things to consider. How long will it last? When you buy a new gadget, there is a buying spree that goes with it. Second, the jump wasnt that big if you think the PS3 is that big a factor. If you consider the PS3 to be a significant factor then you would expect, given the roughly million or so PS3's bought in NA that the increase would be larger.


Again, I dont see it as a huge factor. If a PS3 owner buys one or two movies that isnt a big deal to the studios, because they are looking for a revenue stream, they are looking to sell their catalog titles again. All the fanboys around here are stating that the important things are the Blockbusters. So if the only movies that PS3 owners buy are the blockbusters, then they are a marginal issue in the outcome.

That's the point: you will need triple layer on the HD-DVD side to get to the 50G he's referring to.

At some point? Sadly it's as much perception as it is facts anymore

Cheers,

I think in the ballpark is good, say 3:2 split for the two is fine. Going much above that and it really starts to tip.

Cheers,

That was my understanding as well but perhaps Paramount is in a better position to know than we are.

In any event, if you think that the format war may be ending soon, THD would not be something you want to get into. Manufacturing the more expensive THD disks for a non-existent market would be a bad idea. Paramount can always gracefully reduce the number of disks for the losing format.

In the current situation, it is for the same reason surprising that Warners would go ahead with THD for the same reasons.

It's important to remember that Warner has IP in HD DVD. Further, they have almost all the IP in THD. The perfect way for this format war to end up, from Warner's point of view, is for every studio to use THD. That way they get the royalties from every disc, even if it is a Sony movie played on a PS3.

Uh, I don't know about Hawaii, but here in Socal, there are still supply problems with the retailers. I still see some stores that are sold of PS3s and Amazon still does not have a supply of PS3s. When they get them, it is usually gone within days.



What issues are you referring to?



How can you NOT consider the PS3 a significant factor? I am an avid gamer and I have already brought 10 BD movies and this after owning the system for 2 weeks. I will not be buying another bluray or HDDVD player again for a while. If everyone PS3 owner brought 1 movie, that is almost 1.2 Million more discs sold than HDDVD.

Plasma,


Well, in both Hawaii, and Texas before I moved, there were plenty of 60GB ps3s. Every store had quite a few of them. Admittedly, the 20GB version was harder to find, but you could still find them.


A month or so of no new releases.


How can I not, well, you and the other people here are not really the norm. I have no doubt that there are PS3 owners that have bought lots of movies. But I am also pretty sure that that number is rather small, otherwise BD disc sales would be a lot higher than they are. Yes, some of the increase in BD disc sales in recent weeks is due to PS3 owners, but they are a distinct minority.


And you just proved my point. They havent, and there is no reason to believe that they will. One more time, yes some PS3 owners buy movies, and yes some PS3 owners probably buy lots of movies. But they are a small small number

And a lot of those were coupon purchases, and more will be sale price purchases. It would be nice to know how many are subsidized, cos when the subsidies come off.....

Wayne,


True, but I think it all washes out. I mean 2 weeks ago, I almost bought the Tosh A2 at BB because I would have gotten 9 free HD DVDs. BB had any 4 HD DVDs of your choice, and Toshiba is giving away 5 HD DVDs.

While I stood there thinking about it, 2 people picked up players. I have my doubts that they would have done so without the offer.

So the subsidies are a wash.

Can we stick to discussing issues brought up in the article instead?!?

HD DVD boys have no good news to back them up.

No, but the possibility of munching on deep-fried crow is a certainty for one side or the other.

Nothing remarkable really. It's too early to say one way or another.

There it is again...

Comparing PS3 sales directly with HD DVD stand alone sales is erroneous, and the software sales reflect that.

When the HD DVD of 'The Departed' (for example) sells about 2/3 as many copies as the Blu Ray version, yet the total number of PS3 systems is a multiple of the installed HD DVD player base, that should tell you everything you need to know.

How can you make the leap in logic to compare PS3 systems directly with HD DVD players unless you are pushing an agenda or only seeing what you want to see irrespective of the facts?

Counting every PS3 sold as a Blu Ray user is just a numbers game that the BDA and their followers play in hopes of scaring others away from HD DVD.

HD DVD is not about to die, but I'll be damned if it does not appear that the BDA is desperate for that to happen.

Sean,

Actually counting every PS3 as a BD player in one respect hurts BD because it shows how low actual sales of discs are. For example Hollywood reporter just indicated that for the first week, The Departed sold 23K discs on BD and 15K discs on HD.

If each PS3 player is actually a BD player, then the sales figures for BD are appaling.

See, the problem is that you can't count the PS3 the same as a standalone player (for several reasons, not the least of which is that many if not most were sold to people with out HDTVs), and yet you can't discount it either because the number sold is more than all of the other standalone players of both formats put together.

It's why the attach rate numbers are pretty meaningless, it's an apples to oranges comparison.

There's nothing erroneous about it. The PS3 plays BD discs.

Seeing what I want to see? The reputable data says there are more Blu-ray players in homes, and BD discs outsell HD-DVD discs. There's nothing else to see.