Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 
Did you just make that 2 per month up, or do you actually have numbers to back it up? HD DVD should have over 200k players by now. If they were selling 2 per player per month on average then that would be 400k discs per month, or over 90k discs per week. Yet the Videoscan/Nielsen numbers come out to more like 25k per week average or even less and less than 700k discs since inception.
Even just going with HD DVD having 30k players installed by September (when Robert said they had sold 70k), 8.4 discs sold per player that Toshiba reported would be 252k discs. Then another 6 months of ownership at the rate you mentioned would be another 360k discs just for those owners. That is over 600k discs just for 30k players, which wouldn't leave many sales spread out of the other 145k+ players Toshiba said were sold by the end of 2006, or the players sold in 2007. Yes, I know there is some rounding and other issues, but I don't see how you can support your claim of 2 per player per month with disc sales at even close to what we've heard from that Paramount consultant or these sources that track sales.
Please show us your math if you want us to believe that the annualized attach rate has been over 24 up to now.
--Darin
Did you just make that 2 per month up, or do you actually have numbers to back it up? HD DVD should have over 200k players by now. If they were selling 2 per player per month on average then that would be 400k discs per month, or over 90k discs per week. Yet the Videoscan/Nielsen numbers come out to more like 25k per week average or even less and less than 700k discs since inception.
Even just going with HD DVD having 30k players installed by September (when Robert said they had sold 70k), 8.4 discs sold per player that Toshiba reported would be 252k discs. Then another 6 months of ownership at the rate you mentioned would be another 360k discs just for those owners. That is over 600k discs just for 30k players, which wouldn't leave many sales spread out of the other 145k+ players Toshiba said were sold by the end of 2006, or the players sold in 2007. Yes, I know there is some rounding and other issues, but I don't see how you can support your claim of 2 per player per month with disc sales at even close to what we've heard from that Paramount consultant or these sources that track sales.
Please show us your math if you want us to believe that the annualized attach rate has been over 24 up to now.
--Darin
Like I've been saying for awhile now, you guys are all too hung up on what Nielsen is reporting, and you refuse to listen when someone tells you Nielsen only accounts for a very small piece of the pie.
I'll say it again, Nielsen is only capturing about 25-30% of what studios are actually selling (they are low for BD numbers too). So your tracking of 25k discs per week at Nielsen is relating to 100k HD-DVD sales per week and more on good weeks. HD-DVD is selling roughly 500k copies a month in 2007 (lower for February ~425,000, but it was three days shorter too) Now I'm sure you will attempt to use the same old arguements to discredit the info, so go ahead. Feel free to live the delusion.
I don't know the actual hardware numbers sold, but I was estimating around 200-225k, which means HD-DVD is seeing ~2 discs sold per player per month (the number would be closer to 200k for the end of Jan and 225k for the end of Feb.
So to break this hard math down for you, since you asked. If each player sells 2 discs per month on average. After 12 months, 24 discs would have sold for each player, on average. 2 x 12 = 24 annualized attach rate for 2007.
Now how is this "poor" sales?
